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- [00:00]
A
Foreign.
- [00:04]
B
This is the last recording of 2024. How are you, Anna?
- [00:08]
A
I'm really well. How about you, Ray?
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B
Good, good. Yeah. So we're just happy that the year.
- [00:12]
A
Is over or are you sad?
- [00:14]
B
I think I'm like, mentally in a good place in terms of 2024, and I'm definitely excited for 2025. You know, it's always a good time to reflect, but also a good time to look forward. How about you, Anna?
- [00:26]
A
I mean, I guess both. I'm also in a really, really good place and have been for some time, so I'm like, oh, I mostly I look forward to the break. I need a break. I need a timeout. So I'm kind of like, come this Saturday. Like, that's what I'm looking forward. I'm not. There is no big ideas and big thoughts. Yeah, it's just more like I just need to. Not to be part of the machine for a minute. You cool?
- [01:00]
B
All right, so this last recording of 2024 for hit makers, how brands influence culture. The plan today is for you and I to talk about patterns and predictions for 2025. And I was. The last couple days I've been thinking about, you know, what should I. What should I bring to the table? What should we talk about? And I have some specific ones and I have some abstract ones that I actually want to use this as a. As a place to crystallize my thoughts. Yeah. So I have about four or five things, three, maybe bigger themes and two sort of specific ones. What about you? What?
- [01:41]
A
It's very similar because I usually don't do those predictions. I don't like predictions. And I'll tell you why. Mostly because I don't like prediction. Mostly because I don't think there is one future. I think there are different futures. And I think that the role of the game is not to have strategy and predictions, but to have that creative production to be set up to respond really quickly to what's happening. And that's basically the only opposite of.
- [02:18]
B
I see.
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A
I see predicting what is going to happen and how you build around it. It's like, how do you set up for the inherently unpredictable?
- [02:27]
B
Sure, sure. So it's more about setting up the system so that you can react very quickly to what might be happening. Because, I mean, to be fair, nobody can predict the future. And the moment that you predict, then you know, you are most likely to. You're most likely to be wrong. And maybe not wrong all the time, but at least having that system to react to it could set you Up.
- [02:49]
A
Well, I think. Exactly. And I think, like, I'll tell. Like we can unpack it more. And I also think that in cultural markets, which we both operate, in which the brands operating creative products that. That. That we create and you and I create.
- [03:04]
B
Yeah.
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A
Operating that they're inherently predictable because they depend on people's tastes and what people pay attention to, what their preferences are, which are super socially influenced.
- [03:17]
B
Yeah.
- [03:18]
A
Oh, it's that social influence is the root of unpredictability. Why some things go viral, why some things catch, why, what is the context? What is the zeitgeist, what is the mood? So I believe in studying more that what is the right mood? And.
- [03:34]
B
Yeah.
- [03:35]
A
Because anyone can start a trend then.
- [03:38]
B
Sure.
- [03:38]
A
Rather than focusing on trends, which I think it's really narrow. So it's really, for me, thinking about, and this is truly real world thinking about, how do you set the organization, how do you build a narrative, how do you create. How do you create a cultural influence stack, which is this entire podcast is about. So you have a portfolio of cultural products.
- [04:03]
B
Yeah.
- [04:04]
A
And then different members of creative class and then media amplification to ensure they're successful. So how you can basically engineer success of something rather than predicting what's going to be successful.
- [04:16]
B
Yeah. Cool. All right, so should we start exchanging some ideas that we have?
- [04:20]
A
Yeah, I already started.
- [04:23]
B
Okay. Okay. So the first topic that I've been thinking about, and I actually need your help unpacking this, I think. Okay.
- [04:33]
A
So I'm gonna send you a check, blank check to fill it later.
- [04:40]
B
Yes, Whatever I can afford. Right. So the first. This is more of a thematic one as opposed to a specific one, is what I'm calling boring is the new cool. And I mean this in a couple of different ways. And I came across this idea as I was thinking about what I wanted. What I've been thinking about recently in terms of a hit list and one brand that I'm not deeply engaged in, but I'm noticing popping up in culture more and more recently in the past like six month or so, and then probably this month pretty soon is duolingo.
- [05:26]
A
Oh, okay.
- [05:27]
B
Yeah. So duolingo. I mean, have you. Have you ever used duolingo?
- [05:31]
A
No, I haven't.
- [05:32]
B
Okay. I've used it in the past.
- [05:34]
A
I'm Duolingo.
