Regime Change: Israel in Lebanon 1982

Summary

History As It Happens

Episode: "Regime Change: Israel in Lebanon, 1982"

Host: Martin Di Caro

Guest: Dr. Aaron Bregman (Historian; former IDF officer; author of "Israel's Wars")

Date: March 27, 2026

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Episode Overview

This episode examines Israel's long and troubled history of military interventions in Lebanon, focusing on the 1982 invasion and its lasting consequences. Host Martin Di Caro and historian Aaron Bregman reconstruct the roots and repercussions of Israel's attempt at "regime change"—supporting the election of Bashir Gemayel as Lebanese president—and analyze the parallels between past and present Israeli operations in Lebanon, including the ongoing conflict with Hezbollah. Through personal anecdotes, historical context, and critical commentary, the episode explores cycles of violence, foreign interference, and the persistent instability in Lebanon.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Historical Context: Israeli Interests in Lebanon

[19:34]

• Long before Israel's statehood (1948), Zionist leaders saw southern Lebanon (up to the Litani River) as strategically essential—primarily for water resources.
• Efforts to annex or gain access to the Litani River were rebuffed internationally by the mid-1950s.

Quote:
"Early Zionists, those who wanted to establish a Hebrew, not a Jewish, a Hebrew state in Palestine, they would pressure on the French and on the British that the northern border of Israel will be the Litani River... The main thing...was water." — Aaron Bregman [19:34]

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2. The PLO and the Road to Civil War

[23:40–25:34]

• Post-1967, the PLO was expelled from Jordan (Black September, 1970) and relocated to Lebanon, effectively creating a "state within a state."
• The 1969 Cairo Agreement granted the PLO autonomy within Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon, fostering tensions with the Lebanese state and other sectarian groups.

Quote:
"You had always armed groups which worked sometimes in contradiction to the interests of the state. At the time, it was the PLO... Now...you have Hezbollah carrying guns, challenging Israel and Israel is bombing Lebanon. Nothing has changed, Martin." — Aaron Bregman [25:56]

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3. Foreign Intervention Fuels the Lebanese Civil War

[29:24–31:53]

• Israel backed the Maronite Christian militias, who requested support against Palestinian guerrillas.
• Syria intervened to support the Maronites in 1976, creating complex alliances.
• The weakness of Lebanon's central government made it a battleground for regional powers.

Quote:
"It's a beautiful country with beautiful people, but it is the Battleground for other armies and people and groups. Syrians, Israelis, PLO, Palestinians, everyone is fighting in this land with the Lebanese government having very little control." — Aaron Bregman [27:00]

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4. Israeli Calculations and the 1982 Invasion

[31:53–38:00]

• Israel sought an opportunity to intervene militarily; the attempted assassination of its ambassador in London was used as a pretext.
• The official aim: eradicate the PLO in southern Lebanon, but the deeper agenda—overthrow the Lebanese government and install Bashir Gemayel, a Maronite ally.
• The invasion, expected to last days, dragged on for 18 years.

Quote:
"Lebanon is a complex...place. And whenever...the Israelis go there, it starts. Well, it ends in tears... It was supposed to last between 48 and 72 hours. It lasted 18 years." — Aaron Bregman [17:26]

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5. The "Regime Change" Plan and Its Aftermath

[36:10–41:28]

• Israel's covert support began in the 1970s: arm and train Maronite militias.
• Bashir Gemayel is elected president with Israeli backing (and tactical help moving parliamentarians).
• Gemayel is assassinated two weeks later, leading to chaos and reprisals.

Memorable Story:
[37:52]
Bregman retells how Gemayel, before his inauguration, thanked Israeli officers and promised a celebratory night out—a night that came only weeks before his assassination.

Quote:
"He promised us, he promised us the officers of the first floor, 'If I'm elected, I'll take you to Casino Duliban in Junia and we will celebrate together.' ...He was elected...and guess what? He took us to Casino Duliban. ...And he was assassinated." — Aaron Bregman [37:52–40:07]

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6. The Sabra and Shatila Massacre & International Condemnation

[47:45–49:46]

• Following Gemayel's death, Maronite militias massacred Palestinian civilians in the Sabra and Shatila refugee camps (with Israeli forces' complicity).
• The world and even US officials condemned Israel's indirect responsibility.

Quote:
"It was impossible for the Phalange...to do what they've done without Israeli permission. They were sent in by the Israeli Chief of Staff, Raphael Eitan—not to do a massacre, but...this was his justification for sending in...the Falange to go in. And it was a big massacre." — Aaron Bregman [49:46]

US Official:
"Israel must have learned that there is no way it can impose its own solutions on hatreds as deep and bitter as those that produce this tragedy." — US Government Official / Secretary Shultz [49:26]

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7. The Birth of Hezbollah: Unintended Consequences

[52:16–54:22]

• Israel's occupation of southern Lebanon and destruction of the PLO indirectly enabled the rise of Hezbollah, a new, Iran-backed Shia militant group, which proved to be a far more entrenched adversary.
• The open letter (charter) issued by Hezbollah in 1985 set the terms for ongoing resistance against Israel.

Quote:
"The moment the Israelites invaded, the Iranians sent instructors to East Lebanon, to Baalbek, to the Beqaa Valley. And there they set up...Hezbollah." — Aaron Bregman [52:16]

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8. The 2000 Israeli Withdrawal & 2006 Lebanon War

[54:25–56:52]

• Israel withdrew from Lebanon in 2000, hoping to end Hezbollah attacks.
• In 2006, after Hezbollah attacked an Israeli patrol, Israel launched a massive retaliation, leading to the destructive 2006 war.
• The "Dahya Doctrine" emerged: using overwhelming force on densely populated areas, yet Hezbollah was neither destroyed nor disarmed.

Quote:
"They turned this neighborhood, which was Hezbollah's stronghold, into... rubble in order to deter Hezbollah. But it didn't. And Hezbollah continued to operate." — Aaron Bregman [56:27]

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9. Lebanon's Enduring Instability

[57:45–59:54]

• Lebanon's democracy is fragile, with power still divided along sectarian lines and a weak government unable to disarm groups like Hezbollah or address foundational resentments.
• Continued interference from Israel, Iran, and Syria compounds the chaos.

Quote:
"The internal, the domestic, combines with the external to cause the big problems of Lebanon... The central control of Lebanon is not strong enough because it is such a divided society... And in such a weak central control, you have groups like Hezbollah armed with their own policies." — Aaron Bregman [58:46]

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10. Contemporary Parallels: Ethnic Cleansing & Strategic Futility

[60:10–63:55]

• Recent Israeli military actions echo old patterns: mass displacement, destruction, attempts to create buffer zones.
• Bregman denounces current policies as 'ethnic cleansing' of southern Lebanon, where return is prevented by infrastructure destruction.

