Podcast Summary: History As It Happens

Episode Title: Why Greenland? FDR to Trump
Host: Martin Di Caro
Guest: Mikkel Oleson, Senior Researcher at the Danish Institute for International Studies
Date: January 16, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode explores the peculiar and consequential history of Greenland’s geopolitical significance, especially through U.S. ambitions to acquire or assert control over the island—from President Franklin Delano Roosevelt's secret WWII maneuverings, through Harry Truman’s postwar purchase offer, to Donald Trump’s public overtures and threats. Host Martin Di Caro and expert Mikkel Oleson untangle the legal, historical, and strategic factors that connect these episodes, offering insights into why Greenland has long been coveted, who truly has a say in its fate, and what the future of this massive Arctic territory might hold.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Origins of Danish Rule in Greenland

• Viking Arrival & Colonialism

  • Norse Vikings settled Greenland about a thousand years ago but died out after a couple of centuries. (07:34)
  • Denmark (in union with Norway at the time) reclaimed interest in Greenland in the 18th century for religious and trade purposes, finding only Inuit populations remaining.
  • “It definitely has all the markers of a classical European colony of the time.” — Mikkel Oleson (08:37)

• Greenland Today

  • Small population (~50,000) with a high degree of semi-autonomy; direct local government over domestic affairs, but foreign policy and defense largely under Denmark. (08:45)

2. World War II: Turning Point for U.S.–Greenland Relations

• Henrik Kaufmann’s Bold Move

  • Danish ambassador in Washington refused to acknowledge the legitimacy of Nazi-occupied Denmark.
  • Kaufmann negotiated with the U.S. to permit American defense and bases in Greenland, presenting himself as “the real Denmark.”
  • “That’s a pretty ballsy move from an ambassador, to say the least.” — Mikkel Oleson (09:23)
  • The U.S. accepted the offer due to Greenland’s vital weather stations and potential for military bases. (10:39)

• Weather War & Early Strategic Value

  • Greenland was crucial for meteorological data during WWII; also served as a stopover for planes and logistics. (10:57)
  • The U.S. ousted small German weather stations from Greenland early in the war. (12:05)

• Temporary U.S. Presence

  • WWII-era U.S. presence was legally tied to the conflict’s duration, protected under the Monroe Doctrine from a U.S. perspective. (13:20)

3. Cold War Dynamics & the 1951 Defense Agreement

• Staying Power After WWII

  • The U.S. wanted to maintain its military presence; Denmark used NATO accession as a means to regularize arrangements. (14:03)
  • The 1951 U.S.-Denmark Defense Agreement established broad U.S. latitude in Greenland’s defense areas and base rights. (14:46)

• Secret Nukes: The Danish Dilemma

  • Despite Denmark's anti-nuclear policy, the U.S. successfully stationed nuclear weapons in Greenland, with Danish complicity and secrecy.
  • “The Danish Prime Minister simply ends the letter with: ‘I do not see that this gives ground for me to make any comment at this point.’” — Mikkel Oleson (16:34)
  • Greenland became integral to U.S. early warning and tracking systems against Soviet missiles. (17:09)

4. Post–Cold War & Modern Era: Shifting Strategic Significance

• The Lull After the Cold War

  • The strategic value dipped with the Soviet collapse; U.S. closed many bases, resulting in today’s limited radar coverage. (19:37)
  • Consequence: U.S. now complains about insufficient Danish/NATO investment in Arctic defense infrastructure. (20:15)

• Legal Framework Remains

  • The 1951 agreement (amended in 2004 for more Greenlandic participation) still gives the U.S. considerable operational leeway regarding military and security arrangements in Greenland. (20:38)
  • “In practice, those things put together have created this result that the U.S. has pretty much gotten whatever it wanted when it came to security.” — Mikkel Oleson (20:56)

5. Renewed American Interest: Trump’s Greenland Gambit

• Public Musings and Threats

  • Trump repeatedly threatened to “take” Greenland if Denmark refused to sell, invoking the specters of Russian or Chinese designs on the island. (05:45, 21:32)
  • “If we don’t take Greenland, Russia or China will, and I’m not letting that happen.” — Donald Trump (05:45)

• Absurdity Meets Realpolitik

  • “Of all the insane and disturbing stories we've covered in the Age of Trump, this one might be the most preposterous.” — Martin Di Caro (06:28)
  • Nevertheless, the impulse reflects genuine anxieties about strategic competition matching those of the Cold War. (06:28)

6. Natural Resources & Economic Realities

• Untapped Wealth — or Mirage?
  • Greenland has large deposits of various minerals, including rare earths and uranium, but extreme costs and poor infrastructure hinder profitable extraction. (21:51)
  • “The business case just hasn’t really been there in a lot of cases.” — Mikkel Oleson (22:51)
  • Greenland’s government welcomes foreign investment (“Greenland is not for sale, but it’s open for business”) but bans uranium mining due to environmental concerns. (23:22, 23:48)

