Hillsdale Dialogues — “The War in Iran”
Hillsdale College Podcast | March 23, 2026
Dr. Larry P. Arnn (President, Hillsdale College) with host Hugh Hewitt

Episode Overview

This episode marks Dr. Larry Arnn’s return to the Hillsdale Dialogues after several weeks, shifting focus from great books to contemporary geopolitics. Hugh Hewitt and Dr. Arnn provide a wide-ranging discussion about the ongoing conflict involving Iran, its global implications, the shifting dynamics among international alliances (especially NATO), and the United States’ evolving strategic posture. The dialogue moves from strategic assessments to historical context, best- and worst-case scenarios, to student perspectives at Hillsdale.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Dangerous World and a New Cold War

[Timestamps: 02:28–06:01]

• Dr. Arnn remarks on the perilous international environment, noting US actions are “very dramatic” but unpredictable in outcome. He emphasizes the entanglement between Iran, China, Venezuela, and Cuba, and China’s strategic oil interests.
  • “These things look like strategic moves to keep China from taking over the world.” [03:43]
• Hugh Hewitt frames the conflict as a “war within a war”—a proxy battle against Iran within the broader context of “Cold War 2.0 with China.”
  • “Superpower competition...never went away. We just pretended not to notice it after the Berlin Wall fell.” [05:02]
• The recent weakening of Iran and regime change in Venezuela are seen as positive outcomes for the US in this superpower contest.

2. US War Aims and the Limits of Intervention

[Timestamps: 06:01–11:00]

• Dr. Arnn contrasts current US goals with past “forever wars,” implying Trump’s are narrower and more pragmatic.
  • “It looks to me like Trump has more limited war aims here, which means more reasonable, probably.” [06:17]
• Potential for “declaring victory” and withdrawing, leaving Iran weakened but without major US entanglement.
• Alliance fissures are now public, with France reportedly negotiating separately with Iran, raising doubts about NATO’s future.

3. America's Strategic Interests and Historical Reluctance

[Timestamps: 11:00–13:30]

• Reflection on America’s founding foreign policy doctrine: avoidance of “long term alliances.”
  • “The original foreign policy of the United States avoided long term alliances...The Monroe Doctrine...was built on an alliance with the British and their navy...” [08:45]
• Debate about the US protecting the Straits of Hormuz, especially now that America is more energy independent.
  • “Maybe we don’t care as much about the Strait of Hormuz. That’s a question to be open.” [10:25]

4. Best and Worst Case Scenarios: The War’s Endgame

[Timestamps: 12:54–19:00]

• Best Case:
  • Regime change driven by the Iranian people, not the US. Elimination of Iranian Revolutionary Guard leadership creating “an opening.”
    • “A good case would be Iran was not an irresponsible, dangerous power anymore. That’s the best case scenario.” [13:41]
  • Growing strength of US ties with Gulf states (Qatar, Saudi Arabia), as NATO alliances falter.
• Worst Case:
  • Prolonged US entanglement with a continued military presence in Iran, susceptible to threat and regional instability.
    • “Worst case, we have an enduring presence and a base in Iran that can be threatened.” [17:13]
• “Everything is a prudential matter...Think through the interests of the United States of America, which are the property concern of its government, its people, their interests, then...you're going to have to be smart because...against China, we run out of bullets in three weeks.” [17:28]
• Discussion on technological advances and the limitations of traditional US military power.

5. The Fraying of NATO and the Future of Alliances

[Timestamps: 19:00–22:00]

• Absence of unity among traditional allies, especially in Western Europe.
  • “It needs to be in the interest of the United States of America. And is it? It needs to show that it can contribute.” [20:02, Dr. Arnn]
• Uncertainty about which European countries the US can count on: “Poland and Hungary, probably. Finland...maybe Sweden. Germany...not helping.” [20:50]
• Hewitt and Arnn concur that bold US leadership is necessary, but express disappointment at Europe’s decline as a reliable partner.

6. Iran vs. North Korea — Levels of Threat

[Timestamps: 22:00–23:34]

• Assessment of the Iranian regime’s risk profile compared to North Korea. Iran seen as more dangerous due to its theological, apocalyptic motivations.
  • “Iran is a theological end times driven, millennial...eschatology. And that’s a lot more dangerous...” [21:49, Hewitt]
• Ongoing American resolve to prevent a nuclear-armed Iran is a consistent thread in US policy, especially under Trump.

7. Student and Public Opinion; The War's Impact on Campus

[Timestamps: 30:44–33:27]

• Hewitt: Asks Dr. Arnn about student sentiment and activism.
• Dr. Arnn: Students are “tired of forever wars,” but patriotic, curious, and engaged in studying the issues rather than activism. They see the conflict partly like a “really good football game.”
  • “You’re too young and ignorant to save the world yet. Why don’t you learn about it?” [31:53, Dr. Arnn]
• Discussion on how students process historical atrocities like genocide—emphasizing primary sources and learning history through documents.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On strategic purpose:
  • “These things look like strategic moves to keep China from taking over the world.” — Dr. Larry Arnn [03:43]
• On shifting alliances:
  • “Superpower competition...never went away. We just pretended not to notice it after the Berlin Wall fell.” — Hugh Hewitt [05:02]
• On military realism:
  • “If we were fighting China right now...what it shows is against China, we run out of bullets in three weeks.” — Dr. Larry Arnn [18:17]
• On world order and utopianism:
  • “If you can’t make the whole world into a friend...it means that we’re going to live in a dangerous world and we need to be smart and cagey and we shouldn’t look for utopian solutions.” — Dr. Larry Arnn [16:35]
• On generational experience:
  • “You’re too young and ignorant to save the world yet. Why don’t you...learn about it? And that’s what you get a chance to do here.” — Dr. Larry Arnn [31:53]

Timestamps for Critical Segments

• [02:28] World in crisis — A new cold war, China’s growing influence
• [05:02] The “war within a war” paradigm, US gains with Venezuela & Iran
• [06:01] American war weariness; difference between Iraq/Afghanistan and today
• [07:33] Possible “beginning of the end” for NATO?
• [13:32] Best/Worst Case: Regime change vs. prolonged entanglement
• [20:02] The utility and future of NATO, worth of alliances
• [21:49] Iran’s unique ideological danger compared to North Korea
• [26:45] Israel as the crucial regional ally
• [30:44] Reflections on student attitudes toward the war

Tone & Language

The episode is characterized by thoughtful, measured exchange—informed by both history and policy realism—with a signature blend of earnestness, skepticism of utopian projects, and the occasional dry wit. Both speakers maintain a tone of prudence, seriousness, and intellectual curiosity.

For further exploration:
All past Hillsdale Dialogues and courses can be found at hillsdale.edu.