Quote:
"The more disturbing thing that [is] happening there in South Lebanon is the ethnic cleansing... In the past, the Israelis always used the population...to put pressure on the Lebanese government...The difference between now and then is that the Israelis are not allowing them to come back." — Aaron Bregman [60:10]

• Israel cannot militarily "defeat" Hezbollah without targeting Iran, its backer—an outcome deemed unlikely.

Quote:
"If the Israelis really want to defeat Hezbollah, they have to defeat Iran...there is no way to defeat Hezbollah. And because the Israelis are now moving into Lebanon, Hezbollah have the excuse not to disarm." — Aaron Bregman [62:55]

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• “Whenever the Israelis go there, it ends in tears.” — Aaron Bregman [17:26]
• “Hezbollah was there even before the Israelis invaded… The big push...was the Israeli invasion.” — Aaron Bregman [52:16]
• "Strategic disasters… Pyrrhic victories." — Martin Di Caro and Aaron Bregman [51:29–51:34]
• "Nobody cares now about [the ethnic cleansing of South Lebanon] because all of us are looking at Iran." — Aaron Bregman [61:18]
• "It's going to continue for a while, Martin… When we meet again, we will probably still discuss the same story of Hezbollah, Israel fighting against each other, invading, retreating." — Aaron Bregman [64:36]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• [19:34]: Early Zionist ambitions about the Litani River
• [25:56]: Cyclical nature of Lebanese instability; PLO to Hezbollah
• [31:53]: Israeli army's readiness to invade Lebanon in 1982
• [37:52]: Personal anecdotes of Gemayel’s election and celebration
• [47:45]: PLO evacuation and the onset of the Sabra and Shatila massacre
• [52:16]: Birth and rise of Hezbollah
• [54:25]: Israel’s 2000 withdrawal and the 2006 war
• [58:46]: Causes of Lebanon's persistent weakness
• [60:10]: Current Israeli tactics: Displacement and ethnic cleansing
• [62:55]: The impossibility of defeating Hezbollah without confronting Iran

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Overall Tone and Language

The episode balances personal experience (Bregman’s military service and life trajectory) with sober, critical analysis. Both speakers maintain a respectful, historically grounded tone, combining narrative, witness, and critique of policymakers—Israeli, Lebanese, American, and others.

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Conclusion

Di Caro and Bregman conclude that Israel’s recurring attempts to control Lebanon—militarily, politically, or demographically—have repeatedly failed, often with unintended, disastrous consequences like the birth of Hezbollah. As history tragically repeats itself, current events—displacement, airstrikes, and the elusive defeat of Hezbollah—are seen not as anomalies but as continuations of a deep, unresolved regional crisis, underscoring the futility of seeking security through force or externally imposed regime change.

The take-home: Lebanon’s agony is simultaneously local, regional, and international; its solution remains elusive, and as Bregman remarks—the story is not over, and another chapter will be written yet.

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Transcript

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[Martin DeCaro]

March 27, 2026 regime change Israel and Lebanon 1982 Israeli Armed Forces have completed

[US Government Official / Secretary Shultz]

preparations for a military attack into Lebanon

[News Reporter / Narrator]

detach Syrian support from the plo.

[Lebanese Official / UN Security Council Representative]

What is at stake in the invasion of Lebanon is the future of Lebanon itself.

[Aaron Bregman]

But this army is beyond government control.

[US Government Official / Secretary Shultz]

It is an illegal militia.

[Aaron Bregman]

This council has treated with callousness and indifference all these years. All our complaints with regard to PLO barbarism originating from Lebanon against Israel's civilians.

[US Government Official / Secretary Shultz]

The legitimate security concerns of neighboring states, including particularly the safety of Israel's northern population, must be provided for. But this is not a difficult task if the political will is there.

[Lebanese Interviewee / Historian]

And all the problems we left without any solution since 1943 until now leaded us to where we are.

[Martin DeCaro]

Israel is at war in Lebanon again, displacing a million Lebanese from their homes in the southern part of the country in the latest attempt to disarm Hezbollah. But this new war is part of a long pattern stretching back decades where Israel repeatedly tried and failed to create a Lebanon it could control. Once that meant picking the country's president. That's next as we report history as it happens. I'm Martin DeCaro.

[Aaron Bregman]

A massive boom in the floor just above the flat where he was giving a speech in Ashrafiya, which is a neighborhood in Beirut, and he was assassinated. Nothing was left of him. He was identified by the wedding ring. His finger was found with a wedding ring and his advisor Akhredoni said, oh, this is the finger of Bashir Jamail.

[Martin DeCaro]

Lebanon was important to the early Zionists because of the Latani River. Today, the state of Israel has destroyed the bridges across the litany as its military goes to war again, trying to solve its security problems on the other side of the blue line. As Lubna El Amin writes in the New York Review of books, since Monday, March 2, Israel's Armed Forces have launched daily airstrikes on Lebanon, begun after Hezbollah fired a small volley of rockets into Israel in response to the killing of Ali Khamenei, causing no casualties. The Israeli strikes have so far killed more than 900 people and displaced more than a million out of a population of less than 6 million. Evacuation orders have been issued for almost the whole of the southern suburbs of Beirut. She says the evacuation order for the country's south keeps expanding its northern boundary moving up within 10 days from the Latani river to the Zahrani river, around 25 miles from the Israeli border. Israel significantly expanded its ground invasion of the south, raising the threat of a long term occupation. The strikes have also, without prior warning, targeted areas far from the evacuation zones, including the campus of the public Lebanese University in Beirut where she says Israel assassinated two science professors, a seafront area where refugees were sleeping, killing eight, and buildings in the mountains overlooking Beirut where the victims included a children's book author and a photographer along with his toddler. Something familiarly awful is happening here. The sound of jets above and the near constant noise of bombardment. Just another reason why towns like here

[Aaron Bregman]

in Nabatiya and the south of Lebanon in general, emptying out.

[Martin DeCaro]

So many people had to flee, she says, that journeys that normally take two or three hours took 20 or more. The hundreds of thousands who have now left their homes have gone north, sheltering with relatives in schools, on the pavements, in public squares and in cars. In the recent rains, the makeshift tents have flooded. The displaced have been trying to guess from the location of the ceaseless strikes whether their home still stands. Most will not know before they return, but they do not know when that'll be. The evacuation orders are open ended and I will share a link to that essay in the show. Notes to this episode. Today's enemy is Hezbollah, the Shia militia that was spawned by Israel's invasion of Lebanon back in 1982.

[Lebanese Official / UN Security Council Representative]

What is at stake now in the invasion of Lebanon is the future of Lebanon itself, its territorial integrity, its independence and its sovereignty. This must be preserved. And it is the responsibility of the Council, under the Charter, to prevent a member state from being literally murdered. We bring this urgent appeal to the Security Council in the most urgent terms.

