History As It Happens: "Khamenei's Revolution"

Host: Martin Di Caro
Guest: Roham Alvandi, Associate Professor of International History and Director of the Iranian History Initiative at LSE
Date: March 24, 2026

Brief Overview

This episode examines the life, rule, and legacy of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader from 1989 until his assassination in 2026. Host Martin Di Caro and guest historian Roham Alvandi detail how Khamenei—once a relatively minor cleric—became an unexpected successor to Khomeini and subsequently steered Iran sharply away from potential reform. The discussion tracks how Khamenei’s choices closed off avenues for progress, fueled decades of anti-Western hostility, deepened Iran’s internal repression, and shaped the broader Middle East through proxy conflict and nuclear brinkmanship.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Khamenei’s Rise to Power

• Formative Years & Early Political Engagement

  • Khamenei, a student of Khomeini, rose from a low-ranking cleric to join the anti-Shah opposition during the 1960s ([06:49]).
  • Inspired by political Islam, influenced by Sayyid Qutb’s works ([06:49]).

• Consolidation of Power after the Revolution

  • Initially part of a circle of trusted clerical students close to Khomeini ([25:42]).
  • Slowly ascended through various positions: Friday Prayer Leader, Deputy Defense Minister, and finally President (a ceremonial role at that time) ([08:00]).
  • Became Supreme Leader in 1989, in part because others saw him as weak and controllable ([08:00], [28:51]).

Quote:
“He was a kind of fairly second-tier figure...but after the victory of the revolution and the toppling of the Shah in 1979, he slowly made his way closer and closer to the center of power.” – Roham Alvandi ([06:49])

2. The System: Republic vs. Theocracy

• Elected vs. Unelected Structures

  • Iran’s system has both elected (presidency, parliament) and unelected (Supreme Leader, Guardian Council) bodies ([10:43]).
  • Over time, Khamenei and allies subsumed the republic aspect under the theocratic institutions, eliminating meaningful reform ([10:43]).

• Blocking Reformers

  • Khamenei consistently thwarted moderate and reformist efforts using both institutional levers and direct repression ([10:43], [51:54]).
  • The possibility of change through peaceful, electoral means all but vanished after the 2009 Green Movement ([48:21]).

Quote:
“What he's going to be remembered for more than anything is the man who never missed an opportunity to miss an opportunity as far as putting Iran on a trajectory to some kind of more democratic future.” – Roham Alvandi ([08:00])

3. Khamenei’s Conservative Vision & Isolationism

• Determinants of Hardline

  • Sought to act as a “brake” against internal reform and external normalization ([39:36]).
  • Saw his core mission as the guardian of the 1979 revolution’s ideology—anti-American, anti-Zionist ([33:55], [39:36]).

• Fear of Collapse: Lessons from Abroad

  • Conservative faction, including Khamenei, drew caution from the Soviet Union’s collapse and preferred the tough response of China’s Tiananmen crackdown ([36:02]).

Quote:
“He saw his role essentially as being the guardian of the revolution itself and protecting the revolution against any kind of deviation, but also against the danger of internal collapse.” – Roham Alvandi ([39:36])

4. Turning Points: War and Policy Shifts

• Iran-Iraq War Aftermath

  • The trauma of war (1980–1988) depleted revolutionary zeal and fostered domestic desire for normalcy ([13:32]).
  • The 1990s initially offered hope for change, with Rafsanjani pushing pragmatic reforms ([30:32]).

• Missed Opportunities and Western Relations

  • Iran’s exclusion from the Madrid Peace Conference after the Gulf War reinforced its paranoia and isolation ([31:04]).
  • Occasional windows for rapprochement (Clinton, Obama, post-9/11 Afghanistan) were repeatedly undermined on both sides ([46:15]).

Memorable Moment:
“A revolution that eats its own, huh?” – Martin Di Caro ([15:48])
“Absolutely.” – Roham Alvandi

5. Proxy Warfare and Regional Ambitions

• Expansion of Influence
  • Khamenei championed arming and sponsoring proxies (Hezbollah, Houthis, Shia militias) to extend Iranian influence without direct confrontation ([41:57]).
  • This approach capitalized on regional vacuums after U.S. interventions and the Arab Spring, although it eventually backfired, increasing Iran’s pariah status ([43:09]).

