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- [00:00]
A
What's interesting is around, like, you know, the 2000 and 20s is around the time where if history does repeat itself, we're probably in or close to the bridge. And obviously, if you look around the world right now, we are in quite a lot of political, social, economic tour.
- [00:29]
B
Welcome to Culture and Code, a podcast about the biggest shifts in culture and tech. I'm Rei Nomoto, a creative entrepreneur and founding partner of iamco, a global innovation firm based in New York, Tokyo and Singapore.
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A
And I'm Tara Tam, managing partner of Strange Ventures, an early stage fund focused on the future of computing.
- [00:47]
B
So today's topic, I would say, is perhaps a little nerdier than our usual b. And this was your response or your review of a recent event that was hosted by Nvidia, and you wrote a post called can American continue its bull run? I subscribed to your newsletter. I, you know, we are connected on LinkedIn and I saw a post about this and he immediately caught my eye because it's not necessarily a topic that I dig deep regularly, but from an intellectual, historical, and professional perspective, it's a topic or it's at least a group of topics that I find interesting. So why don't you give us a quick overview of the event and why you wrote what you wrote.
- [01:44]
A
Yeah, it's an interesting time. So Nvidia, obviously one of the most valuable companies in the world today. I think they just hit, I think, 5 trillion. Yeah. Something crazy, something insane. They held their annual summit, so they hold a conference every year that's very well attended, typically in San Jose. And this year they held a Second one in D.C. for the very first time. And you're like, why? We see there's barely any tech there. Well, the government's there, the White House is there, the Pentagon is there. And it was very clearly a space to share announcements around private public partnerships all around AI and the future of computing. So they announced an AI factory for government. They announced some supercomputers, and they announced, I think, something closer to the quantum space. Right.
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B
Yeah.
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A
And that got me thinking because I've been doing a lot of research into, you know, to invest in the future. I like to look into the past. And so I dug into sort of an anthropological look at sort of technology and economic progress in the US and it was fascinating. And so I did a little graph where I mapped out sort of the. The GDP growth in the US Per capita.
- [02:59]
B
Yeah, I'll bring it up.
- [03:00]
A
Yeah. Across, you know, sort of the last hundred and twenty, one hundred thirty years. And it's really fascinating. So what you see is obviously, you know, sort of between 70, 60, the first industrial revolution. It mostly happened in, in Europe at that time.
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B
Yeah, yeah.
- [03:20]
A
And you can see the US growth was still very much agrarian, so it was very like farming based, agriculture based. You don't, you don't, you didn't see a lot of tech. There was a bridge period where there was a lot of chaos. There was the, you know, the protests in Paris, there was the opium wars and a lot of the technologists and people, you know, obviously also fled.
- [03:42]
B
So this is the bridge period you talk about is from about 1830 to 1870.
- [03:48]
A
Yes.
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B
In the 19th century. Yeah.
- [03:50]
A
And then that's where you started seeing a lot of the tech boom happen in the United States. And this was, you know, what they call the second IR in. And that's where you saw like, you know, the steam engine come across. There was a lot of private and public partnerships where the sort of the national railroad was, you know, built in infrastructure. So a lot of the infrastructure was started being built up then he can kind of see the growth happen.
- [04:15]
B
So this is from 1870 to 1915, the second industrial revolution particularly led in the U.S. that's right, yeah.
- [04:24]
A
So a lot of that happened. A lot of the steam engine happened, a lot of the, you know, good stuff like roads and things were built, all the infrastructure. And then we went into another bridge. And the bridge are periods, you know, if we look at modern history, it's between 35 to 40 years. The bridge. I call periods of honestly pretty extreme social, political and economic turbulence. But that's where a lot of the tech progress happened and the invention happened. And what happened was that, you know, obviously in between 1915 and 1950 were the two world wars. It was an extremely turbulent time for the world. You can see some spikes in terms of the growth and technological progress. But then that led to the boom movement between the 1950s and where we are today, where honestly America kind of took the, you know, sort of tech boom or tech infrastructure that was built during the second IR and just went for it. You can kind of see the GPT. GPT. The GDP growth capital just skyrocket.
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B
Right.
