History As It Happens — Bonus Episode: Bring on the Nukes

Date: February 11, 2026
Host: Martin Di Caro
Guest: Joe Cirincione, Nuclear Arms Control Expert

Episode Overview

In this urgent bonus episode, Martin Di Caro examines the demise of nuclear arms control agreements between the U.S. and Russia, focusing on the expiration of the New START treaty. With guest Joe Cirincione, a respected authority on nuclear weapons policy, the conversation traces 50 years of arms reduction efforts. The discussion places that history in stark contrast with today’s hazardous realities: no treaty limits, expanding arsenals, and a tougher, multipolar nuclear landscape, especially as China modernizes its nuclear forces. The tone is anxious but clear-eyed, highlighting how the collapse of arms control shapes today’s more precarious world.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The Legacy of Arms Control Treaties

• Martin opens by recalling iconic moments—Nixon and Brezhnev, Reagan and Gorbachev—that inspired hope for nuclear restraint. He notes a "half-century of diplomatic work is now dust" with the expiration of New START. (00:47–01:12)
  • Quote:
    “From Nixon, Brezhnev and the ABM Treaty to Reagan and Gorbachev and the INF Treaty, A New Start Under Obama and Medvedev, a half century of diplomatic work is now dust.”
    — Martin Di Caro (00:47)

2. The Repercussions of New START’s Expiration

• New START was the last remaining nuclear arms pact between the U.S. and Russia. Its lapse means:
  • No more ceilings on deployed strategic warheads or delivery systems.
  • Dismantling of mutual inspections and data exchanges that maintained transparency and credibility. (01:30–01:58)
  • Quote:
    “The treaty’s demise... has dismantled a system of shared knowledge inspections, data exchanges, and notification regimes that made credible commitments possible.”
    — Quoting Stephen Holmes, Project Syndicate, read by Martin (01:34)

3. The Shift to a More Dangerous World

• With arms control frameworks gone:
  • U.S. and Russian arsenals are unconstrained for the first time since 1972.
  • China is amassing and modernizing its nuclear stockpile—never covered by previous treaties.
  • Other nations contemplate acquiring nuclear arms, raising global risk. (01:15–01:29)
  • Quote:
    “As a result, the world is becoming more dangerous.”
    — Martin Di Caro (01:27)

4. What Did New START Achieve?

• Joe Cirincione explains New START’s function:
  • Imposed modest caps (1,550 deployed warheads; 700 launchers).
  • Required mutual inspections, telemetry/data exchange, and notifications for exercises/movements—preventing miscalculation and surprise. (03:41–04:52)
  • Built on earlier treaties from Nixon (1972), Reagan, and George H.W. Bush.
  • Quote:
    “So all this system had been in place and that system had built on the previous limitation treaties that Richard Nixon had negotiated back in 1972.”
    — Joe Cirincione (04:32)

5. Implications: The End of an Era

• Cirincione declares:
  • “54 year long process of limiting and then reducing the nuclear weapons of the two largest holders on the planet. That is now over. The era of strategic arms control has ended.” (05:07–05:32)
  • No more limits, inspections, or data sharing—the world is in a strategic free-for-all.
  • The tone suddenly darkens:
    • Quote:
      “Rest in peace. Or in a mushroom cloud.”
      — Martin Di Caro (05:32–05:34)

6. The Policy and Political Dynamics

• Trump’s worldview is dissected, via Stephen Holmes’ essay:

  • Treats durable institutional knowledge as a constraint, not an asset.
  • Negotiations seen as isolated transactions for leverage, not as incremental trust-building. (01:58–02:28)

• The Biden/Obama approach had been to keep New START as a “holding step” until a new treaty could be negotiated—including China and further reductions. (06:25–06:51)

7. China’s Rise and the Multilateral Challenge

• Cirincione and Martin discuss how New START’s original vision included pulling China into future agreements as its stockpile grew.
• The episode closes on the point that the arms control architecture wasn’t updated or expanded in time to address the China challenge—now nukes races loom larger. (06:25–06:51)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Nixon, on ABM Treaty optimism:
  “This agreement is a major step in breaking the stalemate on nuclear arms talks... Intensive negotiations, however, will be required to translate this understanding into a concrete agreement.” (04:52, archival)

• Soviet Leader (archival):
  “And this ideal has not yet been attained in the world... While liberating the world from fear, we are making steps toward a new world.” (00:32, archival)

• Gorbachev’s favorite saying, recalled by Reagan:
  “The maxim is doviai no provaii trust but verify.” (02:35, archival)

• Joe Cirincione:
  “There are no longer any limits on how many weapons the U.S. or Russia can deploy. The inspection process is over. The data exchange is over. The era of strategic arms control has now ended.” (05:07–05:32)

Key Timestamps

• 00:00–00:47 — Introduction; the gravity of arms control’s death
• 01:30–01:58 — Stephen Holmes’ analysis
• 03:41–05:07 — Joe Cirincione details New START’s regime
• 05:32–05:34 — Tone shift: “Rest in peace. Or in a mushroom cloud.”
• 06:25–06:51 — The missed opportunity to update arms control and include China

Tone and Style

• The episode is urgent, reflective, and tinged with nostalgia and foreboding. Martin balances historical context with present-day urgency, while Cirincione offers clear, expert analysis and a note of solemnity.

Summary

This episode of History As It Happens spotlights the collapse of decades-long nuclear arms control and asks: What happens now that rational, institutionalized restraint is gone? With pointed insights from guest Joe Cirincione and archival clips grounding the discussion historically, the episode illustrates how the end of New START heralds a new, uncertain nuclear era—one less predictable and markedly more dangerous.