Podcast Summary: History As It Happens – "The Changing Face of Battle"

Host: Martin Di Caro
Guest: Anatol Levin (Director, Eurasia Program, Quincy Institute)
Air Date: March 6, 2026

Overview

This episode explores the evolving nature of warfare, focusing on how technological innovation—particularly the rise of drones—is reshaping both the tactics and the experience of modern battles. Drawing on historical context, military history, and current conflicts like Ukraine and Iran, host Martin Di Caro and guest Anatol Levin examine how the pursuit of decisive victories has changed (or failed to change) in an era defined by cheap, devastating, and increasingly automated weaponry.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Transformation of the Battlefield: The Drone Era

• Drones as Game-Changers:
  • "Drones have become a key weapon for Russia's war strategy. They are allowing them to carry out mass attacks, but Kyiv has become skilled at adapting on the battlefield." — Michael Clark (01:12)
  • Both sides now rely heavily on drones for reconnaissance and attack, fundamentally altering ground tactics.
  • Drones combined with traditional minefields have produced enormous defensive advantages, making wide advances nearly impossible.
  • "Mines, of course, are very old... now the point is that the other effect of drones, one is anything that moves in the open, men or equipment, can be destroyed." — Anatol Levin (12:38)
• Impact on Offensives:
  • Large-scale tank or infantry assaults are mostly obsolete due to drone surveillance and attacks.
  • Russian attacks now involve very small groups—sometimes as few as three men—who serve as both infiltrators and drone spotters.
  • The era of "human wave" or "meat attacks" is over: "This whole business of Russian, you know, human wave attacks or so called meat attacks is absolute nonsense." — Anatol Levin (02:07, 15:08)

2. Historical Parallels and Lessons Unlearned

• From WWII & Cold War to Today:
  • Di Caro references John Keegan's The Face of Battle (1976) on the elusive nature of "decisive" victories and the deeply personal, immediate effects of battle (04:00–05:54).
  • The desire for quick, total victories—exemplified by WWII, the Gulf War—persists despite evidence these are rare or impossible in modern war (08:11, 33:25).
• Failure to Adapt Military Doctrine:
  • Despite lessons from conflicts like Nagorno-Karabakh, military establishments continue to invest in outdated platforms (e.g., tanks) out of habit, professional interest, and romance.
  • "It's very difficult to give that up. There is the romance involved…the romance of the Blitzkrieg...whereas basically uniformed techies sitting in a hole directing drones...not very romantic." — Anatol Levin (20:40)

3. Air Power’s Illusions and Limits

• Misplaced Faith in Bombing:
  • US and Israeli reliance on air superiority is frequently disconnected from realistic political outcomes.
  • "Why do American presidents continue to make the mistake of believing US Air supremacy might produce desired political outcomes? It is the illusion of air power." — Martin Di Caro (06:31)
• Current Example: Iran War:
  • The ongoing US/Israeli air campaign against Iran is cited as an uncertain venture, with unclear political objectives and a heavy emphasis on air strikes over ground occupation.
  • Reference to historical failures of air-only strategies (Afghanistan, Vietnam, WWII): "Bombing alone does not break the will of a strongly nationalist population ruled by a ruthless, autocratic government." — Anatol Levin (33:48)

4. Robotics and the Future of Battle

• Robot Infantry: Frontiers Ahead:
  • Levin predicts the increasing introduction of robots on the battlefield to do jobs human soldiers won’t or can’t do.
  • "A human infantryman who sees that the men on either side...have been shot down will stop. A robot will keep going. And if enough robots keep going, then they will break through eventually." — Anatol Levin (25:14)
  • Raises ethical and practical concerns: If only machines fight, one crucial democratic check on war (public tolerance for casualties) vanishes (26:40).
• Psychological and Ethical Dimensions:
  • The impersonality and potential recklessness of robot wars.
  • The psychological toll on remote operators, including PTSD among drone pilots who see the people they kill in real time. (28:53)
  • "You can see them trying to run away, you can see their faces...that makes it personal in a certain way that we haven't seen in war since hand-to-hand combat." — Anatol Levin (29:22)

5. Endurance of the "Total Victory" Myth

• 1945 as Anomaly and Model:
  • The post-WWII “total victory” ideal persists in policy imagination, but modern wars rarely present such opportunities (33:25, 33:48).
  • Real victory today is more likely to be indecisive, slow, and costly.