- [05:32]
A
For the last, I want to say, 70 years. So what's interesting is around like, you know, the 2020s is around the time where if history does repeat itself, we're probably in or close to the bridge. And obviously, if you look around the world right now, we are in quite a lot of political, social, economics turbulence. And we are also seeing A lot of technological innovation and invention happen.
- [06:01]
B
So just to pause here a bit, we've seen these pockets of bridges that are sandwiched by major revolutions happening in society. First back in the 18th century in Europe, and then in the early part of late 19th century and the early part of the 20th century in the US industrial revolution and then the latter half of the 20th century and in the first 10, 20 years of the 21st century as the Information age, that revolution. And you, you're saying that like we are now in the bridge phase before the next major revolution, which we could call the AI revolution or intelligence revolution. Is that, is that the point that you are making here?
- [06:50]
A
My hypothesis, I mean, that's my hypothesis obviously, assuming that patterns repeat themselves, right. And who knows, you know, we, you know, we may live life in cycles or there might be things that break patterns, we don't know. But my hypothesis is that if, you know, if we assume that patterns repeat, we are probably in the bridge right now.
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B
In the bridge, yeah. Talk a bit more about what happens during that bridge period. You know, you said a lot of inventions take place, a lot of tech.
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A
Inventions actually took place during those periods, you know.
- [07:22]
B
Yeah.
- [07:23]
A
Transistor was invented during sort of that, you know, World War I, World War II. A lot of the sort of signs that happen, happened then. So it's a pretty uncomfortable situation, right, where I think, especially if you're living day to day and you're seeing so all of this chaos, that it's quite hard to realize that, you know, we are living in very parallel worlds. But I think this very same thing is happening today. I think we're seeing a lot of frontier tech happening, you know, not just in AI, in robotics, in self driving cars, in, you know, sort of new types of high speed railway systems. I think there's a lot of invention happening right now, but we're also in a, in a period of extreme social economic turbulence. And I think this is a pretty common thread. I mean, when the industrial revolutions happen, people were put out of work, machines automated, a lot of jobs. And you know, they replace like horse carriage trainers and you know, horse carriage drivers and so on, right? So cars remove that machines and factories replace the very agricultural way of living, which is not agrarian way of living, which was totally different. We introduced the 40 hour work week. Right. Was actually came out of the Ford factory thing to come. Yes.
- [08:51]
B
Wow, I did not know that. Yeah, yeah.
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A
So the 40 hour work week was born out of the Ford factory.
- [08:56]
B
Yeah.
- [08:56]
A
Well, I would say that, you know, sort of the Industrialization across those periods changed our lives. And there was a lot of adjustment to be made. Right. A lot of people adjusted to, oh, now we have to go to a factory and clock in for hours a day. You know, that wasn't a case before that. Before that, you know, work was very different. You probably worked only during, you know, sort of the sunny, sunny times or when it was optimized. Exactly right. You know, it was a very different. So all this sort of leads into a lot of social, political and economic.
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B
Yeah.
- [09:33]
A
And I would argue we're probably in a very similar time.
- [09:36]
B
Yeah, I'll show. I'll talk about a few different things. So screen that we are looking at is this timeline from all the way from 1750 till 2020 and then the GDP of, of the, of the US going just shooting up, you know, to the right and then a few different stages, phases, phases of industry revolution followed by the bridge, second industrial revolution followed by bridge, and then information age. And then now we are in yet another bridge period. And I'm going to show something that a friend of mine did which is somewhat similar in terms of the timeline that we're talking about, but different. And this is sort of a combination of Japanese and English. So I'll describe what it is. So starting from 1900s so that, you know, the end of the 19th century and the beginning of the 20th century. So this is a friend of mine who drew this stages of industry revolution. So going from 1 through 6 and 1900s to 8. 1980 is the first phase with the hardware. And in 1980 was the combination of the hardware and electronics. And in 2000 or around 2000 was hardware, electronics and software. And in 2005, that's when software, network and service merged to form new services such as Yahoo, Google, Amazon, Facebook and so forth. 2015 was a combination of all those things, hardware, electronics, software, network, service. And then finally he's. And then by the way, this graph that I'm showing you, this was created maybe about eight years ago, so it's a little bit outdated. It's adding to hardware, electronic software, network services, but also data and AI. And his argument is that, you know, this is going to create yet another industrial or information age revolution. So I thought when you were talking about the graph that you made and you made this a little while ago, right?
