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- [00:00]
A
On one end, I'm super impressed by the capabilities of LLMs and the ability to recognize spoken languages. But on the other hand, at the same time, what seems so basic is still month, maybe a year or two years away when everything else seems so sophisticated. Welcome to Culture and Code, a podcast about the biggest shifts in culture and tech. I'm Rain am a creative entrepreneur and founding partner of Iamco, a global innovation firm based in New York, Tokyo and Singapore.
- [00:39]
B
And I'm Tara Tan, managing partner of Strange Ventures, an investment firm focused on the future of computing.
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A
So, Tara, how was your weekend? Long weekend.
- [00:47]
B
Good. We went to Big Sur. That was really nice. Yeah, we did. Have you been?
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A
I have been. I used to live on the west coast in San Francisco, so Big Sur definitely brings back good memories.
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B
Yeah, it was magical. We brought our kids, our, you know, three year old and four year old, and they had a blast. It was like the river, the ocean. Yeah, it was amazing.
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A
So is the Labor Day weekend considered the last weekend of summer in. In California?
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B
I guess so. I feel like it. Or I feel like we, you know, because the weather is so cold in the summer in San Francisco, it really gets warmer September, early October. So it feels like we're entering summer now, but school's in season. But that's the surprising thing about living in such a temperate place. The weather's kind of consistent all the time. So we don't really have seasons.
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A
I know.
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B
So it's more like we're constantly in flow.
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A
I lived in San Francisco for five years and I kept waiting for summer to arrive and I waited five years and he never came. So I moved back to New York.
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B
There's like two weeks of like hot summer. Yes.
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A
Yeah. Like in October, Right?
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B
Yeah. And usually by then I'm, you know, that's enough for me.
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A
Yeah. No, but I do, I did appreciate the lack of humidity on the west Coast.
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B
New York, summer are brutal. If you don't have ac, it's brutal.
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A
Yeah. But I mean, I was in Japan this summer and that was way more brutal than New York.
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B
Oh my goodness.
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A
I mean, New York felt like a breeze. Quite literally a breeze.
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B
Wow.
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A
So, yes. So the Labor Day weekend is over. My kids are not quite. Well, one of them is back in school, the other one is still at home. So a couple more days. Couple more days and he were back in school. So the summer is over. So the first episode of the fall and this is going to be our third episode. The topic that we are going to talk about is intelligence as Os and This is based on your newsletter that you wrote maybe about a week or so ago when Pixel announced an upgrade, particularly with Gemini and other AI features. So why don't you start by talking about what was announced a week or so ago, and then we'll dive into this idea of intelligence as os.
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B
Yeah. Fun story. So, you know, to start, I'm actually going to take a detour, if that's okay.
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A
Okay. Yeah.
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B
So one of the worst predictions in business history.
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A
Okay.
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B
Came in the 1980s.
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A
Okay.
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B
When AT&T paid McKinsey probably millions of dollars to figure out how big the mobile market was. So they went off, they did this thing. Yeah. Around the 1980s. Around. There it is.
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A
Okay. Yeah.
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B
So they went out, did their whole consulting thing, came back and told AT&T readers, it's not worth pursuing. It's not a strategy worth pursuing. Mobile is going to be capped at maximum, 900,000 subscribers globally.
- [03:51]
A
900,000. Okay.
- [03:52]
B
Don't waste your time. You know, the phones were clunky. It's too heavy. No one's going to use it. People don't like walking around with their phones. Don't do it. So one of the sort of probably worst business predictions in history came from them in that era. It probably cost at and T $12 billion to get over.
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A
Oh, wow. Wow.
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B
Yes.
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A
How long. Do you happen to know how long it took for ADNT to realize that?
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B
It was five years. Yeah. But five years after that disastrous report, they realized that they were totally wrong. So they ended up going on a buying spree and buying other little startups that started going after this strategy of, you know, sprouting up cellular networks basically for mobile. So it took them about five years before they realized, oh, they, they were disaster. Disastrously wrong. And so went after the other strategy. But I wanted to say that because, you know, predictions are interesting because they can go absolutely right or absolutely wrong, and absolutely wrong can actually be very costly.
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A
Very costly. Right, right. Billions of dollars in this case. But it sounds like AT has caught up and has been able to gain enough market share to be at least one of the leading mobile network providers in the U.S. yeah.
