Friday Flight - Warflation, Attractive ARMs, & Drone Home Assessments #1116

Summary

How to Money – Friday Flight: Warflation, Attractive ARMs, & Drone Home Assessments (#1116)

Aired: March 20, 2026
Hosts: Joel and Matt

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Episode Overview

This Friday Flight episode features Joel and Matt breaking down the financial ripple effects of intensified global conflict (“warflation”), the resurgence of adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs), and the new wave of drone-assisted home insurance assessments. As always, the duo weaves in candid listener stories, practical advice, and sharp opinions on consumer trends and market shifts. The episode tackles how individuals can navigate rising costs, smarter borrowing, and tricky homeownership realities.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Side Hustles from Listeners & Managing Life Stages

Timestamps: 03:42 – 07:54

• Listener Stories: Joel and Matt express appreciation for listeners sharing their diverse side hustles – from winemaking (Matthew's small winery and Airbnb rentals on his property) to creative cocktail kits (Sheila's batch cocktails in mason jars).
• Creative Outlets: Many listeners maintain traditional jobs and pursue side hustles as personal passion projects, not as primary income sources, reflecting a trend of “creativity over hustle culture.”
• Parenting & Time: The hosts reflect on the time demands of parenting young kids and anticipate eventual bandwidth for new ventures or hobbies in later stages of life.
  • “There’s a whole lot of time that goes into being a parent, but at a certain point, that’s going to taper off.” – Matt (07:20)
• Resource: Promise to link listener Sheila’s cocktail hustle in show notes.

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2. Warflation: Economic Impact of Global Conflict

Timestamps: 08:16 – 17:34

• Iran War & Oil Prices: The US-initiated war with Iran causes significant hikes in oil/gas prices, with gas up about $1 per gallon over the last month. The hosts focus on economic, not political, analysis.
• Ripple Effects: Rising oil prices raise costs for goods (e.g., toys made with petroleum-derived plastics) and disrupt airfares—which have recently doubled on some routes.
  • “Higher gas prices can cause other prices to rise. It’s not just about how long prices at the pump stay elevated.” – Joel (09:08)
• Stock Market Reactions: Despite market fears, historical data shows that rising oil prices don’t automatically trigger a stock market decline. In many past years, equities have gained despite higher oil.
  • “Ben Carlson… found that the stock market does better in years when oil prices rise.” – Joel (14:41)
• Long-term Investing: The hosts reiterate the futility of trying to time the market, advocating instead for a long-term, steady investment approach.
  • “If instead of getting rich slowly, you’d rather lose money quickly… start trading futures!” – Matt (17:57)

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3. The Rise of Speculative Micro-Betting & Polymarkets

Timestamps: 18:49 – 29:58

• Short-Term Gambling: Joel and Matt critique the surge in risky “betting” on financial instruments, including five-minute price movements in crypto via platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi.
  • “[It’s] essentially like putting money on red or black on roulette.” – Joel (19:45)
• Real-World Fallout: They discuss a disturbing story where gamblers harassed a journalist, even issuing threats, over the outcome of bets on an Iran-Israel missile event—demonstrating the ethical and social hazards of high-stakes predictive betting.
• Legal Pushback & Expansion: Arizona sues Kalshi for illegal gambling (especially betting on elections). Contradictorily, Major League Baseball is partnering with Polymarket.
• Hosts’ Stance: Sharp condemnation of these platforms as dangerous, casino-like, and ripe for user losses.
  • “It’s a completely ridiculous approach to trying to make money. I think we’re gonna see just a ton of people lose money.” – Joel (20:55)

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4. Ticketmaster, Live Nation & Monopoly Woes

Timestamps: 20:55 – 22:56

• Monopoly Practices: Recent DOJ action allows venues to use alternate ticketing companies—not just Ticketmaster/Live Nation— for selling up to half their seats.
• Skepticism: The hosts are unconvinced this will significantly change pricing or customer experience, but see it as a (small) step in the right direction.
• Culture of Exploitation: Internal communications revealed executives laughing about “robbing [fans] blind,” reinforcing public antipathy toward the enterprise.
  • “It’s like dealing with the mafia.” – Joel (22:17)

