← History As It Happens
History As It Happens
From Atatürk to Erdoğan
00:41:27
A century after Kemal Atatürk galvanized the Turkish people and founded modern Turkey on the ashes of the Ottoman Empire -- and upon new principles of secularism, populism, and republicanism -- the current president is turning Turkey into an...
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- [00:01]
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- [00:28]
Martin DeCaro
History as it happens. April 11, 2025 from Ataturk to Erdogan in Turkey.
- [00:35]
Gnul Tol
A huge demonstration is again being staged in Istanbul in support of the city's.
- [00:39]
Martin DeCaro
Mayor to protest the arrest of the city's mayor. Key rival President Erdogan says more than.
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Gnul Tol
1100 people have been detained after days of protests.
- [00:49]
Advertiser
President Erdogan has been in power for 22 years.
- [00:52]
Martin DeCaro
Turkey's strongman, Recep Erdogan is ruling like an autocrat, jailing political opponents and journalists unwilling to loosen his grip after more than two decades in power. Democracy in Turkey, a NATO ally, never had a golden age. But it was once admired in the west for its commitment to secularism, populism and nationalism. The principles of Kemalism. Kemal Ataturk. That's next as we report history as it happens. I'm Martin DeCaro.
- [01:22]
Historical Narrator
Kemal Ataturk, the man who turned the face of his country from the east to the West.
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Military Analyst
In Turkey today, the face of authority wears a helmet, carries a rifle. The unrelenting face of a military takeover.
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Advertiser
The first Coup occurred in 1960 after the ruling party loosened some of Ataturk's secular rules.
- [01:39]
Martin DeCaro
Scenes of a military occupation in Turkey's major cities. The military now says.
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Gnul Tol
And despite Erdoan's best efforts to erase Mustafa Kemal Ataturk's secularist legacy, Ataturk remains the most revered, most well respected Turkish leader in the country. And I would say his popularity grew because of Erdogan's efforts to erase his legacy. Just last year, I remember a lot of people on the anniversary of his death, tens of thousands of people went to Anut Kabir, where his mausoleum is, to pay him a visit and to pay their respects.
- [02:23]
Martin DeCaro
On October 12, 1953, Time magazine published an article with the headline the land of a Dictator turned into a Democracy. In one century, the sick man of Europe has become the strongman of the Middle East. If not the paradise that propagandists sometimes paint. Turkey is stable, strong, democratic, progressive, booming. No nation stands so steadfast against Russia in NATO. It is the free world's strong southern anchor. In the Korean War Its brigade was the BB Brigade. The bravest of brave Turkish landing fields put us strategic air half an hour away by jet from the Baku oil fields of Russia. This article says the country's dramatic changes were ushered in by a force of nature named Mustafa Kemal Kemal Ataturk, Father of the Turks. Although a dictator, the report says he worked miracles in just 15 years from 1923 to his death in 1938.
- [03:21]
Historical Narrator
They mourn him in the modern Turkey that he created. From the flickering embers of a dying empire, he rekindled the flame of a state that has once again found its place among among the nations. With his work accomplished, he died. In the streets of Istanbul, they stand sorrowfully to watch the passing of a dictator. In the days when it was known as Constantinople, it was governed by a sultan. But Kemal Ataturk changed the old order. He brought them freedom. The meaning of his name was Father of the Turks. He won their victories in the Dardanelles. He led them in successful battle against the Greeks in Asia Minor. He was their hero. And time will show how the passing of a dictator may affect the course of history.