- [05:36]
B
Duolingo, exactly. Same here. Same here. Yeah. And I know a couple of people that use duolingo, and I see them posting about duolingo not every week or that often, but from time to time. And something like duolingo is Not a, like, I don't, I never saw, saw them as a cool brand. It's definitely not a, a fashion brand. You know, it's not, it's a, it's completely utility brand. Right. In that it helps you learn a language. But I, I, I sense that it's making, it's definitely gaining more presence than I expected from a utility brand that I thought was more of a specific utility than like a Google or ChatGPT type thing. Yeah.
- [06:25]
A
Interesting. Why do you think that is?
- [06:28]
B
Well, two things. One is Dave, over the past year to two years or so developed a tone of voice that's speaking successfully to perhaps Gen Z in a way that we didn't expect. So the tone of voice is a little bit of sarcasm, but not in a malicious way. So for instance. Right.
- [06:54]
A
Oh, I love that. You know, like that's jumping in. Before we get into your example, I just want to see if, since the topic is trend predictions, I do want to say that we've seen the trend towards like more sense of humor, poking fun, brands poking fun of themselves, not taking themselves so seriously, being witty, being humorous, having like a little bit of a wink. And I like. Let's talk later about why I think is, I think has a lot to do with cancel culture, but go ahead.
- [07:24]
B
Yeah, so what I know what I've noticed about Duolingo, again, I haven't used Duolingo recently, but I'm noticing other people use it and they're celebrating it in a way that I didn't expect, which is so the tone of voice that Duolingo has as a brand and particularly that character, the owl character, which by the way has a name called Duo. Again, he's not a cool character. It's not something that I would, I would expect anybody to wear on a T shirt or anything like that, but it has a certain sarcastic tone of voice that is, that has a sense of irony without being malicious. Right. And like when you are making certain achievements in the app, hey, you know what, you had two weeks of practice streak or what, what have you. It, it's now actually calling you out for failing. So it will say things like, oh, you didn't do this or you failed to, you know, keep up this streak. So it's calling you out on certain failures, but in a way that, at least from my observation, that you don't feel attacked. Yeah. And so, and the, the way that I, and then most recently it's actually happening in a couple of weeks, you know, week or so. So they partnered with, you know, the, the, the Netflix, the Korean Netflix show Squid game. And the second version of that is coming out, I think, 25th of December 25th. Yeah. So Duolingo is partnering with Netflix and specifically with the Squid game to help people learn Korean.
- [08:58]
A
Oh, wow, that's. That's amazing, actually.
- [09:01]
B
Yeah. Yeah.
- [09:02]
A
So how many people are actually gonna really learn Korean?
- [09:06]
B
I don't know. I don't know. Yeah. But what, what I find interesting.
- [09:11]
A
I love the idea. I mean, love the idea. Yeah.
- [09:13]
B
What I'm finding interesting about, like this thought started with Duolingo, which, like I said earlier, I never saw as a cool brand, is slowly but definitely gaining cultural presence in a way that I didn't expect over the past six or 12 months. And I think it's going to. Going to continue in 2025. And I think that there will be more sort of boring brands or boring utilities that are going to gain that kind of cultural cachet in 2025. More.
- [09:51]
A
How do you think they're going to get that cultural cache? Because Duolingo is gaining it through Netflix, which is a brand that is creating content.
- [09:59]
B
No, I know. I would say I think Netflix is sort of the icing on the cake. I think that like the, the tone of voice.
- [10:07]
A
Tone of voice. Okay, got it.
- [10:08]
B
Yeah. That they've developed over the past year to two years or so specifically for. Through social media and specifically through TikTok.
- [10:16]
A
I agree with that. And then let's let me build on that from a little bit different angle because I did want to address that tone of voice because, you know, when you have that cheeky tone of voice, when you make fun of yourself, then you're almost, you're almost attack proof. And I'll tell you why. You know how Gwyneth Paltrow takes herself not seriously? She's poking fun at herself at daydreg and, you know, like she was an uber eats eating a candle and being like, oh, you know, so you, like, you can't. You can make fun of someone who is already making fun of themselves. You can't attack someone who is already poking fun at themselves, you know. So I think that this is something that all brands need to think about because being canceled comes from all directions. Sustainability, equality, diversity from. You never know, you know, when you're gonna get criticized for something as a brand. So rather than doing crisis communication, which is very reactive, I think that we are going to see, or I hope that we are going to see a lot of communication that is proactive. So that goes back. How do you design yourself in a robust way for many different versions, for many different futures. So that you're not really predicting what's going to happen in the world, but you're reacting what's happening. So now that will mean for me goes back to two things for brands. One is having a portfolio approach to their cultural products. Which means as a brand you need to think, you need to create a lot of different things, cultural things, collaboration, the advertising content, media experiences, events, profiles of your executives, partnerships, creative collaborations, everything at the same time. So if you get canceled for one thing, all other things can compensate for. For that. So you know how before is like Budweiser ad with the trends. One thing they didn't have anything to offset it at the time.