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5. Drone Home Assessments & Insurance

Timestamps: 29:58 – 33:58

• Insurance Companies & Drones: State Farm and others are using drone overflights to inspect properties, expediting notices for costly repairs (e.g., $20,000 roof fixes).
• Privacy & Advocacy: Drones intensify feelings of intrusion, but Joel and Matt note that insurance companies have always used physical inspections. They stress the importance of engaging with the insurer, documenting disputes, and being handy to save on repairs.
  • “This is another case for learning how to get handy with some of these repairs.” – Matt (32:41)
• Soaring Premiums: Home insurance has risen 24% in Georgia since 2023, making it more critical to maintain insurance compliance and shop around for good rates.

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6. Home Ownership: Down Payment Assistance & ARMs

Timestamps: 33:58 – 39:25

• Down Payment Programs: Many cities offer assistance even for middle-income buyers—e.g., Memphis aids those earning twice the median income, San Francisco’s limit is $200,000. The hosts direct listeners to Down Payment Resource for local opportunities.
• ARMs Are Back: Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARMs) are regaining popularity due to wider spreads versus fixed rates. They warn against reflexively dismissing ARMs (due to 2008 crisis connotations), as new versions have stronger guardrails.
  • “Everyone deserves a second chance—even ARMs.” – Matt (39:25)
• Considerations for ARMs: Suitability depends on expected home tenure; given the average homeowner stays ~12 years now, a 7- or 10-year ARM could yield substantial savings for many buyers.

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7. Youth Sports Spending & Second-Hand Strategies

Timestamps: 39:41 – 43:54

• Rising Costs: Growing youth sports participation has driven up costs for both gear and travel. Dick’s Sporting Goods profits from this “professionalization” by making their stores experiential for families.
• Alternatives: Joel and Matt urge parents to skip the high-end gear (e.g., $125 cleats) and instead buy second-hand—e.g., they share anecdotes about scoring high-quality bats at Goodwill.
  • “Dick’s is—they’re selling potential… the ability for your kid to be awesome at whatever sport.” – Matt (42:34)
• Perspective: Most kids won’t become sports superstars—expensive gear isn’t necessary for a great youth sports experience.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On parenting and side hustles:
  “There’s a whole lot of time that goes into being a parent, but at a certain point, that’s going to taper off.” – Matt (07:20)

• On warflation:
  “Higher gas prices can cause other prices to rise. It’s not just about how long prices at the pump stay elevated.” – Joel (09:08)

• On market noise:
  “People are more likely to overcomplicate things than undercomplicate things, which tends to lead to underperformance in their portfolios.” – Matt (16:48)

• On micro-trading:
  “[It’s] essentially like putting money on red or black on roulette.” – Joel (19:45)

• On drone home inspections:
  “This is another case for learning how to get handy with some of these repairs.” – Matt (32:41)

• On ARMs:
  “Everyone deserves a second chance—even ARMs.” – Matt (39:25)

• On youth sports spending:
  “Dick’s is—they’re selling potential… the ability for your kid to be awesome at whatever sport.” – Matt (42:34)
  “Your kid's not Michael Jordan... getting cheaper cleats isn’t going to inhibit their ability to enjoy the game.” – Joel (43:10)

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Important Timestamps

• Listener Side Hustles: 03:42 – 07:54
• Warflation & Economic Impacts: 08:16 – 17:34
• Market Volatility & Advice: 14:23 – 17:34
• Speculative Betting/Polymarkets: 18:49 – 29:58
• Ticketmaster & Monopolies: 20:55 – 22:56
• Insurance Company Drone Inspections: 29:58 – 33:58
• Homeownership & ARMs/Assistance: 33:58 – 39:25
• Youth Sports, Spending, and Secondhand Tips: 39:41 – 43:54

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Tone & Style

Conversational, approachable, and sharp-witted. Joel and Matt maintain a blend of practical advice, skeptical commentary on financial fads, and relatable anecdotes—always aiming for accessible, actionable knowledge without jargon or condescension.

