History As It Happens: Episode Summary - World War Ukraine

Release Date: December 6, 2024
Host: Martin Di Caro
Guest: Michael Kimmage, Richard C. Holbrooke Fellow at the American Academy in Berlin

Introduction

In the December 6, 2024 episode of History As It Happens, host Martin Di Caro delves into the complex and ongoing conflict in Ukraine, framed as a "World War" with global repercussions. The episode features insightful discussions with historian Michael Kimmage, exploring the historical roots, geopolitical dynamics, and the multifaceted nature of the war that has transformed Europe's landscape since Russia's invasion.

Historical Context: The Budapest Memorandum (1994)

Thirty years prior to the current conflict, in December 1994, Ukraine made a pivotal decision to eliminate its inherited Soviet nuclear arsenal. This significant move was formalized during a summit on Security and Cooperation in Europe held in Budapest, where Ukraine, Russia, the United States, and the United Kingdom signed the Budapest Memorandum.

Key Points:

• Ukraine’s Nuclear Disarmament: Ukraine agreed to dismantle its nuclear weapons in exchange for assurances of its sovereignty and territorial integrity from the signatories.

  • Bill Clinton at [00:05]: “Ukraine's move is a major step toward ensuring that nuclear missiles never again will be targeted at the children of our nation.”

• Assurances vs. Treaties: Kimmage emphasizes that the memorandum was a non-binding commitment rather than a legally enforceable treaty, rendering it vulnerable to breaches.

  • Michael Kimmage at [04:50]: “The Budapest Memorandum turns out to be not worth much more than the paper it was signed on.”

Despite the optimism of the time, the memorandum lacked the enforcement mechanisms necessary to prevent future aggression, particularly from Russia.

The Erosion of Agreements and Russia's Aggression

The episode traces the failure to uphold the Budapest Memorandum, culminating in Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the subsequent invasion of Eastern Ukraine (Donbas), marking Europe's largest conflict since World War II.

Notable Quotes:

• Joe Biden at [07:16]: “We’re not going to go to war with Russia. The Ukrainians don’t want that. We don’t want that.”
• Michael Kimmage at [07:29]: “The Budapest memorandum is invoked by Ukraine, which is outraged at the violation of its territorial integrity and sovereignty... it almost transparently was... an agreement with no traction, no teeth.”

Kimmage discusses how the lack of military support from the West, despite sanctions against Russia, undermined the memorandum's effectiveness, leaving Ukraine vulnerable to further aggression.

The Globalization of the Conflict

Michael Kimmage introduces the concept of the war in Ukraine as a “world war” due to the extensive involvement of non-European powers. This involvement transforms the conflict into a global geopolitical struggle with far-reaching implications.

Key Points:

• Non-European Involvement: Countries like China, North Korea, Iran, and others have provided support to Russia, either through military aid or economic means.

  • Michael Kimmage at [29:45]: “The war is increasingly becoming the world's war... indirectly fighting for sure.”

• China’s Strategic Interests: China seeks leverage in the conflict to influence post-war European geopolitics and secure its Belt and Road Initiative routes through Ukraine.

  • Michael Kimmage at [32:40]: “China would want to have some stake in war termination... building its own leverage within the war.”

• Implications for Global Order: The involvement of non-Western powers introduces new dynamics, making the resolution of the conflict more complex and intertwined with global strategic interests.

The Role of NATO

The expansion of NATO has been a contentious issue since the post-Cold War era. The initial optimism surrounding NATO’s inclusivity contrasts sharply with present-day tensions.

Notable Discussions:

• NATO’s Expansion: The 1994 Budapest summit included discussions about NATO potentially expanding to include former Soviet states, which irritated Russian leadership.

  • George Bush Sr. at [05:23]: “NATO will not automatically exclude any nation from joining... create an undivided and united Europe.”

• Current NATO Stance: Kimmage argues that NATO expansion is no longer a feasible solution for Ukraine’s security, citing the lack of willingness among NATO members to fully commit militarily to Ukraine.

  • Michael Kimmage at [42:06]: “I don’t think there’s any appetite for speeding Ukraine's path to NATO membership.”

• Alternative Peacekeeping Proposals: A European peacekeeping force, rather than NATO intervention, is being considered as a potential pathway to stabilize Ukraine without escalating the conflict into a broader war.