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B
But they shouldn't have had any competition at the start. Yeah, biggest by far, but.
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A
Yes.
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B
Anyway, a fun, fun story about chasing, you know, chasing down wrong, you know, sort of the wrong path or wrong streets or wrong roads.
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A
Yeah.
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B
And, you know, the, the takeaway I did when I was researching this piece is it's easy to get it wrong. It's easy to get it wrong. And the thing with Data is that it is a past pattern predictor and not the future. It predicts the past well, but not the future.
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A
Yeah.
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B
We went back when I was studying this piece and I saw that Google released its new sort of pixel update recently, and it had these magic cue, which is its flagship AI feature. And so they started embedding Gemini into their phones and kind of highlighting these features where it would like, pluck out data or contextual data from across your apps. So say if you were on a text message with a friend and talking about, oh, hey, what were we talking about? Dinner this weekend, it could pull in that email, you could start setting a calendar invite and all of that. So. So that was really interesting. And then, you know, you could do fun stuff like do live translation over the phone. So if you were talking to a friend in Japan, it would do a live translation there. So we should do the next call in Japanese and English and see if we work.
- [06:29]
A
I can speak in Japanese. And if you can, if you can decipher what the heck I'm talking about.
- [06:34]
B
That's right. That'd be super cool. But yeah, that made me realize that what was interesting and emerging from this piece was that, you know, this sort of Gemini layer was actually creating the interface and the experience and what I call the os, where it matters less about what's under the hood, but what the sort of AI layer can sort of surface to the front. And so I made a prediction where I was like, okay, look, if, you know, I think Apple has by far the largest hardware market share for phones, but what if, you know, people, you know, but a lot of Apple users use Google products, so like Gmail, Google Calendar, Google Maps and so on. And so, you know, it made me realize that if the future of UI or digital experience is on the intelligence layer, wouldn't places like Apple start using that, using Gemini to basically orchestrate the layer below?
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A
Yeah.
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B
And shortly after I published this piece, like a few hours later, it broke that Apple is exploring to use Gemini to power Siri. And a couple of days later after that, I think Meta as well is.
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A
Not Meta is using Gemini while they're exploring.
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B
Nothing's confirmed. Exploring, using Gemini to basically cut across their different apps and tools, basically as that unifying interface or os, which is super interesting. But it made me realize that the future of the interface, it's really intelligent.
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A
So let's double click into that a bit more. When you say intelligence, that's a pretty big word and pretty broad term Room, what do you mean by it exactly?
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B
Yeah, I do really just mean like the AI layer. So right now it's more of an LLM, like could become, you know, more reasoning based, an LLM that basically orchestrates. Orchestrate. Orchestrates or sits across sort of the different apps.
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A
Different apps, yes. Yeah.
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B
So what's interesting is that the intelligence or the AI layer is able to decipher the user's intention and then surface the information that's relevant to them.
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A
Right, right, yeah. Because what's on, say, just to talk about iPhone or the iOS, that intelligence is not very intelligent as of this moment. Yeah, yeah. Whether it's Siri and it's voice recognition or I'm flabbergasted. So, for instance, like every time I walk into my office, I have a digital key that I am supposed to tap to unlock the key to walk in, and it knows I'm at the building, my phone knows I'm at the building. And roughly speaking, I walk in within the 15 to 30 minute window on a weekday to walk through the locked door of my office. And every time I have to still open the key app to get into the office, tap the key and then unlock and walk in. And I'm just like begging the iOS to know, hey, at least surface the app.
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B
Right.
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A
So that when I'm at that location, there's a pretty high possibility that I'm about to enter the office. And what seems so. And you know, I'm just pointing out a very tactical, small example that may be very difficult for a big company like Apple with billions of users to know, hey, out of billion users, what percentage of those people might have that use case? You know, that might be very minute. But what seems like a very simple thing for a human to do, to just open a, unlock a door, seems still so difficult for a machine, a piece of software to do is just on one end. I'm super impressed by the capabilities of LLMs and the ability to recognize spoken languages. But on the other hand, at the same time, what seems so basic is still month, maybe a year or two years away when everything else seems so sophisticated. And yeah, to your point, that intelligence across multiple apps and multiple use cases, if there was that intelligence layer, that would make at least that friction less painful.