6. Political and Economic Realities of Endless Wars

• The Drumbeat of Attrition and Cost:
  • Modern weapon systems (Patriot, carriers) vs. cheap drones: asymmetrical costs reminiscent of guerrilla warfare, e.g., Afghanistan, Vietnam (41:49).
  • Endless conflict is often perpetuated by technological advantages that lower direct costs for one side (low casualties thanks to drones/air strikes), but don’t change the political reality on the ground (36:39).
• Public Opinion and Political Outcomes:
  • Both democratic and autocratic leaders avoid full mobilizations due to public opposition to casualties (40:01; 37:36).
  • Strategic planning and thinking remain weak, with overreliance on supposed technological solutions to political issues.

7. The Changing Nature of Military History

• Dehumanization of War Narratives:
  • "The more robotic it gets, the more boring it will get...One of the things that, alas, makes war so interesting, it is the human factor...there are other values and much of that will go." — Anatol Levin (42:28)
  • Future military histories may emphasize technology and logistics over heroics and human experience.

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• On Drones and Minefields:
  "The battlefield, this so called killing zone, no man's land, 15 miles wide, is absolutely choked with mines... anything that moves in the open, men or equipment, can be destroyed." — Anatol Levin (12:38)

• Debunking "Human Wave" Attacks:
  "This whole business of Russian, you know, human wave attacks or so called meat attacks is absolute nonsense." — Anatol Levin (02:07, 15:08)

• On Military Tradition & Innovation:
  "It's very difficult to give that up. But also, you know, I think as with horses, there is the romance involved...whereas basically uniformed techies sitting in a hole directing drones to kill enemy soldiers one by one. Not very romantic." — Anatol Levin (20:40)

• On the Future of Ground Combat:
  "I think that's obviously the way to go because, you know, you can get robot infantry to advance where human infantry will not." — Anatol Levin (25:14)

• On Dehumanization & Ethics:
  "It did strike me that...hunting human beings with machines does give you a funny feeling if you're a human being, a very uneasy feeling, not just about yourself, but about the future of humanity." — Anatol Levin (27:14)

• On The Total Victory Myth:
  "That is simply not how it works anymore. Yet total victory continues. 1945 has a hold on our imaginations." — Martin Di Caro (33:25)

• On Air Power's Limits:
  "Bombing alone does not break the will of a strongly nationalist population ruled by a ruthless, autocratic government." — Anatol Levin (33:48)

• On the Changing Nature of Military History:
  "The more robotic it gets, the more boring it will get...it is the human factor." — Anatol Levin (42:28)

• On Revenge and Historical Memory:
  "For God's sake, It's been, what, 47 years?...Get over it, for God's sake." — Anatol Levin (46:57)

Important Timestamps & Topics

| Timestamp | Segment / Topic | |-----------|--------------------------------------------------------------| | 01:12 | Drones’ role in Ukraine-Russia war (Michael Clark) | | 02:07 | Myth of “meat attacks” debunked | | 04:00-05:54| John Keegan on the abolition of battle | | 09:24 | Tech changing Ukraine war more than any conflict since 1945 | | 12:38 | Drones + minefields transform no man’s land (Levin) | | 15:08 | Russian assaults in tiny groups, not human waves | | 18:39 | Not foreseen: Drones would rule the battlefield | | 20:40 | Legacy systems vs. innovation (tanks, horses, romance) | | 23:21 | Air power’s limited impact in Ukraine | | 25:14 | Rise of robot infantry, ethics and implications (Levin) | | 28:53 | PTSD among drone operators | | 33:25 | WWII’s "total victory" myth and its hold on policy | | 36:39 | Perception of air war as bloodless/cheap | | 40:01 | Domestic opposition to full-scale war | | 42:28 | How future war histories will be less "interesting" | | 46:57 | Revenge as a motivator in policy making (Iran, US) |

Memorable Moments

• Discussion of drone surveillance and strikes making large-scale movements impossible and rendering previously essential military equipment (tanks, helicopters) nearly obsolete.
• Ethical concerns regarding a potential future of fully robotic warfare and its impact on the likelihood of war and on collective memory.
• The parallel between romanticized notions of past battles (from cavalry to blitzkrieg) and the grim reality of tech-driven warfare.
• Historical amnesia: US/Israeli overreliance on air power, despite abundant evidence of its limits in effecting regime change or political stability.

Conclusion

The episode delivers a sobering analysis of how new technologies, especially drones and impending robot infantry, are rendering old tactics and romantic visions of battle obsolete. Military strategies often lag behind these realities, clinging to myths of decisive victory and relying on technological quick fixes that fail to achieve political goals. As war becomes more remote, automated, and impersonal, both politics and military history must grapple with ethical implications, potential for reckless conflict, and the loss of human dimensions that have defined both battlefield experience and historical storytelling.