Hugh Hewitt (4:44)

Well, I think you put your finger on something that a few people have said over the course of the past month, is that there's a war within a war. There's a battle within a war. The war is Cold War 2.0 with China, and the battle within the war is with Iran. And before the action, before the battle was Venezuela, and during and after the battle is Cuba. But it all fits into superpower competition, which is back. And it never went away. We just pretended not to notice it after the Berlin Wall fell and our dividend, our peace dividend for a long period of time. But if those three things turn out and it's providential, we're reading the Gathering Storm because a lot of hoped for things don't turn out the way that we hope for them. But if they turn out, we'll talk about best case and worst cases, the strategic position of the United States vis a vis China will be immeasurably improved. I keep saying on Fox, I think I've said it four times now, the world is a much better place today, 15, 16, 19 days, whenever I show up, than it was 15, 16, 19 days ago, because it is, because Iran's much weaker and Venezuela isn't run by Maduro. It's better to have those results than not to have those results. If you're an American,

Dr. Larry Arne (6:01)

if you can afford them. People are war weary. And Trump's supporters, many of them, have defected, and I understand that we've had very ambitious wars in the Middle east, including to build democracy there, and they don't work out very well, and they cost a lot of money and the situation is bad after they're over. It looks to me like Trump has more limited war aims here, which means more reasonable, probably. And I think that we will, you know, like I think reading today what he said last night and this morning, I think we might just declare victory. And everybody's saying, what's his end game? Right? We're going to send boots on the ground and open the Straits of Hormuz. I wouldn't, you know, I'm. I can only guess. I bet he doesn't know right now because he's weighing factors and they're changing every day. But I could see him just declaring victory and going home. And Iran is weaker than it was two weeks ago. And he could do that and say, we can come back if we have to. The fishers in the NATO allowance alliance are very deep and obvious. Now. France is apparently, it's in the paper this morning, appealing to Iran to negotiate with them, for Iran to protect its tankers and its oil coming to it through the Straits of Hormuz. And so there's an open breach there, but that's matched and I don't know.

Hugh Hewitt (7:33)

Next segment, I intend to ask you. I think this may be the beginning of the end of NATO, and I'm not given to overly dramatic statements, but the failure to show up and the separate peace negotiation, it's not how an alliance works. But Macron is a lame duck. He doesn't represent France. I don't think Keir Starmer represents Great Britain. But to stay for a moment on the fact that the Marines are going from an meu, and you've got Marines all over that place up at Hilltail, and you bring in the former commandant and you bring in my old friend and they give lectures and you generate a lot of Marines and other people for the services up there, 2,500 Marines in an MEU and all the sporting crap. They can do a lot of different things. They could go to Carg island, they could take up positions on the Iranian side of the Strait. They could go off of Yemen and menace them. They can do a lot of things. I also, I also don't think it would be a bad thing if we just pounded them for four more weeks or eight weeks from the air so that there is very little left to make war with and then dare them to close the straits because if they hit a ship, we'll have to do something else, like you said, option.

Dr. Larry Arne (8:45)

And here's a, See, there's a, there's a strain of thought that's legitimate and big and it is. The original foreign policy of the United States avoided long term alliances and avoided involvements in the world outside the Western hemisphere. The Monroe Doctrine. But that itself, by the way, was built on an alliance with the British and their navy which agreed with the thing and helped us to enforce the Monroe Doctrine. There's always been alliances. We've been reluctant about them. And we were off here by ourselves, on a continent by ourselves. And we were very keen to get control of the continent, which we did. And that was a major achievement to extend free government across that vast land. When they started out with the intention to do that, they didn't know how big the continent was. They'd never traversed it. That was a whole human generation later that they achieved that with Lewis and Clark. So one train of thought is we don't have to worry about the Straits of Hormuz. And I will just say there's something to that. We are an oil independent power. Trump appealed for help to police the straits and open them up to the people who really are dependent on it. And all of them have declined. And you know, so there's an argument for, okay, we don't want Iran to be a nuclear power with long range guided missiles that can reach us and we don't want that.

Hugh Hewitt (10:25)

Right.

Dr. Larry Arne (10:25)

And so we are taking steps to prevent that. But maybe we don't care as much about the straight deform moves. That's a question to be open

Hugh Hewitt (10:35)

does involvement. It does involve the price of oil though, since oil is an international market and it's close to $100 a barrel today as we're talking on Wednesday for airing on Friday. I'll be right back with Dr. Arn. Stay tuned.

