How to Money – Friday Flight: Warflation, Attractive ARMs, & Drone Home Assessments (#1116)
Aired: March 20, 2026
Hosts: Joel and Matt
Episode Overview
This Friday Flight episode features Joel and Matt breaking down the financial ripple effects of intensified global conflict (“warflation”), the resurgence of adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs), and the new wave of drone-assisted home insurance assessments. As always, the duo weaves in candid listener stories, practical advice, and sharp opinions on consumer trends and market shifts. The episode tackles how individuals can navigate rising costs, smarter borrowing, and tricky homeownership realities.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Side Hustles from Listeners & Managing Life Stages
Timestamps: 03:42 – 07:54
- Listener Stories: Joel and Matt express appreciation for listeners sharing their diverse side hustles – from winemaking (Matthew's small winery and Airbnb rentals on his property) to creative cocktail kits (Sheila's batch cocktails in mason jars).
- Creative Outlets: Many listeners maintain traditional jobs and pursue side hustles as personal passion projects, not as primary income sources, reflecting a trend of “creativity over hustle culture.”
- Parenting & Time: The hosts reflect on the time demands of parenting young kids and anticipate eventual bandwidth for new ventures or hobbies in later stages of life.
- “There’s a whole lot of time that goes into being a parent, but at a certain point, that’s going to taper off.” – Matt (07:20)
- Resource: Promise to link listener Sheila’s cocktail hustle in show notes.
2. Warflation: Economic Impact of Global Conflict
Timestamps: 08:16 – 17:34
- Iran War & Oil Prices: The US-initiated war with Iran causes significant hikes in oil/gas prices, with gas up about $1 per gallon over the last month. The hosts focus on economic, not political, analysis.
- Ripple Effects: Rising oil prices raise costs for goods (e.g., toys made with petroleum-derived plastics) and disrupt airfares—which have recently doubled on some routes.
- “Higher gas prices can cause other prices to rise. It’s not just about how long prices at the pump stay elevated.” – Joel (09:08)
- Stock Market Reactions: Despite market fears, historical data shows that rising oil prices don’t automatically trigger a stock market decline. In many past years, equities have gained despite higher oil.
- “Ben Carlson… found that the stock market does better in years when oil prices rise.” – Joel (14:41)
- Long-term Investing: The hosts reiterate the futility of trying to time the market, advocating instead for a long-term, steady investment approach.
- “If instead of getting rich slowly, you’d rather lose money quickly… start trading futures!” – Matt (17:57)
3. The Rise of Speculative Micro-Betting & Polymarkets
Timestamps: 18:49 – 29:58
- Short-Term Gambling: Joel and Matt critique the surge in risky “betting” on financial instruments, including five-minute price movements in crypto via platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi.
- “[It’s] essentially like putting money on red or black on roulette.” – Joel (19:45)
- Real-World Fallout: They discuss a disturbing story where gamblers harassed a journalist, even issuing threats, over the outcome of bets on an Iran-Israel missile event—demonstrating the ethical and social hazards of high-stakes predictive betting.
- Legal Pushback & Expansion: Arizona sues Kalshi for illegal gambling (especially betting on elections). Contradictorily, Major League Baseball is partnering with Polymarket.
- Hosts’ Stance: Sharp condemnation of these platforms as dangerous, casino-like, and ripe for user losses.
- “It’s a completely ridiculous approach to trying to make money. I think we’re gonna see just a ton of people lose money.” – Joel (20:55)
4. Ticketmaster, Live Nation & Monopoly Woes
Timestamps: 20:55 – 22:56
- Monopoly Practices: Recent DOJ action allows venues to use alternate ticketing companies—not just Ticketmaster/Live Nation— for selling up to half their seats.
- Skepticism: The hosts are unconvinced this will significantly change pricing or customer experience, but see it as a (small) step in the right direction.
- Culture of Exploitation: Internal communications revealed executives laughing about “robbing [fans] blind,” reinforcing public antipathy toward the enterprise.
- “It’s like dealing with the mafia.” – Joel (22:17)
5. Drone Home Assessments & Insurance
Timestamps: 29:58 – 33:58
- Insurance Companies & Drones: State Farm and others are using drone overflights to inspect properties, expediting notices for costly repairs (e.g., $20,000 roof fixes).