[Martin DeCaro]

At that time, the enemy was the plo. In addition to the military goal of routing the PLO bases in southern Lebanon, the Israelis sought a political solution if they could somehow install a friendly government in Beirut led by someone who also opposed the PLO presence in the shattered country. His name was Bashir Djemail, a Maronite Christian and the leader of the brutal Falange militia. Here is Djemail being interviewed in a documentary that aired on British television in 1982, discussing the problem of foreign interference in his country's affairs.

[Lebanese Interviewee / Historian]

We thought that by avoiding the problems, we will solve them. We never understood Christians and Muslims, that all the problems we were trying today to avoid were kept aside. But they were growing. And a day came where we were not able anymore to withhold all these problems. The Syrians and the Palestinians have helped us to blow up everything and all the problems we left without any solution since 1943 until now leaded us to where we are.

[Martin DeCaro]

In his epic account of the civil war, Pity the Nation, the late journalist Robert Fisk wrote of the Israeli Jamail marriage. The Israelis followed one consistent practice. They never called the Phalange by its real name. They called it the Lebanese Forces, a coalition that had no real meaning now that the Falangist alliance with Israel had been consecrated around West Beirut. If the Israelis had called their allies Falangists, of course, it would have raised awkward questions. Thoughts would have traveled not forward into the future of the prosperous friendship of Jew and Christian Maronite, but backwards to 1936 to those young men in their dark shirts who had paraded for their youth leader at Ain El Rumaneh. Any repeated mention of the Phalange would have evoked memories of Franco, of fascism, and of Nazism. Fisk goes on to say, on August 23, 1982, the Maronites celebrated the fruit of their alliance with Israel, the election of Bashir Gemail as president of Lebanon. There is no surprise, he writes, by now his elevation was assured. He was Israel's man again. Robert Fisk in Pity the Nation. The Israeli Jamail marriage did not last. A Syrian agent blew up Jamail on September 14, 1982, just two weeks after the PLO had completed its evacuation and after President Reagan had said the US Marines would come home. Jamail's assassination triggered one of the ugliest episodes in the history of the modern Middle east the massacres at the Sabra and Shatila refugee camps.

[News Anchor / Reporter]

Good evening. Gunmen have marauded through two Palestinian refugee camps in West Beirut, executing unarmed men,

[US Government Official / Secretary Shultz]

women and children in a bloody massacre

[News Anchor / Reporter]

which has heightened tensions between the US And Israel.

[US Government Official / Secretary Shultz]

My fellow Americans, the scenes that the whole world witnessed this past weekend were among the most heartrending in the long nightmare of Lebanon's agony. Millions of us have seen pictures of the Palestinian victims of this tragedy. There's little that words can add, but there are actions we can and must take to bring that nightmare to an end.

[Martin DeCaro]

After this nightmare abated, Israel wound up staying in Lebanon for 18 years, withdrawing finally from occupied southern Lebanon in 2000. Today, more than a quarter century later, its armies are once more trying to create a Lebanon it can control. Aaron Bregman was an IDF officer in 1982. Today he's a historian at King's College London and the author of Israel's War Is a history since 1947, which he is updating for a fifth edition. Tap subscribe now in the show Notes to skip ads, enjoy early access and all of our bonus content or go to history as it happens.com so when

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[Martin DeCaro]

Welcome back my friend.

[Aaron Bregman]

Hello Martin. Good to see you again.

[Martin DeCaro]

You were in Israel when the war broke out. Briefly tell us what that was like.

[Aaron Bregman]

Yes, well, I was there to investigate, research a new chapter for my book, Israel's Wars. It was supposed to be a chapter on the Gaza war, and I found myself in the shelter in a new war and it was quite tough, I must say, because we spent a lot of time in the shelters in Israel. At least three times a night we had to get out of bed and rush to the shelter, which was very unpleasant.

[Martin DeCaro]

Did you ever feel like your life was in danger?

[Aaron Bregman]

Only once. Only once. Because as long as these were missiles coming from Iran, we had about nine minutes to reach the shelter. So you have nine minutes. They give you a warning. You have nine minutes and then you go down when the siren is in the air. But when one missile came from Hezbollah, and because the distance is so short, you don't have time to rush to the shelter. You get the warning, you start running and then you see you can hear the big boom in the air. So it was quite an unpleasant experience. I must, because by now I have forgotten my days, my Lebanon days, you see.

[Martin DeCaro]

So despite what I might think, Aaron Bregman, not everyone listens to every one of my episodes. And besides, I have new listeners now, who may not be aware that we spoke a couple of years ago about Israel and Lebanon and that you were a soldier in the IDF in the 1982 invasion. Tell us about your involvement in that war and how it changed you as a. As a human being.

[Aaron Bregman]

Well, I was an artillery officer in the. In 1982. And when it started in June, June the sixth, I was somewhere near Tel Aviv. I was not in my unit any longer, but it sounds crazy now, but I just did not want to miss the war. And therefore I jumped into a car with a friend of mine and we crossed into Lebanon. And in the morning we reached central Lebanon in a place near Bahamdun where there was an artillery unit. And I stayed with them for a while and then I got a new job in Beirut as an artillery officer. So I spent the rest of the time in Beirut. We were in a building together with Faranche, with Bashir Jamal's people. And I'm sure that we will mention it later, but the war was quite a shocking experience for me because like the war with Iran now, it was a war of choice. It was not a war of necessity. And therefore after a while, you or I started asking questions about the Lebanon war. After the war I just decided to leave the military and I went to uni and the rest is history.

[Martin DeCaro]

You did not want to be part of the Israeli occupation forces in the Palestinian territories, right?

[Aaron Bregman]

Oh, that's very true. This came later in 1987, when the first Palestinian uprising, the so called Intifada, is started. I refuse to serve in the occupied territories. And because Israel is such a small community, only used to be a small community and everyone knew about everything. I prefer to leave Israel. And that's the reason why I'm in the United Kingdom now for many years now, because it felt that it would be better for me to leave Israel than to stay there. At the time. This was in 1987. Back in 1987, yeah.

[Martin DeCaro]

And the 1982 war lasted three months, although you could say it never really ended. It is part of a longer pattern that we're going to discuss here. You mentioned the current war of choice in Iran. Israel is also fighting another war or another front in this war in Lebanon as we speak, where 1 million people Lebanese have been displaced from their homes in the southern part of the country adjacent to Israel. And the pattern is Israel attempting to shape the political environment, the security environment in Lebanon over the decades through use of military force and it failing over and over again. I mean, would you agree with that? Given what's happening today?

[Aaron Bregman]

Yes, Lebanon is a complex and complicated place. And whenever you go there, or whenever the Israelis go there, it starts. Well, it ends in tears. You mentioned the First Lebanon War. You know, Martin, it was supposed to last between 48 and 72 hours. It lasted 18 years. It continues now, of course, in another shape.

