History Extra Podcast – "What causes cultures to decline and fall?"

Release Date: November 26, 2025
Host: Matt Elton (Immediate Media)
Guests: Luke Kemp, Caroline Dodds Pennock, Islam Issa

Episode Overview

This episode explores the complex question of why cultures decline and fall, challenging popular images of sudden collapse and total disappearance. Drawing on the new BBC television series "Rise and Fall," three distinguished historians—Luke Kemp, Caroline Dodds Pennock, and Islam Issa—discuss the nuanced factors behind civilization change, the resilience and continuity of cultures, how narratives are shaped by the victors, and what lessons history may offer for our own era.

Key Themes and Discussion Points

1. What Do We Mean by "Collapse"?

• Luke Kemp emphasizes that "collapse" is not an ancient apocalypse but refers to the breakdown of power structures (state, economic, population), not the total ending of cultures. It is a process with varied costs, benefits, and outcomes.

  "Collapse is essentially about the breakdown of different types of power structures... When all these different power systems start to fall together, we often refer to it as a societal collapse." (03:53)

• Caroline Dodds Pennock challenges the common view that collapse means disappearance, reminding listeners about survivors and enduring cultural elements.

• Islam Issa notes that even the most powerful societies have felt themselves undefeatable and yet have fallen—often never foreseeing the possibility.

  "They all fall, so to speak, for different reasons, which I think is fascinating. But...there are similarities in the sense that they didn’t think they would fall. And I think there’s a huge lesson in that." (05:55)

2. Case Studies in Collapse

A. Ancient Egypt and the Ptolemies (06:56)

• Islam Issa outlines the end of the millennia-long Pharaonic period, the rule of the Ptolemies, and the transition to Roman control.
• Discussion of Cleopatra VII, the bias of Roman sources in shaping her legacy, and the limited Egyptian voices due to destruction (e.g., Library of Alexandria).

  "Much of the writing came from Octavian... who ultimately defeated her to become the first Roman emperor." (08:51)

• Longstanding issues noted: economic hardship, Roman interference, social upheaval, sibling rivalry for the throne.

B. Aztec Empire and the Spanish Conquest (12:03)

• Caroline Dodds Pennock describes Tenochtitlan as a vast, sophisticated, gender-relatively-egalitarian city ruling over millions, but not immune to external threats.
• Discusses the immense cultural loss after Spanish conquest, likening destruction to the Library of Alexandria.
• Stresses that indigenous resilience carried through:

  "A million people still speak the Aztec language of Nahuatl in Mexico today... Their society remains vibrant, even in the face of devastating disease, warfare, [and] enslavement." (14:03)

C. Parallels and Common Dynamics

• Luke Kemp synthesizes comparisons:
  • Collapse arises from both internal vulnerabilities (inequality, poor leadership, rigid systems) and external hazards (invasion, climate, disease).
  • Narratives of collapse often come from victors’ and elites’ perspectives—the "1% view of history."

    "While the power structure often collapses... the people and the cultures usually endure." (17:51)

• Rome’s depopulation was more due to supply system breakdown than mass death—"most moved away when the breadbasket of Egypt was lost." (25:04)

3. Artifacts and Cultural Continuity (20:24)

• Caroline: The "Codex Aubin" (“Book of Days”) as a rare indigenous artifact surviving conquest, demonstrating historical continuity through imagery and record-keeping.
• Islam: Egyptian identity as composite (Pharaonic, Roman, Coptic, etc.)—exemplified by a Horus figurine in Roman military garb, showing cultural amalgamation.

  "The item... Horus is a vital God... looks Roman." (22:41)

• Luke: The Moreau head of Augustus, found in Egypt but buried in Nubia, illustrates both Rome’s outreach and its vulnerability.
• Continuity is visible in symbolism—like Tenochtitlan’s eagle-on-cactus image, now the Mexican flag.