- [04:01]
Martin DeCaro
In A History of the Modern Middle East, William Cleveland writes, Ataturk was an inspired and inspirational leader, one of those rare figures whose exceptional talents were available to meet a challenge to which they were perfectly suited. A member of the Ottoman military elite whose reputation was established on the battlefields of the First World War and the War for Independence, he renounced grandiose schemes of glory and accepted the less rewarding task of pragmatic nation building. He used the immense powers he acquired as president to establish respect for the law and to lay the groundwork for popular participation in government. To be sure, his reforms were too abrupt for some and his creation of a state that sought to regulate individuals lives more directly than had the Ottomans caused resentment and occasionally led to resistance. His sweeping secular measures, which attempted to cut the Turks off from their Islamic past and to sever their ties with the rest of the Islamic world, alienated segments of the population, especially in rural areas. And his goal of remaking Turkey in the image of Europe was offensive in certain quarters. He was not a selective reformer, but a committed Westernizer. The authoritarian features of Ataturk's republic arouse suspicions in the west. But the democratic institutions he established have endured again. That is William Cleveland writing in the 1990s. He might not write those words today, but even then in the 90s, Turkey had already gone through three military coups. In 1960, 1971 and 1980.
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Military Analyst
The Turkish army carried out their bloodless coup just before dawn on Friday, September 12th. They detained the prime minister, the major party leaders and the heads of labor unions. They dissolved government and parliament. They outlawed political parties. A state of siege already covered half the country. The military extended it throughout.
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Martin DeCaro
This last military takeover lasted about two years, ending when once again the military gave back power to the civilians under a new constitution. This time, as Cleveland says, despite the three military interventions, Turkey's commitment to a multi party democratic system endured. And the achievements of the various governments since 1950, albeit uneven, were on the whole impressive, especially if we remember that Turkey was experiencing a major social and economic transformation during these years. And he mentions 1950 there because that is the first time a new party won a majority in the parliament. The Democratic Party, it was called, and that completed the transition to multi party democracy. Now the military would intervene in Turkish politics again in the mid-1990s. Although not a coup in the name of preserving secularism and democracy, the most recent coup attempt in July 2016 was crushed and Turkey's president Recep Erdogan exploited it to crack down on all opponents. A military coup attempt appears to have faltered in Turkey.
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Gnul Tol
Forces loyal to the government helped take back the country.
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Martin DeCaro
His regime has only grown more repressive since. In a new article for Foreign affairs, the official publication of the Council on Foreign Relations, Gnl Tol says, just days before Turkey's main opposition party was set to select its next presidential candidate, the leading contender, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imomolu, was arrested and jailed, effectively removing him from the race. In this brazen act of political suppression, the Turkish government has taken a momentous step toward full fledged autocracy. You know, Erdogan was born just a year after that Time article I mentioned at the start. He is 71 years old and apparently wants to rule Turkey until he is 91 or longer. Another autocrat or wannabe autocrat in an increasingly authoritarian world where the rule of law is swept aside by strongmen who feel their countries simply cannot do without them. Gnuul Tol is director of the Middle East Institute's Turkish Program and the author of Erdogan's A Strongman's Struggle at Home and in Syria. Our conversation next History is defined by.
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- [08:29]
Martin DeCaro
Vote Gnul Tol welcome to the podcast.
- [08:33]
Gnul Tol
Thanks for having me.
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Martin DeCaro
So I really enjoyed reading your piece in Foreign Affairs. Turkey is now a Full Blown Autocracy reads the headline. Because I have been fascinated with global political developments and this authoritarian lurch that we're witnessing in Turkey, Hungary, Russia, China, maybe even the United States. Implied in your headline, Turkey is now a Full Blown autocracy is the idea that this has been a process that's been underway for some time leading to this point.