[Martin DeCaro]

That's right. Israel got. Well, I shouldn't say Israel got stuck. It decided to occupy Lebanon for all those years up to 1990 or no,

[Aaron Bregman]

2000, up to 24th of May 2000. So when Israel went to Lebanon on the 6th of June 1982, some of the ministers who approved the war believed that it will last between 48 and 72 hours.

[News Anchor / Reporter]

Long columns of Israeli tanks and armored personnel carriers loaded with infantry rolled over the border into southern Lebanon this morning. The Israeli military spokesman said that they would seek out and destroy all the Palestinian terrorist concentrations and artillery positions that have sent a rain of rockets and shells into Israeli border communities in the past few days.

[Aaron Bregman]

It took a long, long time for the Israelis to get out. And guess what? Now they are going back into exactly the same area.

[Martin DeCaro]

Not for regime change. The idea in 82 was regime change, although Israel is trying to affect some kind of regime change or collapse in Iran. All right, so before we get to 1982, let's establish a little context, really, and go back to 1948. You can find Israeli military figures believing Israel should control southern Lebanon, even make that part of the world, part of Israel, all the way up to the Latani River. What is the historical context there? Why that part of Lebanon? Why should it have been part of Israel in the eyes of people like David Ben Gurion?

[Aaron Bregman]

Well, this is really a good start, I think, for the discussion, because people don't realize that even before the establishment of the State of Israel on Friday 14 May 1948, the early Zionists, those who wanted to establish a Hebrew, not a Jewish, a Hebrew state in Palestine, they would pressure on the French and on the British that the northern border of Israel will be the Litany River. So it is not only Ben Gurion in 1947, 48, but we are talking about early Zionists. And the main thing for the early Zionists and for Ben Gurion too, was water. Because if you see the Litany river and I saw the Litany river and I swam in the Litany River, I had a shower and not a shower, but I jumped into the Litany river and you see how fresh the water is, healthy water. And what the Jews, the early Zionists and later Ben Gurion wanted to have was basically to divert some of the water of the Litany river to the east to connect it to the Hasbani river to the east. You look at the map later, Martin. And then from the Hasbani river to take it down to the Jordan River. So basically Litany, Tasbani, Jordan river and down to the Negev to the desert. And in 1948, moving forward in Operation Hiram, Israeli forces in fact did reach the Litany River. If you look at the map, there is a L shape there, a bend in the river, in the Litany River. The Israeli forces reached this point, but in 1949 they retreated, treated from there. And then the Israeli dream, this is my last point about it. The Israeli dream of having the river as part of Israel came to an end in 1955. In 1955, the American administration sent someone by the name of Eric Johnston and he dealt with water in the Middle east, how to allocate water between Lebanon, Jordan, Israel, Syria. And this was basically the end of the Israeli dream to have access to the water of the Litany River. And if I may, Martin, just one more comment. Today I heard one of the Israeli ministers talking about the Litany river and it reminds me the dream of the Israelis until 1955 of having access to the water of the.

[Martin DeCaro]

And just to cite a academic paper I found here by Jalal Helwani of Lebanese University, he goes back to, as you say, early 20th century Israeli interest in the waters of Lebanon go back at least as far as the Paris Peace Conference 1919, when Chaim Weitzman, head of the World Zionist Organization, wrote to the British Prime Minister David Lloyd George, that Lebanon was well watered and that the litany was valueless to the territory north of the proposed frontiers. They can be used beneficially in the country much further south. He concluded the litany was essential to the future of the Jewish national Home. But this suggestion was rejected by the League of Nations and the litany was confirmed as part of Lebanon. Who knows, maybe if a different decision had been made 100 years ago, we wouldn't be dealing with some of the problems today. Or maybe not. The security picture begins to develop in the 1960s and that is because the PLO guerrillas start to move into Lebanon. And after 1970, especially Aaron, when the PLO is thrown out of Jordan during Black September, southern Lebanon now becomes the PLO's new base. Why don't you pick it up from there? And how that sets the stage, if you will, for what happens in 1982?

[Aaron Bregman]

Basically, the PLO after the 1967 war. The 196760 was based in Jordan. In September 1970, they tried to challenge the King of Jordan and then he just threw them out. It was these Palestinians after the Arab route in the Six Day War, these Fedayeen who picked up the fallen Arab banner. They vowed vengeance. While the armies of Egypt, Syria, Jordan

[News Anchor / Reporter]

reeled from their humiliation by the Israelis,

[Aaron Bregman]

the Palestinians began to train again, became the vanguard of a slowly reawakened Arab pride. Folk heroes in the Arab world. And they moved to Lebanon. They deployed. They. I mean, the plo, they deployed in southern Lebanon along the border with Israel. The commanders, the leaders, including Arafat and others, based themselves in Beirut and part of Lebanon came under the full control. In other words, for example, in BEIRUT in the 1970s, you needed to cross PLO roadblocks because they were in full control of some of the neighborhoods.

[Martin DeCaro]

There's a state, right?

[Aaron Bregman]

Exactly. A state within a state, both in the south, along the border with Israel, in the area of Nabtiye, which is a place in Lebanon, and also in Beirut. So the PLO is basically up in Beirut and in the south. And some sections of Lebanon are under the full control they have, if you want, their own capital, in the Lebanese capital.

[Martin DeCaro]

And there is something called the Cairo Agreement of 1969 in which the Lebanese government turned over the supervision of the Palestinian refugee camps to the PLO in exchange for the PLO pledging to obtain government consent for any armed incursions it might make into Israel. But that did not happen.

[Aaron Bregman]

It did not happen. But it is interesting if we look at it from another perspective, because in Lebanon then and now, you've always had armed groups which worked sometimes in contradiction to the interests of the state. At the time, it was the PLO carrying guns and doing things against Israel and then Israel retaliating against the government of Lebanon. And now while we are talking, you have Hezbollah carrying guns, challenging Israel and Israel is bombing Lebanon. Nothing has changed, Martin. Nothing has changed in the last 50, 60, 70 years.

[Martin DeCaro]

Well, the names change, right? But the underlying issues. The underlying issues in this case, Israel's security. The political crisis in Lebanon, which you could say is a failed state to this day, does not have full control over its national territory.

[Aaron Bregman]

This is the tragedy of Lebanon. Because I don't know if you've been there, Martin.

[Martin DeCaro]

I haven't, no.

[Aaron Bregman]

I was there in 1978 during the litany campaign and then later in the Lebanon war. It's a beautiful country with beautiful people, but it is the Battleground for other armies and people and groups. Syrians, Israelis, plo, Palestinians, everyone is fighting in this land with the Lebanese government having very little control.

[Martin DeCaro]

From 1970 onward, the cycle of Palestinian raids into Israel and Israeli retaliation in force repeated itself countless times. So Iran, at this time, the PLO people might be asking, why were Palestinian guerrillas in Lebanon repeatedly attacking into Israel? At this stage, the PLO is still trying to defeat Israel, right? Reclaim the entire territory?

