Podcast Summary: "Before and After Hamas"

History As It Happens with Martin Di Caro
Guest: Nathan Brown (Professor, George Washington University)
Date: October 7, 2025

Overview of the Episode

This episode of "History As It Happens" marks the second anniversary of Hamas’s October 7, 2023, attack on Israel and explores the organization's trajectory before, during, and after its rise to power. Host Martin Di Caro interviews Middle East expert Nathan Brown to trace Hamas’s evolution and discuss the realities of the current conflict, the possibilities of peace, and the uncertain future of both Hamas and Palestinian resistance. The conversation draws on historical context, political analysis, and broader changes occurring in the Middle East, attempting to answer what might come "after Hamas."

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The Latest Peace Proposal & Defining Peace

[09:46–13:16]

• Context: On the second anniversary of the 2023 Hamas attack, President Trump unveils a 20-point peace proposal seeking, amongst other things, the release of hostages, Hamas’s disarmament, and ceding power.
• Defining Peace:
  • Brown points out that, for now, “peace” simply means a cessation of violence—hardly the comprehensive settlement many envision.
    • “Over the short term it will probably just be a cessation of the Israeli military campaign. That's not really peace, but it's what people are longing for, just an end to the scale of killing and destruction.” – Nathan Brown [10:02]
• Vagueness of the Proposal:
  • The plan is described as vague, with all involved parties (Israel, the US, Hamas, Arab states, Europeans) appearing to agree, but actually holding conflicting interpretations, and with “big holes in the agreement.”
    • “Essentially, what we've just got right now is a beginning of diplomacy among parties who still have very contradictory interests.” – Nathan Brown [12:57]

2. The Decimation and Future of Hamas Leadership

[13:26–15:16]

• Leadership Loss:
  • Hamas’s internal structure has been virtually wiped out; many leaders are dead, and the group functions now as a more underground guerrilla organization.
  • The future form of Hamas is deeply uncertain, with divisions between Gaza-based and external leadership.
    • "Almost anybody who was anybody in Hamas prior to October 2023 is dead. So we don't really know what kind of movement will emerge from this." – Nathan Brown [14:30]

3. Historical Analogies: 1982 Lebanon and Unintended Consequences

[15:16–18:11]

• PLO’s Exile in 1982:
  • The Israeli invasion of Lebanon resulted in the PLO’s leadership exile, which unexpectedly led to a shift toward diplomacy and internal Palestinian self-organization.
  • Brown argues that similar unintended consequences could arise from attempts to force Hamas into exile today.
    • “What we should learn from that is that the situation right now is plunging to the unknown… There will be developments in Palestinian society which won't be visible, I think, perhaps for years to come.” – Nathan Brown [17:19]

4. Palestinian Society: Search for Alternatives and Despair

[18:11–18:48]

• Old Politics vs. New Sentiment:
  • Widespread Palestinian frustration with both Hamas and Fatah; however, no clear alternative leadership has emerged.
    • “These are eight track tapes. This is a technology of the 20th century, but no alternative has emerged. … How that will express itself is anybody's guess.” – Nathan Brown [18:26]

5. Will Armed Resistance End?

[18:48–22:02]

• Internal Dynamics:
  • Given massive losses, future Hamas leaders are likely to be those with a militant record, favoring continued armed resistance.
  • However, a hypothetical (if unlikely) scenario exists: Hamas dissolving into a unified Palestinian state, aligning with long-standing demands for a single governing authority.
    • “The voices within the organization that will say we have to return to our roots will be the more powerful ones.” – Nathan Brown [20:07]
    • "If I were an American diplomat ... I'd say to Hamas, okay, you will dissolve yourself into a Palestinian state. Let's talk about how that happens.” – Nathan Brown [21:39]

6. The Nature of Revolutionary Movements

[22:02–24:23]

• Hamas: Idea vs. Organization:
  • Hamas’s durability is attributed to its organizational strength more than to ideology alone.
    • “Hamas has always been, yes, there are ideas in Hamas, but their secret to success has been their organizational strength… This is a level of destruction which no other movement in Palestinian history has ever stood up to.” – Nathan Brown [22:32]

7. Arab States and Geopolitical Shifts

[24:23–27:57]

• From Armed Struggle to ‘Global Mafia Politics’:
  • The episode discusses how Arab states, over decades, have shifted from antagonism with Israel to practical dealings—driven by concern for regional stability more than by solidarity with the Palestinians.
  • The Abraham Accords marked a change to individual Arab states normalizing relations with Israel, but this trend now faces skepticism due to Israeli military policies.
    • “If anything, the momentum now is a slight bit in the opposite direction. ... Israel is now as much a security worry as a security partner for those states.” – Nathan Brown [27:17]

8. The One-State Reality

[27:57–30:42]