- [09:05]
Gnul Tol
The main argument there is Erdogan has recently taken a huge step that would really pave the way for him, turning the country's competitive authoritarian regime into a Putin style autocracy. So that is to suggest we're not there yet, we are not Putin's Russia. But that's what Erdogan has in mind and it could go there, but it will take some time. And to your second question, whether this has been an incremental process, he has taken incremental steps. You are absolutely correct. And it's important to note this because there was no Rubicon, right? Erdogan came to power in 2002 and he captured 37% of the vote, which was huge. And thanks to Turkey's unique electoral law, that 37% translated into a huge mandate in the Turkish Parliament. But his initial steps shortly after coming to power actually were very much in line with a strong reform agenda. That reform agenda secured him the backing of unlikely constituencies like myself, liberals, conservatives, Turks, Kurds, Islamists, secularists. So his number one goal was to curb the military's power in politics. Historically, Turkish military considered itself the guardians of the secularist republic, and they played a very important outsized role in Turkish politics. So when Erdogan came to power, his number one goal was to make sure that military did not play that dominant role in politics. So to achieve that goal, he put together a coalition, an ideologically really wide coalition consisting of the groups that I had just mentioned. And in order to appeal to these unlikely constituencies, he embraced a reform minded agenda. And those reforms Erdogan's government carried out during the early years of its tenure liberalized the country's political system. However, in retrospect, some of those reforms actually paved the way for Erdogan's power grab in later years. And even during the reform years, there were troubling signs of what was to come. For example, Erdogan used state institutions to stop the rise of his political opponents. He took these tiny little steps in an effort to keep his wide, ideologically wide coalition together. Number one. And number two, he didn't want to provoke the secularist establishment. And three, he wanted the Western world on his side. So that's why if you look at his early years, you would praise his reform agenda. But if you go back, you realize all those red flags. And I'll tell you one specific instance that came really early in his tenure. In 2004, the Turkish government's savings Deposit Insurance fund seized control of 200 companies owned by a man called Cem Usan. He was a businessman whose newly established political party had risen to challenge Erdogan's ruling party. And Cemuzan had launched the Young party in 2002. And to the surprise of many, the party captured 7% of the vote in 2002 elections. And the party's popularity kept growing after the elections, prompting Erdoan to state that our only rival is the Young Party. And later, Uzan was accused of siphoning $5.8 billion from the company's flagship bank and the Ulan Group's holdings, including Turkey's first private TV channel and several newspapers. These were all seized and sold to pay back his debts. A media group, Doan Media Group, which at the time had good relations with the Erdogan government, purchased Start TV and the newspaper was sold to a pro AKP business group. And this was in 2004. So it was one of the earliest dance in Erdogan's carefully crafted image of a reformer. Later on we can talk about other turning points.
- [13:33]
Martin DeCaro
Someone can be or a leader can become more autocratic over time because there is a process of shifting from a democracy. And Turkey had been a multi party democracy for quite a while after World War II. Prior to World War II, under Ataturk or Kemalism, it was a one party state. But back to my point here, sometimes my sentences or questions can go on for quite a bit. Gone Ul. But this is your first time on the podcast, so you'll get used to it. The shift from a democratic democracy to an autocracy can be sudden. I mean, I'm reading a book about the Nazis and Adolf Hitler right now. In January 1933, when Hitler came to power, Germany was not quite yet a fully authoritarian, dictatorial police state with no civil liberties. In short order, Hitler and the Nazis did make it that for Erdogan. It seems like this process has been going on for a couple of decades now. Was he once a democrat? Because you brought up Putin. Putin was never a democrat, but he's become more authoritarian over time.