- [11:16]
B
Yeah, I mean, technically it's not hard to do. You can do it, right? I mean, whoever that maker is, can make it happen. It's just, you know, not a priority. But, you know, kind of going up one level to the broader point, which is like, you know, Apple's entire, you know, sort of iOS app store ecosystem assumes that we will always want more apps. Right. There's always going to be more apps for different niches. I mean, how many apps do you have on your phone right now?
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A
Oh, dozens and dozens.
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B
Yeah, dozens, maybe even hundreds over the last, what, 10 years. I think I got my first phone, probably the iPhone 4. I want to say I'm now like 15ish, 16. So it's like 10 generations of a phone. I probably downloaded maybe a thousand apps more. Right. I mean, the entire privacy is built on top of this ecosystem. But. But what happens when intelligence becomes the OS and you don't need the app store anymore?
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A
Right, right, right.
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B
You know. Right. And it's like that becomes really interesting. And so in my piece, I started looking at, funnily enough, when BlackBerry and Apple were going head to head at the same time.
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A
So this is what, like 2005 ish?
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B
Something around that. Yeah, like, like BlackBerry was the. Was it two? Yeah. What was it? Also, I'll look at that piece. But it's like BlackBerry watched Steve Jobs unveil the phone. At that time they had, I want to say, 20% or close to 20% market share.
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A
Right.
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B
Of the sort of US smartphone market share. So, you know, do you remember the time where everyone was on their little BlackBerry and like typing.
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A
Yeah. So you say in that BlackBerry fell from 56% of the US smartphone market in 2019 to 1% in 2024.
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B
That's right.
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A
And basically, maybe this is not, you say 2019, but maybe this is 20 2009.
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B
Oh, yeah, it might be.
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A
Sorry, I might be 2019.
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B
29. Yeah, 2009. It's got to be 2000. 2000 to 2014. Sorry. Yes, yes, my bad. Yeah, we got a typo there. But yeah, I do think that, you know, so that was an interesting point. There's a typo there. So it's like 2009 to 2014, basically, in that five years, they, I mean, they basically lost, not just market leave, but they were almost completely out of the game. And the reason for that was they were chasing off the wrong strategy. So they had such a loyal following. You know, I remember my friends, you know, who were just obsessed with their BlackBerry. They were constantly using it.
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A
They, you know, or they were called Crackberries.
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B
The Crackberries, Right, exactly.
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A
Crackberries. Yeah.
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B
BlackBerry was so obsessed with this vision. They did everything right. They listened to their users, they heard them that they liked secure email, they liked the tactile keyboard. And so when iPhone came out, they were like, this is a toy. No one's going to use this. This is just for fun. You know, the most popular iPhone app at that time was a beer drinking app. You tipped it in the beer drink.
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A
Oh, man.
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B
They were like, this is a toy.
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A
I do remember that.
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B
I remember this. Yeah.
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A
Yes.
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B
And within two years, or within the first two years, they looked like they were right because iPhone, BlackBerry sales actually doubled in the two years because they had such a foothold on the enterprise after the iPhone came out. But after two years, very quickly it tanked because very quickly consumers realized that they loved this touchscreen app ecosystem moment and that completely annihilated the demand for blackberries. So my question here is, I pose, are we in another turning point where if Apple or other players are pursuing this idea of an app store, what happens if that's not what users want anymore? What if you don't want to download a million apps all the time?
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A
It's very possible because having to think in terms of apps, well before apps on phones, they were applications on desktops. And, you know, you needed to switch from this app to another app and you had to think about like the compatibility of files and platforms. So you had to shift your way of thinking from like, you know, if you were on a desktop, yeah, you have pens and paper, what have you, but you're still sort of working in one environment and you don't really have to think about the context changing. Whereas when you're in the digital space, whether it's desktop or mobile space, you are having to switch context all the time. So a feature like MagicQ, which is the new, you know, this is the gist of your newsletter a week or so ago. And it's the new intelligence layer that eliminates the user to be continually switching context from one app to the next. And instead I as a user can just focus on a particular task or particular goal that I'm trying to accomplish and then what apps that I have to use to. To get that goal accomplished could be. Could become invisible.
- [16:36]
B
Yeah, yeah, absolutely it could be. I mean, it is a prediction. Who knows where the future is headed? But, you know, I think it is always worth questioning, you know, what is status quo? Is this still going to be the future? Right. So, yeah, I think there's an assumption here that whatever OS that we're using now, whatever that, you know, sort of medium that we're looking at today is going to be status quo. And my guess is that it may not. Very quickly.