[Aaron Bregman]

That's correct. What the PLO is doing after the 1967 war is trying to liberate Palestine. It sounds crazy, I know, but until 1967, they trusted Arab armies to do the job for them. 1967 didn't happen. They take matters into their own hands and they decided to liberate Palestine. They do it from Jordan first until they are kicked out from there in Black September. Then they do it from Lebanon. And they do it in line with a charter which was issued in July 1968, which called for armed struggle, armed struggle to liberate Palestine. The problem is that they are operating from countries from Jordan first and from Lebanon then. And the Israelis, in their response, respond not only against the PLO, but also against the governments of Jordan and Lebanon.

[Martin DeCaro]

And a lot of the shelling displaced very poor Shia farmers and others from southern Lebanon. And they moved to slums outside Beirut. And that is where Hezbollah would begin to recruit its first members. We'll get to that in a little bit. Aaron, how did this conflict, the PLO guerrillas and the Israeli army, how did that contribute to the start of the civil war in Lebanon which broke out in 1975?

[Aaron Bregman]

You see, there were tensions already there at the time between the different groups in Lebanon. What complicated the matter was outside forces. Israel on the one hand, Syria on the other hand, became involved in the internal problems of of Lebanon. The Israelis worked with the Maonites. The Maonites are the largest Christian group in Lebanon. The Maonites, one of their representatives met with a Mossad agent. I'm talking about 1975. You mentioned 1975. They met on the stairs of the Madeleine Church in Paris. And the Maonites asked the Israelis to help them. And the Israelis thought, ah, the Mahonites are going to fight against the PLO in Lebanon. Why shouldn't we help them? And this was the beginning of the involvement of Israel in this civil war.

[Martin DeCaro]

Yeah, strange bedfellows, because when Al Assad, the father, the dictator of Syria, decides to intervene in the civil war and occupy part of Lebanon in 1976, is doing so on behalf of the Maronites in the civil war against the interests of the plo. So that was strange. Before we go any further, I just want to encourage all of our listeners. We're not going to cover all the complexities of Lebanon's sectarian divisions and the feelings of resentment and disenfranchisement on a part of the Shia Muslims in Lebanon who felt solidarity with the PLO against the Christian sects and the Christian militias who had a majority based on, you know, a very old division of power in the Lebanese government based on population. The Muslims by this point were a majority, but the Christians still had the majority in the Lebanese government. I'm just going to encourage everyone to read an encyclopedia article, something brief, that'll give you the broad contours of the Lebanese civil war. We're going to touch on it continually here. But it is an enormous subject and we would spend all day in 1975 and we'd never move on. So by the early 1980s, Aaron, Israel's just simply had enough of this situation, right? And they're looking for an opportunity to solve. There's an echo today in the headlines. Solve the problem of security in Lebanon.

[Lebanese Interviewee / Historian]

Right.

[Aaron Bregman]

You know, Martin, in the early 1980s, I was an officer in the Israeli army. We were sitting on our tanks, in my case, on my cannon, and we were just waiting for the opportunity to move in. We just waited for something to happen that will send us into Lebanon because we were ready. We knew that it was coming. We just needed an excuse to get in. And the excuse came from London. It came from London. On 3 June 1982, Palestinians belonging to the Abu Nidal group jumped on the Israeli ambassador when he left the Dorchester Hotel in Park Lane in London and tried to kill him. And the Israeli Prime Minister of the time begins said, well, an attack on an ambassador equivalent to an attack on the state, and we are going into Lebanon. This was the trigger that sent us into Lebanon in 1982.

[Martin DeCaro]

And on June 6, 1982, PLO Mortar and Rocket attacks against settlements in the Galilee sector of northern Israel also provided a pretext. You know, I neglected to mention, aharon, that in 1978 Israel briefly invaded Lebanon. And William Cleveland, in his excellent reference book, A History of the Modern Middle east, he says the Israelis took two lessons away from that very brief invasion which came to an end when the United nations and the United States, more importantly, pressured Israel to withdraw. The first lesson was the presence of the Palestinian guerrillas could not be eliminated by military action that confined itself to southern Lebanon. Alone, meaning below the Litany River. And second, the influence of the Palestinians in Lebanese affairs could not be eradicated without resolving the broader issue of Lebanon's political instability.

[Aaron Bregman]

That's very true, Martin. And in fact, I was there. This was my first visit to Lebanon. The so called Litany campaign. We invaded south Lebanon, moved up to the Litany river and stopped. And it is very interesting what you've just mentioned, because we met very little resistance. The PLO saw us coming and they just moved north of the Litany River. But this Litany campaign was the first time that I was there inside Lebanon, the first time that I tried eating cherries because our battalion was deployed. We were artillery inside cherry trees, orchard or whatever it was. It was March or April 1978. And one more, more historical point, Martin. The Litany campaign was relatively short. And the ministers who would approve going into Lebanon in 1982 had in mind the Litany campaign. And they thought, oh, our operation in Lebanon 1982 will be short because it's going to be just like the Litany Campaign. They got it wrong, of course, and

[Martin DeCaro]

the goal was regime change. So let's investigate then why the Israeli cabinet in 1982, a fellow by the name of Ariel Sharon was there. Menachem Begin was the prime minister. Why they believe they were able to accomplish something like this. So they wanted to route the PLO in southern Lebanon, drive them out of the country or defeat them, drive all the way to Beirut, lay siege to the capital city, where of course there'd be terrible harm to civilians, and install a Maronite Christian. You mentioned the Maronites before. They were the largest Christian or the most powerful Christian sect. They had their own militias. Pretty much every political body in Lebanon had militias during this period. There weren't conventional armies fighting on battlefields in the civil war. It was a lot of militias. Bashir Djemael was the younger son of Pierre Gemael, who was the founder and titular leader of the Falangists. They had a vicious reputation as a Christian militia. How did Israel become interested in Bashir Gemael?

[Aaron Bregman]

So I think that I touched upon it before, but I'll explain again. In 1975, his people, one of his people, Joseph something, I can't remember. I interviewed him many years after that. He met with a Mossad agent in Paris and he asked for the Israelis. In the Madeleine Church, on the stairs, they met and he asked for the Israelis to help. And the government of Israel at the time was led by Rabin. It was not a liquid government, it was a Labor government. Rabin was the prime minister and Peres was one of his ministers. I can't remember. And the Israelis decided to start helping them and they started to provide them with weapons and to train them. And this was the beginning of the relationship. And then came 1982. Fast forward to 1982. And yes, you are right. What the Israelis wanted to do in this war, or whatever Sharon wanted to do in this war was many things. To defeat the Syrians, to defeat the plo. But the most interesting thing, Martin, was the aim of crowning Bashar Jumael, a Maonite leader, as the president. Lebanon. You crown him and he will reward you by signing a peace treaty with you. And then Lebanon will be the second country to be in peace with Israel. That was the most important part of the plan to crown a new president in Lebanon. And it partly worked.