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Gnul Tol
Yes, it took more than two decades for Erdoan to turn Turkey into what it is today. And Martin, you mentioned Hitler and Stalin and the steps that they took. Well, modern day autocrats are different than 20th century dictators, right? Today's autocrats, they don't gather thousands of people and shoot them. They need the facade of democracy. They build their legitimacy on the ballot box, so they need all of that. So they use more subtle methods to consolidate power in their hands. And Erdoan is not different. Before Erdoan came on board, Turkish democracy was an imperfect democracy, right? Courts were never independent. And we had a military playing an outsized role in politics. And then we had the Kurdish question. Turkey has a large Kurdish minority, and yet they have been denied basic rights for many, many decades. So those were the problems that Erdogan inherited. But Erdogan took Turkey's imperfect democracy and turned into a textbook case of a competitive authoritarian regime. Now, it is competitive because we do have legitimate political parties. They are not underground. Those political parties can field candidates. Sometimes, even though it happens rarely, incumbents can lose. And let's remember, in 2024, Turkey held municipal elections where Erdogan's AKP lost all major cities. And you might say, well, it's just municipal elections. But holding municipalities and the vast financial resources has been the backbone of Erdogan's client listed network. That's one of the reasons, one of the things that has kept him in power. So losing those municipalities was a huge deal. It dealt a huge blow to Erdogan's rule. So that is to suggest that even as late as Last year, in 2024, Erdogan's ruling party lost elections. So that's why we call Turkey's regime a competitive authoritarian regime. It's competitive, but it's authoritarian because Erdogan controls everything. It controls media, it controls courts. And he changes the rules of the game so frequently that the playing field is not fair. So that is to say, electoral competition is real, but it's unfair. But with this step, I think it was 10 days ago, Erdogan decided to jail his top opponent. Turkey will hold electionspresidential elections in 2028. And Istanbul Mayor Ekram Imamoglu is Erdogan's most formidable rival. And Erdoan jailed him. So with that step, Erdogan is taking a huge step towards turning Turkey into Russia, where the president hand picks his own opponents to make sure that there are no surprises. Surprises at the ballot Box.
- [17:42]
Martin DeCaro
That's right. Ekrom Imamolu, the mayor of Istanbul, the largest city in Turkey, a country of about 85 or 90 million people thrown in jail on bogus charges, it seems, of terrorism. And as you say, this is Erdogan trying to regain or re establish the foundation of his power because these municipal elections went against him. Imamolu is an opposition politician, but now he's choosing his own opponents for the upcoming presidential race, 2028. Does he have to change Erdogan, change the constitution to allow him to run again? Or has that already been done?
- [18:20]
Gnul Tol
Yeah, he has two options. So according to the current constitution, Erdogan cannot rerun in 2028, but he has a plan. So two things can happen to solve his problem. One, if the Turkish Parliament calls for early elections, in that case, Erdogan is allowed to rerun. And the number two option is to draft a new constitution that will allow him to rerun. But he doesn't have the parliamentary majority to do any of those things. So in order to solve that, Erdogan recently launched an initiative talks with the Kurdish militant group. It's called the pkk. The PKK has been is considered a terrorist organization by Turkey, by the United States and others, and it's been waging an insurgency against the Turkish state since 1984.
- [19:11]
Martin DeCaro
That's right.
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Gnul Tol
The PKK's leader has been in jail since 1999. Right. So Erdogan recently launched talks with the PKK's imprisoned leader, Abdullah. So what is the goal there? Erdogan wants to make sure that the PKK lays down arms. And he's hoping that by doing that, he will secure the support of the Pro Kurdish party in the Parliament. The Pro Kurdish party is one of the opposition parties in the Parliament. Obviously, they are legal and they have. They have many seats in the Parliament. So Erdogan thinks that if Abdullah urges his fighters to lay down arms, that will have an impact on the Pro Kurdish party, and they will support Erdogan's plans to rerun in 2028. So that's where we are now. Now, the question of whether that could work, that strategy could work, is a whole different question. But Erdogan certainly wants to run in 2028. And he does have a plan in place.
- [20:18]
Martin DeCaro
So a new constitution, maybe the current one, comes from 1982, which was the third time in 20 years when the Turkish High Command stepped into the political arena and ousted the sitting government. And as William Cleveland writes in his book, A History of the Modern Middle east, which I've used Many, many times to prepare for conversations about this region of the the world. The intervention of 1971 by the military had ended the political turmoil, but did not address its causes. The generals of 1980 were determined to restructure the political system. They achieved this goal largely through the drafting of a new constitution. As mentioned, 1982 was passed in a national referendum. It strengthened the powers of the president by giving him the authority to appoint the prime minister and to dissolve the National Assembly. It also provided for tighter government control of universities, trade unions and the press. To reduce the influence of the small political parties. A new electoral law denied parliamentary representation to any party that did not receive 10% of the vote. So it sounds like Erdogan is making some of these moves based inside the legal system. They're legal, but he's also doing other things that appear to contravene the law. Do you agree with that? His purging of the judiciary?
