Hugh Hewitt (5:02)

It's amazing. I got to read a quote Churchill writes on page 426 of the volume I'm using. It is a joke in Britain to say the War Office is always preparing for the last war. It was certainly true of the French army. He doesn't even pardon himself. He thought it was going to be that the defense had an advantage over the offense because he'd been in the trenches, everyone had been in the trenches, knew it was better to stay in the trench rather than go over the Top. Well, it wasn't this time around.

Dr. Larry Arnn (5:32)

Yeah. And see, there's a thing called. There's a great book we had to read under a tremendous professor in graduate school who taught international relations, name is Harold Rude. And we had to read a book called the Short War Illusion. And what it's about is about the Napoleonic wars mostly and the 1914 experience of Germany. Both times those two great powers went into war thinking, I'm going to conquer in this direction, then I'm going to turn back in this direction and conquer in the other direction. And I can do both those things fast and I won't have to fight them both at once. And Napoleon failed outside Moscow and the Germans failed outside Paris, and you got the trench warfare in 1940, 3940. The Germans succeeded at that in the west. They attacked on 10 May, and by what, 25 June, France was entirely conquered

Hugh Hewitt (6:33)

because they had attacked first in the east. They had attacked in the east in 1939. And we milled around, we being the Allies, milled around Britain and France getting ready and building fortifications. But they didn't attack when all the German troops were in the east, and then they came back west. It's really kind of remarkable. I guess we know a lot more about our enemy now then they would have known about their enemy then, because we have means of reconnaissance that are not available then.

Dr. Larry Arnn (7:05)

Yeah, we don't know. I mean, war is a fog. Of course. Trump, you know, I just described what I think might be Trump's short war kind of victory, which is obliterate most of their military power and their upper structures and go home. And that's a limited war aim, and it's plausible that that could be successful and do some good fixing the thing for good and all. That's a bigger war aim and that's harder. And both Napoleon and Germany in 1914, that's what they were attempting both times. The Germans in 1914 set out to pastoralize France, and that is, say they were going to deport. They were going to control northern France. They were going to control their government. They were going to prevent heavy industry from becoming competitive to Germany. They were going to subjugate France, a great nation. And, you know, they kind of got that done. But they also wanted to subjugate Russia. That was actually a higher ambition of Hitler's. So in 1939, when he attacked east, he attacked with limited war aims. He and the Soviet Union, his ally at the time, carved up Poland and Finland between them, and they conquered Poland and then they turned west. So they didn't, you know, the German plan in 1914 was to hold in the west, east, sorry, against Russia, which they regarded as not too formidable, and then attack first in the west toward through Belgium and take France, and they did take most of France, and they almost were successful, but they didn't quite pull it off in 1939, 40 beginning in May 1940, they did pull it off. They eliminated the French army and they drove the British army into the sea. And that happened in a matter of weeks. What Churchill was wrong about, at least what he said in his speeches, was that you can't imagine a modern army of several million men being conquered in a matter of weeks. And then not long after he said that the French army was so conquered,

Hugh Hewitt (9:33)

he also writes, and this is a direct quote from Churchill writing in 1948, the human mind, except when guided by extraordinary genius, cannot surmount the established conclusions amid which it has been reared. Now, I don't want to call Donald Trump an extraordinary genius. He's a politician and a businessman. But the ability to overcome presumed behavior is a great advantage in war. It's been very evident in the last couple of weeks. Don't go anywhere, America. I'm coming right back with Dr. Larry Arn. All things Hillsdale. All right, Hillsdale. Edu sign up for In Primus, their free news digest, which comes snail mail every month. And all of our prior dialogues about Winston Churchill and World War II are collected@q4hillsdale.com they got a brand new course on rhetoric as well, completely free at hillsdale.edu. stay tuned.