- [17:07]
A
Yeah. Just to counter argue that. I wonder too, whether. So, for instance, like Apple was and Maybe still is. Google is still paying billions of dollars to Apple to be the default search engine on Apple devices. Like in Safari. Right? Yeah. So they are buying their way into the Apple ecosystem and you know, yeah, people might be using Safari instead of Chrome and then within Safari the search capability is coming from Google. So Google is somewhat invisible. But in this case they could potentially buy their way into being the topmost layer. So that even though what the device that the user is using is an Apple device, the layer, the first thing that they encounter instead of Siri might be a Google Gemini or Magic Q feature. Yeah. I wonder if the user would care or not, to be honest. Yeah. For them it might not be a deal breaker or. Or differentiator.
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B
Yeah. I mean I feel like for Apple they've always demonstrated that the LLM is a plugin. So whether it's OpenAI or Gemini, I think they're. Or even anthropic, it feels like, you know, for them it's kind of a plug and play moment. I think what will be interesting is how Apple preserves the experience or the user experience if they're shifting between the different models or integrating between them or something. Or how would they preserve this experience. Right. Of using a phone and still making this the best experience there is.
- [19:04]
A
Yeah.
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B
Or consistent experience there. So that's the question there.
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A
Did this news make. So you use an iPhone, you said.
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B
Iphone 15 or what? Yeah, yeah.
- [19:13]
A
But did this news make you want to switch potentially to.
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B
I consider. I don't think it's mature enough yet. I still do enjoy the experience of the iPhone right now. The interface and all the little micro interactions, I am starting to feel. And I think Android users, especially if you talk to them, they're quite, they're quite active champions right now where the phone is better and now if the AI capabilities are better that you know, they're going to have more talking points there. But I know the camera is a big sticking point already on Android versus Apple, interestingly enough, because Apple used to have the best camera, but now it's.
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A
Not that they can't quite claim that. Right.
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B
And even. Yeah. And it's pretty clear like my friends and family who use Android, they're like, oh yeah, the Android camera is way better and they have like baked in AI features already way before Apple had it.
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A
Yeah. And even I think in the same announcement, didn't they make the camera feature so that you can zoom like a hundred times and he uses generative AI to fill in the gap of pixels so that when you zoom in it becomes crisp even though the photo itself didn't necessarily capture the details, but it's guessing and it makes it look crisp when you zoom in a hundred times.
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B
That's right.
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A
Yeah. So things like that. But I guess, and this becomes slightly a branding question, but I think one of the small but effective thing that Apple has done is the blue bubble. Yeah, blue bubble versus the green bubble. Yeah, yeah. And like, I. Because I work in the mobile network space for many years and I used to switch between phones just to make sure that I was getting a fair view of each side of the aisle, so to speak, you know, the red pill versus the blue pill.
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B
Yeah.
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A
And I would like, every two years or so, I would on purpose switch between the iOS platform and a certain career and then Android or Samsung platform.
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B
That's right.
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A
And see what the experience was like. And I did that at least. I gone back and forth at least twice and both times and you know, no offense to work with Samsung or Google whoever, but the pain, the experience was so painful for me, like having grown up in the Apple ecosystem for such a long time.
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B
Yeah.
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A
That it's not the Google experience that was painful, but it was just the oval, the combination of a device, a piece of hardware that was manufactured by somebody else, and then the software layer was provided by Google and other software OEMs. And just the lack of integration or the lack of synergy between the hardware and software was just so painfully frustrating that after like eight, after maybe three months, I was about to pull my hair out and. But I would stick with it for at least a year, at least like almost 18 months just to stick with it. But every time I had to go back to the iOS and I did that again and the same thing. So I'm. I want to be hopeful that the potential switch could bring me the bliss that I had been looking for. Yeah, yeah. But what would you say that would tip you over the edge and go to the green side versus the blue side?
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B
For me, it's. I think it's experience first. Right. So, I mean, I think any brand or company that's looking in the age of AI, and this is something I champion all the time, is that, you know, UX or developer experience, product experience is so important. I think it's the make or break, honestly, for me.
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A
Yeah.