- [21:37]
Gnul Tol
Yes, certainly. But before that, let me say something. Yes, the current constitution is Based on the 1982 Constitution drafted by the junta. But there have been several amendments that have been made by Erdogan since then, most notably in 2017. That was when there was a referendum, constitutional referendum put to the people, and Turkey became an executive presidency. So it's not like we are using an ancient constitution here. Several amendments have already been made. I don't think a new constitution is what Turkish people need at that point, but it's certainly a priority for Erdogan for his own political reasons. And going back to your question about, I mean, how legal are some of Erdogan's steps? Well, I think with this latest move, with his latest attack against Imam Olu, and that's not the first time. I mean, Turkish jails are full of Erdogan support. Currently, aside from Ekram Imam al Istanbul mayor, we have another opposition party leader in jail. He is the leader of the far right party. And since 2016 we have Selahtin Demirta, who at the time when he was jailed, he was the leader of the Prokurish Party. And he was jailed mainly because he was opposed to Erdoan's efforts to switch the country's parliamentary system to an all powerful presidency. And he's been in jail since then. Clearly, Erdogan has no respect for the rule of law or what the constitution says.
- [23:11]
Martin DeCaro
He's making a mockery of it.
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Gnul Tol
That's exactly right. And he has been undermining the courts and the rule of law for a very long time now. But several turning points in that process and one was in 2010, 2011, when he restructured the courts, appointing his loyalists. But another huge turning point came after the coup attempt against Erdogan in 2016. And that effort failed. But he used the coup attempt as an excuse to restructure the courts further. Thousands of judges who were critical of Erdogan, they were purged. And instead, Erdogan staffed those courts, courts with loyalists. So I would say that if, I mean, look at Turkey's courts now, they are completely controlled by Erdogan. If you look at all the international indexes, rule of law indexes, Turkey is at the very bottom.
- [24:10]
Martin DeCaro
Are you familiar with Freedom House? They do a ranking every year of all the countries in the world, they have Turkey ranked or give a Turkey a score of 33 out of a hundred, 100 being most free. So 33 out of 100 is terrible. And Turkey is now in the not free category.
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Gnul Tol
That's right. And particularly important is the rule of law indexes. Again, Turkey is just on the bottom of that list. And that is compared to Central Asian countries. Turkey is now grouped with countries that are in Central Asia and also Eastern Europe. So that. That's a horrible score.
- [24:50]
Martin DeCaro
And as you wrote here in Foreign affairs, after that failed coup attempt by military officers in 2016, which Erdogan and his party linked to a movement whose members populated other branches of government and public institutions, Erdogan brought the judiciary under his authority by purging thousands of judges and replacing them with loyalists. The media has been muzzled too. You write more than 90% of Turkish media outlets are owned by pro government businesses. And independent journalists are routinely jailed. So I raised the issue earlier about how does a democracy become an autocracy? Well, here in Turkey, and this debate is happening in the United States now as well, we may assume that certain things won't happen or can't happen until somebody tries them, and then who's going to stop them? So Erdogan isn't waging a revolution here. He hasn't overthrown the current system. He's gutting it. How would you put it?
