History As It Happens: Episode Summary

Title: 3 Years of War: Origins
Host: Martin Di Caro
Release Date: February 21, 2025

Introduction

In the third episode of "History As It Happens," host Martin Di Caro delves into the intricate origins of the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Titled "3 Years of War: Origins," the episode features insightful discussions with esteemed scholars Michael Kimmage, Serhii Plokhy, and Vladislav Zubok. Through a blend of expert analysis and historical context, the episode explores the factors that led to the war, the role of NATO, and the underlying ideologies shaping Russia's actions.

Breaking News: The Current State of War

The episode opens with Martin providing a brief update on the current situation:

“Breaking news overnight. Russia has attacked Ukraine and its people, upending security and stability in Europe.”
— Martin Di Caro [01:39]

This sets the stage for the ensuing analysis, emphasizing the gravity and immediacy of the conflict.

Impact of NATO and Diplomatic Efforts

NATO's Role and Russia's Concerns

Vladislav Zubok remarks on Russia's stance towards NATO:

“From the perspective of a historian, I really am not so surprised that this war is happening, and NATO has very little to do with that.”
— Vladislav Zubok [02:22]

Serhii Plokhy adds clarity on the end of the Cold War era:

“The Cold War days are over. The Cold War is over. The Cold War is over.”
— Serhii Plokhy [02:45]

The discussion highlights that Russia's motivations transcend mere NATO expansion, rooted deeply in its imperial history and desire to maintain regional dominance.

Diplomatic Efforts and U.S. Involvement

Michael Kimmage critiques the Trump administration's approach:

“The Trump administration's overtures to the Kremlin are supposed to end an endless war in Eastern Europe...”
— Michael Kimmage [01:46]

He underscores the administration's mixed messages and lack of coherent strategy in addressing the conflict, pointing out the absence of Ukraine in diplomatic negotiations.

Historical Context and Ideological Underpinnings

Putin's Ideology and Historical Interpretation

Vladislav Zubok delves into Vladimir Putin's historical mindset:

“Putin now takes these ideas from 19th century and tries to run policy on the basis of it in the 21st century. And he destroys, of course, good part of Ukraine, but for Russia itself he ends up in a ditch.”
— Vladislav Zubok [35:15]

Serhii Plokhy expands on the imperialistic views influencing Putin:

“One of those ideas is that Ukrainians are not supposed to exist as a separate nation, that Ukrainians are part of the Russian nation. That's a classic pre-1917 Russian imperial thinking.”
— Serhii Plokhy [40:51]

Conservative Utopia and Modernization

Martin Di Caro reflects on Putin's dual approach:

“The phrase is conservative utopia. It's something in the mind of Vladimir Putin, and I think the way that those two things interact is just looking at it very dryly is quite fascinating...”
— Martin Di Caro [49:38]

He emphasizes Putin's obsession with history and his efforts to modernize Russia for geopolitical dominance, blending past imperial ambitions with contemporary strategies.

The Role of European States and U.S. Deterrence

European Responsibility and Security Burden

Vladislav Zubok discusses Europe's evolving role:

“Old Europe was extremely reluctant to in any way take sides in the war... there is a major change, a major shift of historical proportion, but they're not even close to being able to take care of the security of Europe on their own.”
— Vladislav Zubok [16:47]

U.S. Deterrence and NATO's Stability

Martin Di Caro expresses concerns over U.S. actions:

“The US plays a crucially important role in deterrence, and there are two layers to that...”
— Martin Di Caro [19:23]

He warns that any reduction in U.S. commitment could weaken NATO's deterrent effect against Russian aggression.

Contingency and Structural Factors in the War's Origin

Historical Continuum and Structural Realities

Vladislav Zubok highlights the deep-seated desire for control over Ukraine:

“There is a long continuum... a Russian desire, effort, will, to control Ukraine. So that's not particular to the last 30 years.”
— Vladislav Zubok [54:48]

Contingent Events Influencing the War

Michael Kimmage and Vladislav Zubok discuss pivotal moments like Viktor Yanukovych's flight in 2014:

“The largest contingency is Viktor Yanukovych's choice to flee Ukraine in the third week of February 2014...”
— Vladislav Zubok [55:43]

This event set off a chain of reactions that escalated tensions and contributed to the current conflict.

Potential Paths Forward and Future Implications

Possibility of Peace and Future Relations

Marting Di Caro speculates on the potential for a peace deal:

“He [Putin] certainly will try to present whatever happens on the battlefield at the negotiation table as victory...”
— Vladislav Zubok [55:53]

Serhii Plokhy remains cautiously optimistic about future partnerships:

“Russia is not the enemy of the United States. As a matter of fact, after our meeting today, I'm convinced it can be a strong partner and friend.”
— Serhii Plokhy [57:56]

However, both scholars acknowledge significant barriers to achieving meaningful improvement in U.S.-Russian or European-Russian relations without substantial shifts in current policies and perceptions.

Conclusion

In "3 Years of War: Origins," Martin Di Caro orchestrates a comprehensive examination of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict's historical roots. Through the expertise of Michael Kimmage, Serhii Plokhy, and Vladislav Zubok, the episode elucidates the complex interplay of historical ambitions, ideological convictions, and geopolitical strategies that have perpetuated the war. The discussion underscores the importance of understanding these multifaceted origins to navigate potential resolutions and foster lasting peace in the region.

Notable Quotes:

• Vladislav Zubok: “What we see here is a classic case of the disintegration of one of the largest world empires.”
  [02:22]

• Serhii Plokhy: “The Cold War days are over. The Cold War is over. The Cold War is over.”
  [02:45]

• Martin Di Caro: “The annexation of Crimea... is deeply damaging over time to Russian interests in the region.”
  [02:53]

• Michael Kimmage: “...the war was not inevitable, but neither was it unforeseeable given the continuum of Russian imperial history.”
  [01:46]

• Serhii Plokhy: “Ukrainians are not supposed to exist as a separate nation, that Ukrainians are part of the Russian nation.”
  [40:51]

• Martin Di Caro: “It's a version of tough love. So it's an effort to push Europeans...”
  [19:23]

This detailed summary captures the essence of the episode, providing listeners with a comprehensive understanding of the discussions and insights shared by the hosts and guests.