History As It Happens – "German Hegemony" (Feb 20, 2026)
Episode Overview
This episode, hosted by Martin Di Caro, explores the rapid rearmament of Germany within the wider context of European security, transatlantic relations, and historic anxieties about German power. Guest Liana Fix—historian, political scientist, Senior Fellow for Europe at the Council on Foreign Relations, and Georgetown professor—joins to discuss Germany’s unprecedented military spending, the motivations behind it, and the complicated reactions of its allies and neighbors. Drawing on Fix’s Foreign Affairs essay, the conversation investigates whether German power can be effectively restrained and embedded in collective European structures, especially as the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) rises in the polls.
Key Discussion Points and Insights
1. Why Is Germany Rearming?
[06:45, 08:21]
-
Germany is now the fourth largest military spender in the world, surpassing all European nations and trailing only the US, China, and Russia. Its projected defense budget will soon equal the combined British and French budgets.
-
The catalyst:
- Immediate trigger: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 began the change, with the Zeitenwende (“change of times”), but
- Major turning point: The 2024 election of Donald Trump revived European fears of weakened US commitment to NATO, spurring German policymakers to open the floodgates to defense spending.
-
Liana Fix [06:45]:
“Germany is the fourth largest spender… at 162 billion euros defense spending, which is actually not that far away from what Russia spends this year… as much as the British and the French defense spending combined."
-
It's not just about following the US lead or responding to a single administration:
“Part of the reason why Germany is rearming is because they know they have to defend Europe against Russia, especially if the United States is not providing what it has provided in the past.” [08:21]
2. What Is Germany Buying and Why?
[09:38]
- Major investments: Replacing equipment sent to Ukraine, new air defenses, tanks (for the largest conventional army in Europe), and notably, long-range precision strike missiles – "the best that it can get below nuclear weapons".
- The motivation is deterrence. Germany wants to ensure that Russia understands it can strike deep targets without having nuclear weapons.
- Liana Fix [09:38]:
“Germany is investing in long precision strike missiles, which is basically from a German perspective, the best that it can get below nuclear weapons to establish some kind of deterrence with Russia…"
3. The Threat Perception: What Is Germany Actually Worried About?
[11:04, 12:29]
- Not a direct tank invasion. The concern is a limited Russian land grab ("fait accompli”) in the Baltics, a drone attack, or other provocations—especially if the US hesitates to uphold NATO Article 5.
- Recent war games highlight European unpreparedness for such scenarios without American support.
- Liana Fix [12:29]:
"The Europeans know that if Russia tries to test the Article 5, there's a fair chance that they might be successful… Europeans see their rearmament as a way of re-establishing deterrence with Russia, even without the United States.”
4. Historical Anxiety and European Balance of Power
[14:02, 15:56, 16:05]
-
European neighbors publicly welcome German rearmament but have “concerns about political dominance by Germany,” not fears of renewed militarism per se.
-
Legacy of division and dominance: Historically, Germany held economic dominance while France led militarily; German military buildup disrupts that balance, raising questions for France and Poland about their own influence and whether Germany will remain effectively "embedded" in European structures.
-
Liana Fix [14:02]:
“Behind closed doors, there’s not really a fear about a militarist Germany as it has been in the past, apart from if right wing extremists would come to power in Germany… The question for Europe’s neighbors is really a question of balance.”
-
Partner cooperation vs. national interests: Without strong integration, France and Poland may seek to counterbalance Germany, risking a return to national rivalries.
-
Liana Fix [16:05]:
“At the end, in all areas where member states have weight and power and influence, Germany will be the number one. And that basically means that you can't say no to Germany anymore because Germany is calling the shots on all issues.”
5. The Risk of a Far-Right Government (AfD)
[02:40, 25:22, 26:04, 27:45]
-
The firewall remains—mainstream parties refuse to cooperate with the radical-right AfD, now leading or nearly leading in polls.