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For further information and resources mentioned:

• Sheila’s cocktail kits: [Link to be provided in show notes]
• Down Payment Resource Tool
• Ben Carlson and Sam Romad’s market analysis

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Episode Takeaway:
Stay the course with investing, beware of trendy financial “hacks,” and look for creative, practical ways to save—whether shopping for a mortgage, dealing with insurance, or helping your kids play ball. Be skeptical of financial “innovation” that’s really just gambling in disguise, and remember: grit outlasts gear!

Transcript

[Joel]

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[Matt]

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[Joel]

to how to Money. I'm Joel.

[Matt]

I'm Matt.

[Joel]

Today we're talking warflation, attractive arms and drone Home Assess.

[Matt]

Attractive arms. Even lifting a little bit.

[Joel]

Joel. Not me.

[Matt]

I'm assuming you did go for a run this morning. Does the day end in Y like you do? I thought maybe you'd start tapering down before the race tomorrow. Running a race on a little 5k on Saturday.

[Joel]

So, you know, it's just a little neighborhood thing. So.

[Matt]

What do you mean it's a neighborhood thing?

[Joel]

It's not like some big race. It's not like we're running in the Olympics or anything, man.

[Matt]

How far did you run today?

[Joel]

Eight miles.

[Matt]

Oh, my gosh. You're supposed to like. But I guess when you are used to running like 11, 12 for you is like a typical day. Dialing it back to 8, that's you taking it easy. No, we're not going to talk about the running. This is our Friday flight. We got the headlines to get to. And real quick, let's thank all the listeners who reached out to us and shared some of their side hustles. Was that Monday's episode?

[Joel]

No, it wasn't last Friday.

[Matt]

Last Friday, that's right.

[Joel]

We talked about side hustles and we got some good emails. Yeah. It's fun to hear what people are doing to make money on the side. You have a favorite of folks who reached out. Well, one, the one that fascinated me the most probably was listener Matthew, who is starting a winery on the side.

[Matt]

The farm that he bought, he's like,

[Joel]

yeah, weekends are spent, like, getting the soil ready. Like, it's gotta be a ton of work.

[Matt]

What do you see?

[Joel]

23 acres or something.

[Matt]

I don't remember the details. I was just picturing somebody like Russell Crowe a good year, and he's purchasing this old estate and it's just like, I don't know, can the land support the grapes? Will I be able to get something good out of the ground? I think it's gonna be a. It's gotta be a massive labor of love.

[Joel]

Yeah.

[Matt]

To do something like that. Oh, he did Say that that was the one where he said that there was some property on the. There are some buildings or houses on the property that he actually rents out on Airbnb. So you've got like a dual pronged approach there. You're not completely counting on the, you

[Joel]

know, the grapes, the multifaceted side hustle.

[Matt]

I like that.

[Joel]

Two birds with one stone. And then I guess it makes sense that how to money listeners would have alcohol related pursuits based on the fact that we drink beer on the show. But listener Sheila wrote to us about a cocktail side hustle that she has. Matt. And maybe we'll link to this in the show notes. But just like kind of all the ingredients to make a batch cocktail, it

[Matt]

came in the mason jars.

[Joel]

Yeah, yeah, just pour the bourbon on top or just pour the rum on top or whatever it is. So I'm, I'm a rum cocktail guy right now, so I mean, I might need to get one.

[Matt]

I think it's been a minute since you've said it's the year of rum.

[Joel]

It's the year of rum, baby.

[Matt]

I went ahead and said it for you.

[Joel]

I'm living in it.

[Matt]

You know what was really cool, actually, something I noticed among multiple folks who responded was the fact that they had solid full time jobs. Right. They had very dependable, well paying main gigs. And for them, they realized, oh, this is an outlet for my creativity. This is something I'm interested in. Not necessarily trying to pursue it full time, but if it happens to take off, okay, so be it.

[Joel]

Maybe.