- [12:23]
B
Right, right.
- [12:24]
A
You know, in, in, in. In a sense. And when you see like there is a. I saw LinkedIn example of Puma, which was like one of their sponsored players there was like keep sleeping on the grass. And it was like a scandal because that player, soccer player was complaining how Puma sneakers suck and so on. So Puma immediately invited him. Slippery. It's not how much you fall, it's how you pick yourself up. You know, you turn things around very quickly because you are set to that responsiveness number one.
- [12:56]
B
Do you.
- [12:57]
A
And because you're doing so many other things.
- [13:00]
B
Yeah. Do you think that those little things that you do, it's not just one big thing, but smaller things that you do. Do they need to be connected to each other? Do they need to be related to.
- [13:10]
A
Each other or can they be like. They don't need to be. It's not matching luggage. So in the sense, they don't need to be reflection of the same thing, but they need to be reflect part of the same narrative. They all need to like Marvel Cinematic Universe, it's all part of the same brand universe. They need to be recognizable as one under one umbrella brand. You can't do something completely random.
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B
Yeah, yeah.
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A
At the same time, the more different communities and different contexts a brand reaches, the better it is. And that leads me to that future of culture as a series of different contexts that the brand needs to think how to participate in.
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B
Yeah.
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A
Lifestyle context, sports context, travel, furniture. Like that, like that. Cross category presence. When brands are consumed together with everything else in culture, with film, with, with poetry, with literature, with art, with photography, you need to have a point of view and taste in all those different areas. And that's why I think that fashion is losing its cultural luster. But enter collaborations with furniture, with automotive, with travel, with hospitality, with music, with Sports with other things.
- [14:25]
B
So along the same line of thought, this idea of boring is a new cool. One is more of a cultural aspect of it and then the other one is more of an operational thing. And what I mean by that is companies, brands and individuals that focus on boring but routine things will at the end win.
- [14:53]
A
I think that boring always wins. It's a revenge of the boring. And like I'll tell you, go finish your thought.
- [15:00]
B
But yeah, so let me. So I was talking to a friend of mine who about three years ago went from a big fashion company to a relatively small boutique apparel brand. And in three years he tripled it was, it's a small brand, you know, they only make, I don't know, 10, $20 million worth of revenue. And then in three, four years they went from, you know, 10, 20 million to, I think like 75 million. So granted that it was a small brand, so there was a lot of room to grow, but still to grow three, four times in a short amount of time, he must have done something right. And when I asked him, most of the things that he did at least to begin with were like back office, operational thing, so making sure that the supply chain is functioning correctly so that when there's a demand for production that they can ship that product to the customers quickly. Another thing that he did was before it was a seasonal product planning. So like every season he would have, you know, he, the, the, the, the team would merchandising, the product team would, would plan a collection of products. But what he did was while keeping that, he decided to drop a few products on a weekly basis. So every Saturday the company would send out a newsletter and hey, here, here are the three highlighted products of this week. So instead of doing say 20 products per season, he would do two or three products per week and then just drop it on a regular basis. Again, not a huge rocket science change, but simple, almost boring things, but doing in a consistent routine kind of way and without doing anything fancy. There was no big campaign, there was no big press conference, there was no big reveal of some source, but things that people didn't really pay attention to, particularly customers didn't really care about, but made a real difference in terms of how they operated as a business, I. E. Boring, fundamental stuff. And in three years he managed to grow three, four times. So what I mean by boring is a new core. To your point, what the revenge of boring is something that I think has been happening in the past, you know, five to, even if not 10 years or so.
