History As It Happens – Bonus Ep! Russia-Ukraine War w/ Mark Galeotti

Date: September 17, 2025
Host: Martin Di Caro
Guest: Mark Galeotti, Russian history & security expert (Mayak Intelligence), author of Forged in War

Episode Overview

This bonus episode delves into the ongoing Russia-Ukraine War, analyzing the grim military stalemate, failed diplomatic efforts, and the shifting roles of the US and Europe in shaping the future of Ukraine. Martin Di Caro invites historian Mark Galeotti for an expert, historically-informed discussion about why the conflict persists, what Vladimir Putin ultimately wants, and why Western responses remain muddled. The conversation also draws fascinating parallels and key distinctions with wars of the past, challenging conventional wisdom and exploring the war’s uncertain trajectory.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Status of the Battlefield

• No imminent Ukrainian collapse: Galeotti explains that while sudden battlefield collapses are unpredictable, Ukraine isn’t immediately in danger of catastrophic defeat. Russian advances remain slow, incremental, and costly.
  • Quote: "Almost certainly not... we're still thinking about it's a slow, Russian painful and bloody accretional advance... even if there is some kind of localised collapse, the Russians are very unlikely to be in a position to make the kind of deep penetrating exploitation of that collapse that would really change the situation on the ground." (Mark Galeotti, 03:33)
• Comparison to WWI: The conflict is likened to World War I—not because of style, but for its attritional, stalemated character, though Galeotti cautions against taking the parallel too far given today’s technology and dispersed battle lines.
  • Quote: "There's always this temptation to play the historical parallels game... But in this case... it's also a much more diffuse war... very, very long front line and relatively few troops per kilometer or mile of frontage." (Mark Galeotti, 04:44)

2. The “Russian Way of War” & Urban Battles

• The myth of endless Russian “meat assault” persists, but Galeotti notes that the most brutal, attritional fighting has been confined to battles over cities (e.g., Mariupol, Bakhmut), not across the entire front.
  • Quote: "This notion of meat assaults largely hasn't really manifest itself... the Russians are not looking for more meat grinders. They're looking to essentially be able to bypass and encircle cities at the moment... so they don't have to try and fight that kind of set piece battle." (Mark Galeotti, 07:13)

3. Diplomacy: Real Signals or Diversion?

• Russia post-Alaska summit: Despite public statements from Putin and his spokespeople about readiness for peace, actions and diplomacy indicate otherwise.
  • Quote: "He's certainly not signaling a particular sort of dovish propensity... he tends to escalate in the endgame... to negotiate from a position of not just strength, but extravagantly demonstrated strength." (Mark Galeotti, 08:52)
• Putin’s negotiating posture: Putin wants negotiations on his terms, with the Ukrainians coming to him, reflecting a belief that time is on his side.
• Trump’s ambiguous stance: Recent remarks suggest little new strategy or determination from the White House.
  • Quote: "If you listen closely there, it is apparent the President has no answers. Well, maybe historian Mark Galeotti does." (Martin Di Caro, 02:40)
  • Quote: "I think he's realized that worst case scenario is Trump no longer helps Putin. And so in some ways he feels liberated by that." (Mark Galeotti, 10:48)

4. Escalation Risks: Drones Over Poland and Romania

• Poland: Multiple Russian drones entered Polish airspace—Galeotti argues this was deliberate: "a combination of a test and a warning" to gauge European will and send a message as security guarantees for Ukraine are debated.
• Romania: Likely an accident due to electronic warfare, not a calculated provocation.
  • Quote: "Poland, a very different matter... all or most were decoy or reconnaissance drones... a test and a warning." (Mark Galeotti, 11:07)

5. Peace, Security Guarantees & Europe’s Coming of Age

• Beyond the Donbass: The war isn’t just about Eastern Ukrainian territory. True peace hinges on credible security guarantees, particularly from European powers, to prevent Russia from regrouping.
  • Quote: "Unless [Kyiv] feels it has proper security guarantees, it has no reason at all to talk to Putin... It is also a test of Europe's credibility." (Mark Galeotti, 12:37)
• Europe’s challenge: Years under the US security umbrella have left Europe unprepared to independently guarantee security—a major credibility gap.
  • Quote: "This is really a test of a still frankly adolescent Europe. It had infantilized itself so long by remaining underneath the American security umbrella and not taking its own security capacities at all seriously." (Mark Galeotti, 12:37)

6. Putin’s Ultimate War Aims

• Wants maximal gains, but is pragmatic: Galeotti asserts Putin desires as much as he can get—total domination if possible, but is realistically prepared for less, especially if forced into a deal.
• Non-negotiable for Moscow: No NATO membership for Ukraine is a red line.
  • Quote: "Putin is out for whatever he can get. At the point at which he feels he has to make a deal holding on to the territory he's taken, perhaps with that extra piece of Donetsk region... no NATO membership for Ukraine, I think that from his point of view is an absolute." (Mark Galeotti, 15:27)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Donald Trump’s Assessment:
  "But I'm not happy. I'm not happy about the whole situation. You know, it's interesting. It doesn't affect us because it's not our soldiers, but they're losing... between Ukraine and Russia, 7000 soldiers every single week. It's such a horrible waste of humanity." (Donald Trump, 01:36)
• On drawing historical lessons:
  "There's always this temptation to play the historical parallels game... often that's exceedingly illustrative. In this case, I think it's more that there is this regular pendulum swing of warfare between the offence and the defence." (Mark Galeotti, 04:44)
• On Europe’s crossroads:
  "This is really a test of a still frankly adolescent Europe... So can it actually support Ukraine to the point where there can be some kind of a deal?" (Mark Galeotti, 12:37)
• On Putin’s key red line:
  "No NATO membership for Ukraine, I think that from his point of view is an absolute." (Mark Galeotti, 15:27)
• On the persistence of attritional warfare:
  "That frankly counts as being as optimistic as I can bring myself to being at this current stage in the war." (Mark Galeotti, 16:34)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:40–01:36 — Kremlin’s public statements & President Trump’s remarks on Ukraine
• 03:23–04:44 — Galeotti on battlefield stability, WWI comparison
• 07:13–08:17 — The reality and myth of Russian offensive tactics
• 08:52–10:29 — Galeotti analyzes Putin’s diplomatic signals post-Alaska summit
• 11:07–12:21 — Russian drones in Polish and Romanian airspace: risks and messages
• 12:37–14:33 — Debating real peace: territory, security guarantees, and Europe’s role
• 15:27–16:21 — What does Putin really want? Shifting ambitions and core demands
• 16:34–16:41 — Cautious optimism—unlikely collapse, but continued attrition

Tone & Style Notes

The conversation is grounded in sober, clear-eyed realism, laced with scholarly skepticism, but avoids sensationalism or despair. Both host and guest use historical depth and contemporary analysis in a way that is both accessible and intellectually satisfying, challenging simplistic narratives and urging listeners to weigh long-term consequences and political realities.

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