Quote:
“The United States is essentially creating political vacuums in the region… [Iran] is kind of opportunistically filling these vacuums… by sponsoring proxies…” – Roham Alvandi ([41:57])

6. Domestic Repression and the 2009 Green Movement

• Evolving Repression
  • Prior to 2009, some possibility for change existed—voters could effect limited change through the ballot box ([48:21]).
  • The violently suppressed Green Movement closed the last door to peaceful reform, cementing Iran as a police state ([48:21]-[50:14]).

Quote:
“The Islamic Republic since 2009 has been digging itself into a deeper and deeper hole, essentially…They instituted a security state that has never gone away since and has actually become worse...” – Roham Alvandi ([50:23])

7. Nuclear Dilemma and Geopolitics

• Khamenei’s Calculated Restraint
  • Continued the Shah’s nuclear ambitions, balancing national pride, strategic ambiguity, and risk avoidance ([55:43]).
  • Allowed the JCPOA nuclear deal, issued a fatwa declaring nuclear weapons un-Islamic, seeking deterrence without fully provoking the West ([55:43]).

Quote:
“Khamenei, I think…and the guards…tried to maintain this kind of ambiguity around it, at the same time quietly developing the capabilities in case it was ever needed one day...” – Roham Alvandi ([55:43])

8. Legacy and Final Assessment

• Disaster for Iran
  • Khamenei’s rule blocked all reform, entrenched theocracy, encouraged widespread corruption, and fostered unprecedented domestic repression ([58:31]).
  • He left Iran internationally isolated, economically stagnant, and politically repressed.

Quote:
“He could have been the leader who led Iran away from the dark legacy of Ayatollah Khomeini, and he could have been the one who allowed Iran to go down the path of reform and detente with the West. But he did exactly the opposite.” – Roham Alvandi ([58:31])

Notable Quotes & Memorable Exchanges

• “He seems to have been a permanent fixture in the lives of most Iranians.” – Roham Alvandi ([06:49])
• “There are pragmatists and hardliners in Tehran…there are also pragmatists and hardliners in Washington D.C. and they…feed off each other.” – Roham Alvandi ([46:15])
• “Iranians are craving, you know, some kind of change in Iran. It's just tragic to me that change may come at a tremendous cost to them.” – Roham Alvandi ([58:31])

Important Timestamps (MM:SS)

• [06:32] – Roham Alvandi joins; overview of Khamenei’s rise
• [08:00] – Explains how Khamenei was maneuvered into Supreme Leadership
• [10:43] – On the structure of Iran’s political system (elected vs. unelected)
• [13:32] – Effects of the Iran-Iraq War and the push for normality
• [28:51] – Rafsanjani orchestrates Khamenei’s rise to Supreme Leader
• [31:04] – US Middle East policy and Iran’s exclusion from diplomacy
• [39:36] – Khamenei’s personal vision and post-9/11 hubris
• [41:57] – Iran’s proxy strategy in the region
• [48:21] – The Green Movement and the closure of peaceful reform
• [55:43] – Khamenei’s calculations around nuclear weapons
• [58:31] – Final assessment of Khamenei’s legacy

Tone and Language

• The conversation is serious, scholarly, and sobering, with candid assessments and evidence-based arguments.
• Alvandi’s tone is clear, direct, and at times mournful regarding missed opportunities and lost potential for Iran.

Conclusion

The episode presents Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as a tragic, central figure in modern Iranian history: a leader who, against all odds, consolidated immense personal power, eliminated the possibility of peaceful reform, and repeatedly chose isolation and repression over engagement and progress. His ultimate legacy, as the episode argues, is one of opportunities missed, freedoms lost, and a nation driven ever deeper into crisis—a legacy written in the lives of millions of Iranians and manifested in the turbulent history of a region still shaped by his choices.