Narrator (10:34)

You know the Robertson family from the hit TV show Duck Dynasty. Now Hillsdale College offers you the unique opportunity to learn alongside the Robertsons as they dive deep into Hillsdale's online course, the Genesis Story. Every Friday on the Unashamed podcast, the Robertsons will share their insights and perspectives. Learning from Hillsdale professor of English Justin Jackson. Take a trip down south to Louisiana for this one of a kind learning experience we call Unashamed Academy. Visit unashamedforhillsdale.com and enroll today. That's unashamedforhillsdale dot com to experience the Genesis story alongside the Robert.

Bill Gray (11:27)

Hi there. It's Bill Gray from Hillsdale College. Before you skip ahead, can I ask you a question or two? If you could teach 50 million Americans one thing, what would it be? Would you teach our great American story that this nation is unique, founded on self government and individual liberty? Maybe you would teach the truth about free enterprise, how hard work and opportunity allow anyone to rise? Or would you teach the gospel and the Christian faith that helps us live good and meaningful lives? At Hillsdale College, we're doing exactly that, teaching the best that's been thought and said. Through our free online courses, K12 programs, Imprimis, podcasts and more, we reach and teach millions every year with the principles of liberty that make America free. And with your help, we can reach even more. Your tax deductible gift today will help us teach millions more people to pursue truth and defend liberty. Just text the word give to 7 1844. You'll get a secure link to make your donation in seconds. That's give to 718 44. Thank you for standing with us. Now back to the show.

Hugh Hewitt (12:37)

Welcome back, America. I'm Hugh hewitt talking with Dr. Larry Arn about this book, the Gathering Storm. Now let's talk about presumptions. Dr. Arne. People presume America is going to act a certain way because we usually act a certain way. Trump does not act a certain way ever. I mean, day to day. How much of an advantage?

Dr. Larry Arnn (12:58)

Trump is very unpredictable. And my own view is that that's because he chooses to be. I don't think, I actually don't think

Hugh Hewitt (13:06)

he's erratic, not that erratic, unpredictable.

Dr. Larry Arnn (13:11)

There's an argument that he's erratic. And a lot of people make the argument. What I think is he's not, you know, first of all, if you were the supreme, the twice removed now supreme leader of Iran, would you prefer Joe Biden, Barack Obama or Donald Trump to be here?

Hugh Hewitt (13:34)

Well, you know what? Oh, that's a damning question, isn't it? Sometimes it's just the question has to be asked,

Dr. Larry Arnn (13:43)

you know, because and it's not just, you know, because. And the capital thing that come would come into their calculations, I do believe is, wow, wonder what this guy's going to do. And that's important. And it's the reason. It's one of the reasons there might be more. It's one of the reasons he appears erratic to people who don't like him and some who do, I think because he doesn't explain everything, because he doesn't think he should, I think.

Hugh Hewitt (14:15)

Do you know, though, at this moment, I want to insert into our conversation something that you have a lot of platforms on which you get to stand and tell people, do you know that President Trump is being accused of being an authoritarian and a fascist on a daily, nightly basis in various places? The thing that has made him the most angry in his first 15 months back is that the Supreme Court Told him his tariff power is limited and he may not use it. And man, is he mad. He's so angry. He talks about it all the time, and yet he abides by the rule of the court. And to anyone who calls him an authoritarian or a fascist, here's the thing. He cares the most about his tariff power. It's been taken away from him by the court that he appointed, and he's mad and he's accepting their ruling. And that is the end of the argument that he's an authoritarian, because an authoritarian. Arrest those judges.

Dr. Larry Arnn (15:08)

I think he's got a respect for the Constitution. I think he's got more than many of his enemies. And, you know, it's a cure. You know, you and I could both quickly make an argument that he doesn't have to obey the Supreme Court in all cases. And we would have the example of Abraham Lincoln to go with if we wanted to.

Hugh Hewitt (15:29)

Ex parte McArdle. You bet. Bring me McArdle. No, Mr. Chase, I'm not bringing you McArdle.

Dr. Larry Arnn (15:37)

Mr. You know, and the Dred Scott decision, right, those are all big things the court did that are very bad, and Lincoln opposed them. And that's a war situation, civil war. But he, Lincoln's, you know, eloquent man and a constitutionalist himself, and he explains the constitutional reasoning behind it. Trump has not gone that far, and he could. But I believe you're right. And, you know, like Lincoln, he didn't do it, but he was tempted to arrest the whole Maryland legislature to keep them from seceding, and he didn't do it. And one of the reasons he gave for not doing it was that he didn't think it would work.

