History As It Happens: "To Love the Bomb" - Episode Summary

Release Date: January 7, 2025
Host: Martin Di Caro
Guest: Joe Cirincione, Former Director of Non-Proliferation at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Introduction to the Nuclear Arms Race

Martin Di Caro opens the episode with a historical overview of the nuclear arms race, highlighting its resurgence in the modern era. He sets the stage by referencing President Truman's announcement about Russia's atomic capabilities and President Kennedy's emphasis on renewing negotiations to mitigate atmospheric contamination.

Historical Context and the Beginning of Arms Control Decline

The discussion delves into the historical trajectory of nuclear arms control, tracing its roots back to the Cold War era. Di Caro references significant events such as the testing of the Tsar Bomba by the Soviet Union and the subsequent devastation it caused, emphasizing its ineffectiveness in deterring the U.S. and complicating future negotiations.

Notable Quote:

"This is a dangerous tactic. It will not deter the United States and its allies, but it will make future negotiations all the more difficult."
— Adlai Stevenson [02:27]

The Rise and Fall of Arms Control Treaties

Joe Cirincione elaborates on the impact of the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, which he states Russia violated "without remorse" ([00:53]). He discusses the broader implications of such violations, leading to a new arms race involving the U.S., Russia, and China. Cirincione introduces his concept of "arms control extinction," explaining how landmark treaties are becoming relics of the past.

Notable Quote:

"After nearly a full year of negotiations, we completed an agreement earlier this year that cuts by a third the number of long range nuclear weapons and delivery vehicles that the United States and Russia can deploy..."
— Joe Cirincione [05:15]

Economic and Political Drivers of the Current Arms Race

Di Caro and Cirincione discuss the economic motivations behind the arms race, pointing out that military contractors like Raytheon, Lockheed Martin, and Boeing are major drivers. The conversation highlights how these corporations benefit from the continuous buildup, making it challenging to halt the escalation.

Notable Quote:

"When you have that kind of money involved, you know, that's what's pushing these programs. You can talk about strategy and doctrine and necessity, military justification, but what really is happening is that there's a river of money in contracts roaring through Washington, through the Pentagon, through the Congress."
— Joe Cirincione [31:31]

The Decline of the Anti-Nuclear Movement

The episode examines the weakening of the anti-nuclear movement, citing reduced funding and influence among arms control groups. Cirincione expresses pessimism about the resurgence of organized efforts to counter the arms race, attributing it to diminished public awareness and waning activism.

Notable Quote:

"Almost all the arms control groups and expert projects in think tanks, academic centers, have decreased in number, declined in influence over the last 20 years."
— Joe Cirincione [37:25]

China's Role in the Modern Arms Race

A significant portion of the discussion focuses on China's expanding nuclear arsenal. Cirincione explains China’s shift from a “minimum deterrent force” to a more substantial stockpile in response to U.S. policies and missile defense initiatives. He warns of a potential domino effect, where other nations may follow suit, exacerbating global nuclear proliferation.

Notable Quote:

"They had the ability to do that. Not many. About 60 of their weapons could reach the United States and that was enough. They deterred us, but then they saw the US... we are now in the process of building a whole new generation of bombers, submarines, missiles, warheads..."
— Joe Cirincione [57:12]

Historical Lessons and Future Prospects

Di Caro and Cirincione reflect on past arms control successes, such as the INF Treaty and the New START Treaty, contrasting them with the current decaying state of international agreements. They express concern that without renewed commitment to arms control, the world is heading towards an unparalleled nuclear arms race with catastrophic consequences.

Notable Quote:

"We are definitely in the nuclear buildup, arms control decline part of this cycle."
— Joe Cirincione [55:42]

Concluding Thoughts and Call to Action

The episode concludes with a somber outlook on the future of nuclear arms control. Cirincione emphasizes the urgent need for a freeze on nuclear proliferation and advocates for diplomatic efforts to halt the arms race before it spirals out of control.

Notable Quote:

"The American people deserve a government that works to reduce risks, not magnify them."
— John Garamendi [60:21]

Final Remarks: Martin Di Caro teases the next episode, which will explore the future of Trumpism and its implications for American conservatism and global politics.

Key Takeaways:

• The nuclear arms race is resurging, driven by economic interests and geopolitical tensions.
• Historical arms control treaties are deteriorating, leading to unchecked proliferation.
• China’s expanding nuclear arsenal poses a significant threat, potentially triggering a global arms race.
• The anti-nuclear movement lacks the momentum and resources needed to counteract current trends.
• Urgent diplomatic efforts are required to prevent a catastrophic escalation of nuclear weapons worldwide.

For More Information:

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