Scott Bertram (10:52)

Hey there, it's Scott Bertram, host of the Radio Free Hillsdale Hour. On this week's program, we talk with Dr. Kathleen O', Toole, Associate Vice President for K12 Education at Hillsdale College. She'll tell us about the importance of education informing citizen and her recent essay Citizenship Starts in the classroom. And Dr. Marty Billman, Associate professor of chemistry here at Hillsdale returns for another series on drama in scientific discovery. This time we begin our discussion about the discovery of fire. All that this week on the radio Free Hillsdale Hour. Find it at podcast hillsdale. Edu or wherever you get your audio.

Narrator/Announcer (11:39)

Charlie Kirk understood that before he could lead, he needed to learn. He didn't need a degree, but he

Dr. Larry Arne (11:46)

did need a teacher.

Narrator/Announcer (11:47)

Hillsdale College was there to teach him wherever and whenever he wanted to learn. Charlie took many of Hillsdale's free online courses studying the classics, the American founding and the Bible. And you can learn like Charlie at Hillsdale. Edu Network. That's Hillsdale. Edu Network. Charlie Kirk strengthened his knowledge and courage by studying the greatest thinkers, writers and leaders of history, all with Hillsdale College. Visit Hillsdale. Edu Network and you too can learn like Charlie. That's Hillsdale Edu Hills Network.

Hugh Hewitt (12:38)

Welcome back, America. I'm Hugh Hewitt. I always send outlines of these programs for the Hillsdale dialogues. All things hillsdalesdale. Edu, including your application, including the opportunity to sign up for inprimis. They have a brand new course on rhetoric available on the Hillsdale online courses, which I recommend to you. All things is Hillsdale at Hillsdale. Edu. All of our prior dialogue hueforhillsdale.com but before I sit down with Dr. Ahn, send him an outline. And here the outline says best case, worst case of the war with Iran. How do you put the best and the worst on the table? Dr. Arn?

Dr. Larry Arne (13:16)

Well, the best case would be regime change if the people of Iran managed to make it. I don't think we can. I don't even think we're going to try. What we're doing is ruthlessly eliminating senior leadership. And the what, irgc, Republican Guard. And that might make an opening. That would be a good case. And a good case would be Iran was not an irresponsible, dangerous power anymore. That's the best case scenario. I don't know if we should expect that right now. I also don't think we depend on it. You know, cleaning up the whole world is going to take a long time and then it'll still be messy after that. Probably. Another good thing that's happening is although NATO is very shaky, the Gulf states are very strong. They don't like this, these Iranians, right? And, and, you know, Qatar and Saudi Arabia and all of them, they've got, you know, they've got plenty of problems of their own, but their course has been to modernize, make the place tourist attractions. They like, you know, Especially Qatar. They like people coming. Right. And so they're being attacked by Iran and Iran is hostile to them. So we've got some allies there.

Hugh Hewitt (14:42)

Yeah.

Dr. Larry Arne (14:42)

I read

Hugh Hewitt (14:44)

one of my favorite British Prime Ministers is Palmerston, and one of his favorite sayings was, Britain has no permanent allies nor enemies, only permanent interests. The same applies to us. And our interests are in the Middle east with those who stand with us. And if our old allies aren't our old allies anymore, that's over and we just got to deal with it.

Dr. Larry Arne (15:04)

That's right. I hope and think that we're. You know, there's an argument that's, you know, a progressive era argument that's been very powerful in both Republican and Democratic administrations since the Progressive era and up to recent. And the argument is if we make the whole world free, then at last there'll be peace in the world. And, you know, that's obviously a wonderful ambition. It's got some logical problems with it. One of them is the limit power from outside. Another one is, can you run a free country for somebody else? The British Empire, which, you know, lasted a long time and was everywhere and was very successful, it's the core of it, soon became a bunch of free countries that were, on their own initiative, loyal to the Crown. And the alliance was Britain. And the one big trouble spot was India. And that never did quite work out for them. Churchill.

Hugh Hewitt (16:05)

Part of it, I might all said, was reformed Christianity, was it not? It was not evangelical, but it was by almost happenstance, evangelicalism and the common law came with the British Empire.