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B
And Apple, you know, has done a great job of it over the last decade. The question is, can it bring this over to the next, you know, sort of the intelligence age and reinvent itself enough to make the experience top tier? Because Siri for me has not been.
- [23:30]
A
You mean Apple or Google Apple?
- [23:32]
B
Yeah. Can it bring it. Can it reinvent itself to bring the iOS experience to the intelligence age is still yet to be seen. Like, Siri was not a great experience for me. Still is not a great experience for me.
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A
I actually had, oh, it's horrible.
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B
I actually have to turn it off actively because it bothers me every time it comes on. And so that for me is like a crack in the armor. Whereas, you know, it used to be that every interaction was so thought out and deliberated on the iPhone that it feels like magic. And, you know, I think right now we haven't been seeing that, but, you know, we'll remain to see if that changes over time. But I would say experience is going to be the major way that any company today can leapfrog. Leapfrog, you know, so, like, I'm not saying that this is Apple's doomsday moment.
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A
Not at all.
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B
If they can leap, if they can, you know, sort of leverage what they have and leapfrog, I think that's great. But it is definitely an opportunity for Google or Android or anything of these companies to leapfrog. I mean, if they truly get the experience right.
- [24:33]
A
Yeah. I would say the best case scenario for a company like Apple is that Apple itself cracks the AI code and is able to produce their own AI platform that they can control. Apple can control and Apple can manage. That, I think, would be the best case scenario. I would say a second best, not so bad scenario for Apple and particularly the user is that whether it's Google + Gemini or OpenAI + ChatGPT, what you call the intelligence layer, if it's invisible enough, it might not matter to the user whether it was powered by Gemini or OpenAI or whatever LLM that is superior to everything else that delivers on the promise of, you know, you just talking to a phone and the phone getting it, you know, for you. And if Apple is the hardware delivery channel for those expenses and if that expense is. That portion of the expense is invisible to the user and is seamless whether it's delivered by Apple or Google or OpenAI, I would say that it's. It doesn't matter to the user and, you know, like Gmail versus Apple Mail or Google Doc versus Pages. I mean, I use Apple pretty religiously, but I still use Google Doc over Pages just because it works so much better across different devices. And whether I'm on an Apple device or not, it still works. So that's what matters to me as opposed to Is this an Apple product or not? So do think that. And I'm getting a vibe at least from what I read in the. On the Internet that I kind of wonder if Apple gave up on AI.
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B
I don't think so. I mean, there are a lot of smart. You don't think so? I don't think so. I think there are a lot of smart people in there.
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A
Yeah, no doubt, no doubt.
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B
No, I don't think they've given up. Clearly they have, you know, a really strong distribution system. You have really smart people working in there. I think their strategy is still a little bit unclear. And you know, they've always been, they've not really always been the first to market. They're a slower drum beat. So I wouldn't say the game is over, but I would say that it is heating up competition wise. I don't think it's given up. I think it's too early in a game to say things. Too early in the game to say. That's my sense.
- [27:03]
A
But you know, I don't know if I disagree with you. I want to believe that's true, but I'm not quite convinced that just because like they've had C for such a long time and I mean, to your point, it still doesn't work. It's such a bad product. And that's probably one of the most basic AI functions that a company like Apple should get right. But after so many years, for whatever reason, whether they're not investing enough in it or. I mean, I get newsletters with the word AI in it and Siri still pronounces AI as I. Yeah. Like when I read a subject headline from a newsletter or email that I get that has the word AI in it. Siri pronounces it, you know, so. And so I. Whatever. And it just beats me that in 2025 a company like Apple, I mean, somebody at Apple must notice those things. I don't know, but it just seems so maybe it's easy for me to say outside of being the fans. Yeah. But it just, it doesn't seem like that's. That is their priority for the time being. It must be. Yeah. Yeah. All right, so just to wrap up, where do you want to leave this conversation with?
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B
I mean, you know, I kind of, you know, champion it. I think this is a time of extreme transformation and I think there's a lot of reinvention that's going on across. So the companies that, you know, that can sort of leapfrog its competitors. I think this is a perfect Time to do it. You know, that's my, my, my real takeaway from this. And don't go, you know, barking after the wrong trees if you can, or if you can just course correct as quickly as possible. Like, don't be a, don't be an att in an 80s.