Hugh Hewitt (16:25)

Prudence comes in another part of this early war. This early war is so fascinating. I've never really studied it before. Have you taught this book, Dr. Arn, the way that we're talking about it, have you taught one book, the Gathering Storm? Because it's got a million lessons.

Dr. Larry Arnn (16:43)

Well, in all my classes, we read bits from it. Yeah.

Hugh Hewitt (16:46)

Yeah. Well, here's another one of the lessons, the advantage of a lawless aggressor. On the other hand, unless the victory of the aggressors is absolute and final, there may be a day of reckoning. But, boy, do they get the initial jump on you, just as Hamas did on Israel on 10, 7, just as the Imperial Japanese did to us on December 7, just as the Germans did when they violated Belgium neutrality. You pay a heavy price by being Trump tried to give the Iranians a chance to disarm he tried again and again and again and again. No one can say that he was a lawless aggressor. He. They had broken every rule of the book with the iaea, so he was entitled to do what he did by force of international law. They were going to threaten us. Article 51 and 52 of the UN but they do have this enormous temptation to go first. I guess we are burdened by the ability not to do that. Inability to do that. Well, we're.

Dr. Larry Arnn (17:43)

Yeah. And we have advantages that offset that. Like if you get, you know, if you get. Churchill writes this in his first big speech in the parliament in 1901. If you get a democratic people angry, that's a mighty force. And, you know, there's a big debate now about whether we needed to be involved in the Second World War or whether we needed to be so harsh with the Japanese. But I can tell you at the time, the Japanese bombed Pearl harbor and Baikraki, you know, we're going to go over there and we're going to kill them. And everybody was all over and. Because that's it. And that means that Iran doesn't have that right. What they've got is a junta and they've got some number of signs, maybe 20,000, maybe 30,000 who are in the regime. There's a report in the paper this morning that some of the henchmen are not showing up for work. I hope that's true. But it's not like this is a movement opposed to us, of the Iranian people. Such a movement is not really possible.

Hugh Hewitt (18:56)

It's interesting, Larry, if you remember, you and I lived this together. We knew each other in 1979, 1980. I lived it with Richard Nixon watching it on the couch. And for the first 10 to 20 years of that revolution, they were all true believers. They were Homaniacs. They walked through minefields to fight Iraq. But it's been 47 years of poverty and failure. That's different from being at the vanguard of a revolution. Eventually that wears off, don't you think?

Dr. Larry Arnn (19:27)

Yeah. And I'm not sure that I have a friend who's an Iranian immigrant, came when he was a little boy with his parents, and he's very smart, and he says that Iran is a very populous country. And Iran is full of people of education and professional qualification, and they have never been friends of this regime. So there's always been a lot of them. And, you know, you remember the Soviet union lasted, what, 60 years, and it collapsed of its own way because after a while, it just doesn't work and everybody can see it.

Hugh Hewitt (20:03)

That's what's going on in Cuba right now. Welcome back, America. I'm Hugh Hewitt. The Hillsdale dialogue is underway. My guest is Dr. Larry Arne, President of Hillsdale College. All things hillsdale@hillsdale.edu. Dr. Ahn, I'm of a mind of what I did recently. I said this on Fox. They went from Brezhnev to the guy who ran the secret police to Chernenko to Gorbachev in three years. They kept turning over leaders, which gave the opportunity to the subalterns and the lower downs to decide this ain't working. And they broke away. In 1980, you know, the East Germans and the Poles, they looked over there and said, these are old, old men and they don't know what they're doing. And they broke away.