[Martin DeCaro]

What was in it for Jamael other than obviously becoming president?

[Aaron Bregman]

But let me describe it through my personal eyes. You see, in Beirut, we stayed in a school near the presidential palace in Beirut. We, the Israelis were in the first floor and Bashir Jemael was in the ground floor. I could see him coming and going. I could see him from the window. Bashir Jemael, because his people were in the first floor. He needed Martin, 2/3 of the Lebanese parliament to vote for him to become a president. And the elections took place, I think, on the 22nd of August 1982. He promised us, he promised us the officers of the first floor. If I'm elected, I'll take you to Casino Duliban in junior and we will celebrate together. And we, not me personally, but I was there. I was the forrest grump of the Lebanon War. I was witnessing it from the side. He needed 2/3 of the parliament and the Israelis blocked those who opposed him and helicopter, those who supported him, helicopter to Beirut. And he was elected president of Lebanon. And guess what? He took us to Casino Duliban. We drove there at night to Junia, and there was a big restaurant there. Bashir Cemael came and gave a speech in French. He was French educated. He talked to us. He said, thank you for helping me to be elected. So he was elected on the 22nd, I think, and he was supposed to walk into the parliament four weeks later. But two weeks later he was assassinated.

[News Anchor / Reporter]

Meanwhile, the number of dead and injured in yesterday's explosion which killed president elect Bashir Jamal, has reportedly reached at least 60. No one yet has claimed responsibility for the bombing. Lebanon has begun seven days of mourning for Jamail. Shops were closed, usually crowded streets were nearly empty. He was buried in his hometown Mount's village of Bekfaya this afternoon. Among those attending was US Presidential Envoy Morris Draper, who has returned to the Middle east to continue.

[Aaron Bregman]

Someone put a massive bomb in the floor just above the flat where he was giving a speech in Ashrafiya, which is a neighborhood in Beirut, and he was assassinated. Nothing was left of him. He was identified by the wedding ring. His finger was found with a wedding ring and his advisor was Akradoni Said. Oh, this is the finger of Bashir Jamail or this is the wedding ring of Bashir Jamal. He was assassinated.

[Martin DeCaro]

The conversation continues. Tap subscribe now in the show Notes to Skip ads. Enjoy early access and all of our bonus content.

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[Martin DeCaro]

I want to stay on what the Israeli objectives were here too. By achieving all these goals in Lebanon, it would isolate the Palestinians on the west bank leading to possible annexation. There's another echo in the headlines today. The west bank is being annexed de facto if not de jure Right now, as Israel wages another war against Hezbollah and Lebanon. But that was a goal even then, a Begin and the settler movement, you see the origins of it in the 80s.

[Aaron Bregman]

Another goal of the Lebanon War, of course, was to attack the PLO to push them out of Lebanon into Jordan. In fact, in the end they went to Tunisia. Never mind now, but the idea, the original idea of the Begin government was to push them into Jordan and Jordan would become Palestine. It is very simple. The vast majority of the people in Jordan at the time, 70, 71% were Palestinians. So the people were Palestinians. And it will also solve the problem of the capital because the Palestinians will not ask to have Jerusalem, because Amman is already the capital of Jordan.

[Martin DeCaro]

But the Israeli war cabinet misled the world on this, right? They didn't announce ahead of time, we're going in to install Jamail. Right. Going all the way to Beirut took the world by surprise. Is that right?

[Aaron Bregman]

The person who misled everyone was Ere Sharon, probably with Begin, the Prime Minister. They probably work together. There is a debate how much Begin actually knew. The ministers themselves who approved the 1982 war knew nothing or very little, or understood very little about what's happening. They thought it's going to be as short as the Litany campaign. But Sharon, and probably Begin with him, misled the world. Yes, because the objectives were big. To crown a new president, to get rid of the PLO and to attack the Syrians. There were Syrian forces in Lebanon, so there was a big plan there. It was called Oronim Gadol. There was Oranim Patan, small pines up to the Litany river and Oronim Gadol, big pines up to Beirut. This was big pine.

[Martin DeCaro]

Thank you for the Hebrew lesson here too.

[Aaron Bregman]

Yeah.

[Martin DeCaro]

So Menachem Begin arrived in Washington during the war in the summer of 82. And I'm going to play you what he said when he was standing with Ronald Reagan and was asked a couple of questions by reporters about what the heck was going on in Lebanon.

[Menachem Begin]

I have read in some newspapers in this great country that Israel invaded Lebanon. This is a misnomer. Israel did not invade any country. You do invade a land when you want to conquer it or to annex it, or at least to conquer part of it. We don't covet even one inch of Lebanese territory. And willingly we will withdraw our troops, all of our troops, and bring them back home as soon as possible.

[Martin DeCaro]

So what do you think?

[Aaron Bregman]

Of what? It's a nice one, especially if we look at it in hindsight and we can establish that what he said was nonsense because Israel went in, went all the way up to Beirut and stayed there for 18 years. For 18 years.

[Martin DeCaro]

But for a moment. You mentioned this before. It looked like Israel had achieved its aims and would be able to get out of there. As international pressure and internal condemnation within Israel intensified and many people are familiar with this story, in August, there was an agreement finally signed. The Reagan administration sent its best diplomat, Phil Habib, to the region Aug. 18. There'd be a multinational force headed by France and the United States to supervise the evacuation of the plo. So the plo, finally, Arafat, finally agrees to leave.

[US Ambassador Phil Habib]

Ambassador Habib has informed me that a plan to resolve the West Beirut crisis has been agreed upon by all the parties involved. As part of this plan, the government of Lebanon has requested and I have approved the deployment of United States forces to Beirut as part of a multinational force. The negotiations to develop this plan have been extremely complex and have been conducted in the most arduous circumstances. At times it was difficult to imagine how agreement could be reached. And yet it has been reached. The statesmanship and the courage of President Sarkis and his colleagues in the Lebanese government deserve special recognition, as does the magnificent work of Ambassador.

[Martin DeCaro]

After the siege, which had done so much damage to the suburbs there and the PLO strongholds. By September 1st, the PLO evacuation is complete.

[News Reporter / Narrator]

Nevertheless, the mood is one of cautious optimism. They believe this evacuation is going to work and the vast majority of them are ready to go. But there's no talk of surrender here, only of moving their army on to other countries to build new bases for them. The agreement will allow them to take their personal weapons with them, rifles, pistols and ammunition. But it is only when these last evacuees pull out in a couple of weeks that the heavy weapons will be handed over to the Lebanese.

