Hillsdale Dialogues: Churchill’s The Second World War, Part Fifteen

Podcast: Hillsdale Dialogues
Date: December 22, 2025
Guests: Dr. Larry P. Arnn (President, Hillsdale College), Hugh Hewitt (host)
Focus: Churchill’s analysis of the Munich Agreement in The Gathering Storm and its lessons on statesmanship, morality, honor, and decision-making

Episode Overview

This episode delves deeply into Winston Churchill’s reflections on the “Tragedy of Munich,” as recounted in his WWII memoir The Gathering Storm. Dr. Larry P. Arnn and Hugh Hewitt explore Churchill's moral framework, the historical events and decisions surrounding Munich, and draw parallels and lessons for leadership and decision-making today. The discussion highlights the dilemmas of statesmanship, the tension between peace and honor, and the dangers of appeasement.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Churchill’s Reflections and Moral Guidance (00:31–06:38)

• Churchill’s Principles After Munich:
  Dr. Arnn reads and explains Churchill’s summation at the end of Munich, highlighting the complexity of such crises and the difficulty in judging actions outside their context.

  • Churchill: “No case of this kind can be judged apart from the circumstances. The facts may be unknown at the time…” (01:16)
  • Both pacifists and firebrands can be right or wrong depending on circumstances.
  • Duty of statesmen: Avoid war if possible, but must be prepared to use force if ultimately necessary.
  • The value of honor and the challenge of conflicting principles.

• Balancing Principles with Circumstances:
  Dr. Arnn reflects on Churchill’s nuanced view:

  • “What comes together in every decision is honor… with the right estimation of the circumstances. And then you find the truth, right?” (04:26)
  • Modern relevance: Decision-making for Supreme Court justices, statesmen, and leaders parallels the dilemmas faced at Munich (06:38).

2. The Historical “Tick-Tock” of Munich (07:59–11:03)

• The Fateful Timeline:
  Hewitt emphasizes how Churchill narrates Munich almost minute by minute, stressing that the opportunity to avert war came before the defensive fortifications and alignment of powers tipped irreversibly (07:59).
  • The missed chance: Even a demonstration of force, not just force itself, might have deterred Hitler at the time (07:59).
  • The complexity of assessing any modern crisis by direct analogy: “Is the Ukraine war just like the Munich situation? Well, it isn’t just like it, right? And it is like it in some ways.” (05:12)

3. The Three Trips: Chamberlain, Appeasement, and the “Unmitigated Defeat” (12:24–20:29)

• Chamberlain’s Extraordinary Engagement:
  Hewitt reviews how Chamberlain, after Hitler annexes Austria and threatens Czechoslovakia, goes to meet Hitler three times (Sept 15, 22-24, 29–30, 1938).

  • Chamberlain’s fateful misjudgment: “In spite of the hardness and ruthlessness I thought I saw in Hitler’s face, I got the impression that here was a man who could be relied upon when he had given his word. How does anyone get something so wrong?” (18:16)
  • The overlooked fact: Chamberlain’s repeated appeasement delayed but could not ultimately avert war—and may have made it worse.

• Churchill’s Famous Speech Denouncing Munich:
  Dr. Arnn reads from Churchill’s October 5, 1938 speech:

  • “We have sustained a total and unmitigated defeat and that France has suffered even more than we have.” (19:41)
  • The moral gravity and prophetic warning he gave the Commons and the country.

  “They should know that we have sustained a defeat without a war, the consequences of which will travel far with us along our road... when the whole equilibrium of Europe has been deranged, and that the terrible words for the time being have been pronounced against the Western democracies. They aren’t weighed in the balance and found wanting.” (21:58, Churchill via Dr. Arnn)

  • Churchill’s language draws from scripture and Shakespeare, imparting a sense of historic consequence.

