History As It Happens: "Kleptocracy and Genocide in Sudan"

Host: Martin Di Caro
Guest: Alex de Waal (Scholar at Tufts, World Peace Foundation)
Release Date: September 30, 2025

Overview

This episode investigates the ongoing catastrophe in Sudan—a civil war marked by kleptocratic rule, genocide, and man-made famine. Host Martin Di Caro talks with Alex de Waal, leading Sudan expert and analyst of conflict economies, about how Sudan’s tortured recent history set the stage for today's crisis. The discussion challenges simplistic democracy-vs-authoritarian frameworks, focusing instead on "geocleptocracy," the political marketplace, and international indifference.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Sudan’s Modern History: Roots of Conflict

• Sudan achieved independence in 1956 from a British-Egyptian condominium, but inherited deep internal divisions:
  • Wealthier northern Muslim/Arab region vs. poorer Christian/animist south.
  • Post-independence, these divides led to several civil wars:
    • First (1955–1972), Second (1983–2005), leading to South Sudan's independence in 2011.
    • Darfur and other marginalized regions further destabilized by violent policies and resource struggles.
• “[Sudan] is near collapse on all levels—political, security, economic, social, humanitarian, health.” —Alex de Waal [01:17]

2. Darfur Genocide & the Janjaweed Connection

• The Darfur region’s social fabric was devastated by 1980s drought, economic collapse, and state neglect, which led impoverished Arab nomads to take up arms—eventually, the Janjaweed militia.
• Government incentivized ethnically-charged violence to quash rebellion and seize land.
• Fascinating generational dynamic: original Janjaweed formed from socio-economic crisis; one generation later, the RSF (Rapid Support Forces) arise as a militarized, business-oriented successor.
• “We see the emergence from a social crisis with something that looks very ancient into something that is thoroughly modern... politics conducted in a very ruthless, mercenary way.” —Alex de Waal [13:14]

3. Today's Civil War: RSF vs. Sudan Armed Forces

• Since 2023, Sudan’s main antagonists are:
  • Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) under General Abdel Fattah al Burhan (backed by Egypt/Saudi Arabia)
  • Rapid Support Forces (RSF), descendants of the Janjaweed, under General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo ("Hemetti") (backed by UAE)
• Both sides accused of atrocities, ethnic cleansing, use of famine as a weapon.
• RSF particularly targeting ethnic Masalit, Fur, Zaghawa communities in Darfur, with recordings of atrocities circulated and celebrated internally.
• “The RSF is besieging a city called El Fasher... If that town were to fall... very real fear of large-scale ethnic massacre.” —Alex de Waal [18:38]

4. The Logic of Violence: Kleptocracy and the Political Marketplace

• Both sides operate with a logic of "kleptocratic war"—pursuing material gain, political deals, and military contracts instead of ideology.
• Outside powers (Egypt, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey) back proxies for strategic and economic gain (land, gold, mercenary labor).
• “Corruption is the operating principle of politics. It is not the exception; it is the rule... a brutal, naked version of mafia politics.” —Alex de Waal [24:05]
• Democracy is not a motivating force here. Interventions, such as peace talks or aid, are about deals, not values.
• “If you try and understand the politics of Sudan... through classic geostrategy or democracy versus authoritarianism, [it] doesn't take you very far. There is another logic at work here... geocleptocracy, the political marketplace. What's at stake is the deals...” —Alex de Waal [35:26], repeated motif

5. The Humanitarian Catastrophe: Famine as a Weapon

• Massive displacement: 12 million driven from their homes (about 1 in 4 Sudanese), millions facing crisis-level food insecurity, unknown but high child mortality from starvation.
• Both SAF and RSF weaponize hunger:
  • RSF loots and destroys food sources.
  • SAF blocks aid for political/military leverage.
• Estimates: “There are something like 800 or 900,000 people in Sudan in famine conditions, possibly as many as 8 million in emergency conditions. And it is quite possible that half a million or more people, mainly children, will have died from hunger and disease over the last year and a half.” —Alex de Waal [30:55]

6. International Response and Diplomacy

• Declining international attention: No large-scale peacekeeping as during Save Darfur era.
• Current diplomacy aims more at deals between regional backers; peacekeeping or democratization unlikely.
• “This type of peace process is not intended to lead to democracy... a series of short-term commercial and security deals... to secure the interests of the military, political, commercial elite.” —Alex de Waal [39:13]

7. Comparisons, Broader Reflections

• Links between famine in Sudan & conflict-driven starvation in Gaza.
• Modern famines are almost always man-made via siege, war, government policy, not natural disaster.
• “Starvation cannot be targeted... If you besiege and starve the entire population, you know for sure that the armed men will starve last, and the most vulnerable, the sickest, the weakest, will starve first.” —Alex de Waal [42:16]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “There will never be peace in Sudan until there’s accountability for the atrocities committed by the twin butchers of Darfur.”
  (Alex de Waal, 01:17)

• “The world’s number one gold emporium [UAE] is interested in acquiring land because it believes in climate change... Sudan is an excellent one.”
  (Alex de Waal, 36:16)

• “The formula that the Arab states have is: we will do the hard work, we will do the real negotiation, but then we will take our outcome to the White House. And we are quite happy for President Trump to take the credit, to say, I'm the one who did this.”
  (Alex de Waal, 38:36)

• “Corruption is the operating principle... it is the rule. It is exactly that same system... a mafia style of politics.”
  (Alex de Waal, 24:05)

• “The fact is, we don’t really know [humanitarian numbers]. It’s very, very hard to get data. What is clear is that the humanitarian situation has gone from bad to worse.”
  (Alex de Waal, 30:55)

• “This is the biggest famine and the worst famine in the world by the numbers today.”
  (Alex de Waal, 31:46)

• “If we should falter... in our will to use [the UN Charter], millions now living will surely die… the time for action is here. Now.”
  (Archival quote read at 46:25)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Background on Sudan’s history and independence: 03:00–05:15
• Darfur genocide, the Janjaweed, and rise of RSF: 09:07–14:00
• Current civil war mechanics and genocide: 17:13–19:53
• The political marketplace & kleptocracy explained: 22:32–25:16; 35:26–36:16
• International patronage, resource deals: 36:06–38:36
• The famine, numbers, weaponization: 30:55–31:46; 40:05–43:36
• Global pattern of man-made famine: 43:53–46:01

Tone and Language

Alex de Waal speaks with measured urgency and scholarly depth, referencing first-hand experience and historical context. Di Caro’s tone is clear and probing, providing essential framing for listeners less familiar with Sudan.

Summary Takeaways

• Sudan’s agony is rooted in colonial legacies, economic collapse, and elite-driven, corrupt violence, now worsened by international deals and regional power struggles.
• The war is more about profit, power, and survival for elites than ideology or democracy.
• Millions are suffering, with international attention in severe decline, and diplomatic action limited by realpolitik and transactional interests.
• Modern famine and genocide are avoidable—caused by deliberate policy and failure of will, not inevitable disaster.

For Further Reading:

• Alex de Waal's work on the "political marketplace" and Sudan
• Declan Walsh reporting in the NYT
• Anne Applebaum’s coverage in The Atlantic
• UN and humanitarian group reporting on current Sudan famine