• No Two-State Solution:
  • Both Israelis and Palestinians increasingly see the two-state solution as dead; even the Trump plan only briefly mentions a Palestinian state.
    • "We want to live our lives, we just want normal lives. And that seems out of reach. So you're really dealing with a situation in which I think you not only have a one state reality, but there are no realistic plans to anything better or different.” – Nathan Brown [29:51]

9. Fading of Radical Islam and What Comes Next?

[30:42–35:13]

• Decline of Radical Islamism:
  • The appeal of radical political Islam is waning, particularly among the youth, while a deep identification with Palestinian national identity endures.
    • "It's probably fading. ... What will replace it? I suggested before, there's a real strong grasping to Palestinian national identity, but it's not coupled to any kind of ideology, any kind of strategy whatsoever.” – Nathan Brown [33:00]
• A Period of Searching:
  • Likely future: A prolonged, directionless phase marked by the search for new forms of resistance or political organization, analogous to the PLO’s period of dormancy in the 1980s.

10. Israel’s Tactical Approach and Lack of Long-Term Vision

[35:13–36:25]

• Managing Palestinian Politics:
  • Israel’s short-term tactics (including once tolerating Hamas as a challenge to the PLO) contrast with a lack of long-term strategy regarding Palestinian aspirations.
    • “The Israelis have been very, very tactically adept, but I don't think there's a real strategic vision on how to deal with the Palestinians.” – Nathan Brown [35:38]

11. The Burden of Occupation and the West Bank’s Despair

[36:25–38:50]

• Absence of Current Uprising:
  • Despite severe provocations in the West Bank, intense despair and exhaustion have prevented a violent uprising—for now.
    • “The level of despair is just so great. I would be surprised if it's quiet forever... People are just reeling under this and thinking: How do I get to school? How do I move around? How do I get a job? What's my future in this?” – Nathan Brown [37:00]
• The Right to Self-Determination:
  • Brown closes with a passionate reminder of the daily indignities and injustice faced by Palestinians:
    • "Look at the world through their eyes. It is not fair that a Palestinian child cannot grow up in a state of their own… It's not right to prevent Palestinians from farming their lands or restricting a student's ability to move around the West Bank or displace Palestinian families from their homes. Neither occupation nor expulsion is the answer." – Nathan Brown [38:10]

Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• On the Defining of Peace:
  "What people have usually meant by peace is some kind of comprehensive Israeli Palestinian settlement ... That's what people have meant by peace. And in that sense this isn't really a peace proposal that we've got from Trump.” – Nathan Brown [10:14]

• On Unpredictable Consequences of Conflict:
  "What we should learn from [1982] is that the situation right now is plunging to the unknown. ... There will be developments in Palestinian society which won't be visible, I think, perhaps for years to come." – Nathan Brown [17:19]

• About the Organizational Strength of Hamas:
  "This is a level of destruction which no other movement in Palestinian history has ever stood up to. So that's why I think Hamas survives on the resilience of its basic organizational structure.” – Nathan Brown [22:39]

• On Feeling of Futility and Despair in the Occupied Territories:
  “We want to live our lives, we just want normal lives. And that seems out of reach.” – Nathan Brown [29:49]

• On Generational Change:
  “These are dim memories for them. These are eight track tapes. This is a technology of the 20th century, but no alternative has emerged.” – Nathan Brown [18:23]

• On the Declining Appeal of Radical Islamism:
  “Political Islam ... that project is over, and it's over for Palestinians.” – Nathan Brown [33:06]

• On the Palestinian Struggle:
  "The Palestinian people's right to self determination, their right to justice must also be recognized. And put yourself in their shoes. ... Neither occupation nor expulsion is the answer." – Nathan Brown [38:15]

Key Timestamps

• 09:46: Martin Di Caro welcomes Nathan Brown and opens discussion on defining peace.
• 10:47: Examination of the peace proposal’s vagueness and contradictory interests.
• 13:54: Analysis of who/what remains within Hamas post-2023.
• 15:16: Drawing historical lessons from the 1982 PLO exile.
• 18:11: Discussion on the exhaustion with old Palestinian politics and absence of a new alternative.
• 19:39: Possibilities for the future of armed resistance and potential other directions.
• 22:02: The transformation of movements—Hamas as phenomenon.
• 24:23: Regional and international currents shaping events post-Arab normalization.
• 27:57: The "one-state reality" and loss of faith in two-state solution.
• 30:42: Fading trajectory of radical Islam and new search for Palestinian national expression.
• 36:25: Occupation’s impact on Palestinian daily life, West Bank developments.

Episode Tone and Style

The conversation is analytical, historically grounded, and somber, with moments of passionate advocacy for understanding the Palestinian experience. Brown’s style is reflective and cautious, repeatedly noting the unpredictability of social and political outcomes in the region.

This summary encapsulates the episode’s rich historical framing, sharp analysis of the current crisis, and forward-looking (if uncertain) exploration of Palestinian and regional futures—making it essential listening for those seeking to understand the unfolding “before and after” reality of Hamas.