[Matt]

But the ability to maintain that steady 9 to 5 or slightly even less than 9 to 5 throughout the week and then whether you're moonlighting or spending more time in the afternoons and evenings. On a similar note, listeners who are older as well and who have found that they had more time on their hands, I found that really, I don't know, that kind of affirmed some beliefs that I've had. And folks who I've talked with where I'm realizing at this stage of life that I'm in currently with, specifically given the age of the kids, they're not able to drive. And so we're at like maximum capacity of, you know, me being needed as a parent, as dad years, which means driving them here, talking to them about this, like they're still smart enough to know that we know more than they do.

[Joel]

Not for long.

[Matt]

Yeah, it won't be for long. And so like they're asking us a lot of questions, wanting to help with their home. Like there's just all of these Things and all these different capacities in ways that that is being asked of us. And I'm like, yeah, it's, there's a whole lot of time that goes into being a parent, but at a certain point that's going to taper off. Yeah, it's going to be sad when it's.

[Joel]

When it does.

[Matt]

But I see time opening up down like 10 years from now to pursue a different side hustle or to start another business or, you know, if we're still doing this, ramp this up in a different way. I don't know. But when you're. I find that encouraging when you're in

[Joel]

those years with young kids and it just requires everything from you is what it feels like. Yes, it's.

[Matt]

It's hard to think physically, emotionally, mentally.

[Joel]

Yeah, it's hard to think that that won't always be the case. But that won't always be the case.

[Matt]

It won't.

[Joel]

One of these days it will change. We will have more free time and whatever our, our little hearts desire, Matt, in terms of side hustles, we'll be able to, we'll be able to launch. So.

[Matt]

Yeah, we'll see.

[Joel]

It's kind of, kind of cool. Just big thanks to everybody for sharing.

[Matt]

Thank you. Yeah, yeah, yeah. And we. You know what? I. Let's. I'll totally put. You mentioned she was it Sheila. I will link to her site. Folks can check her out because when folks reach out to us, not only do we personally enjoy that, but we want that to be a positive thing for you as well. So thanks to everyone who listens to the show.

[Joel]

You want to talk about war for a second, Matt? Yeah.

[Matt]

Iran specifically.

[Joel]

Yeah. We'll try to stay apolitical as always, as much as possible as we can in this situation.

[Matt]

Just focus on the money. Yeah, don't show me the money.

[Joel]

Joel, you have like a favorite anti war song.

[Matt]

Anti war? Oh, I just.

[Joel]

There's so many good ones like in.

[Matt]

I immediately think of Rush Hour with Jackie Chan.

[Joel]

Oh, really?

[Matt]

Was it Chris Tucker? Oh, yeah, yeah. Okay.

[Joel]

So fun. Okay, so the war has of course, of course impacted.

[Matt]

Well, you didn't answer. Do you have an anti war. Oh, you're thinking of Billy Strings, of course. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Joel]

Orgasm. It's a great song. So. But oil and gas prices going up, right? And prices at the tank are up. I'm guessing on average. I haven't looked at the AAA stats the last few days, but about a dollar a gallon. Yeah, maybe a little more.

[Matt]

Even more than it was last week

[Joel]

over the past Month. Right. And so while we're not experiencing like a 1980s reality of gas lines and rationing of the impact is already quite noticeable for most Americans. There was a short sighted, I would say article in the Wall Street Journal, Matt, that was focused solely on prices at the pumpkin, which is not just an, it's a significant story in a lot of ways. But higher gas prices can cause other prices to rise. Right. So it's not just about how long prices at the pump stay elevated. It's about all of these other things that, these inputs that affect the lifeblood of our economy. Oil, Right. It's used in the making and shipping of your child's favorite toys. Think of Legos. Right?

[Matt]

It's used to actually make those Legos, right.

[Joel]

And not just deliver them to the shelf.

[Matt]

The inputs to plastics as well, Right.