- [25:47]
Gnul Tol
He has co opted some groups and some institutions. But it's important here. And you mentioned the US Case here. I think one of the problems of Turkish democracy has always been a lack of independent bourgeois class. Turkey's business class has always been dependent on the state for its survival. And you know, if you talk to political scientists that they will say, some will say that it's, it's very important for democratic consolidation to have an independent bourgeois class. So that was never the case with Turkey even before Erdogan. And Erdogan came to power and he took things to a whole new level. Now you have a business organization, they are completely aligned with Erdoan's agenda and they benefit from him. So he established this huge client listed network. And that's one of the reasons why it's very difficult to wage a fight against autocrats like Erdogan. Business groups are part of that coalition. In the Russian case, it's Putin's oligarchs. Right. Erdoan has a similar thing. And I'm seeing a similar dynamic emerging here in this country too. If you remember Trump's inauguration and the picture there where you have big tech giants lined up right behind President Trump and also Jeff Bezos decision not to endorse Kamala Harris in the Washington Post. And that is because Jeff Bezos has business interests elsewhere. And that's exactly what Turkey's business class problem has been. So they purchase a media outlet and release favorable coverage for Erdoan and they make money elsewhere. That has been the business model. And that's exactly what's happening here. Although I must say, obviously in this country, we're lucky to have a relatively independent business group, business class. So that will certainly help the fight against autocrats or wannabe autocrats like Trump in the long run.
- [27:44]
Martin DeCaro
Because there is a debate now about how interrelated all these autocrats are, all these autocratic or authoritarian movements. Right. I mean, there is something to that global trend. But what's happening inside Turkey is more important to what's happening inside Turkey, if you know what I mean.
- [28:01]
Gnul Tol
Martin, I'm so glad you raised this because I've been living in Washington for many years now and I've dealt with different U.S. administrations. And I remember I had this conversation a few years ago with a Biden administration official where this was right before Turkey held its presidential elections in 2023. And at the time I was on the ground traveling across the country, the field research, and I had never seen popular opposition against Erdogan that strong. So I came back to Washington and I talked to people from the Biden administration and I conveyed them this. I said, you know, this is a very critical moment. I think if the opposition doesn't make a major mistake, if they pick the right candidate, feel the right candidate, it's very possible that they can win. And at the time, they told me that, you know, elections in Erdogan's Turkey did not matter. That was the first thing that they said. They said, you know, this is almost like Putin's Russia, Erdogan will continue to win. So there's no way the opposition is going to win Erdogan at the ballot box. So that was the number one thing that I heard when. Which I did not like because it's not accurate. And the second thing that I heard from these American officials was that, you know, Turkey is an important country. What happens inside Turkey is Turk's own business. When we look at Turkey, we see a country, a big NATO ally, a country that we need to realize our own geopolitical goals. So this brings me to the point that you made. That's something that we've been hearing from American administration officials over and over again, because they see Turkey as a valuable ally from a geopolitical point of view. And my answer to that is, first, as I said in my piece, Turkey is not Russia. Erdogan may aspire to become Putin, but Turkey is not Russia. We're not there yet. Which means that there is a strong. Almost half of the country is opposed to Erdogan. And number two, Turkey is an important geopolitical ally. But in today's world, where there's this huge fight between autocracy and democracies. Right. So you cannot just ignore domestic developments in a country like Turkey, as big and as important as Turkey, just as.
- [30:20]
Martin DeCaro
Turkey's own business, domestic policy affects foreign policy. That was going to be my next question as to, you know, why does Erdogan want to stay in power forever in Russia? Putin has a certain vision of where he wants to take Russia to re establish Russian greatness and its sphere of influence over at least some parts of Eastern Europe, namely Ukraine. What's with Erdogan? He obviously is asserting his autonomy in geopolitical affairs and foreign policy. Despite being a member of NATO, Turkey is certainly not a liberal democracy anymore, may not even be a secular democracy anymore. He sees himself as a broker. Right? I mean, this was the subject of your book, Erdogan's Foreign Policy.
- [31:00]
Gnul Tol
Well, your first question was, why does er, don't want to stay in power forever? Well, because it's. It's a pretty good job. It pays really well, too.
- [31:08]
Martin DeCaro
That's true. But his goal, he must have some goal, right? Of or he wants to take Turkey.