4. Fragility and Resilience: Which Endures? (26:35)

• Luke Kemp: Empires and ruling dynasties are fragile; languages, identities, and local cultures are more enduring.

• Caroline: Power shifts were common in Mesoamerica; the Spanish acted as just another—albeit more thorough—dominant power. Tribute systems and social hierarchies largely continued, even under new rulers.

  "So the Spanish actually only replicate almost what the Aztecs themselves had done 100 years earlier..." (27:43)

• Islam Issa: Highlights the persistence of culture and Alexandrian/Egyptian identity despite repeated rises and falls.

• Identity and tradition adapt and persist, even as political systems change or disappear.

5. The Experience of "Collapse" Varies (32:26)

• The impact depends on one's social position and location. For some, life was upended (Roman Britain); for others (rural areas), little changed, apart from tax collectors or language.
• But diseases post-conquest in the Americas caused catastrophic mortality—up to 90% population loss—transforming societies at the deepest level.

  "You're talking about a population decimation of maybe 90%, 100 years after the invasion in central Mexico." (33:18)

6. Signs and Symptoms of Decline (36:39)

• Inequality is a major, often underdiscussed, precursor.
  • Aztecs prided themselves on equality, but growing disparities enabled internal dissent and facilitated conquest through alliances with discontented subject peoples (e.g., Tlaxcalans).
• External shocks rarely work alone; they exploit existing internal fractures.

"The areas that were more likely to rebel were the ones that were more heavily taxed and extracted from." (39:07)

7. Who Controls the Narrative? (40:50)

• Victors often rewrite history, erasing records to legitimate their rule (as both the Aztecs and Spanish did).
• The podcast draws attention to the ongoing struggle over who tells the story—critical for understanding both past and present crises.

  "I'm almost more interested in the other end, like who's going to tell that story and how will we remember it, and who is going to control that narrative in the years to come." (40:50)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Islam Issa (On perspective):

  "Cleopatra was closer in time to the invention of the iPhone than the pyramids being built." (40:03)

• Caroline Dodds Pennock (On continuity):

  "Their society remains vibrant, even in the face of devastating disease, warfare, enslavement." (14:03)

• Luke Kemp (On resilience):

  "The church actually grows in power after the fall of Rome. So some institutions...tend to be much more resilient than others." (26:55)

• Luke Kemp (On popular misconceptions):

  "Collapse is not the end to a social order, nor that everyone dies...it's a process with costs and benefits, winners and losers." (03:53)

Important Timestamps

• 02:53 — Guests introduce themselves
• 03:53 — Defining "collapse" and societal fall
• 06:56 — Ancient Egypt, Cleopatra, and the Ptolemies
• 12:03 — The Aztec Empire’s complexity and fall
• 17:51 — Comparing collapse across cultures
• 20:24 — Objects and artifacts as evidence of continuity
• 26:55 — Fragility vs. resilience: what survives?
• 32:26 — The variable experience of collapse
• 33:18 — Disease and transformative change in the Americas
• 36:39 — Signs and symptoms of decline: the role of inequality
• 40:03 — Lessons, rewritings of history, and the importance of perspective
• 42:49 — The cyclical nature of rise and fall, and warnings for the present/future

Conclusion & Lessons

• Collapse is best understood as a transformation of political and social structures rather than an apocalypse.
• The common narrative of sudden disappearance erases the persistence of cultures, languages, and people.
• Historical lessons are double-edged: every generation overestimates the permanence of its own epoch, and the victors often shape subsequent narratives.
• Internal fractures (especially inequality) and external shocks together drive societies towards major change.
• The control and rewriting of history is ongoing—who tells our present-day "collapse" story will shape how the future remembers us.

Episode Host: Matt Elton
Guests:
• Luke Kemp (Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, University of Cambridge)
• Caroline Dodds Pennock (University of Sheffield)
• Islam Issa (Birmingham City University)

Based on the new BBC series "Rise and Fall."