Hit Parade | Music History and Music Trivia
Episode: Hits of the Year Edition Part 1
Host: Chris Molanphy
Date: December 16, 2022

Episode Overview

In this engaging and data-driven episode, Chris Molanphy explores the intriguing question: What really makes a song the "biggest hit of the year"? He uncovers the counterintuitive math and surprising history behind Billboard’s annual top charts, focusing on cases when the “song of the year” wasn’t the longest-running number one. Using examples from pop history, Molanphy investigates chart oddities, the impact of longevity, timing, changing methodology, and why some year-end winners are legends while others sink into obscurity.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

The 2022 Upset: When “Heat Waves” Beat “As It Was”

• Billboard’s Year-End #1 (2022):
  • Many expected Harry Styles’ “As It Was,” which topped the Hot 100 for 15 weeks (making it one of the four longest-running number ones ever), to be the year’s top song.
  • Instead, Glass Animals’ “Heat Waves,” which only spent 5 weeks at #1, was crowned Billboard’s #1 song of 2022.
  • Quote:

    “So when it came time for Billboard to reveal its year end list... Stiles’ contemplative bop just had to wind up on top, right?... Think again. Billboard announced that this song, ‘Heat Waves’ by Glass Animals, was the actual number one song of 2022.” (01:13)

Chart Longevity vs. Chart Peak

• Longevity Wins Over Highest Peak:
  • Songs with more time on the chart often outperform those with more weeks at #1 due to the way Billboard calculates annual rankings.
  • Examples:
    • 1965: “Wooly Bully” by Sam The Sham and the Pharaohs was year-end #1 despite only reaching #2 on the weekly chart.
    • 2020: The Weeknd’s “Blinding Lights” outperformed Roddy Ricch’s “The Box” and “Rockstar,” staying relevant on radio and charts for months.
  • Quote:

    “The first three rules for year end Billboard chart placement are longevity, longevity, longevity.” (24:08)

The “Last Christmas” Factor and Chart Year Quirks

• Timing Matters:
  • Billboard’s chart “year” isn’t a calendar year; it runs from early December to late November. Hits peaking during holiday season can rule the following year’s list.
  • Example: Susan Boyle’s album sales in late 2009 made her the top album of 2010.
  • The phenomenon is called the “last Christmas” factor.
  • Quote:

    “This happens a lot with albums... But it happens a lot with singles, too. If a song is piling up airplay and sales in the closing weeks of the prior year, it has a huge leg up in the year end Hot 100 competition.” (27:54)

The Murky Past of Billboard’s Year-End Methodology

• Math and Methods Evolved:
  • In the analog era, chart compilation was error-prone and even hand-tabulated; misranked or omitted hits (“ghosted hits”) weren’t uncommon.
  • Billboard has improved data integrity since the Soundscan/1991 digital era.
  • Some songs, like “Good Vibrations” (Beach Boys), “Purple Rain” (Prince), and “I Think I Love You” (Partridge Family), were left off year-end charts due to timing or manual errors.
  • Quote:

    “There was a fudge factor on the charts back in those pre-computerized times... certain songs…got left off the year end surveys entirely.” (31:54)

Superstars Rarely Dominate the Year-End Chart

• Fame Isn't Enough:
  • Many icons—Madonna, Rolling Stones, Michael Jackson, Mariah Carey—even with multiple chart-toppers, failed to score a Billboard year-end #1 at their peak.
  • When a star has multiple big songs, they split their own audience, diluting chart points.
  • Quote:

    “What do Madonna, the Rolling Stones, Donna Summer, Diana Ross and the Supremes, Michael Jackson, Janet Jackson, the Notorious BIG and Eminem all have in common, I mean besides induction into the Rock and Roll hall of Fame? Despite boasting multiple hot 100 toppers, none…ever landed a year end Hot 100 number one.” (36:51)

Does a Year-End #1 Guarantee Ongoing Fame?

• No Coattail Effect:
  • Scoring the “song of the year” doesn’t mean sustained chart success. Many year-end champs became one-hit wonders.
  • Example: Gotye (2012 #1 with “Somebody That I Used To Know”) never returned to the Hot 100.
  • Kim Carnes (“Bette Davis Eyes,” 1981) and Cher (“Believe,” 1999) had no—or very modest—hits after their year-end megahits.
  • Quote:

    “Year end number ones really don’t have coattails. Whether you are an established superstar or a newbie on the charts, it can be hard to follow up the year’s dominant song.” (41:30)

Trivia, Surprises, and Chart Sportsmanship

• “Chart Following Is My Sports”:
  • Molanphy frames chart study as a kind of competitive sport, with upsets and unexpected MVPs (e.g., “Wooly Bully,” “Levitating” by Dua Lipa).
  • 40% of the time, the year-end #1 is not the song with the most weeks at #1, including such surprises as:
    • “You Light Up My Life” (Debby Boone) with 10 weeks at #1 in 1977, missing the year-end title
    • “Despacito” (Luis Fonsi & Daddy Yankee) with 16 weeks at #1 in 2017, also missing year-end #1.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the mystery of Billboard’s formula:

  “We don’t always know how the math is going to shake out.” (16:05)

• On why superstars often miss out:

  “The issue with these mega stars is that they are competing with themselves...fans are spreading their love around to multiple songs by that hitmaker.” (37:50)

• On one-hit-wonder fates:

  “A Billboard year and number one song has to be viewed, as Melly Mel might say, as something of a phenomenon. It might lead to piles more hits, or none at all.” (43:10)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Introduction & 2022 Chart Drama: 00:00 – 03:35
• History of Year-End Chart Upsets (1965, etc.): 07:03 – 12:00
• Examples of Chart Longevity Beating #1 Domination: 18:33 – 24:11
• How Billboard’s ‘Chart Year’ & Holiday Hits Skew Results: 27:54 – 29:22
• Billboard Record-Keeping and Ghosted Hits: 31:54 – 35:00
• Legendary Artists and Year-End #1 Droughts: 36:51 – 41:00
• The Elusiveness of Repeat Success for Year-End Champs: 41:00 – 43:10
• Preview of Next Episode & Credits: 43:10 – End

Takeaways for Listeners

• Being the "biggest song of the year" is about consistency, timing, and chart math—not just dominance or stardom.
• Surprise upsets are historically common, with many iconic songs missing year-end glory, while some “forgotten” hits take the title.
• Billboard’s evolving formula means past quirks are less likely now, but surprises endure—making the year-end chart reveal a genuine pop culture event.

What’s Next

Chris Molanphy promises, in Part 2, a comprehensive rundown and ranking of every Billboard Hot 100 year-end #1 song, highlighting the best, weirdest, and most random winners—including rare repeat champs.

This summary covers the content-rich, insightful body of "Hits of the Year Edition Part 1," omitting commercials and program credits. For the chart trivia enthusiast or pop fan alike, it illuminates the fascinating, often unpredictable world of year-end hits.