Dr. Larry Arne (16:19)

Yeah. And see if you can't make the whole world into a friend. And I personally have never believed that we could do that. And I don't believe the founders of our country believed that. In fact, I know they didn't. They certainly said to the contrary. Let's put it that way. Then it means that we're going to live in a dangerous world and we need to be smart and cagey and we shouldn't look for utopian solutions. And so it's possible that what comes out of this is that we get out of there in a couple of weeks and the place is still a mess. But now Iran is a weaker part.

Hugh Hewitt (16:56)

I'm giving us until. The best case is we're out of there by the end of May with whatever follows. And there are grades on that. Worst case, we have an enduring presence and a base in Iran that can be threatened. Do you agree with me about that?

Dr. Larry Arne (17:12)

Yeah. Everything is a prudential matter. Right. In other words, let's say that there's a revolt and a friendly government is established and they ask us to stay and offer us money to stay. Well, we'd certainly listen to an offer like that. But it depends, right? If you start with thinking through the interests of the United States of America, which are the proper concern of its government, its people, their, their interests, then you know, you're going to have to be smart because look, we, we, China, if we were fighting China right now there's a Heritage foundation did a big AI powered war game us in China and it's being published now. I think what it shows is against China, we run out of bullets in three weeks.

Hugh Hewitt (18:06)

Yep.

Dr. Larry Arne (18:06)

By bullets, I mean sophisticated stuff can actually do something on a modern battlefield. I think we have some exciting new weapons coming and I think some of them are even deployed in Iran. But look at, look at the position we're in. See, we're in the world is very dangerous, including very dangerous for us. And I don't, you know, I don't think that's going to go away anytime soon. But look, we've got what we've got 11 or 12 aircraft carrier groups and they are the greatest mobile assemble assemblage of power in human history. And maybe they're not safe anymore.

Hugh Hewitt (18:51)

Alas, with the retirement of the Nimitz, we're down to 10. And alas, they may not be what we thought they were, but, but they have not yet been touched. I'll be right back with Dr. Arne. Don't go anywhere. The Hillsdale Dialogue continues. Welcome back, America. Dr. Larry Orn is with me. All right, I left the shortest segment of our Hillsdale Dialogue. All things hillsdalesdale. Edu and all of the Hillsdale Dialogues are found@hughforhilsdale.com we have spent the better part of a year in the 1930s watching Britain prepare or not prepare for war. France prepare wrongly for war. And we're going to spend a lot of time on Churchill's memoirs going forward. But Dr. Arne, Britain and France have not been the allies that we were to them in their two struggles in the 20th century. And I for one am deeply disappointed. And I wonder, like Lindsey Graham out loud, does NATO go on after this? What do you think?

Dr. Larry Arne (19:46)

Well, it needs to be in the interest of the United States of America. And is it, it needs to show that it can contribute because when, you know, let's say I believe that we need allies. I think we're outnumbered as we have for most been for most of American history. And the oceans are not as wide as they used to be. And so let's say you need allies. Well, what are the criteria? You need allies who can fight. You need allies who are unlikely to, for deep reasons, to join your worst enemies. And I'm not sure that those European nations meet that criteria. All of them, maybe none of them. Poland and, and Hungary, probably Finland is

Hugh Hewitt (20:35)

among the ones we could count on, maybe Sweden.

Dr. Larry Arne (20:39)

Germany has been closer because Germany is a big country and Germany has been closer to us in this thing. But they're not helping. And I don't, you know, I don't know that I blame them. You know, Trump is very bold, right? And he's, he's got, he's got gumption. Boy, does he not? And so he hasn't gone into this with the statement, I'm going to remake the Middle East. He has said that might happen. It depends on people in Iran and in the region. But what he's doing is weakening Iran. And I believe it's connected to China. And, you know, North Korea is a crazy regime and has nuclear weapons that can reach some American territory by missiles. And that's very dangerous. One would have to guess that the Iranian regime would be more dangerous.

Hugh Hewitt (21:32)

I think it is. Let me, let me give you the argument why North Korea is a fanatical despotism run by one man and his family and they have nuclear weapon. Iran is a theological end times driven, millennial, millenarian driven eschatology. And that's a lot more dangerous because they got a vision of the after times that involves chaos and the hidden imam emerging from the well. And that's not good for anybody.

Dr. Larry Arne (22:02)

No. Well, it's good for the imam, I guess. But if you know it, it's. And you know, the thing, you know, like the argument being made by some important people who've been close to Trump, the important people with large audiences, has been, he promised no more war. I'm not sure that he ever did that. But if he did that, he was big, he was being foolish because that's not entirely in our hands. And we don't know enough to know if this war is going to make sense. But if it weakens Iran for an intermediate term of time at the cost that we've paid so far, then that's a gain. You got to weigh that out.