Dr. Larry Arnn (20:50)

Sulzhyn Easy writes about this late in his life that in the last years of the Soviet Union, nobody believed in the Soviet Union. There was this group that ran it called the nomenclature, which just means people with names. They have a name and they were important people and they wedded to their principles, I mean, their privileges. And also they had a stake. Right? In other words, if the regime fell, that'd be bad for them and they might even get killed. But nobody was saying, this is good and we believe in it, right? Well, I think Iran is, you know, there are places where there are lots of Muslims who are not crazy, and there probably are very many of those in Iran and they don't want to see their children killed.

Hugh Hewitt (21:40)

And there are Kurds. Iran is 52% Persian, and there are Kurds and Balucs and Azeris and a whole bunch of other ethnicities that are 48% of the country. I don't want a civil war, but there are a lot of people that don't like the fact that the Islamist extremist Persian clique is on top. You know, we laughed earlier when you mentioned how the ayatollahs would have preferred to have Obama or Biden. In this chapter that we're looking at, Winston Churchill writes, hitler was sure that the French political system was rotten to the core and that it had infected the French army. He did not understand that the profound change which takes place in Great Britain and throughout the British Empire once the signal for war is given. So he quite accurately estimated the French. He underestimated the Britain. The Brits and Khomeini may have both accurately estimated and underestimated America because he wasn't thinking of them as two parts of America blue and red, but rather of one America led by Barack Obama's people.

Dr. Larry Arnn (22:53)

That's right. And, you know, I mean, I, I think it's true that. Well, I know it. No, it's true that many French and British citizen subjects went to visit Hitler, also Stalin, and said things that led them to believe that their countries were not formidable anymore. And it was shameful. Right. Churchill believed that Hitler completely miss estimated misunderstimated Neville Chamberlain because he had a lot iron in his backbone. But Hitler didn't see that. And so he was wrong about something. France was not. I mean, the French army and the France did not fight well in the opening battles of the Second World War. And de Gaulle is a great figure, did something to restore France during the course of that terrible experience, being occupied by the Nazis. And, you know, he was a very stubborn, stiff guy dealing with Churchill and Roosevelt. He was always demanding his prerogatives and the prerogatives of France. And they're always looking at him saying, you know, you don't even have an army. Who are you anyway? Well, I think that that stubbornness kind of helped restore France for a long time, and I pray it can be restored again. Although it ain't very good right now.

Hugh Hewitt (24:18)

That is an understatement, Dr. Larry Arne. As Donald Trump said yesterday, they haven't shown up yet. They should have showed up at the beginning of the war. Oh, well, we will come back to that and the Hillsdale Dialogue right after this.

Bill Gray (24:32)

Hi there, it's Bill Gray from Hillsdale College. Before you skip ahead, can I ask you a question or two? If you could teach 50 million Americans one thing, what would it be? Would you teach our great American story that this nation is unique, founded on self government and individual liberty? Maybe you would teach the truth about free enterprise, how hard work and opportunity allow anyone to rise. Or would you teach the gospel and the Christian faith that helps us live good and meaningful lives? At Hillsdale College, we're doing exactly that. Teaching the best that's been thought and said through our free online courses, K12 programs, Imprimis, podcasts, and more. We reach and teach millions every year with the principles of liberty that make America free. And with your help, we can reach even more. Your tax deductible gift today will help us teach millions more people to pursue truth and defend liberty. Just text the word give to 7 1844. You'll get a secure link to make your donation in seconds. That's give to 718 44. Thank you for standing with us. Now Back to the show.

Narrator (25:46)

You know the Robertson family from the hit TV show Duck Dynasty. Now Hillsdale College offers you the unique opportunity to learn alongside the Robertsons as they dive deep into Hillsdale's online course, the Genesis Story. Every Friday on the Unashamed podcast, the Robertsons will share their insights and perspectives. Perspectives. Learning from Hillsdale professor of English Justin Jackson. Take a trip down south to Louisiana for this one of a kind learning experience we call Unashamed Academy. Visit unashamedforhillsdale.com and enroll today. That's Unashamed. F O R hillsdale.com to experience the genesis story alongside the Robertsons.