-
The AfD is more radical than typical European right-wing parties and has ties to revanchist thinking, including connections to German expellee groups and nostalgic rhetoric regarding former territories.
-
Liana Fix [25:22]:
“It is much more radical, much more radical than [other European right-wing populist parties]… The AfD has traditionally always been in favor of Germany’s rearmament. They want an independent military, powerful Germany…”
-
AfD platform includes hints at potential irredentist claims (e.g., toward Polish borders), willingness to leave NATO/EU, and closer ties to Russia.
-
Liana Fix [27:45]:
“I wouldn't be surprised if the AfD wouldn't try to bully or coerce neighbors both to the east and to the west…”
-
Poland acutely fears the possibility of both German (AfD) and French (Le Pen) far-right governments controlling powerful national militaries—a scenario many see as a nightmare.
6. Domestic and Societal Risks of Rearmament
[29:30, 30:34]
-
Host Martin Di Caro notes: "It’s a damned if they do, damned if they don’t scenario." Rearmament risks:
- Distorting the domestic economy
- Fostering distrust among neighbors
- Making society more militaristic or prone to a permanent war footing
-
Liana Fix [30:34]:
“If even Germany… with its long history and tradition of seeing itself as some kind of pacifist power after 1945… sees the need and the majority of Germans see the need that you need to have some kind of defense, I think then it’s fair to say there is some kind of risk level because Germans usually don’t tend to be the ones who are exaggerating this…”
-
She argues Germany can, and has, demilitarized rapidly in the past (post-Cold War downsizing), so long-term militarism is unlikely unless global security trends overwhelmingly push it that way.
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
-
On why Germany is suddenly spending:
“What has really changed for Germany was not Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. It was the election of Donald Trump… [which] led German policymakers to finally, finally open the floodgates of German debt spending.”
– Liana Fix [06:45] -
On European worries:
“It’s not really the concern that Russia will invade Germany. It’s more the concern that Russia can move closer to Germany’s borders, that Russia can basically neutralize opposition, especially in central and eastern Europe. In the end, Europeans will have no alternative but to appease Russia if they can’t stand up with military strength.”
– Liana Fix [11:04] -
On German military contracts:
“It’s not exclusively contracting with German firms, but it’s largely contracting with German firms… There is a very strong home bias in European defense… but no one is rearming on the scale that Germany is doing.”
– Liana Fix [16:32] -
On the AfD:
“Since its foundation 2013, it has only become more radical and has actually been called by the German intelligence an extremist domestic organization.”
– Liana Fix [25:22] -
On legacy and public memory:
“The Second World War was not a distant memory for people then. And the fear, of course, was German militarism, German revanchism, that a unified Germany would be powerful again and we could have another war. That seems crazy from our vantage now in 2026…”
– Martin Di Caro [24:21] -
On societal consequences of rearmament:
“If even Germany… sees the need and the majority of Germans see the need that you need to have some kind of defense, I think then it’s fair to say there is some kind of risk level…"
– Liana Fix [30:34]
Timestamps for Key Segments
- [06:45] – Germany’s leap in military spending: reasons and international context
- [09:38] – What Germany is actually buying; focus on deterrence strategy
- [11:04] – German fears: Russia’s possible moves & the weakness of deterrence without US
- [14:02] – European neighbors’ complex feelings—welcoming and wary
- [25:22] – The rise of the AfD, far-right threats & revanchist possibilities
- [29:30] – The domestic and societal drawbacks and dilemmas of rearmament
- [30:34] – Germany’s deeply pacifist self-image—and what it tells us about the times
Conclusion
The episode underscores the paradox at the heart of German and European security: decades of military restraint fostered trust, but today’s security environment, shaped by Russian aggression and doubts about US protection, is forcing a fundamental rethink. While neighbors outwardly support German rearmament, many worry about the risks of unchecked German dominance or a far-right turn. The conversation highlights the persistent, historically rooted questions of power, trust, and balance that lie beneath contemporary European politics.