- [17:31]
A
I definitely agree with that because what quiet fashion is, you know, like quite luxury, you know. So I do think I do want. Because in addition to having strategy is replaced by creative production which is. Has very serious implications for marketing departments of brands overall. Creative departments of brand design departments, merchandising. My second thing is that creativity is an approach, not an output, which means that everyone needs to be creative. And like, I don't mean literally creative like having a financial controller like, you know, cook, cook the numbers. But I do mean. I'll give you an example. So at Banana, Banana Republic, when we did, when we launched the vintage shop in June, I know several months after I joined and we were like, hey, it's going to be on the website, it's going to be on fifth Avenue flagship shopping shop. There are going to be props and so on. Do you know how actually that happened? It's easy for CMO or CEO to swoop in and take all the credit, but everyone has ideas. Actually happening is thanks to a guy named Kurt and woman named Paige who were in production, who were, who figured out how are they going to store in warehouses.
- [18:49]
B
Right, right, right, right.
- [18:50]
A
The vintage that was sourced by a vendor who authenticates, cleans it all. But it needs to live somewhere. You need to ship it from somewhere, it needs to be packaged some and if it's not in the system, you can't do it. So they figured out how to make it part of the established system and they were the ones who had this attitude will figure it out who were creative in figuring that out and who actually made it happen.
- [19:19]
B
Yeah, yeah.
- [19:20]
A
In, you know, in a. Like too often I feel that CMOs actually take. Take all the credit. But it's not them. It's actually the boring under, you know, quotation marks part that make that they're the backbone of the business at this. It was the great merchandising team who assigned skills to vintage items, to collaboration items, to our merch and allowed it to be part of the system to be actually sold. And I don't think that, you know, like, like when things go right, creative directors take old credit and don't go right then. So now just take all the blame. It's, you know, so I just want to kind of say that I literally realized as a marketer, as someone who actually championed that idea, it was not our team at all. Yeah, yeah, like we made it look, look pretty, we styled it, we ensured the entire experience and promotion and all of that and press and so on. But it's like Paige and Kurt who made it Happen.
- [20:23]
B
Right, Right. Well, so revenge of boring. Boring is a new call. All right, so that's theme number one. Right. Do you have another theme or topic?
- [20:34]
A
That one is that there is no futures. There are futures. And that's why instead of strategy that relies on predictability and very firm scenario, singular, there are futures and there is scenario planning where you need to set yourself not to predict in the future, but actually responding quickly to whatever happens which brings to that cultural stack which we can impact later. And second, that create. Everyone needs to be creative in organizations. Creativity is too important for business to sit in a creative and marketing department.
- [21:09]
B
Yeah, yeah. Okay. The second theme that I've been thinking about, and I want to kind of pick your brain on this one to make it a bit more clear this time.
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A
Again, my account number is coming your way.
- [21:25]
B
Yeah, sure, sure, sure, sure. I think. Well, and I'm kind of thinking out loud as I speak, but I kind of think that the definition of brand is morphing. And let me unpack this a little bit. So somebody like Scott Galloway has been talking about the end of the brand era. I think a couple years ago in a book that he wrote, he said, oh, it's the beginning. You know, now we are in the product era and the brand era is ending. And the way he defines the brand era is quite narrow in that, oh, the brands were created based on marketing and advertising. You have a quote, unquote mediocre product. You tell a fantastic story around it, and that's how a brand is built. And. And I don't. That era is long gone. I agree. However, having said that, I don't think that we are seeing. I think we are seeing the end of a brand that's being built through marketing and advertising has ended a few years, several years ago, but I think brands are still an important asset. A brand is an important asset for a company to have. And. But I think the shape and the feel of what a brand is today has fundamentally changed from what a brand used to be in a singular sense. So in a singular sense, in the past, a BMW was a car brand that people lusted after, or Elms is a fashion brand. But now, and this kind of refers back to my first point about boring is the new core. I may not think about, say, Amazon or ChatGPT as a brand, but it's a type of utility that I rely on on a regular basis. And therefore it has meaning to me as an individual, as a user, it may not give me identity per, you know, one of the conversations that We've had a couple weeks ago. But it gives me really, really valuable utility and functionality and therefore it is a meaningful quote unquote brand in my life. Right. So I don't think is it a.
- [23:52]
A
Meaningful brand or is it a meaningful product?
- [23:55]
B
Well, so that's an interesting point because, because say OpenAI and specifically a meaningful product from OpenAI, ChatGPT has an enormous presence and an enormous market share right now. But the utility of ChatGPT isn't drastically different from the utility or the functionality of say Claude.
- [24:24]
A
So where is then competitive advantage? Where is the customer lock in?