Hugh Hewitt (26:34)

Foreign. Welcome back, America. I'm Hugh Hewitt. Hillsdale dialogue is underway. All things Hillsdale, including your application for next year, including free online courses, are all at hillsdale. Edu back to the gathering storm. Dr. Arne they had an amazing defeat early in the war, Scapa Flow, which is this place of impregnable defense, or so the British thought during World War I. The fleet gathers there. U boats aren't supposed to get in there. One gets into Scapa Flow and they see a German report on the U boat. A man on a bicycle could be seen going home along the coast road, but nobody sees the submarine. And they sink the Royal Oak, which is a big ship. It's a big old battleship. The sort of defeat that I fear in this war between the United States and Iran, if it were to occur, would be devastating to the war effort. I don't know that we could absorb it. How do you think the Brits absorbed that?

Dr. Larry Arnn (27:43)

Well, partly they didn't have any choice, right? They're in the war. It's a big war. Nobody wanted the war, by the way, Churchill didn't want the war. Nobody wanted the war. But now, you know, if you want to know who caused the Second World War, his name is Adolf Hitler, secondarily Joseph Stalin. But now they're in it, right? And they sink a big ship. What are we going to do, surrender? So that was, you know, that's that factor that Churchill loves. And you read him making it consensual. Governments operate on consent. And you know, we're in a very divided country right now, but that's partly because we can afford to be. And you know, after 9, 11, after the attacks on the twin towers and the Pentagon and the flight in pen to crashed in Pennsylvania, just going to the White House, it was a very united country. Now it became disunited because the war went on forever and it didn't look like we were Following a strategy that could be successful and that's playing into this right now, this war that we've got right now. And one of Trump's challenges, and who knows we can do it, but he does seem to be trying is to do some good and get it over with. And I hope that's what he's doing and what he says he's doing.

Hugh Hewitt (29:18)

I want to close this hour, Larry, by talking a little bit about Neville Chamberlain because you have heroically pointed out again and again and again that while Baldwin was the man who ruined England in the 30s, Chamberlain had steel in his spine. And Churchill tells the story that he invites the Prime Minister and Mrs. Chamberlain over to dinner at the Admiralty where he and Mrs. Churchill and they had never had dinner before, which is hard for me to believe because it's 1940 and they've both been in politics for 40 years. And he reveals that Chamberlain had been a hard bitten pioneer from the outer marches of the British Army. Neville had been sent by great Joe Chamberlain, the industrialist and colonialist for five years to grow something called Sissel in the Bahamas. And he, he did that for five years, basically with a pair of shorts, doing the best he can in the Bahama. Neville Chamberlain was a hard man.

Dr. Larry Arnn (30:21)

Yeah. And Hitler betrayed him. He didn't like it and he got really tough. And it was probably impractical to give a guarantee to Poland because Poland couldn't really defend itself or contribute anything to the British war effort. Whereas Churchill believed that Czechoslovakia, which Chamberlain let go, could. But he was ticked off. This guy lied to me on a big scale and he reached his conclusions. Churchill thought that Chamberlain would look for a way out in the months. So In March of 1939, Hitler took the rest of Czechoslovakia and then In August of 1939 he attacked Poland. And so there's going to be war. And Churchill thought. And then Chamberlain remains Prime Minister from the outbreak of the war, September 3, 1939, until May 10, 1980, 1940. So cover six months, eight months. And Churchill thought he'd be looking for a way out, but he never did. He was mad and he can't deal with this guy. So that. And Churchill respected him for that. He thought he made disastrous. And you know, I read on the show here Churchill's eulogy to Chamberlain, which is very beautiful, one of his best, and he was very good at that.

Hugh Hewitt (31:55)

And

Dr. Larry Arnn (31:58)

he, you know, basically forgives him. And Baldwin was the one who was Prime Minister at a time when Britain had got ready that might have prevented the war, but certainly would have made the opening of it much better for Britain.

Hugh Hewitt (32:15)

So, last question this week. War reveals, it reveals a lot about leaders and about their character and their spine. Do you think Trump is learning things about the people around him as this conflict unfolds?