[Martin DeCaro]

US forces withdraw. People have to remember that before the Marines were sent back where they were attacked and killed in the barracks bombing in 1983, they had been withdrawn from Lebanon. But then, in late August, Bashir Jamail, elected as or chosen or installed as Lebanon's president. Two weeks later, he is assassinated.

[News Anchor / Reporter]

Meanwhile, the number of dead and injured in yesterday's explosion which killed President Elect Bashir Jamail, has reportedly reached at least 60. No one yet has claimed responsibility for the bombing. Lebanon has begun seven days of mourning for Jamail. Shops were closed, usually crowded streets were nearly empty.

[Martin DeCaro]

And then, an issue we discussed on a separate podcast episode a year or so ago. The Falangists, seeking revenge, go to the refugee camps of Sabra and Shatila, and they massacre a couple thousand Palestinian men, women and children who are defenseless.

[News Anchor / Reporter]

Beirut was a city of firing squads last night of executions carried out against Palestinian civilians in their refugee camps of Sabra and Shatila.

[News Reporter / Narrator]

Today, in the camps of Sabra and Shatiya, a large plot of unmarked graves bears witness to those who died in the massacre.

[Aaron Bregman]

Secretary Schultz helped President Reagan draft a statement that virtually blames Israel.

[US Government Official / Secretary Shultz]

Israel must have learned that there is no way it can impose its own solutions on hatreds as deep and bitter as those that produce this tragedy. If it seeks to do so, it will only sink more deeply into the quagmire that looms before it.

[Martin DeCaro]

They had been left unprotected when the PLO evacuated. It was the Israeli military that facilitated that massacre, wasn't it?

[Aaron Bregman]

Yeah, yeah. It was impossible for the phalange for Bashir Jabal's people to do what they've done without Israeli permission. They were sent in by the Israeli Chief of Staff, Raphael Eitan, not to do a massacre, but to kill those Palestinians, armed Palestinians the Israelis believed was killed there. I interviewed Ere Sharon on this matter. Erel Sharon told me that he believed that in Sabra and shatila there were 2,000 Palestinians. I remember the word he used with me in Hebrew. He said, hamushim. He said, there are 2000 Hamushim armed Palestinians who were left there and after the evacuation of the plo. And therefore this was his justification for sending in or allowing the Falange to go in. And it was a big massacre. It was a big massacre. Absolutely. By the way, Martin, by the way, Ere Sheron insisted in the interviews. I interviewed him five times. He insisted that the war in Lebanon was a success. This is a resharon, not me saying, I think that it was a terrible defeat. But he insisted that it was a success. The PLO was defeated, that the Syrians were defeated. I think that he was talking, like Netanyahu now, about tactical achievements. Tactical achievements.

[Martin DeCaro]

These are Pyrrhic victories. Yeah, Pyrrhic victories. Strategic disasters.

[Aaron Bregman]

Strategic disasters, yeah.

[Martin DeCaro]

Yeah. I mean, Lebanon's civil war continued until 1990. Israel wound up occupying southern Lebanon until 2000. And the origins of Hezbollah are part of this story. Speaking of unintended consequences. Unintended consequences that flow from every misbegotten war, you know, our own today. Some people in the United States are justifying the war against Iran because of Iran's past support for groups like Hezbollah. Well, Hezbollah originates in this period. How do you understand the group's origins as it relates to the Israeli invasion.

[Aaron Bregman]

Unintended consequence is just the right term to use here because Israel went into Lebanon to solve the problem of the plo and they gave birth to another problem, which is Hezbollah. Hezbollah was there even before the Israelis invaded. Small group, not too violent, but they were there underground. The big push to the setting up of the group or the Israeli invasion. And the moment the Israel is invaded, the Iranians sent instructors to East Lebanon, to Baalbek, to the Baka Valley. And there they set up there, they established Hezbollah. And in 1985. Just one more thing, Martin. In 1985, Hezbollah issued its charter, the open letter, where they said, this is what we are going to do. And this charter, if you read it in hindsight, this is exactly what they have been doing since 1982.

[Martin DeCaro]

Armed resistance against Israel. And Hezbollah has been able to survive some serious setbacks, including in the past couple of years. It's turned out to be stronger than maybe some people expected after 2023, 2024, and when Iran really didn't do much to help it. But before we get to what's happening today, in 2006, Israel and Lebanon, there was another war, actually. Israel and Hezbollah. Hezbollah is not quite a state within a state. You can even say it's part of the state. I mean, there are Hezbollah members of the Lebanese parliament. Many, if not most Lebanese wish Hezbollah would go away or just put down their weapons, Right? But that hasn't happened. Lebanon is still a very unstable country where the army, its official army, is not as strong as this militia. Where do you place the 2006 war in this chronology? How important was that? I mean, again, Israel won a Pyrrhic victory.

[Aaron Bregman]

I want, Martin, with your permission, to go back to 2000.

[Martin DeCaro]

Yeah, please do.

[Aaron Bregman]

May 2000, 24th of May 2000. That's the day the Israelis, after 18 years in Lebanon, withdrew. The prime minister was someone by the name of Ehud Barak, and he decided to get out of Lebanon. He said, they, Hezbollah are fighting us only because we are inside. If we get out, there'll be no reason for them to fight us. So let's get out. So the Israelis got out, withdrew to the border. It is called the blue line, the border between Israel and Lebanon. They withdrew to there. They put a fence there. A fence. The Israeli Prime Minister asked Kofi Annan, the Secretary General of the United nations, to approve that. The fence is in the right place. Kofi Annan sent his team of whatever they said, that's fine. This is a full Israeli withdrawal. They are not in Lebanon anymore. Six years later, Hezbollah challenged the Israelis. They crossed this fence, this border, attacked an Israeli patrol. The Israeli reaction was massive. Massive. The prime minister was someone by the name of Albert. He had no military experience whatsoever. Because by that time, Sharon, the prime minister, was very ill. The defense minister had no military experience whatsoever. The chief of staff was a pilot, knew very little about ground operation. They didn't even realize that their reaction, their massive reaction is going to lead to war. And this is the beginning of the 2006 war.

[Martin DeCaro]

This is where Israel's Dahiyeh Dahya doctrine comes from. To use disproportionate force in heavily populated urban areas.

[Aaron Bregman]

Yeah, yeah. And this idea probably came from the chief of staff, who was a pilot. He probably said to the prime minister, let's turn Dahya into rubble. And they turned this neighborhood, which was Hezbollah's stronghold, into. Into dust, into rubble in order to deter Hezbollah. But it didn't. He didn't. And Hezbollah continued to operate.

