← Hold These Truths with Dan Crenshaw
Hold These Truths with Dan Crenshaw
SITREP 33: Iran Blockade, Trump-Xi Summit & Mexico Corruption
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We hold these truths to be self evident, that all men are created. As a member of Congress, I get to have a lot of really interesting people in the office, experts on what they're talking about. This is the podcast for insights into the issues. China, bioterrorism, Medicare for all in depth discussions, breaking it down into simple terms. We hold. We hold. We hold these truths. We hold these truths. With Dan Crenshaw, the eagle has landed. Welcome back sitrep33. Thanks for joining me as we cover the most important stories from this week and arm you with the facts. So let's start with an old one, the Straits of Hormuz. So this is still the world's most dangerous choke point. Now, the ceasefire between the US And Iran has held, I mean, more or less since April 8, but the Straits remain barely functional. Oil. Oil prices are hovering above $113 a barrel and both sides are accusing the other of violations. Now, the world's most critical energy corridor is still in limbo. So let's just do a quick review of the facts. On February 28, the US and Israel struck Iran's nuclear and missile infrastructure along with many other military targets. Iran responded by declaring the straits closed in attacking ships trying to transit. Before the conflict, there was about 3,000 vessels that use the strait every month. Now we're at about 5% of that. Pakistan brokered a conditional two week ceasefire on April 8th. So we paused strikes and Iran lets ships through with armed forces coordinating passage. The ceasefire has been extended, but let's not kid ourselves. By May 12, open transits were still back to near zero per day. Brent crude oil spiked almost 6% in a single session to $114 a barrel. And Saudi Aramco CEO even said publicly if the Strait stays blocked past mid June, oil markets won't normalize until 2027. So we also impose a naval blockade on Iranian ports that started on April 13th. So you've got Iran blockading the Gulf or at least threatening ships through it. Blockading Iran. So it's a bit of a dual blockade. I will say this is more painful for Iran than anyone else. They have about 37 tankers full of crude trapped inside the Persian Gulf. That represents about $6 billion in revenue. That would normally be funding the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. So it's good that it's not now. And the inability of Iran to move its crude and store it, it puts them on a pretty short timeline. So pressure is building on the Iranian regime, which is exactly what we are counting on. Trump has called Iran's latest peace proposal garbage because it is. And in spite of Iran's continuously unrealistic demands, US military officials are still trying to engage in discussions with the Iranians on how to keep the straits open. More to come Recently President Trump went to Beijing, traveled to Beijing on May 14th 15th for a two day summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Both sides are calling it historic. The summit, originally planned for earlier this year, was delayed by more than a month because of the Iran war. Trump brought a large delegation including top American CEOs Elon Musk, Tim Cook and Jensen Huang of Nvidia, among others. This signals an ambition to come home with some big economic deals now. One major commercial deal announced was a Chinese order for 200 Boeing jets. There's agricultural purchases were referenced though we don't have the details and we're still waiting on a breakthrough for American chips as well. On substance, both sides agreed to pursue a constructive China US relationship of strategic stability which Xi said would guide policy for the next three years. Trump called it the G2, said it would go down as a very important moment in history. Taiwan was obviously the most charged issue. China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi claimed afterward that Trump understands China's position on Taiwan and does not support the island moving it toward independence. Trump for his part, told Fox News that he'd like the situation to stay the way it is and made no commitment either way. On future arms sales, Xi warned directly that mishandling Taiwan could put the relationship into great jeopardy and risk clashes and even conflicts. And on Iran, Trump said he and she agreed Tehran should not have a nuclear weapon, though unsurprisingly she offered no concrete support for the US Pressure campaign on Iran. She is expected to visit the US in September to continue talks. Now moving back to our own hemisphere. Cuba is in the crosshairs. There's the Nimitz, there's indictments and the maximum pressure campaign. So on Wednesday, Cuban Independence Day, Trump administration unsealed a federal murder indictment against former Cuban President Raul Castro. He deployed the USS Nimitz carrier strike group to the Caribbean and issued its starkest warning yet to Havana. Since January we've hit Cuba with over 240 sanctions and measures. That's energy, defense, mining, financials. At least seven oil tankers headed to the island have been intercepted. Fuel imports are down 80 to 90%. Powers out up to 24 hours a day across more than half the country. So Cuba is running out of fuel and the regime is not managing it. And that indictment, Raul Castro, who's 94 charged with murder for ordering the 1996 shoot down of two Brothers to the Rescue planes over international waters. Four Cuban Americans were killed in that. This case has been a generational wound for the exile community for a long time. On Wednesday, the USS Nimitz carrier strike group moved into the southern Caribbean. Destroyers, logistics support, and a full