4. Aftermath and Judgement: Churchill’s Eulogy of Chamberlain (28:01–31:50)

• Assessing Chamberlain With Charity and Historical Perspective:
  Dr. Arnn reads from Churchill’s 1940 eulogy of Chamberlain, acknowledging his hopes for peace, his disappointments, and the harsh verdict of history:
  • “It is not given to human beings, happily for them… to foresee… the unfolding course of events... The only guide to a man is his conscience. The only shield to his memory is the rectitude and sincerity of his actions.” (30:11)
  • “He was deceived and cheated by a wicked man … the love of peace, the toil for peace, even at great peril. See, isn’t that lovely?” (31:42)

5. The Role of the Soviet Union and the Perils of Unreliable Alliances (31:51–34:50)

• Missed Opportunities and the Russian Factor:
  Discussion of Stalin’s (via Litvinov at the League of Nations) willingness to resist Hitler, which was ignored by Britain and France, prompting the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact.
  • “What was that pact? That pact was, let's carve up Poland and Finland together. We get most of Finland. Well, that's not right, you know.” (32:51 – Dr. Arnn)
  • The consequences of being an unreliable ally—it leads partners to make their own, often disastrous, choices.

6. Leadership, Judgment, and Prudential Decision-Making (36:13–38:23)

• Evaluating Leadership Styles:
  • Reflection on Chamberlain’s manner: stiff, aristocratic, easily overwhelmed by Hitler’s duplicity and charm.
  • Prudence in negotiation: Is it wise for leaders to negotiate one-on-one with someone as untrustworthy as Hitler for prolonged periods? (36:13)
  • Churchill’s nuanced recognition that some German grievances had substance, but the cost of giving way to Hitler was far too high.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Churchill’s Moral Synthesis:

  “Those who are prone by temperament and character to seek sharp and clear cut solutions of difficult and obscure problems, who are ready to fight... have not always been right. On the other hand, those whose inclination is to... seek ... compromise, are not always wrong... Religion and virtue alike lend their sanction to meekness and humility... Still, it is not on those terms that ministers assume their responsibilities of guiding states...”
  — Churchill via Dr. Arnn, (01:15–02:55)

• On Honor and Decision-Making:

  “There is, however, one helpful guide. Namely, for a nation to keep its word. And to act in accordance with its treaty obligations to allies. This guide is called Honor...”
  — Churchill via Dr. Arnn, (03:59)

• Prophetic Speech to the Commons:

  “They should know that we have been… weighed in the balance and found wanting. And do not suppose that this is the end. This is only the beginning...”
  — Churchill, recited by Dr. Arnn (22:24)

• Eulogy for Chamberlain (Churchill):

  “The only guide to a man is his conscience. The only shield to his memory is the rectitude and sincerity of his actions...”
  — Dr. Arnn, quoting Churchill (30:11)

• Modern Implications of Munich:

  “Is the Ukraine war just like the Munich situation? Well, the answer is, it isn't just like it, right? And it is like it in some ways. And so you'll never figure it out unless you can really master the circumstances now.”
  — Dr. Arnn (05:01)

Timestamps for Major Segments

• 00:31–06:38: Churchill’s summary at the end of Munich; principles for action and leadership
• 07:59–11:03: The lost opportunity and “last chance” to deter Hitler
• 12:24–20:29: Chamberlain’s Munich negotiations; Churchill’s famous speech
• 21:58–23:49: Churchill’s biblical and literary warnings; consequences for Europe
• 28:01–31:50: Debating Chamberlain’s intentions; Churchill’s eulogy
• 31:51–34:50: Soviet offers and the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact; reliable alliances
• 36:13–38:23: Prudential leadership and the risks of negotiation with dictators

Conclusion

This conversation provides both a literary and historical analysis of Churchill’s approach to Munich and the enduring lessons on statecraft, prudence, honor, and the difficulty of decision-making in times of crisis. Dr. Arnn and Hugh Hewitt emphasize Churchill’s capacity for charity even in judgment and his insistence on facing hard truths—the value of knowing as much as possible about the present to navigate an uncertain future. The episode invites listeners to grapple with the challenge of balancing peace, honor, responsibility, and the reality of evil.

Catch up on previous episodes or find resources at hillsdale.edu or hughforhillsdale.com.