- [11:39]
A
About a year ago. Yeah, about a year ago, yeah, yeah.
- [11:43]
B
And in the graph that I was showing was much, much older than, you know, was six or seven years ago. So it's a little bit outdated, but it's interesting to observe these patterns. I would say, like one thing that may come out of this bridge and then as we get into the next revolution, which we might call, let's say, just for the sake of this argument, intelligence age. And this is not my quote, but it was from another friend of mine who recently wrote a book called Rethinking Work. And in it he talks about how jobs that we have and people like you and I may be a little bit different in that, you know, we have our own companies or thing that we do on our own, but majority people out there have jobs. But this friend of mine, his name is Richard Tabakwala, he's a futurist, strategist, business strategist. And his argument is that jobs, as we know, will be very different, you know, say five, ten years from now. And people may not have jobs like nine to five or nine to six jobs the way. The same way that we do, but then we have to adapt to have work and then basically take on different jobs as an individual contributor. So it's not a corporation, you know, working for a corporation for several years and move on to the next corporation and so forth. But we have to adapt to maybe like an early version of it is a gig economy. But maybe one of the consequences that we will see out of this bridge period is the work or the jobs as we know them may change quite, quite drastically.
- [13:45]
A
Yeah, like, you know, similar to how the agrarian work culture is now different from the factory work culture.
- [13:52]
B
Yeah.
- [13:52]
A
I believe that the term that you're looking for is a portfolio career, and I think that's pretty common, especially with the gen zers means, you know, you have a handful of things that you do, and it's a portfolio career versus one track, which I think is quite interesting.
- [14:09]
B
Yeah, I kind of wonder. I only imagine that will be more difficult to manage for a lot of people because on one hand I think you have flexibility in terms of when or where to work. On the other hand, you have to, I think, constantly hustling and you have to have like multiple connections to have, you know, different jobs from different people. And we have a portfolio. Right. And you have a network of companies that you work for. And you know, in the creative industry, it's a fairly common thing to do, but you do have to be constantly hustling, which some people might enjoy, a lot of people might not enjoy. And it may be suited for certain types of industries, but you also may not be suited for a lot of other industries. So, you know, I haven't thought deeply into this topic, specifically how the job functions and how one might build a career, how that could change because of this AI. But and I don't know if it's the next five years or next 10 years that we'll see this bridge period where there's a lot of disruption and uncomfortable uncertainty for the majority of people, especially white collars. And I'm already seeing, and I'm sure you see this as well in your circle or in your different circles that you have. But I'm definitely seeing a lot of people who are on one hand thriving, but then a lot of other people who are just struggling in terms of being laid off. And I mean there's just a ton of that happening right now, more so than I would say, like in the past 25 years that I've been, you know, working professionally that like I've seen a few recessions. One was like around 2000 when I started my career, another one was around 2008. And yeah, I guess the COVID was one nature induced recession. And around that time, you know, there was a boom of tech companies hiring a lot of people. But then that was followed by a fairly major sequence of layoffs from big tech companies. And then now I feel like it's happening not just in big tech, but like, you know, Amazon just announced that they were laying off like 14,000 people or something. And then Walmart said that they're not hiring anybody for the next few years, they're just keeping their workforce flat. So few years ago, the disruption in terms of the labor market, particularly in the white collar market, we're seeing that start to ripple outside of the tech knowledge worker sector.
- [16:58]
A
Yeah, I think it's a really great example of how the macro will affect the micro on a day to day basis. Right. There's a lot of restructuring and upheaval. As you know, companies are trying to figure out where they really want to end up. I think no one knows yet. So you see sometimes companies firing, then rehiring. You know, like there's a lot of turbulence generally as companies are trying to figure out like, you know, what skill sets do they need next? You know, what.
- [17:28]
B
Yeah.
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A
Capabilities do they need next? And so on.
- [17:31]
B
Yeah, yeah. I mean on that note, I think there are a lot of company, I mean one of the headlines that I see quite a bit in the past couple of months is companies that invested in AI are not seeing the return as much as they thought. So maybe that's another disruption or another uncertainty of the bridge period that you talk about. People thought oh, you know what, Like, AI is here and this is going to save a lot of money and this is going to save a lot of things. But then over the past year or two, whatever they invested, they may not be seeing returns of that as much as possible, as much as they thought that they would.
