History As It Happens – Bonus Ep! Moldova's Elections / Europe's Future

Host: Martin Di Caro
Guest: Veronica Engel, assistant professor at the Robert Schuman Center for Advanced Studies at the European University Institute
Date: October 1, 2025

Episode Overview

This bonus episode examines the recent parliamentary elections in Moldova, a small Eastern European country at a geopolitical crossroads. The discussion explores what Moldova’s election results mean for its future, the wider EU-Russia struggle for influence in the region, and why events in Moldova resonate far beyond its borders in the current contest between liberalism and autocracy.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

The Geopolitical Stakes in Moldova

[02:22]

• Host Context: Moldova, a former Soviet republic with 2.5 million people, just held crucial parliamentary elections.
• The pro-EU Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) won an absolute majority (55 of 101 seats), overcoming Russian interference and alleged hybrid warfare tactics.
• The outcome has broader relevance for the EU-Russia contest, illustrating liberal democracy’s resilience against authoritarian influence.

Russian Influence and Transnistria

[04:32] - [06:37]

• Host Question: What does Moldova represent to Russia, and why does Moscow care about whether Moldova joins the EU?
• Veronica Engel:
  • Moscow treats Moldova as part of its “old sphere of influence.”
  • The “frozen conflict” in the Russian-speaking breakaway region of Transnistria provides Russia with permanent leverage.
  • Russian interest is less about immediate military presence (only ~100 real Russian officers among 1,500 "troops") and more about undermining Moldova’s EU/NATO aspirations and preventing a full Western realignment.
  • Transnistria’s de facto separation is unique—unlike Ukraine’s Donbas or Georgia’s Abkhazia—serving mainly as a destabilizing tool, not an all-out war zone.

Quote:

“This frozen conflict in Transnistria gives Russia a permanent leverage...it keeps Moldova apparently unstable. The aim was to discourage NATO or EU integration and signal that Moscow still dictates security outcomes in Eastern Europe.”
— Veronica Engel [04:59]

Moldova’s Internal Divides & Russian Tactics

[06:37] - [07:08]

• Host Observation: Soviet legacies matter. There are Russian-speaking communities and historically rooted connections in Moldova, giving Moscow an avenue for influence. Putin often justifies intervention on behalf of Russian speakers abroad.
• Veronica Engel:
  • There exist “genuinely pro-Russian politicians in Moldova that speak to pro-Russian prep…” (cut off; see quote below).

Quote:

“Yes, there are actually genuinely pro Russian politicians in Moldova that speak to pro Russian prep...”
— Veronica Engel [07:08]

The Role of Moldova’s Diaspora

[03:25]

• The diaspora (Moldovans abroad) heavily influenced the election, often voting pro-EU.
• Out-of-country polling stations were far more available in the West (e.g., 24 in Britain, 22 in the U.S., only 2 in Russia), affecting turnout and results.

The Larger Battle: Liberalism vs. Autocracy

[03:25]

• The contest in Moldova is emblematic of the wider ideological showdown in the region—democratic, Western-oriented reforms versus authoritarian, Russian-backed alternatives.

Quote:

“Even what happens in little Moldova makes international headlines. It falls within that popular framework of liberalism versus autocracy as the defining conflict of our age.”
— Martin Di Caro [03:25]

Russia’s View: Election Interference, Failed Objectives

[03:05]

• Moldovan President Maia Sandu on Russian attempts at interference:

“Russia has not achieved its objectives. It has spent a lot of money in this election, but the results show that they failed. And what Russia is doing today in Moldova is not only about Moldova, it's against the EU.”
— Maia Sandu [03:05]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• President Maia Sandu on Russian interference:
  “It has spent a lot of money in these elections, but the results show that they failed.” [03:05]

• Veronica Engel on Transnistria:
  “Most experts, and some of the government officials that I've spoken with would say that most are locals in Russian uniforms... more like security forces... The number of actual Russian officers who remain is less than 100. So it's not really an invading force, but it is a space that Russia has invested in to keep as part of its sphere of influence.” [05:30]

• Martin Di Caro on larger significance:
  “It falls within that popular framework of liberalism versus autocracy as the defining conflict of our age.” [03:25]

Segment Timestamps

• [02:22] — Episode overview, Moldova’s election basics
• [03:05] — President Maia Sandu discusses Russia’s failed objectives
• [03:25] — Pro-Russian allegations, diaspora impact, and the larger ideological context
• [04:32] — Introduction to Veronica Engel, historical background
• [04:59] - [06:37] — Russian interests, Transnistria, and Moscow’s “sphere of influence”
• [06:37] - [07:08] — Moldova’s Soviet heritage and internal pro-Russian factions

Conclusion

This episode situates Moldova’s recent elections within the broader struggle for influence between the European Union and Russia in Eastern Europe. It highlights how local disputes have outsized significance in the liberalism-versus-autocracy debate shaping the continent’s—and even the world’s—political future. Expert guest Veronica Engel provides rich historical and geopolitical context, making clear that small countries like Moldova are pivotal players in today’s ideological battles.