Podcast Summary:

History As It Happens – Bonus Ep! Peace, Putin Style
Host: Martin Di Caro
Guest: Yaroslav Trofimov (Chief Foreign Affairs Correspondent, Wall Street Journal)
Date: December 3, 2025

Episode Overview

This bonus episode tackles the ongoing war in Eastern Ukraine and the current state of peace negotiations as 2025 draws to a close. It focuses particularly on the stalled U.S.-led peace efforts under President Donald Trump’s administration, the shifting dynamics between the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine, and the broader geopolitical and economic implications. The discussion is enriched by reporting from Yaroslav Trofimov and draws direct connections between contemporary developments and historical patterns.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Stalled Promise of Swift Peace

• The war in Ukraine persists despite President Trump’s campaign claim that peace could be achieved in just "24 hours."
• Trump now admits the conflict is "more difficult than people would have any idea," citing complications with both Putin and Zelensky (00:34).
• Early attempts, such as a fruitless Alaska summit and subsequent diplomatic meetings, have produced no breakthrough. Recent U.S. envoys’ talks in Moscow led to no agreement on the latest, Russia-leaning peace plan (01:54).

2. Russia’s Manipulation of Negotiations

• Yaroslav Trofimov repeatedly emphasizes that Russia, and especially President Putin, has been playing the negotiation process to gain material and strategic advantages.
• Example: U.S. withdrawal of Tomahawk missile support and the undermining of European efforts to use frozen Russian assets for Ukrainian aid (04:20).
• The negotiation "cycles" are likened to "Groundhog Day," with repeated cycles of hope followed by setbacks—often because Putin increases demands after initial Ukrainian concessions (03:27).
• This results in weakened Western unity and strategic position, to Russia’s benefit.

3. The Origin and Nature of the Peace Plan

• The revised 28-point peace proposal originated from meetings between U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev, with involvement from Jared Kushner (04:53).
• Core Russian demands repeated since 2022: Ukraine must surrender occupied territories, forgo foreign alliances, and accept a form of disarmament (05:05).
• Trofimov stresses: "What Russia seeks is a Ukraine that is disarmed... not in a position to defend itself the next time the Russians invade." (05:18)

4. U.S. Negotiator Dynamics and 'Billionaire Diplomacy'

• Nontraditional figures like Jared Kushner (without a formal government role) are driving U.S. negotiations, causing concern among European allies and confusion within official policy circles. (06:18)
• Trofimov draws parallels to the Syria policy, where formal processes were overridden by Trump’s trust in wealthy individuals (06:36).
• Secretary of State Marco Rubio—also the National Security Advisor—has reportedly been sidelined and learns of diplomatic developments via leaks (07:23).

5. 'Peace Through Business' – Corruption and Trade

• Wall Street Journal’s reporting highlighted the Kremlin’s push for peace via lucrative business deals, with the implication that corruption benefits Trump allies but with no definitive public evidence (07:42).
• Trofimov notes: "The Russian government is dangling out a lot of carrots... offering them personally beneficial deals in exchange for basically getting Ukraine." (08:03)
• The podcast reflects on the failed Merkel-era doctrine of "cooperation through trade," which emboldened Russia and funded its military buildup, leading to today's war (08:39).

6. Putin’s Strategic Calculations

• Discussion on whether Putin actually wants to end the conflict or simply use negotiations as a reprieve to rearm and wait for better opportunities.
• Trofimov asserts: "I think he still wants all of Ukraine... if this is a pause in which he gets to rearm... he can attack again and get to Kyiv. It would be the third invasion." (09:31)
• Cites the 2014 pattern of Russia violating previous agreements and the risks of repeating history if a bad deal is made (09:56).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Trump on Peace Timeline:
  "Because it's more difficult than people would have any idea. Vladimir Putin has been more difficult. Frankly, I had some problems with Zelensky... We're trying to solve a problem." – Donald Trump (00:34)

• Trofimov on the Talks:
  "You know what it really is? Groundhog Day. We have the cycles of hopes and at the end of the day, it turns out to be much ado about nothing and we're back to square one." – Yaroslav Trofimov (03:27)

• On the Core of the Russian Plan:
  "What Russia seeks is a Ukraine that is disarmed, a Ukraine that is not in a position to defend itself the next time the Russians invade. And that is still the goal." – Yaroslav Trofimov (05:18)

• On 'Billionaire Diplomacy':
  "You have the formal US Government in Washington, and then you have the other government of President Trump and his billionaire friends..." – Yaroslav Trofimov (06:51)

• On ‘Peace Through Business’ and its Dangers:
  "Angela Merkel had the same idea... What actually happened is that this whole trade just funded the Russian war machine and enabled the invasion..." – Yaroslav Trofimov (08:39)

• On Putin’s True Aims:
  "I think he still wants all of Ukraine... in a year or two, he can attack again and get to Kyiv." – Yaroslav Trofimov (09:31)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Trump Press Q&A & War Challenges: 00:15–01:06
• Overview of Peace Efforts & U.S. Position: 01:28–02:26
• Negotiation Stalemate & Putin’s Leverage: 03:27–04:37
• Details of 28-Point Proposal: 04:53–05:50
• U.S. Negotiators & Back-channel Diplomacy: 06:18–07:42
• Corruption, Trade, and Western Unity Risks: 08:03–08:58
• Putin’s Motivations & Risks of a Pause: 09:31–09:56

Takeaways

• Both the negotiation process and U.S. internal policy are in disarray, enabling Russia to gain advantages without real concessions.
• The historical echoes of failed "peace through trade" strategies serve as a warning about repeating past mistakes with dire consequences for Ukraine and Western security.
• Putin’s endgame remains unchanged: a subjugated, demilitarized Ukraine, and negotiations are being used to further that agenda, not genuinely achieve peace.

For listeners seeking to understand not just the news, but the underlying patterns and stakes in the ongoing Ukraine conflict, this episode offers a sobering, deeply informed perspective grounded in both current events and lessons from recent history.