Hugh Hewitt (22:47)

He came down the escalator in 2015, he said a few things and people remember the wall. But he also said Iran can't have a nuclear weapon and the JCPOA is the worst deal that's ever been done. And he had said about Iran not having nuclear weapon repeatedly for decades before he got into politics. He thought we were being embarrassed by this. This is sort of one of the few through lines of his career is that Iran's a dangerous place and they can't have nuclear weapons. I don't think he ever said he would not bomb Iran. In fact, I think he said the opposite.

Dr. Larry Arne (23:18)

Yeah, I don't, you know, people might have heard and you know, he was very critical of these forever wars. And I was too at the time. He was too at the time just because I thought how exactly are you going to do that? You know, I mean, the British, what Churchill believed was that if the British had hung on in India, that there had been huge progress in India and there's a democratic government in a free self government, consent of the governed government in India today. And that is inspired by the British Empire experience. So that's a very long term deal. And Britain is a different country

Hugh Hewitt (24:02)

about 250 years to go from the kingdoms, the many kingdoms of India to the right honorable country company to the the British Empire. I'll be right back, America. Stay tuned with Dr. Arnold, all things Hilltail at Hilltail. Edu.

Narrator/Announcer (24:21)

Charlie Kirk understood that before he could lead, he needed to learn. He didn't need a degree, but he

Dr. Larry Arne (24:28)

did need a teacher.

Narrator/Announcer (24:30)

Hillsdale College was there to teach him wherever and whenever he wanted to learn. Charlie took many of Hillsdale's free online courses, studying the classics, the American founding and the Bible. And you can learn like Charlie at Hillsdale. Edu Network. That's Hillsdale Edu Network. Charlie Kirk strengthened his knowledge and courage by studying the greatest thinkers, writers and leaders of history, all with Hillsdale College. Visit Hillsdale Edu Network and you too can learn like Charlie. That's Hillsdale Edu Network.

Scott Bertram (25:25)

Hey there, it's Scott Bertram, host of the Radio Free Hillsdale Hour. On this week's program, we talk with Dr. Kathleen O', Toole, Associate Vice President for K12 Education at Hillsdale College. She'll tell us about the importance of education informing citizens and her recent essay citizenship Starts in the classroom. And Dr. Marty Billman, Associate professor of chemistry here at Hillsdale, returns for another series on drama in scientific discovery. This time we begin our discussion about the discovery of fire. All that this week on the Radio Free Hillsdale Hour. Find it at podcast hillsdale. Edu or wherever you get your audio.

Hugh Hewitt (26:11)

Welcome back, America. Dr. Larry Arne is my guest. The Hillsdale dialogue is underway. Dr. Ahn in the first three segments of this Hillsdale dialogue. First one we've talked about since the war with Iran began, neither you nor I have mentioned Israel, and I was kind of waiting to see if you would, and now I want to bring it up. If you're going to have one ally in the Middle east and maybe the world, I think it might be Israel. What do you think?

Dr. Larry Arne (26:35)

Well, I went down my list, and they can fight and they're not going to join our enemies. And they're located in a very important, important place. I don't think that they're telling us what to do. It doesn't make any sense that they could. They're a little country, Right. And in America, our government is elected. I should mention this, one of the things that I regret, I regret the progressive amendments to the constitution and the 22nd amendment comes rather later. But it means that Trump can't run again. And it would be better if he could. It would be better if he could, and it would be better if he didn't. Both are true. But it would be better if he could, because right now he can't stand in front of the American people again. And so people are saying that he doesn't care what they think. And that means that amendment was a terrible mistake. And it's traceable in part to Franklin Roosevelt, who violated the example of George Washington and got himself elected four times. Nobody else more than two. Grant.

Hugh Hewitt (27:46)

We should note that Grant tried to get a nomination but was rejected. So it's not a given that you're going to get renominated.

Dr. Larry Arne (27:53)

That's right. And that's the reason, because we were in a beautiful position before. The greatest American, if it's not Abe Lincoln, is George Washington. And he had set an example. And that example was powerful, but it was not constitutionally prescribed. And it would be really cool right now if, you know, because there's a lot of, you know. And who knows about the midterms? Everybody is despairing about them. And I like the fact that they're in the future, which means that we don't know, but it would. He would be more formidable in the midterms if he might be able to say, I might do it again.