Dr. Larry Arnn (32:30)

Oh, yeah. And I think he's got a pretty good team and he's called to hurt a little bit, only in security, for example. But I think, you know, the, the prime people here are apart from the direct White House staff of Rubio and Higsis. And he seems to have confidence in them and they've got some vigor about them. And so it looks to me like a pretty strong team. And, you know, and we don't remember, we don't know while we're talking here today what's going to happen here. It looks like, you know, the news has darkened as we speak because they've got the Straits of Hormuz closed and it looks like it's really hard to open them again. And there's got to be boots on the ground to do that. And there's Marines on their way there and who knows what they're going to do. There aren't that many of them, by the way, 2,500. But the truth is maybe what he's going to do is not worry about that. Maybe he's going to say, I've weakened those guys. I'm going to go home. You guys, you guys who defend on the straight depend on the Straits of Hormuz. You figure out how to get them open again. And that's an outcome that doesn't look too bad to me.

Hugh Hewitt (33:41)

Doesn't look too bad to me either. We don't know what the outcome is going to be except I think Iran is a shadow of itself and the people talk to me. In a year, I think that regime will be gone, if not sooner. Don't go anywhere except to hillsdale edu or all fire hillsdale dialogue@q4 hillsdale.com Come right back. Welcome back, America. I'm with Dr. Larry Ahn. The Hillsdale dialogue rolls along and we will be back in this book, the Gathering Storm next week. Remind you all things Hillsdale are at Hillsdale. Eduardo got a brand new course on rhetoric out and you say what is rhetoric? Well, it's something that everyone can profit from and it's free. All you have to do is go to Hilltale Edu and sign up while you're there. You can also sign up for Imprimis and get the Absolutely Free Speech Digest delivered snail mail the old fashioned way. Seven million copies Go out every single month with an important address, something for you to read by the fire as the night dwindles. Go and get him, Primus. Go and read it. Get smart. Take their online courses there for free. And if you want all the Hillsdale dialogues, including this long series on Churchill's the Gathering storm, head to HughForHillsdale.com now. Dr. Arn, we gotta talk about America because America's got an isolationist streak and it's a mile wide. And we're seeing it again in this

Dr. Larry Arnn (35:01)

war with Iran in the case of France. You know, the people who rely on the relative isolation of America make a really good argument that it's deeply embedded in American history. And you can see how powerful it is, in part because when on earth in the history of France did it ever have that advantage, right? It's got neighbors and they're powerful and they're always mucking around with France. And they might come over the border any day. Spain, Germany, Austria. And so we have had the luxury of not having that.

Hugh Hewitt (35:39)

And.

Dr. Larry Arnn (35:40)

But everything is changing so fast in the world. Just remember, the United States could be devastated in the course of 20 minutes from the other side of the world with a ballistic missile attack. And, you know, the Japanese navy destroyed most of the ships in our biggest naval base in the base from airplanes that had never been used like that before. So. Well, actually, the Germans had bombed cities with their airplanes in the opening months of the First World, Second World War. So anyway, the world is changing very fast, and we have to think about the safety of our country, and we have to think about the most economical way to secure the safety of our country because we have this additional factor. We're broke and we're rich and we waste a lot of money and we need to get the government under control.

Hugh Hewitt (36:38)

At the same time, we are engaged in continuing surveillance, if not kinetic war. On that note, that's the end of the Hillsdale dialogue for this week. We'll pick up next week. We'll know more about how the war began and the first naval battles thereof. Because the Graf Spee comes into play next week. Don't miss it. Thank you, Adam. Thank you, Harley. Thank you, General. Easy. All of you. Go to Hillsdale Edu for all their online courses. Sign up for Imprime is There. And don't forget as well. Hugh, for hillsdale.com for all the previous episodes in this series on the Gathering Storm by Winston Churchill.

Narrator (37:22)

Thanks for listening to the Hillsdale Dialogues, part of the Hillsdale College Podcast Network. More episodes at Podcast Hillsdale Edu or wherever you find your audio. For more information about Hillsdale College, head to Hillsdale.

Dr. Larry Arnn (37:39)

Eduardo.