History As It Happens: “The Day of the Dictator (Is Not Over)”
Hosted by Martin Di Caro
Release Date: February 7, 2025
Introduction
In the February 7, 2025 episode of History As It Happens, host Martin Di Caro delves into the enduring struggle between democracy and authoritarianism. Titled “The Day of the Dictator (Is Not Over),” the episode examines the optimism surrounding the end of dictatorships in the late 20th century and contrasts it with the contemporary resurgence of autocratic regimes. Through insightful interviews with historian Jeffrey Engel and the analysis of pivotal historical events, the podcast unpacks why the anticipated wave of global democracy faced significant setbacks.
Historical Optimism: The Fall of Dictatorships
The episode opens with a reference to President George H.W. Bush’s 1989 inaugural address, wherein he proclaimed, “in man's heart, if not in fact, the day of the dictator is over” ([01:12]). This statement epitomized the widespread belief that the Cold War’s conclusion would herald a new era of global democracy and freedom. The optimism was fueled by events such as the fall of the Berlin Wall, the dissolution of the Soviet Union, and democratic movements in Eastern Europe and Latin America.
The Third Wave of Democratization
Drawing on insights from the Carnegie Corporation, the podcast highlights the concept of the "third wave" of democratization, which began with Portugal’s Carnation Revolution in 1974 and accelerated with the collapse of communism around 1990, peaking around 2015. According to Sergei Guryev and Daniel Treisman, by the early 21st century, the number of democracies had surpassed authoritarian states, with “98 countries with free government... compared to 80 still controlled by dictators” ([05:23]).
Challenges to Global Democracy
Despite the initial surge, the podcast underscores a significant reversal in democratic progress. Freedom House’s 2024 report reveals “global freedom has declined 18 consecutive years”, with “political rights and civil liberties diminished in 52 countries” ([06:08]). Other organizations, including the Bertelsmann Foundation and the Economist Intelligence Unit, echo similar sentiments, noting that “only 8% of the world's population actually lives in a full functioning democracy” ([05:23]).
Case Studies
a. Russia: From Yeltsin to Putin
Historian Jeffrey Engel provides a detailed analysis of Russia’s tumultuous transition from democracy to authoritarianism. Initially, Boris Yeltsin’s democratic experiment faltered, culminating in his 1993 crackdown on the Russian legislature, an act Giulian Mikhail Gorbachev and others had hoped to avoid ([20:51]).
Engel notes, “Why is that? Think that's because of what Americans did? Frankly, I think that's because of decisions that were made by Russian policymakers, Boris Yeltsin in particular...” ([17:11]). This set the stage for Vladimir Putin’s rise, where economic prosperity was leveraged to suppress civil liberties, echoing the compromises made by China.
b. Panama: The Invasion of Noriega
The podcast recounts the United States' 1989 invasion of Panama to oust General Manuel Noriega, citing Noriega’s dictatorship and criminal activities ([32:56]). Engel explains, “Noriega also had falsified the results of an election. So not only was he a dictator in the American perspective, he was an illegitimate ruler...” ([35:52]).
The operation was portrayed as a moral imperative to restore democracy and protect American interests in the Panama Canal. However, it also highlighted the complexities and contradictions in U.S. foreign policy regarding democracy promotion.
c. China: Tiananmen Square
The crushing of the pro-democracy demonstrations in Tiananmen Square in 1989 serves as a pivotal moment in the podcast’s narrative. Despite the violent suppression, President Bush opted for restrained responses, balancing sanctions with continued engagement. Engel remarks, “Bush's entire response to this is, yeah, I could increase sanctions, but don't we want the Chinese to come back to the world system?” ([42:01]).
This approach aimed to foster economic liberalization as a pathway to political openness, a strategy that ultimately faltered as China maintained economic growth alongside strict political repression.
The Role of the United States
The United States’ inconsistent application of democratic principles is a central theme. The podcast critiques the U.S. for supporting authoritarian regimes when strategically beneficial, exemplified by ongoing alliances with countries like Saudi Arabia ([28:55]).
Engel points out, “If you think the United States global leadership matters... he's saying, I'm doing what's best for us. That's what got him elected. But that's not great for the future of global democracy.” ([55:23]). This self-interested stance has undermined America's credibility as a champion of liberal democracy.
The Rise and Adaptation of Authoritarianism
Modern dictatorships have evolved, utilizing technology to maintain control without overt brutality. Engel observes, “They are still able to control society without being sadistically brutal and violent to their own populations.” ([50:39]). Countries like Saudi Arabia under Mohammed bin Salman exemplify this trend, where state-managed capitalism coexists with limited political freedoms.
Additionally, the podcast discusses the impact of globalization and economic reforms on authoritarian stability. “They offered the Chinese... economic liberalization, we will keep the GDP rising. You don’t get to mess with civil liberties.” ([49:46]).
The Impact of Technology on Democracy
Engel challenges the optimistic view that the Internet would democratize information and bolster democracies. Instead, he argues that technological advancements have facilitated information silos and misinformation campaigns, weakening the foundation of democratic discourse. “When you give people more information, you can control what information they get if you silo them off.” ([52:10]).
Conclusions: The Present-Day Status of Democracy
Reflecting on 36 years since Bush’s optimistic declaration, the podcast concludes that democracy is in retreat globally. Engel emphasizes that the authoritarian movement often capitalizes on economic discontent, as seen in President Trump’s focus on immediate economic grievances (“prices are too high, things cost too much”), overshadowing political liberties ([53:29]).
The episode warns that without consistent and principled support for democracy, the global trend may continue favoring authoritarianism. As Engel aptly summarizes, “This is the deal. And so I am genuinely concerned that we are in a moment in American history...” ([55:23]).
Notable Quotes:
- Jeffrey Engel ([01:18]): “In man's heart, if not in fact, the day of the dictator is over.”
- George H.W. Bush ([02:33]): “Today, the clear winner of the Russian presidential election, Vladimir Putin, began to establish the Putin era.”
- Jeffrey Engel ([13:15]): “It's not always the person who has the best idea that gets remembered for it. It's the person who says it best.”
- Freedom House ([06:08]): “Global freedom has declined 18 consecutive years.”
This episode of History As It Happens provides a comprehensive examination of the fragile state of global democracy, the resurgence of authoritarianism, and the pivotal role of U.S. policies in shaping these dynamics. Through historical analysis and expert insights, host Martin Di Caro presents a sobering reflection on the promises and challenges of democratization in the modern world.