Hugh Hewitt (28:32)

And maybe he'll be more formidable in the midterms if a conclusively positive. I don't use the word victory because I don't know what victory looks like. But if a positive result comes out of this conflict and one that is unassailably positive, I mean, there'll always be. There's a bell curve in intellects and there'll be dumb people on the far left and the far right who won't like whatever the result is. But if 80% of America says, hey, we are in a better position now than we were before Trump ordered epic fury, I'm feeling pretty good about the November elections. Dr. Arne, what about if that's the case, what do you think?

Dr. Larry Arne (29:09)

Well, it's always better to feel pretty good on any given day because if you sufficient unto the day is the evils thereof. Yeah, I think we don't know. And I do think that the president is a very formidable politician and he breaks a lot of rules. And one of the rules he breaks is he's, you know, in a second presidents are notoriously weak in their second terms, all of them. He has not been, they're, they're more notoriously weak after the midterms. We'll see. And he's, you know, one of my wise old friend John Morini has written many times the way Republicans tend to win on national issues. And so they nationalize elections, they make it about the greatness and well being and preservation of the country. And Trump is pretty good at that. And I would have hopes, let's put it that way. And I'm certainly not giving up.

Hugh Hewitt (30:07)

Let me take the break now. We'll come back and I'll ask Dr. Arn about student opinion on Hillsdale College after the war has begun because he does haunt, he does haunt the dining room. So I'll be right back after this. Welcome back, America. I'm Hugh Hewitt. Dr. Larry Arrnd is my guest. The Hillsdale dialogue is underway. Dr. Ahmed, got three minutes. You haunt the dining halls. What do your youngsters think about this war?

Dr. Larry Arne (30:34)

Well, it broke out over spring break and so Lord alone knows. But I think that there's a they, like most Americans, are tired of forever wars. And to some of them it will look like Trump has embarked on that. But also they're patriotic and they love their country and they, a lot of them, you know, like I, I've enjoyed, you know, there's, if you go on YouTube, probably 2/3 of it is lies. But they're charming lies about the weapons we're using and the way the battle is going. And so there's a lot of enthusiasm for that. It's like watching a really good football game. And so it'll be both things, right. And they'll be just like you. And usually I am at least trying to figure it out and see what it means. And remember in an education, These kids are 18 to 21 years old, and they're young, they're smart.

Hugh Hewitt (31:30)

Has it impacted them that the regime that we're fighting murdered 35,000 people their age in January? I'm just wondering if that's in their consciousness. They just gunned them down.

Dr. Larry Arne (31:43)

Well, you have to make an adjustment there, because this is not an activist campus, nor do we want it to be. One of my favorite things to say to them is, you're too young and ignorant to save the world yet. Why don't you, why don't you learn about it? And that's what you get a chance to do here, right? And so I had a meeting, young professor, and I had a meeting with 45 boys a few weeks ago, a kind of extra meeting at night about the Middle east and stuff. And here, you know, first of all, one of the questions was, how do we know about the Holocaust? Because I hear, you know, important people diminishing it. And, you know, that's. In other words, that's a very basic question, right? How do you know? And I, I answered this. I said, answered this way. I said, do you ever run across, go home and do it over break, look up a letter or a paper that you wrote in high school and read it? Because whatever memory you have of how you were in high school will be corrected by that piece of writing that you find. And you can find it and you will say, oh, yeah, that's what I was like, right. The reason we know about history is that it exists in documents written at the time, and there are a massive number of them. Well, remember that undergraduate college, very ambitious, studying all the great things with a bunch of young people who never did that before. And that's the kind of thing, right?

Hugh Hewitt (33:17)

That's a wonderful way for them. Have them go look at it. Have them go watch Eisenhower march the local Germans through the death camp. That's on video. That's not made up. Dr. Larry Arne, President of Hillsdale College. Thank you, my friend. All things Hillsdale, Hillsdale. Edu. We'll be back next week in the war. The war has begun as we enter the Churchill memoirs. Don't miss the next Hillsdale Dialogue.

Scott Bertram (33:46)

Thanks for listening to the Hillsdale Dialogue, part of the Hillsdale College Podcast Network. More episodes at Podcast Hillsdale. Edu or wherever you find your audio. For more information about Hillsdale College, head to Hillsdale.

Hugh Hewitt (34:03)

Eduardo.