air wing. Southcom called it a clear show of readiness and presence. The administration's line is pretty simple. We're there to support the Cuban people, not rattle the regiment. And the backstory matters here. In January, US Special Forces captured Maduro and killed 32 Cuban personnel who were protecting him. That's a catastrophic blow to Havana's intelligence services and their influence in the region. Cuba then acquired 300 military drones from Russia and Iran. CIA Director John Radcliffe recently flew to Cuba last week personally and reportedly told them the negotiating window is closing. The administration is treating Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua as one interconnected threat, not three separate problems. So why does this matter? Well, this is the most aggressive US posture toward Cuba that we've seen in decades, and it's moving very fast. The Nimitz deployment, the Raul Castro indictment, the fuel blockade, the CIA visit, these are not independent moves. They're a coordinated campaign designed to bring the Cuban regime to the negotiating table. Now moving on to Mexico and its cartel crisis. More indictments, some sovereignty issues, and a very complicated neighbor, as usual. So recently, the US indicted 10 current and former Mexican government officials on drug trafficking and cartel charges, including a sitting governor. Mexico refused to extradite them. Washington kept pushing with new sanctions. The most important bilateral relationship that we have in the Western Hemisphere is getting more complicated. And believe me, it was always complicated. Now, on April 29, DOJ unsealed a federal indictment out of New York charging 10 current and former Mexican officials with drug trafficking and Sinaloa cartel ties. Now, the top name we want to talk about is Ruben Rocha Moya. He's the sitting governor of Sinaloa. Also on the list is sitting federal senator and the mayor of Culiacan. Now, the indictment alleges Rocha met with Los Chapitos, which is a faction of Sinaloa cartel, before his election, and promised them friendly officials in exchange for cartel support. That would include stealing ballot boxes and intimidating opponents to secure his victory. No American administration has ever indicted a sitting Mexican governor until now. So, of course, this is going to ruffle some feathers. President Sheinbaum, president of Mexico, has refused to comply with the extradition of Rocha. And it should be said Roche is also part of Sheinbaum's Morena party. Now, she called it political meddling and demanded irrefutable evidence. Now, from the US perspective, there is ample evidence because, well, there wouldn't be an indictment otherwise. Scheinbaum pointed out that the US has denied 36 of Mexico's own extradition requests and said she'd apply the same standard. Now, of course, our argument would be that, well, extraditing Mexican criminals to Mexico would mean those criminals would walk free or at least be able to continue illegal operations from a corrupt prison system. Now, interestingly enough, a couple days within the indictment also, Mexican Attorney General then found there wasn't enough evidence to provisionally detain Rocha. However, May 2, Rocha did step down as governor. However, he's still in Mexico and not in US custody. Despite the Mexican government's initial reluctance to cooperate, though, and this is where it gets interesting. A couple weeks later, things started to change. On May 15, Mexico's Financial Intelligence Unit froze Rocha's bank accounts. That same week, his former state security chief, a guy named Gerardo Merida Sanchez, surrendered in U.S. authority to U.S. authorities in New York, becoming the first indicted official to face a federal charge. Now, that's pretty significant because when co defendants start surrendering voluntarily, that usually means they're cooperating. So the pressure inside Mexico appears to be building, and the US Is not letting up. Yesterday, the Office of Foreign assets control, or OFAC, sanctioned 11 individuals tied to Sinaloa and a Mexican restaurant and Chihuahua. Yeah, restaurant and, and a security firm tied to the Sinaloa cartel, Chapitos faction. Now, the main target, of course, is the cartel's primary money laundering scheme, which converts bulk fentanyl cash into crypto for transfer back to Mexico. Very difficult to trace and a constant headache for us trying to chase the cartels. Now, in other developing headlines, Elon Musk's SpaceX has revealed plans to go public in the US it's going to allow people to trade shares in the firm on the stock market. And if this IPO goes well, Elon Musk majority ownership of the company might make him the world's first trillionaire. Also, the Federal Reserve appoints Kevin Warsh as the new Fed Chair. The new leadership is actually expected to take a more aggressive stance on inflation control, with a stronger emphasis on maintaining tight monetary policy conditions. Jerome Powell will stay on as the governor of the Reserve after his term ends amidst calls for his resignation. And Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin deepen China. Russia partnership in Beijing talks. So that's just great. And Russia is of course shifting more and more of its oil and gas exports toward China after the Ukraine war. It looks like China and Russia are continuing to align against Western interests and pressure. So more than ever, we have to talk about our alliances against them and protecting American interests at home and overseas. And lastly, if you read nothing else, here's an interesting piece about Memorial Day. It's on the Washington Post. It's called Six Veterans on the Best Way to Honor Memorial Day. Good reminder of what Memorial Day is really about. Give it a read. Happy Memorial Day weekend. I'm out.