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The Iranians had one reasonable chance to negotiate an end to the war. Donald Trump sent J.D. Vance, reportedly a skeptic of military action, to Islamabad to lead the American delegation. The Pakistan government urged the Iranians to take this seriously. Instead, the IRGC junta refused to negotiate at all on the main points of the conflict, especially their pursuit of nuclear weapons and claims of sovereign control of the Strait of Hormuz.

Then: Trump ordered a blockade of all Iranian shipping through the Strait—a move that will cost Iran’s regime $450 million dollars a day in lost sales and eliminate their only reliable method of resupply during the war. The Iranians threatened to escalate, but Trump has his own escalation options too.

As military analyst Sascha Bruchmann told a German news program, the Battle of Hormuz is a game of chicken, and “it is dangerous to play a game of chicken against Donald Trump.”

That’s the lesson the world ought to be learning. It’s a lesson we need to see through to the end in Iran.

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