Hold These Truths with Dan Crenshaw

Episode: SITREP 26: Hunting Ghost Fleets, Ukraine's Peace Offer, & the Military's Critical Mineral Fight
Date: December 13, 2025
Host: Dan Crenshaw

Episode Overview

In this SITREP (Situation Report) episode, Congressman Dan Crenshaw provides a rapid-fire breakdown of major global and domestic security and policy updates. Key topics include the U.S. Coast Guard's seizure of a "ghost fleet" oil tanker linked to Iran and Venezuela, the evolving peace proposal for the war in Ukraine, the U.S. military's new efforts to secure critical minerals from domestic sources, and rapid updates on Southeast Asian conflicts, immigration policy, and U.S. economic shifts. Crenshaw’s tone is matter-of-fact, direct, and laced with wry asides, as he distills complex issues for his listeners.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Cracking Down on the "Ghost Fleet"

[00:24–03:18]

• Seizure of Sanctioned Oil Tanker: U.S. Coast Guard intercepted a sanctioned oil tanker off Venezuela, formerly named the Adisa (now the Skipper), targeted for smuggling Iranian crude and laundering money tied to Hezbollah.

  • “President Trump wasted no time announcing it as well. The ship was sanctioned in 2022 for ties to Iran’s global oil smuggling network.” (Crenshaw, 00:28)

• Smuggling Tactics:

  • Disabling AIS (automatic identification system) tracking, “flying” false flags, and hiding in Venezuela’s shadow maritime fleet.
  • “You probably don’t want to do it. We’re going to find you.” (Crenshaw, 02:11)

• Broader Implications:

  • The operation signals a tougher stance on illicit oil networks in both the Caribbean and Persian Gulf.
  • Venezuela’s “ghost fleet” system is now the backbone of its exports, heavily involved with Russia and China.

• Notable Moment:

  • The vessel’s seizure coincided with the Nobel Peace Prize being awarded (in absentia) to Venezuelan dissident Maria Corina Machado, highlighting the nation’s ongoing turbulence.

2. Ukraine Peace Negotiations: Fragile Progress

[03:18–05:05]

• Evolving Peace Proposal:
  • Ukraine has responded to a streamlined, 20-point peace plan developed by the U.S., aimed at ending the war but grappling with fraught issues—land concessions, military caps, recognition of Russian gains.
  • “Trump has been openly pressing for a quick resolution, telling reporters the deal is closer than ever...” (Crenshaw, 04:07)
• Critical Sticking Points:
  • Zelensky is open to rapid elections (within 60–90 days) if security can be guaranteed—currently implausible.
  • Skepticism remains high among U.S., NATO, and EU officials; doubts over Putin’s actual intent to negotiate.
• Quote:
  • “Secretary of State Marco Rubio put it: ‘If they decide they don’t want to end the war, then the war will continue.’” (Crenshaw quoting Rubio, 05:01)

3. The U.S. Military’s Critical Minerals Fight – Ending Dependence on China

[05:05–07:02]

• Domestic Antimony Refineries:
  • The Army partners with Idaho National Labs and Perpetua Resources to build antimony refineries; aims to decrease reliance on China for this mineral vital to military and tech manufacturing.
  • “We’re done relying on China for minerals every time we want to make bullets, armor, or fire-resistant uniforms.” (Crenshaw, 05:17)
• Antimony Uses:
  • Fire protection for uniforms, bullets and primers, wildfire suppression, semiconductors, smartphone glass.
• China’s Leverage:
  • China supplies 48% of world production, controls 63% of U.S. imports, and has restricted exports to the U.S. for leverage since 2021.
• Long-Term Goals:
  • Initial steps—a domestic “trickle” rather than full supply independence—but a strategic hedge to rebuild lost U.S. refining capacity.

4. Rapid-Fire Updates: Southeast Asia, Immigration Policy, and the Fed

[07:02–09:29]

• Renewed Hostilities in Southeast Asia:
  • Ceasefire collapse between Thailand and Cambodia; mutual distrust, political meddling, border skirmishes, and landmine attacks spark mass evacuations and full military escalation.
• “Gold Card Visa” Executive Order:
  • Announced to fast-track residency/citizenship for “high-value, job-creating immigrants” under an executive order—though Crenshaw notes this likely requires Congressional action to truly take effect.
    • “It’s designed to attract top talent, major investment. That being said, I think many would argue Congress would have to actually pass this into law…” (Crenshaw, 08:16)
• Federal Reserve Rate Cut:
  • Third cut of the year: from 3.75% to 3.5%, with implications for the housing market.
• Britain’s Military Readiness:
  • Crenshaw references a chilling assessment of the UK’s defense endurance in wartime.
    • “Not trying to call out the Brits, just saying—spend more on your military.” (Crenshaw, 09:15)

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On illicit smuggling:
  “The seized vessel, the Skipper… not exactly a Carnival cruise ship.” (Crenshaw, 01:38)

• On the shadow tanker fleet:
  “About half [of Venezuela’s oil exports] go to China. Much of that crude is moved through a Ghost Fleet, nearly 800 old uninsured tankers with questionable ownership…” (Crenshaw, 01:57)

• On peace in Ukraine:
  “Diplomacy is a very fragile process… these are pretty, pretty explosive sticking points as we go through this.” (Crenshaw, 03:53)

• On critical minerals:
  “So what’s antimony? So it’s a pretty incredible element… It coats uniforms for fire protection. Also for low infrared visibility, shows up in bullets and primers.” (Crenshaw, 05:37)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:24 — Ghost fleet tanker seizure explained
• 03:18 — Ukraine peace plan status, key sticking points
• 05:05 — The U.S. military’s antimony initiative
• 07:02 — Southeast Asia conflict, border escalation
• 08:11 — “Gold Card Visa” executive order
• 08:40 — Federal Reserve rate cut, economic implications
• 09:12 — Britain’s military readiness, closing remarks

Conclusion

Dan Crenshaw’s SITREP 26 delivers an incisive overview of security, defense, and policy developments, with a tone both urgent and pragmatic. The episode weaves together high-stakes oil smuggling interdictions, the challenges and politics of peacemaking in Ukraine, critical moves toward securing American industry from Chinese mineral leverage, and brisk updates on global military and economic shifts. Crenshaw closes with a call for military preparedness, both domestically and for U.S. allies.