History As It Happens: Episode Summary – "Goodbye Assad / Hello Who?"

Release Date: December 13, 2024
Host: Martin Di Caro
Special Guest: Safa Sechin, Expert on Syria and Middle East Security at Nazareth University

Introduction

In the episode titled "Goodbye Assad / Hello Who?", host Martin Di Caro delves into the seismic shift in Syrian politics marked by the sudden downfall of Bashar Al Assad after more than five decades of authoritarian rule. This historic event concludes a 13-year-long civil war that few anticipated would culminate in Assad's ousting. The episode explores the intricate dynamics that sustained the Assad dynasty, the emergence of new power players in Syria, and the uncertain future that lies ahead for the war-torn nation.

The Fall of Assad

The episode opens with vivid imagery of the final moments leading to Assad's fall. Historical Analyst and Safa Sechin provide context about Assad's rise to power in 2000, following the death of his father, Hafez Al Assad, who had governed Syria since 1970.

Notable Quote:

Rebel Leader (00:34): "The dictator is done."

This declaration by a rebel leader encapsulates the dramatic end of Assad’s reign. The rebels, primarily Islamist fighters with ties to Al Qaeda, seized Damascus, signaling a turning point in Syrian history.

Martin Di Caro narrates:

"Bashar Al Assad is gone. Syria's 13-year-long civil war at long last brought his tyrannical regime crumbling to the ground. A historic event few anticipated." (00:39)

The fall of Assad raises critical questions about Syria's future and the legitimacy of the new power structures emerging in the aftermath of his regime.

The Assad Regime’s Longevity

Safa Sechin provides an in-depth analysis of how the Assad dynasty maintained power for over five decades despite significant internal and external challenges.

Key Factors for Longevity:

1. Authoritarian Toolbox:

   • The regime's reliance on violence and repression to silence dissent, exemplified by the Hama massacre in 1982 and the use of barrel bombs in 2013 (02:24).
   • Safa Sechin (12:19): "The regime never avoided using sheer violence against its population. Right. So we saw this in Hama in 1982."

2. Balancing Ethnic and Religious Divisions:

   • Integration of minorities, particularly Alawites, into key positions within the military and intelligence sectors to secure loyalty (12:19).
   • Safa Sechin (14:48): "The regime has done a good job of playing on the ethnic and religious divisions within Syrian society."

3. International Alliances:

   • Strategic partnerships with Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah provided military and economic support, crucial during pivotal moments like the 2016 Russian intervention (12:19).
   • Safa Sechin (18:33): "These international alliances provided a lot of flexibility and power for the Syrian regime."

These pillars created a formidable structure that sustained Assad's rule despite widespread unrest and international condemnation.

Unraveling the Military and International Support

The military, once a cornerstone of Assad’s power, began to falter amid prolonged conflict. Safa Sechin explains how the Syrian army's effectiveness declined due to low morale, insufficient pay, and fatigue from 13 years of war.

Notable Points:

• Martin Di Caro (17:30): "Bad morale, low pay, from what I've read, a lot of younger recruits."
• Russia's diminished capacity to support Assad due to its involvement in the Ukraine war and overstretched resources contributed to the regime’s vulnerability (18:33).

The shifting international focus and the overextension of Russian resources left Assad's regime exposed, enabling the rebel factions to gain ground rapidly.

Emergence of New Factions

With Assad's fall, several key factions vie for control over Syria’s fragmented landscape:

1. Hayat Tahrir Al Sham (HTS):

   • An Islamist group formerly linked to Al Qaeda, now rebranded to distance itself from terrorist affiliations.
   • Led by Ahmed Al Shara, HTS seeks to establish its own governance model while maintaining a complex relationship with other factions and international actors (08:47).

2. Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF):

   • A Kurdish-led coalition backed by the United States, controlling significant territories in northeastern Syria.
   • Safa Sechin (25:39): "If the US withdraws from Syria, SDF would be losing its international support."

3. Syrian National Army (SNA):

   • A heterogeneous group supported by Turkey, primarily composed of defectors and volunteers opposing Kurdish autonomy (27:52).

4. Other Groups:

   • Druze militias and remnants of the Islamic State add to the volatile mix of armed entities within Syria.

Notable Quote:

Rebel Leader (08:28): "At long last, the Assad regime has fallen."

The power vacuum left by Assad’s departure complicates Syria’s path forward, with various factions holding divergent visions for the country’s future.

Historical Context of the Assad Dynasty

The episode provides a comprehensive history of the Assad family's rule, tracing its roots back to Hafez Al Assad’s rise to power in 1970. Safa Sechin outlines the Assad dynasty's strategic maneuvers to maintain control:

Key Historical Points:

• Ba’ath Party Coup (1963):

  • Establishment of a single-party system, suppressing political pluralism (32:42).

