History As It Happens: Cornered Ayatollahs
Host: Martin DeCaro
Episode Release Date: June 24, 2025
Introduction
In the June 24, 2025 episode of History As It Happens, host Martin DeCaro delves into the escalating tensions between Iran and Western powers, particularly the United States and Israel. Titled "Cornered Ayatollahs," the episode explores Iran's persistent nuclear ambitions, the regional power struggle, and the historical underpinnings that have shaped the current crisis.
Background on Iran's Nuclear Program
The episode opens with archival audio of Ayatollah Khomeini declaring, "Iran has never given up its quest for nuclear weapons and the missiles to deliver them" (00:52). This statement sets the tone for the ongoing discourse on Iran's nuclear ambitions. Historian Gregory Brew, Eurasia Group Senior Analyst in Iran and Energy, provides a comprehensive overview of Iran's nuclear history.
Brew explains that Iran's nuclear program dates back to the 1970s under the Shah, emphasizing its multifaceted purposes: energy development, technological advancement, and national prestige. He notes, “The nuclear program has served a number of purposes... it is an important source of prestige” (08:50). This program has been pivotal not only for energy diversification but also as a strategic deterrent against regional adversaries.
Current Conflict and Military Actions
The podcast transitions to recent military actions, highlighting the U.S. and Israel's campaign against Iran's nuclear facilities. President Trump's assertion, "The ayatollahs have no choice but to give up the program" (01:26), underscores the aggressive stance taken against Iran’s nuclear ambitions. An Israeli Military Official claims, "Iran's key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated" (01:57), signaling significant blows to Iran's nuclear infrastructure.
Despite these strikes, Ayatollah Khomeini remains defiant, stating, "America negotiated from a position of strength and principle... when you threaten the region and Israel, you threaten America" (00:55). This defiance illustrates Iran's unwavering commitment to its nuclear objectives, viewing them as essential to national sovereignty and resistance against perceived Western aggression.
Internal Dynamics within Iran
Gregory Brew provides an in-depth analysis of Iran's internal challenges exacerbated by the nuclear conflict. He outlines a legitimacy crisis fueled by economic hardships, corruption, and public discontent over repression issues like press censorship and strict social laws. Brew explains, “Developing a nuclear deterrent is going to be of increasing interest to the elite” (11:35), as the regime perceives the nuclear program as a bulwark against both external threats and internal dissent.
An Intelligence Community Analyst echoes these sentiments, stating, “Iran continues to seek expansion of its influence in the Middle East... Iran's cyber operations and capabilities also present a serious threat to US Networks and data” (02:57). This underscores the multifaceted nature of Iran's strategy to maintain regional dominance amidst mounting pressures.
International Reactions and Geopolitical Implications
The episode examines the broader geopolitical landscape, noting the isolation of Iran on the international stage. Martin DeCaro highlights the lack of regional allies for Iran, stating, “It’s Israel backed by the most powerful nation. Iran has few friends willing to help it” (07:08). This isolation is further compounded by the strategic interests of neighboring countries like Turkey and the Gulf States, who view a weakened Iran as beneficial to regional stability.
Brew adds, “The weakening of Iran... could end up being the best case scenario for everybody involved” (25:56), suggesting that a reduced Iranian threat may lead to a regional power realignment and decreased proxy conflicts.
Historical Context and Shifts in US-Israel-Iran Relations
A significant portion of the discussion focuses on the historical shifts in relationships between the United States, Israel, and Iran. Brew references John Ghazvinian's America and Iran, highlighting Israel's transition from a relatively neutral stance towards Iran in the 1980s to perceiving it as the paramount regional threat in the 1990s. He states, “The ideology of the Islamic Republic... is anti-Zionist and anti-Western” (34:10), emphasizing how entrenched hostilities have evolved over decades.
Ghazvinian's analysis, as discussed by Brew, posits that post-Cold War optimism gave way to heightened fears of Iranian aggression, leading Israel to advocate for a more confrontational approach. This historical pivot is critical in understanding the present-day tensions and the uncompromising rhetoric emanating from both sides.
Analysis by Gregory Brew
Throughout the episode, Gregory Brew provides nuanced insights into the complexities of Iran's nuclear ambitions and the broader geopolitical implications. He argues that Iran's pursuit of nuclear capabilities is not solely militaristic but deeply rooted in national pride, technological advancement, and strategic deterrence. Brew cautions against oversimplifying Iran's motivations, stating, “There is this idea... that developing a nuclear weapon is the key to maintaining power” (14:15).
He also discusses the potential pathways Iran might take in response to military pressures, including the dangerous possibility of overtly pursuing nuclear weapons as a deterrent against further Western intervention. “Developing a threshold status but remaining open to negotiation would be enough to avoid military escalation,” Brew notes, but acknowledges that recent aggressive actions by Israel undermine this delicate balance (15:32).
Conclusions and Future Outlook
As the episode concludes, Martin DeCaro and Gregory Brew reflect on the precarious future of Iran-West relations. Brew warns of the “greater danger in doing nothing” for Iran, which could invite renewed military action and potential regime instability (16:51). The discussion suggests that unless diplomatic avenues are revitalized, the cycle of aggression and retaliation may intensify, leading to broader regional destabilization.
DeCaro posits, “Nuclear weapons don’t prevent all wars from happening, but they could prevent wars from going too far” (17:32), highlighting the paradoxical role of nuclear capabilities in deterring large-scale conflicts while not eliminating the risk of smaller, yet significant, hostilities.
The episode closes with a somber outlook, emphasizing the urgent need for effective diplomacy to navigate the turbulent waters of Middle Eastern geopolitics and prevent further escalation into open conflict.
Notable Quotes
- Ayatollah Khomeini: "Iran has never given up its quest for nuclear weapons and the missiles to deliver them." (00:52)
- President Trump: "The ayatollahs have no choice but to give up the program." (01:26)
- Israeli Military Official: "Iran, the bully of the Middle East, must now make peace." (04:03)
- Intel Analyst: "Iran continues to seek expansion of its influence in the Middle East." (02:57)
- Gregory Brew: "Developing a nuclear deterrent is going to be of increasing interest to the elite." (11:35)
- Martin DeCaro: "Nuclear weapons don’t prevent all wars from happening, but they could prevent wars from going too far." (17:32)
Final Thoughts
The "Cornered Ayatollahs" episode of History As It Happens offers a comprehensive look into the intricate web of historical grievances, strategic ambitions, and geopolitical maneuvering that define Iran's current stance against Western powers. Through expert analysis and poignant archival clips, listeners gain a deeper understanding of the forces shaping one of the most volatile regions in the world today.