- [24:30]
B
Well, in the case of, just to talk about ChatGPT as a utility brand and the utility brand that has managed to capture so many people's imagination and has now become, I would argue at least part of people's psyche, right. Is that they were the first one. ChatGPT was the first prompt based, AI driven tool through its user interface with this live text dialogue that captured people's imagination very quickly and it spread like wifi. And I mean ChatGPT as a tool had existed before October, November 2022, but it was that, that time, the first thing, the first time that the chat interface and then like live text animation, that little gimmick interface, gimmick I think made it visible for people to feel, oh, I'm quote unquote talking to a computer and then the computer is talking back to me. And OpenAI ChatGPT I think was the first interface that gave the world the visibility to computers thinking. And then that became, that became the cultural innovation.
- [25:55]
A
And you and I talked a lot about it. That product LED branding, how all, yes, the best brands came from actually super objectively superior products. Objectively means Levi's 501s, they have those metallurgy. Volts was the name on the pockets. So to prevent tearing and, or, or, or Doc Martens, he like he had the broken foot, the founder and he needed the cushioning that they became. So it's kind of, in a sense that's a. And I think that superior product innovation allows a brand to be spun out of it. Like thanks to quality and recognition and wearability of 501s, Levi's started making dawn jackets. Like they have puffers. I'm like, why do you have puffers? You know, that's a different conversation. But you know what I mean? You then, then when you have chatgpt, it's not crazy to think that in the future they're gonna create like a car or a restaurant or anything really, you know, like A fashion line because you're going to associate it with something. That's when you have a brand.
- [27:03]
B
Yeah, but. But I guess that's the. That's my argument though. Does it need to have that in order to be.
- [27:10]
A
Absolutely not. But I'm saying you do need to have like. I just don't. Brands are basically like creating customer walking stop. Other ways of creating customer lock in is like having network effects which is how social networks grew. Facebook, you know, X every you're there because everyone else is there. It's more useful to be there when you have a tweet that you have that has audience, you know. So in a sense that's one way. So in different industries you create those competitive like protections in a different way. So my question for you is if all other conditions are the same, then the brand is what differentiates it? Like CPG is based on brands later on. The entire CPG category is. Is it proctor or gambler? Craft is like it's literally advertising that made you pick up Kellogg versus something else.
- [28:08]
B
Yeah, yeah. But what's interesting, what I find interesting about a product like ChatGPT gaining this much awareness and traction and staying there for. I mean it's been only two years, so time will tell in the next five years if it will remain the kind of dominance that it has. But from a.
- [28:34]
A
You already have proximity, you have Claude, you have like the market is fragmented. There is no clear winner still.
- [28:42]
B
No, But I mean OpenAI chat GPT in terms of the. The market dominance and what it's doing is way ahead of the.
- [28:49]
A
I think it's too soon to tell Ray.
- [28:51]
B
It's been, you know, I don't disagree. I don't disagree. Yeah. I don't disagree that it's too soon to tell. But if they are able to maintain this kind of trajectory then it's not really branding in a traditional sense that that's driving the.
- [29:11]
A
I don't know if it's not. I'll tell you why.
- [29:13]
B
Really? Okay.
- [29:14]
A
Because. No, no, no. I think like, like you want to kind of prevent switching costs in any event. And you know when you say all the brand is an emotion that's associated with an animated object. I think that little UX improvement was emotional human component that is a brand because in any. It can.
- [29:35]
B
Okay.
- [29:35]
A
It is like brands always appeal to your right brain, not to your left brain would be insanely boring. Sure if it was just facts. But Duolingo. Oh, you are getting. You know, it's sarcastic right brain or chat GPT UX is unbelievably user friendly. Right. Brain.
- [29:57]
B
Oh, I see, I see, I see. Yeah. But don't you think that, I mean.
- [30:01]
A
You matter of design, I mean you know that you as a designer you create.
- [30:05]
B
I do, I do, yeah, yeah.
- [30:06]
A
That are human centered design that people respond well to like you know, like that old, like 30 years old example or 20 years old example of a woman who created different packages for meds for Target Pharmacy. Do you know what I'm talking about? Like she was some design student and I don't remember the details but she made it so much like it was more like round. Which brings me actually to Hailey Bieber's road cover for a phone. And when I was in Europe the woman was saying it's all curves and it's so like I feel so emotionally good when I hold, when I'm holding. It's like literally the ergonomy, like back when they innovated their place, the purple light. That's all branding. We just you know, like think about it that way.
- [30:57]
B
Yeah. I, I would argue and this, you know, you may, you, you and I may have a slightly different point but I think like the US improvement I don't think was seen as part of traditional branding. Like it's not an emotional.