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A
I think it's a combination of different things. I know the report that you're, you're referring to, I mean, there are reports out there as well that say that, you know, 60% of CEOs want to use AI.
- [18:25]
B
Yeah.
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A
And only like 15% have started pilots. So I think it's still very new.
- [18:32]
B
Yeah, Yeah. I mean, you know, you and I have gone through the different cycles of things, but, you know, perhaps 20 years ago, when the Internet was becoming a thing and everybody talked about, oh, you know, E commerce this and digital this and network that, it took a good five to 10 years for a lot of the CEOs and companies to catch up with that and fully embrace it. And actually even like as recent as, you know, three or five years ago, that people or some companies that even like that I work with or that I, that I know were still catching up with, you know, desktop, Internet, mobile and social. And then once they felt like they were finally close to catching up with that, then this AI thing happened.
- [19:15]
A
Yeah.
- [19:16]
B
And yeah, it's just kind of a rat race where you can never fully catch up with the speed of technology and the speed of progress. Yeah, I'm kind of curious like, like, I have a feeling this is not necessarily based on any scientific research by any means, but you know, the bridge period that you talk about over the past 150 years to almost 200 years, the first bridge period is 1830 and 1870, about four years. And then the second one is 1915 to 1950. And I wonder if this period, bridge period that we are, or maybe we have already entered, I kind of wonder if that would last as long as that.
- [20:01]
A
30 years. I know.
- [20:03]
B
Yeah. I wonder if it's more like five to, five to 10 years.
- [20:07]
A
I mean, that's always the hope, right? But who knows? Again, patterns are meant to be broken. I think we are already in it, so we're probably a couple years in it. But yes, it's pretty sobering because it might be the rest of our lives or careers, really.
- [20:22]
B
How would you, as an individual working in the intersection of tech and business or investment, like, how do you think your job will be impacted and how do you foresee you changing your approach?
- [20:38]
A
I mean, I think everyone's job is to stay nimble. Right?
- [20:42]
B
Yeah.
- [20:43]
A
There's still, there's still work to be done. There's still, you know, but business to be done in times of, you know, in these moments. And it's whether you are a wartime CEO or a peacetime CEO. And I think that that's kind of the mindset that, you know, we have to come in. I mean, as me personally, as an investor, my job is to just stay on top of all of this and understand where the world is heading and, you know, what kind of companies or technologies are needed in the future. Like that's my mandate. Really.
- [21:15]
B
Yeah, yeah.
- [21:16]
A
And I think that that's not changed where the sort of, you know, chess pieces and how they're laid out is different, is changing, constant. But that's the still the game.
- [21:26]
B
What's changed between say like when you started strange a couple a few years ago and now like what are you doing different?
- [21:34]
A
I think the last two years have been more turbulent in terms of sort of political, social and that's affected or has had impact on tech. So for example, I mean in my piece I talked about how America has basically relinquished manufacturing from the U.S. yeah. And I laid out a whole bunch of reasons why in particular was this rare earth stuff. So rare earths, they're not rare, they're just minerals that are found on earth that we use them for, you know, our phones, our EVs, you know, and different. Different sort of technologies, Right?
- [22:15]
B
Yeah.
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A
So what's interesting is that it's not hard to mine and you can kind of find it in many different countries. But what's hard to do is the refining of it. So after you extract it from Earth, you kind of have to go through a whole bunch of chemical processes too. Separate the elements from stuff.
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B
Yeah.
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A
And that refining process is horrible. Honestly, it's, it's like chemically and environmentally super toxic. It's very hard work. It's not fun, it's not cushy. It's not the knowledge economy that the US has, you know, put its money into since the 80s.
- [22:59]
B
Yeah.
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A
It's like back breaking environmentally harming work.
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B
Yeah. So China is dirty work.
- [23:07]
A
Horrible. So China decided to in eight, in the, is it 80s or 90s? They decided to 90s. They took it on. So they said we're going to take it on, we're going to take the sacrifice. So they, you know, reduced regulation around environment and all of stuff and people and then they went all in. So they basically over the last 30 years took on the monopoly of rares. And so, you know, I would say that this has a kind of a lot of follow on effects. Right. So there's like a tariff war happening as a trade war happening.