- [31:13]
Gnul Tol
Well, he does, but I think at the heart of everything is just his personal. Like anyone else, like Trump here in this country, they just want to stay in power forever. And Turkey pursuing an independent foreign policy, to me, is not a problem that happens elsewhere. It's the world we live in, everyone. It's a Transactional world. So countries increasingly pursue independent foreign policies. That's not a problem in itself. But my problem is how autocrats like Erdogan use foreign policy to consolidate their autocracy at home. And Erdogan has done this brilliantly. He used his close ties with the Western world, for example, to consolidate his one man rule. When he first came to power, one of the reasons why he was able to attract or appeal to these unlikely constituencies was that because he promised that he was going to get Turkey into the European Union. So there he used a foreign policy goal, a foreign policy agenda to justify what he was doing at home. And Today, this is 2025, and there are just so many problems going on in the world. Several wars, from the Gaza war to Russian invasion of Ukraine. So that means the international environment is so chaotic, particularly Western countries are so desperate to do something to defend themselves against a resurgent Russia without American help, that they turn to autocrats like Erdogan. And that could be justified if you look at it from a European point of view. But if you are a Turk who is really worried about your country's democratic future, these European countries, the Western countries turning a blind eye to Erdogan, jailing his opponents is a huge deal. And this international environment context emboldens Erdogan. I don't think if Trump had not returned to the White House, Erdogan would think twice before taking such a dramatic step and jailing his top opponent. So, yes, international environment has a direct impact on the next moves of these autocrats at home.
- [33:34]
Martin DeCaro
Both of them matter, the international environment and the domestic scene. He does want to be a broker in the Russia Ukraine war. I mean, how successful might he be there?
- [33:44]
Gnul Tol
Shortly after Russian invasion of Ukraine, Turkey played a very significant role as a mediator between the parties, but also because of the initial steps that Turkey took. If you remember, shortly after Russian invasion, Turkey called it a war, which allowed Turkey to use this Montreal Convention to shut down the straits. And by shutting down the straits, Turkey has full control over the straits. Erdogan almost limited the Russian Navy's room for maneuver. After that, Turkey supplied Ukraine with Turkish made drones. So all these steps, early steps, really turned Turkey into a very significant actor in the Ukraine war. But I would say as of 2025, don't get me wrong, Turkey is still a very important partner. And that's one of the reasons why Secretary Marco Rubio met with his Turkish counterpart twice in a very short period of time, because they want a ceasefire in Ukraine. And the US sees Turkey as a very important ally to achieve that goal. But there's another regional actor that has been playing an increasingly important role, and that is Saudi Arabia. Not just in regional affairs, from Gaza to curbing Iran's influence to what's happening in other parts of the region. But also it has been hosting talks between Russia and Ukraine. And President Trump will pay his first visit, a foreign visit to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf. And that suggests that Turkey is not the only actor there.
- [35:28]
Historical Narrator
The military leader who won his country's freedom, then built and ruled a modern Turkey is dead. Elected to succeed him is General Ismet Inonu, the former premier. Under Ataturk's 15 year rule, Constantinople was renamed Istanbul and became a Westernized city of modern, well planned buildings.
- [35:49]
Martin DeCaro
So historically here, how important today are the secular and populist principles of Kemalism as we see this one time democracy turning more and more into an autocratic police state form of government?
- [36:04]
Gnul Tol
Well, pretty important. And despite Erdogan's best efforts to erase Mustafa Kemal Ataturk's secularist legacy, Al Tatuk remains the most revered, most well respected Turkish leader in the country. And I would say his popularity grew because of Erdoan's efforts to erase his legacy. Just last year, I remember a lot of people on the anniversary of his death, tens of thousands of people went to Anut Kabir, where his mausoleum is, to pay him a visit and to pay their respects. In many ways, it's people's response to Erdogan's Sunni Islamist vision for the country. And I think you can also see the reflection of Ataturk's growing popularity in also election results. The chp, which was founded by Ataturk himself.