The Impact on Ukraine

Ukraine finds itself in a precarious position, balancing between continuing the war and seeking a viable negotiation pathway under increasingly dire circumstances.

Key Points:

• Economic and Military Struggles: Ukraine's economy remains in shambles, and the continual loss of territory has debilitated its capacity to sustain prolonged conflict.

  • Martin DeCaro at [27:57]: “Ukraine would have to tip the scales on the battlefield in its favor again to get a better negotiating position.”

• Negotiation Dilemmas: Proposals for peace often involve unacceptable compromises from Ukraine, such as significant territorial concessions or demilitarization, which are politically and socially untenable.

  • Michael Kimmage at [40:39]: “It would be the suicide of Ukrainian statehood... unless you agree to some kind of demilitarization.”

• Zelensky’s Peace Plans: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's recent proposals for negotiating peace in exchange for NATO membership lack broad support within NATO, making them largely ineffective.

Russia's Internal Stability and Economic Pressure

Kimmage examines Russia's internal dynamics, highlighting the resilience of Vladimir Putin’s regime despite mounting economic challenges and potential internal dissent.

Notable Insights:

• Economic Management: Russia's economy, heavily reliant on gas and oil exports, faces high-interest rates and inflation, yet military spending remains robust.

  • Michael Kimmage at [43:33]: “Defense spending in Russia is about six and a half percent... Putin has what he needs to go on with this war for a very long time.”

• Internal Dissent and Stability: The 2023 Prigozhin mutiny exemplifies undercurrents of discontent within Russia, though the regime remains stable.

  • Michael Kimmage at [47:28]: “Conflicts induce pressure on societies... dictatorships are stable until that magical moment when they’re no longer stable.”

• Putin’s Perserverance: Putin views the war as historically significant, drawing parallels to past conflicts like the Siege of Leningrad, and remains committed to the war effort despite its unsustainable costs.

Future Prospects and Possible Resolutions

The path forward remains uncertain, with no clear resolution in sight as the conflict continues to evolve.

Key Discussions:

• Potential for Negotiations: While negotiations are deemed difficult due to Russia’s unwavering territorial ambitions, the necessity for a diplomatic solution remains paramount.

  • Michael Kimmage at [35:06]: “The question of negotiations ultimately depends on what the will or ambition or what the plan is in Moscow.”

• European Peacekeeping Forces: Proposed European-led peacekeeping missions offer a potential framework for conflict resolution without expanding NATO’s military commitment.

  • Michael Kimmage at [42:06]: “A European peacekeeping force in Ukraine that's not occupied by Russia... is being seriously discussed.”

• Long-term Implications: The war's prolongation risks further destabilizing the region and entrenching global power rivalries, necessitating a reevaluation of international strategies and alliances.

Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Bill Clinton ([00:05]): “Ukraine's move is a major step toward ensuring that nuclear missiles never again will be targeted at the children of our nation.”
• Boris Yeltsin ([00:24]): “We are lucky that an attempt of expansion of totalitarian political structures to assault against the human rights, values and freedoms of civilization was a failure.”
• George Bush Sr. ([00:36]): “The Cold War days are over.”
• Joe Biden ([07:16]): “We’re not going to go to war with Russia. The Ukrainians don’t want that. We don’t want that.”
• Ted Cruz ([07:31]): “Under the terms of it, Ukraine agreed to give up its nuclear weapons... in exchange for explicit assurances that the United States would protect Ukraine's territorial integrity.”
• Michael Kimmage ([29:45]): “The war is increasingly becoming the world's war... a coalition of countries, and it's not just a transatlantic coalition.”
• Martin DeCaro ([38:20]): “It’s the Scylla on the one hand of a terrible war and the Charybdis on the other hand of an unacceptable peace.”

Conclusion

The December 6, 2024 episode of History As It Happens provides a comprehensive analysis of the Ukraine conflict, situating it within its historical context and highlighting its transformation into a global battleground. Through Martin Di Caro's engaging dialogue with Michael Kimmage, listeners gain a nuanced understanding of the geopolitical intricacies, the faltering promises of international agreements, and the profound implications for global stability. As the war continues to evolve, the episode underscores the urgent need for informed perspectives and strategic solutions to navigate the complexities of this enduring conflict.

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