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A
Don't be an ATT. And in the 80s and in 2025, what was the mobile space back in the 80s that AT&T and McKinsey got so wrong? I mean, today Emery's saying, you know, AI, is it AI Z? But do you think there's anything else that we may be saying that, oh, you know what, this is not an opportunity. And then five years, 10 years from now that it becomes a massive opportunity? I think it's constant.
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B
I mean, my, my entire job is. Yeah, tracking these inventions. Right. So as an investor. Right. That's my, my day job. There are many. There's a lot of things going on.
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A
Name, name one. Name one. What do you like? AI is such a big space, but.
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B
Yeah, energy is a big one, you know, So I think I wrote about this as well, where it was like, you know, AI's main bottleneck, at least in the US, isn't just. It's not about data centers, it's about power. It's actually about energy. We're actually running out of energy. The US's energy grid was built for homes, not for industrials. And because we haven't caught up really in the last 30, 40 years, like, you know, manufacturing and industrial work has actually left the us. Right. We transitioned to a service economy. What happened was that our industrial infrastructure totally lapsed.
- [30:25]
A
Oh, wow. Okay.
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B
And so right now, to power all these, like, mega data centers.
- [30:31]
A
Yeah.
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B
We don't have the energy grid to make it happen. So there are two things. Either we built real fast or we create new ways to new sources of energy, which includes like nuclear, which includes other ways of doing it. But that's actually quite a big sticking point that I don't think people are really talking about. But we'll say that for another podcast. But yeah, that's. It's massive. Like you're. The Americas energy grid was built for homes, maybe offices. Maybe offices. Right, Homes and offices. Like white collar work, not industrials. So we're kind of approaching a chokehold right now, especially like on the East Coast, I would say around the Virginia area. That's a ton of new data centers going to, you know, that's sprouting up. They're requiring energy that would. That was traditionally used to power Like a town or home, like a suburb, not like industrial centers. So I think that's.
- [31:27]
A
So I just happened. This is. We could have a completely different conversation, a different episode on this alone. But one industry that is seeing a massive shift in terms of their need is architecture. So up until 2010, 20, maybe 20, architecture for business, like corporations was on the upswing. But in the last like 7 to 10 years it started to deteriorate and Covid definitely decreased the need for corporate offices to exist to some extent. Right. And then in exchange, the need for data centers and the need to design and build data center architecture is just on a hockey swing. Hockey stick swing. Yeah. So that's a slightly different topic. Well, that's I guess a very related. A very different topic that we can decide to focus on in the next couple weeks.
- [32:27]
B
All right, what's your takeaway from this conversation?
- [32:29]
A
I think that the next interface is invisible. Yeah. You know, there's been a lot of focus on user interface, user experience and using tools like ChatGPT and the Voice feature and just the fact that you can have a conversation with it to get things done or do certain things, it's not quite there as much as it's being talked about. Like in real case scenario, in real world scenarios. I'm yet to still rely on visual interfaces to get things done. But I don't think it's as far as we thought a couple years ago. And you know your point about intelligence as os, what enables that intelligence as is, as OS is visual and audio perception that makes it possible. It's shifting from touch to audio very quickly. It's not quite there yet, but I think it will be there sooner than, much sooner than we think. And it will. Speaking of prediction, at the end of 2024 I made a prediction that smart glasses like the Ray Ban meta product will finally start to see mass adoption by the end of 2025. I think I said, and a couple months after I made the prediction and I said that Apple would enter the space and at this point it's still a rumor that Apple is creating like a lower tier version of Vision Pro, but maybe in the next, you know, six to 12 months or so. That's probably the next product that Apple could. Apple could make. Yeah. But anyway, interface becoming invisible in the next 12 to 24 months I think is a reality.
- [34:22]
B
Yeah, I think the transition will happen quickly than we think for intelligence as os, I think would probably happen within the next three to five years.
- [34:31]
A
Yeah.
- [34:32]
B
So very quick. But think of the corresponding industries, right? Mobile app developers, any of that ecosystem, I think, is going to change very drastically. Ad advertising is going to change drastically.
- [34:44]
A
Yeah. And I will be. I will believe it when I see a green bubble from you.
- [34:50]
B
Or maybe there will not be any. Any more of that concept.
- [34:53]
A
Who knows that that's true? We'll see.
- [34:55]
B
Yeah, we'll see.
- [34:56]
A
All right. All right. That's a good place to end. All right.
- [34:58]
B
Yeah, take care. Bye.