7. Melting Ice, Naval Access, and New Tensions

• Changing Arctic, Changing Security Calculus
  • Melting sea ice enables easier naval/undersea movement, heightening military interest from Russia and triggering NATO responses. (24:07)
  • Russia focused on moving its nuclear submarines into the Atlantic via the “GIUK gap,” but invading Greenland would be both infeasible and pointless. (25:33)
  • “For the Russians to sneak an invasion force…it would be virtually impossible. And what should they even do there when they’re there?” — Mikkel Oleson (25:33)

8. NATO Tensions & the Prospect of Invasion

• Would the U.S. Actually Invade Greenland?

  • Physically, no one could stop it, but it would provoke a political and alliance crisis, potentially ending NATO. (28:35)

  • “The Danish Prime Minister recently stated that she foresaw that a military invasion of Greenland would mean the end of NATO.” — Mikkel Oleson referencing Danish officials (28:51)

  • Danish Official Quote (29:15):

    “If the USA chooses to attack another NATO country militarily, then everything stops, including our NATO membership and thus the security that has been established since the end of World War II.”

9. Greenlandic Autonomy and the Desire for True Independence

• Who Decides Greenland’s Fate?

  • Greenlanders have the legal right to pursue independence by referendum, per 2009’s Law of Self Rule; Denmark cannot block this. (32:19)
  • The drive for independence is strong but tempered by reliance on Danish welfare guarantees.
  • “Greenlanders have wanted independence for a long time…the reason they haven’t gotten it is because they haven’t been able to afford it.” — Mikkel Oleson (30:49)

• Why Not Become Americans?

  • Greenlanders prefer the Nordic welfare model to the American system; see U.S. territories like Puerto Rico as insufficiently appealing templates.
  • “They are not seeking to replace one dependency with another. They're seeking true independence.” — Mikkel Oleson (32:19)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Kaufmann’s WWII Diplomatic Maneuver:

  • “He says, well, the Danish government is under duress because of the Nazi occupation. I think that I should be the real Denmark…if I was the true Denmark, then I wouldn’t have any problems with you having bases in Greenland.” — Mikkel Oleson (09:23)

• On Nuclear Weapons in Greenland:

  • “The Danish Prime Minister simply ends the letter with: ‘I do not see that this gives ground for me to make any comment at this point.’” — Mikkel Oleson (16:34)

• On Trump’s Threats:

  • “If we don’t take Greenland, Russia or China will, and I’m not letting that happen.” — Donald Trump (05:45)
  • “One way or the other, we’re going to have Greenland…if we don’t do it the easy way, we’re going to do it the hard way.” — Donald Trump (05:58)

• On the Consequence of Military Action:

  • “The Danish Prime Minister recently stated that she foresaw that a military invasion of Greenland would mean the end of NATO.” — Mikkel Oleson (28:51)
  • “If an invasion was to take place…that kind of thinking is really poison to an alliance.” — Mikkel Oleson (29:34)

• On Greenlandic Aspirations:

  • “Greenlanders have wanted independence for a long time…the reason they haven’t gotten it yet is because they haven’t been able to afford it.” — Mikkel Oleson (30:49)
  • “They are not seeking to replace one dependency with another. They're seeking true independence.” — Mikkel Oleson (32:19)

Important Timestamps

• 00:35 – Henrik Kaufmann announces WWII-era U.S.-Denmark agreement
• 01:15 – Trump and Truman’s interest in purchasing Greenland discussed
• 07:34 – Early Danish colonization of Greenland explained
• 10:39 – WWII: U.S.–Kaufmann negotiations and strategic rationale
• 14:03–14:46 – The 1951 defense agreement and Denmark’s NATO entry
• 16:29–16:34 – Secret nuclear weapons stationing on Greenland
• 20:38 – Amendments to U.S. military rights post-2004
• 21:32–23:22 – Discussion of Greenland’s mineral resources
• 24:07 – Melting ice and renewed military interest in the Arctic
• 28:35–29:34 – Theoretical U.S. invasion and impact on NATO
• 30:49–32:19 – Greenlanders’ independence ambitions and legalities

Closing Thoughts

This episode offers a brisk yet in-depth tour of Greenland’s odd place in global strategy, using both historical anecdotes and current events to question who truly controls Greenland’s destiny, what the U.S. really needs from it, and whether the security of the North Atlantic could hinge on the fate of one vast, icy island. The discussion maintains a tone both wry and sobering, reminding listeners that today’s most outlandish headlines often have deep historical roots.

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