- [31:13]
A
Yeah but I always thought that, that, that literally UX is that. I mean my dissertation was about how experience design actually is branding. Because like look, when you go to Ikea, the way your, your experience IKEA as a brand, it's literally designed.
- [31:30]
B
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
- [31:31]
A
Like hospitality, restaurants, hotels, like it's, it's, it's just that it's very. Again it's not, again it's like very different approach because I was, I based it on design thinking and experience design that is basically very different from branding as communication through mass media.
- [31:53]
B
Yeah. So I guess a different way of saying it is we have now completed the cycle of story led branding and then. Yeah. And we are now fully into the era of product led branding which is a topic that we've been talking about.
- [32:12]
A
You can say that. But you see like I look at it a little differently because for me. No, no, no. Narrative is always going to be important is how do you convey that story. And that's why I say if you start how do you productize emotion that is a brand? So you productize it literally through brands, products, but you also productize it through fandom, collaborations, merch, archive reissues, experiences, exhibitions, all of that. It's a way to productize emotion. So you're still telling a Story or just telling a story in a known in 3D, you're telling a story to products.
- [32:51]
B
Do you. In, in that case though, Dan, what do you think is the story that ChatGPT or OpenAI is telling?
- [32:57]
A
I think it's. I think it's a story of artificial intelligence, you know, and how we interact with. How do we separate ourselves from intelligence and how that's like maybe that post species or something, how we are not like our intelligence is not what makes us human, it's actually our emotions and our creativity. And that intelligence is much, much wider and exists outside of humans.
- [33:27]
B
Right.
- [33:27]
A
Whereas before. And honestly, I blame enlightenment for everything. Efficiency in production, for nuclear families, for like, you know, how everything was before, very communal and very craft and very, you know, like the reason that the planet is dying, that we are like so individualistic. It's enlightenment. And that's another thing. Enlightenment is that intelligence is what, like rational thinking that, you know, it's like rational thinking is what makes human. And that's like the Taylorism, the efficient production. We still are suffering from that blueprint of efficiency. What is for you, ChatGPT as a brand?
- [34:11]
B
What is ChatGPT as a brand or OpenAI as a brand?
- [34:14]
A
If for me it's plugging in into that universal intelligence, what is it for you?
- [34:21]
B
I think there's an aspect of that, but the way that I look at a brand like ChatGPT or OpenAI, I think there are two layers. One is sort of this intellectual layer. What is artificial intelligence going to enable us humans to achieve? That's like a high level eight, three words.
- [34:43]
A
If you can't describe a brand in three words, it's not a good brand.
- [34:46]
B
I think it's. It's convenience. It's convenience. It's convenience, yeah. Like before you had to go to.
- [34:53]
A
I like that a lot. Yes, yes. Yeah, I like it. You know, like, see? And that is the brand that made it more convenient to access these masses. That intelligence that is way beyond.
- [35:03]
B
I think like Google as a brand, it was the. The word that defines Google is search.
- [35:08]
A
Correct.
- [35:08]
B
Like search is synonymous. Google is synonymous with search.
- [35:12]
A
Yes. So ChatGPT is okay, yeah.
- [35:15]
B
I think ChatGPT right now the interface is the chat, but really it's an easier, more convenient access information. So convenience.
- [35:23]
A
Loved it.
- [35:24]
B
Yeah. Like Amazon is convenience in commerce. Right. ChatGPT or OpenAI right now is convenience in language learning.
- [35:33]
A
Like, you know what I mean? It's like, I would say like, maybe we should rename boring brands into convenient brands. And I don't disagree with that. But then I would ask you, is there such a thing as too convenient?
- [35:44]
B
Possibly, Possibly. And convenience is not always good.
- [35:48]
A
No, it's not. You need some sort of creative friction in order to like, if it's so cool. Everything is super convenient these days. So maybe that makes us less creative. Maybe that makes us more creative. We're going to see in 2025.
- [36:01]
B
Yeah. Okay.
- [36:02]
A
Okay. More specific things. Do you want me to go? Because I, I have specific two specific things and I've been like harping on this for like years now. Four years. It is that like niche tastes, niche communities. I read in this weekend's Financial Times that how ultra high net worth individuals are moving towards furniture. I think that's been happening for a while now. But what actually that article helped me discover is like, I keep forgetting the name. It's called period. Correct. Which is intersection of like fashion, vintage cars. So you have merch with vintage cars and with vintage car iconography and vintage car references. Who is it for? For a very, very, very narrow group of people that, and I think that that aesthetic niches, the taste niches is basically what are trends now. Because when you see on TikTok like dark academia, the, the, the eclectic grandpa coastal Grandma Brad, Summer, demure, you know, these are all those aesthetic that don't last long on a, on a, on a mass scale. But they, they have their passionate people. So I do think that is what we have. Like you know how people were like, oh, subculture is that. Yes, only if you think that there is a culture that has a center which is mainstream and then subculture as reaction. But when you think culture as a network, as a collection of those niches, there is a gazillion of subcultures.
