History As It Happens – Bonus Ep! Deciphering Iraq's Elections

Host: Martin Di Caro
Guest: Adam Weinstein, Deputy Director, Middle East Program, Quincy Institute
Date: November 26, 2025

Episode Overview

This bonus episode of History As It Happens examines the outcomes and deeper context surrounding Iraq’s recent parliamentary elections. Host Martin Di Caro and Middle East expert Adam Weinstein unpack the long-term effects of the U.S. invasion, ongoing sectarian dynamics, Iraq’s federal structure, the muted role of ISIS, and the evolving landscape of Iraqi politics—especially the prominent political actors and the influence of neighboring Iran. The discussion weaves historical legacy with current realities, making sense of how Iraq’s violent past echoes in its still-challenged democracy.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Lingering Shadows of the U.S. Invasion

• Iraqi Views of Dick Cheney and U.S. Invasion
  • Weinstein asserts that most ordinary Iraqis do not specifically think about Dick Cheney, but rather about the consequences of the U.S. invasion itself.
  • “It depends what kind of Iraqi you are...” (02:45)
    • For Kurds in the north, the invasion allowed for a quasi-independent state.
    • Sunnis in western Iraq generally lost privilege and power.
    • Shia Iraqis gained nominal control but suffered in the years following the invasion.
    • “I think the average Iraqi who lived through the Saddam era is happy he's gone, but is disappointed in Washington's follow through.” (03:38)
  • Unrealistic expectations persist: Some Iraqis wonder why the U.S. does not “reform our education system,” pointing to disillusionment but also misplaced optimism about American capacity to fix national problems. (03:51)

2. Sectarianism and Social Healing

• Persistent but Reduced Sectarianism

  • Weinstein uses the marker of “cross-sectarian marriage” as a barometer of social integration.
    • “Sunnis and Shia are marrying each other left and right. It’s actually not that uncommon.” (04:38)
  • Sectarianism remains a dormant but recurring risk, as seen in the ISIS period and ongoing undercurrents in provinces like Anbar and Mosul. (04:32-05:41)
  • Regional parallels (e.g., with Syria) influence Iraqi Sunni perspectives and aspirations. (05:26)

• Society after Trauma

  • “Wounds do heal. I'm talking metaphorically here. Societies heal after time passes. Maybe not entirely.” (04:13)

3. Iraq’s Federal System & Fragmented Politics

• A Complex Multi-Ethnic, Multi-Sectarian Federation

  • Weinstein maps out Iraq’s federalism (06:22):
    • Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG): A semi-autonomous, quasi-state region with internal factions, distinct from Arab (Sunni/Shia) Iraq.
    • Sunni regions: Strongholds in Anbar and Mosul.
    • Shia majority: Dominating from Baghdad south to Basra.
  • Political alliances cross ethnic/sectarian divisions, with minorities (Kurds, Sunnis) often choosing which Shia blocs to support.
  • Within the Shia majority, the “Coordination Framework” is a loose coalition, including both moderate factions (like Sudani’s) and others closely tied to Iran.

• Muqtada al-Sadr’s Role

  • Sadrists boycotted the recent election. Possible motives:
    • Disagreement with electoral changes.
    • Strategic ‘long game’ positioning: “He might think that he has more long-term power stepping back... than contesting in the political landscape, especially one that Iran backed Shia militias have a lot of power.” (08:21)

4. The Status of ISIS

• ISIS as a Diminished Threat
  • The group no longer plays a direct or significant role in electoral politics: “They're a factor in terms of the US-Iraq relationship... It’s almost like the country has cancer, but it’s in remission.” (09:14)
  • Vigilance remains essential, but ISIS is now more of a “background threat” than an existential crisis. (09:14-09:42)

5. The 2025 Elections: Players and Outcomes

• Election Results and Political Dynamics
  • Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani’s bloc won 46 seats; other key blocs: Takaddoum (Sunni), State of Law (Maliki), and the KDP (Kurds).
  • The result does not guarantee stability—coalition wrangling could last months.
  • Sudani’s changed position:
    • In 2021, he was elevated primarily by pro-Iran factions and was a political unknown. In 2025, he faces resistance even within his own camp—“some of those pro-Iran factions... don’t necessarily want to see him be prime minister again.” (10:10)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Iraq’s Sentiments Towards the U.S. Invasion:

  • “I think the average Iraqi who lived through the Saddam era is happy he's gone, but is disappointed in Washington's follow through.” — Adam Weinstein (03:38)

• On Cross-Sectarian Marriages:

  • “Sunnis and Shia are marrying each other left and right. It's actually not that uncommon.” — Adam Weinstein (04:38)

• On the Nature of ISIS Now:

  • “It's almost like the country has cancer, but it's in remission. You don't really have to worry about it. But you got to go for your checkup and make sure that it's not metastasizing, because once it does, it's too late.” — Adam Weinstein (09:26)

• On the Kurds’ Autonomy:

  • “You have to cross a border to get into [Kurdistan]. It feels like a different country. If you didn't tell someone it was part of Iraq, they would think it's a completely different country.” — Adam Weinstein (06:27)

• On Muqtada al-Sadr Sitting Out of Elections:

  • “He might think that he has more long-term power stepping back and trying to do things behind the scenes or just waiting out the dysfunction than contesting in the political landscape, especially one that Iran backed Shia militias have a lot of power.” — Adam Weinstein (08:29)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:00 — Episode introduction; U.S. invasion’s legacy, Iran’s influence, election results
• 02:24 – 03:38 — Iraqi public sentiment towards U.S. invasion & Cheney’s legacy
• 04:13 – 05:41 — Generational memory, healing, and state of sectarianism
• 06:22 – 08:17 — Iraq’s federal structure: KRG, Sunnis, Shia, and parliamentary coalitions
• 08:17 – 09:00 — Muqtada al-Sadr’s absence, speculation on motives
• 09:00 – 09:42 — ISIS: current status and its impact on politics
• 09:42 – 10:38 — Election mechanics, shifting dynamics within ruling coalition

Summary

This episode provides a deep dive into the complexities of Iraqi democracy, shaped by sectarian histories, post-invasion political restructuring, and persistent foreign influences. Adam Weinstein’s expert commentary fleshes out how various constituencies experience the legacy of the U.S. invasion, the resilience and limitations of Iraq's constitutional system, and the shifting alliances, especially in the wake of the 2025 elections. For those trying to understand why Iraq’s elections matter—and why the country’s stability remains fragile—this conversation offers essential clarity.