- [36:59]
Martin DeCaro
The Republican Party, right?
- [37:01]
Gnul Tol
Yeah. The People's Republican Party, the chp, it's become increasingly popular. In the past, it appealed to this marginal constituency, strong secularist constituency. But today the party is able to capture votes from beyond that narrow constituency. So that is also, I think that also suggests that Erdogan has been doing everything to make sure that Ataturk remains a marginal figure. And it's backfired.
- [37:30]
Martin DeCaro
His reforms Ataturk, not Erdogan. His reforms after the end of the Ottoman Empire were really fascinating to read about when I was preparing to talk to you here. How he turned modern Turkey into the state.
- [37:41]
Historical Narrator
It became impatient with former methods. Ataturk banished ancient ways, substituting machinery in an oriental land. Under his one party government. Factories increased as he industrialized Turkey. The social revolution he accomplished was widespread.
- [38:00]
Martin DeCaro
The military, as mentioned, also has a history here of Intervening when it believes the country's leaders are moving in the wrong direction. I mean, how powerful is the military today? I mean, the 2016 coup did not go very well. Could the military remove Erdogan? Does it even have that type of power or clout?
- [38:20]
Gnul Tol
Well, I think they are two different questions. If you ask me how strong Turkish military is, I would say, and I would only refer to military leaders, NATO and others, that Turkey's military, in terms of military capability, it remains a very powerful force. It's often cited as NATO's second largest army. Turkey's domestic defence industry has been growing, making a Turkish military even more formidable. But if you ask me whether Turkish military is strong enough to wage a coup against Erdogan, that is a very difficult question to answer because it's become a black box. But I can tell you this Turkish military has never been as politicized as it is today. Erdoan. Since the failed coup attempt in 2016, Erdogan has taken several steps to make sure Erdogan loyalists are appointed to top positions. And as an outsider, as an outside observer, you can see how politicized Turkish military has become. I remember this instance where Turkey was about to launch another military incursion into Syria. And I remember seeing the images of Turkish soldiers flashing the sign of the ultra nationalist party. And that is something that I had not seen before now that ultra Nationalist parties, Erdogan's close ally. So that was one of the eye opening moments for me to realize how politicized Turkish military has become. And there are also, it's not just the far right party supporters that are increasing their influence in the military, but there are also some Islamic brotherhoods whose members have been promoted to higher ranks by Erdoan. And also the doctrine itself, Kemali's doctrine has been. Erdogan has been trying to undermine that. And now Erdogan has been injecting more Islamic and religious education into the military curriculum. So all these things suggest to me current Turkish military is more in line with Erdoan's vision than before.
- [40:37]
Martin DeCaro
Well, the fascinating thing about those military interventions, 1960, 1971, 1980, which led to the 82 constitution, was that the Turkish military gave back power. They gave back power to the civilians. The military wanted there to be at least some level of democratic politics restored in the country, which often does not happen in other countries when the military takes power.
- [41:02]
Gnul Tol
That's right. I mean, in the Middle east, for example, you see military coups and the military stays in power for decades and decades. That's not been the case with Turkish military. They consider themselves as very powerful professional and politics something to stay away from in their own narrative. They intervene at times when there's strong public backing, when there's chaos in the streets, on the streets, and when the military deems what the civilian government is doing is against the secularist principles. Those are the moments when the military intervenes and they leave power shortly after. Of course, this is not to suggest that they are legitimate interventions in any way. Those political interventions have truly undermined both the country's democratic institutions and democratic political culture.
- [41:53]
Martin DeCaro
On the next episode of History As It Happens, what is anti Semitism? Were the campus protests last year anti Semitic? If you oppose Israel's government, does that make you anti Semitic? Or pro Hamas? Is anti Zionism anti Semitism? We'll talk about this pressing issue with historian Omer Bartov next as we report History as it Happens. New episodes every Tuesday and Friday. My newsletter every Friday. Just go to Substack and search for History as It Happens.