- [37:34]
B
I mean I would say subcultures are the culture now. Like it's a collection of subcultures.
- [37:40]
A
Thousand percent, 1,000%. So that is my number one. And then if you want to go and I have one more.
- [37:46]
B
This is more of a continuation of what we've been seeing in the past couple years. And in 2024 particularly we saw multiple legacy brands fall. So like Nike was a very visible fall of what used to be this, you know, premium iconic brand. And I think they still have quite a scale and quite a lead. So I don't think Nike will disappear or fall as far as it, it may have. But like Nike and outside of fashion or apparel, like intel is an interesting one because five, 10 years ago it used to be in, in every computer and they somehow missed that boat of the chip war. And you know, now Nvidia is the most valuable company in the, in the world. So the, the, the pattern that I, that I wanna, that I'm talking about here is these legacy scale brand brands in multiple industries. Whether Nike in the apparel industry or intel in the technology industry or like you know, IPG getting bought by Omnicom, that was one of the legacy big brands is getting sucked into another company. So I think that overall Megatrend will continue in 2025. And I was thinking, but wait, what is that?
- [39:19]
A
Megatrend is like the scale is suffering, the business model is suffering. Like what is the.
- [39:25]
B
I think, I think there are multiple, I think there are multiple narratives going on. Right. Yeah. So just to end the two things. One is the tech, the, the force of technology is one, one thing. Right. And then the other thing is the balance between like what you just talked about, mass culture versus subculture and brands like Nike. Another one that I was thinking about was Burberry. Right. I think they mismanaged the balance between mass culture and subculture. And in loss I think they're like.
- [40:00]
A
I mean like if you zoom out, I think overall when you see the entire luxury industry also I just think that we are kind of learning about the limits of scale just in life, like in, in business. And basically what like there is no unit economics. Why do luxury brands need to be a multi billion dollar brands? Like normally you can't produce that craftsmanship and that high end quality at scale unless you infuse a lot of money. And then you grow, but you grow officially open new stores and you know, everything becomes sort of mess. And I do agree with you that it's a tension between. I think that is kind of the, that, that, that Taylor is. And that growth, that production grows to producing more. If your people are not buying, you produce more, more, more, more more. You open more stores, you go to more markets, you get more people to buy more stuff.
- [40:59]
B
Yeah, yeah.
- [41:00]
A
I think that model is crumbling on environmentally, socially, culturally and above all economically.
- [41:08]
B
Yeah, yeah.
- [41:09]
A
So I think you just can't keep.
- [41:10]
B
You can't, you can't keep up. You can't keep up the scale.
- [41:13]
A
That is. Why is growth? Why scale good? Why is big good and small bad? Yeah, it's not even growth. Let's forget, let me take that out because I don't want to get into degrowth and stuff.
- [41:24]
B
Yeah.
- [41:25]
A
But I just want to say we learned that big is good, small is bad.
- [41:29]
B
Yeah.
- [41:30]
A
And basically like artisanship, craftsmanship, like local production, small business, Ownership. No one is small business owner. Everyone is entrepreneur. I mean look where they got us. Like with evaluations for glossier. That is a unicorn. Come on. You know what I mean? At the end of the day in order to be big you need to have big distribution and so on. So I think that like we're going to have a lot of conversations in not next year but in the upcoming.
- [41:58]
B
Yeah. In the next five years. Yeah.
- [42:01]
A
About how do you still. What is the right size?
- [42:05]
B
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
- [42:06]
A
So I think Right. Sizing is definitely.
- [42:08]
B
That's an interesting topic. Okay. All right. Just to wrap up maybe like one or two more. Do you have.
- [42:14]
A
I have only one more. So let's do one me one. You feel okay?
- [42:17]
B
Sounds good. Yeah.
- [42:17]
A
Great.
- [42:18]
B
Yeah.
- [42:18]
A
I have a return of the middle and I was primarily thinking about fashion and lifestyle beauty industry industries.
- [42:25]
B
Yeah.