- Privacy & Advocacy: Drones intensify feelings of intrusion, but Joel and Matt note that insurance companies have always used physical inspections. They stress the importance of engaging with the insurer, documenting disputes, and being handy to save on repairs.
- “This is another case for learning how to get handy with some of these repairs.” – Matt (32:41)
- Soaring Premiums: Home insurance has risen 24% in Georgia since 2023, making it more critical to maintain insurance compliance and shop around for good rates.
6. Home Ownership: Down Payment Assistance & ARMs
Timestamps: 33:58 – 39:25
- Down Payment Programs: Many cities offer assistance even for middle-income buyers—e.g., Memphis aids those earning twice the median income, San Francisco’s limit is $200,000. The hosts direct listeners to Down Payment Resource for local opportunities.
- ARMs Are Back: Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARMs) are regaining popularity due to wider spreads versus fixed rates. They warn against reflexively dismissing ARMs (due to 2008 crisis connotations), as new versions have stronger guardrails.
- “Everyone deserves a second chance—even ARMs.” – Matt (39:25)
- Considerations for ARMs: Suitability depends on expected home tenure; given the average homeowner stays ~12 years now, a 7- or 10-year ARM could yield substantial savings for many buyers.
7. Youth Sports Spending & Second-Hand Strategies
Timestamps: 39:41 – 43:54
- Rising Costs: Growing youth sports participation has driven up costs for both gear and travel. Dick’s Sporting Goods profits from this “professionalization” by making their stores experiential for families.
- Alternatives: Joel and Matt urge parents to skip the high-end gear (e.g., $125 cleats) and instead buy second-hand—e.g., they share anecdotes about scoring high-quality bats at Goodwill.
- “Dick’s is—they’re selling potential… the ability for your kid to be awesome at whatever sport.” – Matt (42:34)
- Perspective: Most kids won’t become sports superstars—expensive gear isn’t necessary for a great youth sports experience.
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
-
On parenting and side hustles:
“There’s a whole lot of time that goes into being a parent, but at a certain point, that’s going to taper off.” – Matt (07:20) -
On warflation:
“Higher gas prices can cause other prices to rise. It’s not just about how long prices at the pump stay elevated.” – Joel (09:08) -
On market noise:
“People are more likely to overcomplicate things than undercomplicate things, which tends to lead to underperformance in their portfolios.” – Matt (16:48) -
On micro-trading:
“[It’s] essentially like putting money on red or black on roulette.” – Joel (19:45) -
On drone home inspections:
“This is another case for learning how to get handy with some of these repairs.” – Matt (32:41) -
On ARMs:
“Everyone deserves a second chance—even ARMs.” – Matt (39:25) -
On youth sports spending:
“Dick’s is—they’re selling potential… the ability for your kid to be awesome at whatever sport.” – Matt (42:34)
“Your kid's not Michael Jordan... getting cheaper cleats isn’t going to inhibit their ability to enjoy the game.” – Joel (43:10)
Important Timestamps
- Listener Side Hustles: 03:42 – 07:54
- Warflation & Economic Impacts: 08:16 – 17:34
- Market Volatility & Advice: 14:23 – 17:34
- Speculative Betting/Polymarkets: 18:49 – 29:58
- Ticketmaster & Monopolies: 20:55 – 22:56
- Insurance Company Drone Inspections: 29:58 – 33:58
- Homeownership & ARMs/Assistance: 33:58 – 39:25
- Youth Sports, Spending, and Secondhand Tips: 39:41 – 43:54
Tone & Style
Conversational, approachable, and sharp-witted. Joel and Matt maintain a blend of practical advice, skeptical commentary on financial fads, and relatable anecdotes—always aiming for accessible, actionable knowledge without jargon or condescension.
For further information and resources mentioned:
- Sheila’s cocktail kits: [Link to be provided in show notes]
- Down Payment Resource Tool
- Ben Carlson and Sam Romad’s market analysis
Episode Takeaway:
Stay the course with investing, beware of trendy financial “hacks,” and look for creative, practical ways to save—whether shopping for a mortgage, dealing with insurance, or helping your kids play ball. Be skeptical of financial “innovation” that’s really just gambling in disguise, and remember: grit outlasts gear!