[Martin DeCaro]

Yeah, I said Israel won a Pyrrhic victory. That's probably not right. I mean, claimed victory. It's probably better to say it was a stalemate. And There was a UN resolution after this 2006 war, 1701, where Hezbollah was supposed to disarm, but that did not happen. Its political influence has increased in Lebanon. I want to share something with you, Iran, and have you comment on it, and then we'll begin to wrap up. Maha Yahya, the director of the Carnegie Endowments Middle east center, gave an interview to the New Yorker where she was asked about Lebanon's internal political problems. And prior to October 7, 2023, she said the last war between Israel and Lebanon was in 2006. The cessation of hostilities or ceasefire that was put in place at the end of that conflict was holding. There was very little interaction along the border. In 2022, an agreement was struck between Lebanon and Israel to finalize the delineation of our maritime borders. And as for the land borders, some of the disputed points had been resolved internally. In Lebanon, there was a power struggle between the various political parties. Hezbollah, she says, still had quite a bit of power. They were the central political power in many ways. And then you had the Lebanese government forces on the other side, who were basically the heads of various militias during the Lebanese civil war, who had simply moved from the street into government at the end of the hostilities. There had been growing resentment of that political class within Lebanon, especially after a series of protest movements in 2019 when the country seemed to be facing economic collapse and the protests were about how grossly the country was being mismanaged, but also that a majority of Lebanese people across all sectarian groups were fed up. So I'm sharing this with you because I am at a loss to understand how Lebanon will finally get out of this morass, this abyss it's been in for decades.

[Aaron Bregman]

You see, the internal, the domestic, combines with the external to cause the big problems of Lebanon. The central control of Lebanon is not strong enough because it is such a divided society. And in such a weak central control, you have groups like Hezbollah armed with their own policies. Hezbollah, for example, refuses to disarm. From their point of view, they say, we are on the front with Israel. Most of our people are in the south, and the central government in North Lebanon is not protecting them, and therefore we should keep our arms and not move north of the Litany river and protect them. So the domestic problem there, the lack of strong government which reflects Lebanese politics and society, combines with the external problems. And this is the heart of the problem there.

[Martin DeCaro]

Yeah, same as in the late 1970s, where people were so frustrated that the government seemingly was unable to do anything about the PLO incursions and then the Israeli incursions back into Lebanon. So today, Aaron, what is Israel trying to accomplish in Lebanon?

[Aaron Bregman]

While we are talking, Martin, while we are here sitting here, you know, talking in a very civilized way, the Israelis are preparing themselves to invade into South Lebanon. Up to the litany. The more disturbing thing that happening there in South Lebanon is the ethnic cleansing of South Lebanon. I want to explain this point because this is the main reason why I agreed to talk to you today. Martin, this is important. In the past, the Israelis always used the population of South Lebanon to put pressure on the Lebanese government. In other words, the Israelis will drop leaflets on South Lebanon saying to the people, go to Beirut, otherwise we will kill you. We will bomb you. We are invading, and the people of South Lebanon will leave and go. And this would put pressure on the Lebanese government to reign in Hezbollah. The Israelis are doing it again now, now, this moment. The difference between now and then is that the Israelis are not allowing them to come back. How do I know that? Because an hour ago, the Israelis bombed the last bridge over the Litany River. In other words, these south Lebanese people will not be able to come back to the south straight forward ethnic cleansing in South Lebanon. Nobody cares now about it because all of us are looking at Iran.

[Martin DeCaro]

To what end, though, is it to just permanently clean it out, destroy it a la Gaza so it can never be used as A base for Hezbollah operations again. I mean, is that even achievable? I guess I'm at a loss to see how this is going to end in a positive outcome for anyone.

[Aaron Bregman]

The Israelis are doing it in order to have a clean area where they could put their soldiers between the villages, the Israeli villages, and Hezbollah. Most of Hezbollah is north of the river. But it's easier to have the soldiers there without the population around them, because from the population, the guerrilla will come. Last time that the Israelis stayed in this buffer zone, 1985 to 2000, there was a lot of guerrilla attacks there, which was one of the reasons why the Israelis withdrew in the first place in 2000. Now there are no people there. Only Christians, only Maonites are allowed to stay.

[Martin DeCaro]

Is it possible to defeat Hezbollah?

[Aaron Bregman]

I think that it will be too complicated. If the Israelis really want to defeat Hezbollah, they have to defeat Iran, which they are not going to do because the money comes from Iran. The support comes from. Everything is coming from Iran. This is how Hezbollah, you know, can pay salaries, by food and. Because the Israelis and the Americans are unlikely to defeat Iran when this war comes to an end. Martin. And we can talk about it in another discussion. When this war against Iran comes to an end, the same regime will be there, and it is likely to support Hezbollah, even if they say we are not going to support Hezbollah. And therefore, there is no way to defeat Hezbollah. And because the Israelis are now moving into Lebanon, Hezbollah have the excuse not to disarm.

[Martin DeCaro]

You know, at one point, probably no one thought the PLO and the Israeli government would ever shake hands and try to reach a lasting peace agreement. Yet they did in 1993, which seems like ancient history. We know it didn't last. Right. But it seems hard to believe that Israel and Hezbollah would ever reach some kind of lasting accommodation where they just agree to stop fighting. I mean, that could be the best anyone hopes for out of all this. Because defeating one side or the other, obviously Israel is not going anywhere. And it's been trying to defeat Hezbollah for decades. Kills its leaders, blows up its strongholds.

[Aaron Bregman]

It's going to continue for a while, Martin.

[US Government Official / Secretary Shultz]

Yeah.

[Aaron Bregman]

And when we meet again, we will probably still discuss the same story of Hezbollah, Israel fighting against each other, invading, retreating Middle East.

[Martin DeCaro]

You're gonna have to continue to write books, adding new chapters to your one on Israel's history of wars.

[Aaron Bregman]

Yeah.

[US Government Official / Secretary Shultz]

Secretary Shultz, on my behalf, has also reiterated our views to the government of Israel through its ambassador in Washington. Unless Israel moves quickly and courageously to withdraw, it will find itself ever more deeply involved in problems that are not its own and which it cannot solve. The participation of American forces in Beirut will again be for a limited period, but I've concluded there is no alternative to their returning to Lebanon if that country is to have a chance to stand on its own feet. Peace in Beirut is only a first step. Together with the people of Lebanon, we seek the removal of all foreign military forces from that country. The departure of all foreign forces at the request of the Lebanese authorities has been widely endorsed by Arab as well as other states. Israel and Syria have both indicated that they have no territorial ambitions in Lebanon and are prepared to withdraw. It is now urgent that specific arrangements for withdrawal of all foreign forces be agreed upon. This must happen very soon on the

[Martin DeCaro]

next episode of History As It Happens, Gaza will speak to historian Jean Pierre Fillu about his new book, A Historian in Gaza, which documents his trip to the enclave last year. As he put it in the opening pages, nothing, nothing at all could have prepared him for what he saw in Gaza. That is next, as we report History as It Happens, make sure to sign up for my free newsletter. Just go to Substack and search for History As It Happened.

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