- [23:40]
B
Yeah.
- [23:41]
A
But what really is going on is that there's a little bit of a sort of battle going on around tech. Right. That that's really the cornerstone. Everyone is, you know, trying to play a tech and defense all at the same time around technology because that's where the growth is and that's where the next bull run will happen. Yeah, yeah, See, everyone wants that growth.
- [24:03]
B
Yeah. I'm just showing a map of rare earth elements across markets. And this is another diagram from your piece and it shows that China dominates the reserves of rare earth minerals in the world, about 40% and 69% of mining. But in terms of refining, China does essentially 90% of refining, just as apparel, US only has 1.6% of reserves and when it comes to refining, less than 5%. So I mean when I was out just to go back the Nvidia conference, I didn't watch the whole thing, but I watched the, a good portion of it. And the opening video of that reminded me of the space war or Cold War, you know, of the night of the 1960s. And, and I was thinking that. And then he actually, Jensen one later in his speech talks about, oh, we are in the Apollo moment without necessarily mentioning China specifically. But that's exactly what he was talking about. You know, back in the 1960s it was the US against Russia or Soviet Union, I should say, back then. And then now it's the US against China. But the difference is, I think is that while US may have the ip, the softball, the intellectual property and all of that, but the US doesn't have the physical goods, the rare earth minerals. And China holds a good portion of what the world needs. So yeah, it'll be, I mean we're not, this is not a geopolitical show, but I think it's going to be an essential part of, of any society and any especially companies that are in tech and or manufacturing. I think it's going to be, you know, heavily impacted by the relationship of these two countries.
- [26:13]
A
Yeah, absolutely. And I think that, you know, like I often say, you know, the US owns the top parts of the stack. So like the software, the ip, the big, you know, cloud companies in China owns a lot of the manufacturing, the kind of industrialization, a lot of the. Yeah. You know, sort of whether it's batteries or materials or processing of that stuff.
- [26:37]
B
So.
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A
So I would say yeah, it's Interesting. I mean, I, I think that whether America continues its bull run, I think, has to come down, you know, the next couple of years or the next five to seven years or 10 years would be absolutely critical. I think it'll be very critical in terms of setting the pace for the next 70 years.
- [26:59]
B
So we are, I mean, half jokingly, but half seriously, a company like Nvidia, and particularly company like Nvidia, I, I think the position that they've taken is a really peculiar one in that it sort of struggles between the US and the China markets. And, you know, Jason Jensen, Juan, he's not from China. He's originally from Taiwan. He grew up in the U.S. you know, he. I think his Chinese is. Is okay, not great, but still able to get by. And that aspect of leadership, I think, goes a long way for creating relationships with both the US President and, you know, I was looking up before this conversation that what his reputation might be in China, and he's sort of a mixed bag. You know, he's respected for his leadership. At the same time, from a political perspective, you know, he's clearly more pro us, obviously, and it has to be pro present as well. And yeah, we can talk probably the next three episodes just talking about this. Such a deep, deep topic. But, like, I don't see the decoupling of China in the U.S. for a long time. And I mean, you know, U.S. is trying to bring back manufacturing into the U.S. but just based on this map which is showing China has a lot of the power that we, the US Wasn't, you know, investing for the past three to four decades, and now China, China definitely has. Has a driving power for the rest of the world.
- [28:44]
A
I mean, my underrated opinion, I don't know if it's unpopular, but it's underrated, is that, you know, having lived in multiple continents, especially in the U.S. the EU and Asia, I've not lived in China. I definitely have a lot of Chinese friends.
- [29:00]
B
Yeah.
- [29:01]
A
You know, who are here in the US or who grew up here or Australia and all of that. My original opinion is that I actually think that Americans. So take away the political politics and all of that.
- [29:11]
B
Yeah.
- [29:11]
A
Americans and China. Chinese are very similar in terms of personality.
- [29:17]
B
What do you mean by that?