• Hafez Al Assad’s Consolidation (1970):

  • Final consolidation of power through military coups and elimination of rivals.
  • Introduction of socialist policies and nationalization efforts aimed at stabilizing the economy (35:53).

• Hama Massacre (1982):

  • Brutal suppression of an Islamist uprising, cementing the regime’s reputation for cruelty (38:33).

• Economic Policies:

  • Shift from an agrarian economy to one focused on oil exports and industrialization, though hampered by the regime’s prioritization of military expenditure over domestic development (43:58).

Notable Quote:

Safa Sechin (38:16): "Ba’athist ideology tried to integrate various elements of secular nationalism, socialism."

The Assad regime’s history is marked by a delicate balance of oppression, strategic alliances, and economic maneuvering, which together sustained its authoritarian grip for decades.

The Alawite Minority and Assad’s Rule

The Assad family's Alawite background played a crucial role in the regime’s stability. Safa Sechin explains the significance of this sect in a predominantly Sunni Muslim Syria:

Key Insights:

• Alawite Integration:

  • Hafez Al Assad’s recruitment of Alawites and other minorities into key security and military positions ensured loyalty within the regime (35:53).
  • Safa Sechin (41:21): "Most of the individuals that he puts into the positions of power in the military and intelligence come from Druze and Alawite families."

• Cultural and Religious Manipulation:

  • The regime exploited ethnic and religious divisions to prevent unified opposition, creating a sectarian balance that marginalized Sunni dominance.

Modern Implications and Future of Syria

As Assad's regime collapses, Syria faces an uncertain future marked by fragmentation and potential conflict among emerging factions. Safa Sechin emphasizes the challenges in achieving a cohesive state amidst competing interests:

Future Scenarios:

1. Fragmented Governance:

   • Different regions may be governed by conflicting factions, leading to a de facto partition of the country (24:35).

2. International Interventions:

   • Continued involvement by external powers like Turkey, the US, and Israel could exacerbate tensions and hinder peaceful transitions (27:24).

3. Autonomy vs. Unity:

   • The SDF’s aspirations for autonomy clash with Turkey’s opposition, raising the possibility of renewed armed conflict (26:57).

Notable Insight:

Safa Sechin (43:58): "There are important differences and tensions between different factions."

The episode underscores the complexity of Syria’s situation, where historical grievances, ethnic divisions, and geopolitical maneuvers converge, leaving the path forward fraught with uncertainty.

Conclusion

"Goodbye Assad / Hello Who?" provides a thorough examination of Syria's tumultuous journey from Assad’s authoritarian rule to its recent collapse. Safa Sechin and Martin Di Caro highlight the enduring legacy of the Assad dynasty, the intricate web of internal and external forces that maintained its power, and the precarious balance of power among newly emerging factions. While the fall of Assad is a momentous victory for the Syrian people, the episode concludes with a cautious outlook on the potential for achieving a just and inclusive political system amidst ongoing fragmentation and external influences.

Final Quote:

Safa Sechin (51:46): "We can say that it's a moment to celebrate for the Syrian people the fall of the regime. But it's also realistic to think about what's going to come next."

Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Rebel Leader (00:34): "The dictator is done."
• Martin DeCaro (00:39): "Bashar Al Assad is gone. Syria's 13-year-long civil war at long last brought his tyrannical regime crumbling to the ground. A historic event few anticipated."
• Safa Sechin (12:19): "The regime never avoided using sheer violence against its population."
• Safa Sechin (18:33): "These international alliances provided a lot of flexibility and power for the Syrian regime."
• Rebel Leader (08:28): "At long last, the Assad regime has fallen."
• Safa Sechin (25:39): "If the US withdraws from Syria, SDF would be losing its international support."
• Safa Sechin (38:16): "Ba’athist ideology tried to integrate various elements of secular nationalism, socialism."
• Safa Sechin (41:21): "Most of the individuals that he puts into the positions of power in the military and intelligence come from Druze and Alawite families."
• Safa Sechin (51:46): "We can say that it's a moment to celebrate for the Syrian people the fall of the regime. But it's also realistic to think about what's going to come next."

Resources and Further Reading

For those interested in exploring more about the topics discussed in this episode, Safa Sechin’s analytical essays on The Conversation (The Conversation.com) provide in-depth insights into the evolving situation in Syria. Additionally, Martin Di Caro encourages listeners to subscribe to his weekly newsletter for updates and further analysis.

Stay tuned for the next episode of History As It Happens, where Martin Di Caro explores the political shifts in Georgia, the former Soviet republic, as it navigates its commitment to joining the European Union.