- [42:25]
A
And because again biggest good is like fast fashion, mass apparel brands, retail brands and then luxury brands. They have oversized marketing budgets. And those brands in the middle. When you think about what is actually what are the two by two of.
- [42:43]
B
Yeah.
- [42:43]
A
Carol is like is something desirable and is something discoverable. So their discoverability of middle size mid sized brand has been a problem. You know how DTC brands grew and I say brands very provisionally because they were basically like I don't know product with a. With a production facility wrapped around it. It's. It's basically they were able to grow because they have insane amount of of money VC money that they spent on meta basically performance marketing to acquire. So when you think about brands mid sized brands like a Nin Bing or Cezanne or Me and M or I don' like Mar Sandra like those in that are. That are in the middle. I think that thanks to curators on Tik Tok on fashion substack who entire business is to sift through the Internet and find deals and find bubble up what they deem noteworthy brands that a lot of people don't know. All of a sudden that has become a right economic moment when people are like wait why am I paying $10,000 for this bag, luxury bag when I can get something that's like unique and not a lot of people have it and has like this story like Doan for example. They grew unbelievably this California brand. So I think number one is the rise of fashion substack and a lot like TikTok Instagram curation not influencers curious for making money on affiliate but who are actually experts in fashion market.
- [44:19]
B
Yeah.
- [44:20]
A
The second is thanks to AI. Thanks to Chichat GPT Proximity shopping. Literally go and be like, hey, give me like a white sweater, cashmere in small. Give me more, give me more, give me more. So until the same thing happens that what Google did, which is started charging everyone to be featured in the results at the moment. That is an engine of discoverability.
- [44:45]
B
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
- [44:47]
A
Which kind of brings back companies of all sizes in between mass.
- [44:52]
B
Yeah, I, I think like in the next couple years the paradigm of shopping, and particularly online shopping will change fairly significantly. Like I think we've had for the past two decades shopping that was based on search. And that in the next five, even 10 years that's going to slowly morph into what you said, proximity shopping.
- [45:18]
A
And yeah, it's not recommendations. It can be all sorts of curated recommendations. It can be AI recommendation, it can be human, it can be taste maker, it can be your friends. But I think that like social media changed that landscape where I think that like Instagram is too long gone, it's paid to play. But look at the other platforms that are not yet paid to play and they are for a minute going to allow like substack, like maybe TikTok because it's algorithmic, you know, so. And then AI for a minute before they figure out how to monetize it.
- [45:56]
B
Right, right, right. Cool. All right, My last one, this is a very tiny one, but it kind of goes back to my first point. Boring is a new call. I think there will be two types of technologies that will break out and break through in 2025. And again, very like very small example, but I'm actually kind of excited about this one is cordless kitchen gadgets. So like, you know, hot pot or juice mixers or toasters. I mean the kitchen is a. Has been a mess for the past five decades with like all these cores. And finally, Finally, I think 2025 will be the beginning of these gadgets without cores. So that you don't have this messy counter. I think.
- [46:45]
A
Sorry for a message from our sponsor. Do we have whoever that might be? Because this sounds like.
- [46:51]
B
Yeah, you are about.
- [46:53]
A
You got purist on us right now.
- [46:55]
B
Okay, okay. Another one, another one. I think 2025, we will also see AR glasses become big.
- [47:04]
A
Oh man. I don't know.
- [47:06]
B
I think so.
- [47:07]
A
I don't know.
- [47:08]
B
I think like it's taking quite a while. Right. But like the, you know, the, the meta Raven sunglasses, people who use them, they, they seem quite happy with those.
- [47:20]
A
People also pick their noses at an extension.
- [47:22]
B
They do. I didn't say that. I don't know. If they do because I like I have some, you know, friends that I trust. I, I think, I think in 2025 and I may be grocery grossly miscalculating this but like you know, like when Apple Watch came on market on the market, you know, five, seven years ago, it took a while for it to gain traction. It took a while but now it's.
- [47:45]
A
A pretty scenario was very it amplified all of the existing behavior. So I like for AR glasses I'm.
- [47:53]
B
Not sure I'm going to just say on the record I might be wrong.
- [47:56]
A
But I'm going to just okay, let's revisit that in December of 2025.
- [48:04]
B
We should, we should, we should, we should. This would be a fun one to return.
- [48:09]
A
Okay. Happy New Year everyone and a wonderful holiday season and I hope you wrong predictions for yourself in 25 come true.
- [48:17]
B
All right, see you in 2025.