- [29:19]
A
Like, just in terms of, like, their sense of humor and their outgoingness and their sort of way of being. It's actually quite similar. I find that they're very complementary, Chinese and Americans, like on the people level, not on the politics. I know. You know, you're like, you can't generalize an entire thing. But yeah, no, I did, you know, but I would say like, for example, Europeans and Japanese are a little bit more similar. Obviously there's a huge continent. Right. But like, I would say, you know, but there's a lot of, like, there's more like structure, formally formality, tradition. Yeah, I think that that's, you know, very sort of similar in terms of vibe and pace.
- [29:59]
B
Yeah.
- [30:00]
A
But energetically, I find like China, Chinese and Americans are very similar. Like, they're very energetically, I think. I don't know, just very similar.
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B
Just that awful.
- [30:11]
A
Much less formal. Yeah.
- [30:15]
B
A few things. And this may be an unpopular opinion.
- [30:19]
A
Potentially political incorrect end on this note. Yes.
- [30:23]
B
Yeah, yeah, yeah, just let us know. Yeah, I had a Jewish boss. This is like 10, 15 years ago. And, and he had a Chinese American wife, slash partner.
- [30:35]
A
Okay.
- [30:35]
B
And he jokingly, but I think he was fairly serious when he said, oh, there are a lot of similarities between Jewish people and Chinese people. And I'm not going to get into the detail of that, but I thought was, was, was quite interesting. And it just, what you just said made me remember that conversation that I had with my, my old boss that I worked for a long, long time ago. And then the second thing is, is that your comment about Japanese and European and I would say a couple things. Japanese and Scandinavians particularly, I think share a lot of similarities and similar sentiments. I think, like, you know, Danish, Danish furniture design and the Japanese craftsmanship, there's a lot of similarities. But I remember going to a speech in Norway and the organizer before I went on to stage warned me that Norwegian is shy. They never ask questions after presentation. So don't be offended if nobody raises hands and never asks questions, which is very much the case in Japan. Like if you give a speech or even like a small classroom, let's say, people wouldn't raise hands to ask questions. Yeah. So, you know, and then this was. It wasn't this. It was maybe like three, 400 people. So it was a decent size. And then, you know, I did have like five minutes of Q A and I was ready. At least I was glad that the organizer warned me about. Sure. Nobody raised their. Their hands. And then the moderator was kind enough to moderate a couple questions there, you know, but yeah, just reminded me of, of similarities of different cultures in different, different countries. Yeah. So. And yeah, I mean, having lived here for a long time, having lived in Asia and you know, having been from, from Asia, I worked in China for several years, so I'm relatively familiar with the market. But you know, not in depth. Yeah, the thing is, it's. It's kind of the world is more dividing than ever, and then the countries are kind of going in different directions. You know, the US Is going different directions than what it used to be, what it used to do, but at the same time, you know, we are more connected than ever, so we. We can't live without each other. And, yeah, next five years, I think, will be a bit of a bumpy ride. And, yeah, it's kind of up to the individuals how to. How to survive and how to get through to the other. Other side. You know, we're still young enough to have a couple decades of Korea, I hope. And, yeah, the next five to 10 years will be the bridge period.
- [33:24]
A
It's probably more like 20 years, if I were to be very honest.
- [33:28]
B
You think so?
- [33:29]
A
I think it will be more like 20 years.
- [33:30]
B
You think so?
- [33:31]
A
That's not to say you can't have a career during a turbulent time. Lots of people. Yeah, but it is. You know, I would say it's probably a 20 year.
- [33:41]
B
Yeah, I think that's a good sort of mindset. And perhaps to. To end this conversation, like, instead of having wishful thinking, hey, we'll be okay, or, you know, we should get through this, like, going into knowing the bridge period can be turbulent and can be a little bit bumpy. Knowing that, I think would help us at least be ready for the bumpy ride as opposed to be hit unexpectedly by these bumps, which we. I think we're already seeing, you know.
- [34:12]
A
Yeah, yeah. And I think that's a true definition of optimism. Right. Like, you're actually quite an optimist. Realist. I don't know what the term is, but there you go.
- [34:19]
B
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. I guess there's a finite.
- [34:23]
A
Anyways, well, it was great to chat. Yeah, you too.
- [34:26]
B
This. This was definitely a different beat, but I hope this is as interesting to the. To the audience as I found. Found it interesting.
- [34:34]
A
Yeah, likewise. See you later.
- [34:35]
B
Take care. All right.