[Joel]

Toy prices or prices on the shelves at Target are going to rise because of that. Walmart, all that stuff. Mortgage rates are rising again after dipping below 6% which is potentially throwing a wrench into the spring housing market. I'm curious to see what sort of impact that has. Matt, are people like, ooh, when I was able to get that 5 something rate, I was interested in buying but now the rates are back up above 6. I'm just less inclined. Maybe I'll sit this one out for a little while longer. The impacts of what's happening right now, the known and unknown future realities of this conflict, the US initiated war with Iran, the way it's going to impact consumers, not only is it polarizing, but it's having. How long lived will it be? I don't know. How long will the war last? We don't know. But this really could have significant economic impacts for everyday people and not just they go beyond price at the pump and that alone.

[Matt]

Yeah, yeah. I won't hate on that article too much because that is how we are feeling it most immediately currently from a financial standpoint, right? Because like that truly that, like it takes a minute for it to trickle through the economy when it comes to input prices, when it comes to, to shipping, food, all that kind of stuff. But the sort of, the emotional impact and the sort of consumer sentiment that is also immediate, right? Like so we feel it immediately at the pump because literally that's just oil and gas, but sort of the consumer sentiment that is also immediate. But then everything else, I mean it takes weeks and months for it to trickle through the system. One area where it doesn't take time to trickle through is when it comes to air travel because when you Buy a ticket. What do you. It's funny to think about, like we think about buying a plane ticket, but really what we're just paying for is like jet fuel. Yeah.

[Joel]

It's like, yeah, the seat for the most part and the pilot. Right. You got to pay their salaries, but jet fuel is one of the big cost.

[Matt]

Yeah, yeah. I mean that's like basically what you're paying for. There's an analysis by Deutsche bank and they report that airfares have doubled on some flights in just the past couple weeks and more price increases are likely coming. According to travel industry insiders, prices jet fuel is up about 50%. But it is not the whole story. Inflation, which is being tamed for the most part. And heading closer to the Fed's 2% goal, it's now going to the wrong direction.

[Joel]

Jerome Powell is a little concerned about that, mentioned that in his recent remarks. Right, yeah, yeah.

[Matt]

So there's a chance that, I mean there's more indicators that there may not be any cuts depending on which direction the war goes, how long it lasts. All that is up in the air. We'll see just essentially the, like the length of the war, the breadth of the war. These are all going to be inputs as to how long we're going to see these increased prices. And obviously that's not wholly within the control of our elected leaders. And so this is going to determine whether this increased price pressure is going to be a short term reality where the extent of which we'll see it is mostly when it comes to fuel prices or this is going to hopefully not, but potentially turn into a long term reality.

[Joel]

So bad news in terms of airlines is that when you're looking at prices, you might find they're significantly higher than what you were looking at for your summer travel two, three weeks ago. Man. I'm curious though, did you see United saying what they just said about maybe some good news on the airfare front?

[Matt]

Headphones.

[Joel]

Yeah, headphones on flights. And if you don't, you might be banned permanently.

[Matt]

100% okay with that.

[Joel]

Me too. What about you use your headphones, people?

[Matt]

Yeah. And the fact too that aren't they offering for folks like they're gonna offer like a cheap pair of headphones, which

[Joel]

they're always just awful headphones.

[Matt]

They're awful. But that should encourage you. Oh, I should have remembered to bring my own. But even if you forget to bring your own earbuds or you know, plug in headphones, they're serviceable. Don't, don't turn on the sound like it sounds not like even when I'm in my own home, I hardly ever have the sound on, you know, I don't know, there's just something about that noise pollution that I, that I hate. But I'm totally for this and I'm totally for if it's polarizing because there can be certain airlines and certain carriers, I think, who choose to do this and there can be others who choose not to. Yeah. And then people can sort of self select. Aren't there certain commuter train lines, like up in the Northeast that have like quiet cars? Like on the trail there's quiet cars where people are just sitting there reading the paper, reading their book. It's quiet and peaceful. And then you got the family party cars or whatever. Just a bit more noisy. I'm totally fine if airlines choose to go in that direction. Yeah, I don't know. That's. That's what I want to see more

[Joel]

of in the world.

[Matt]

At least.

[Joel]

I like it. Way to go, United.

[Matt]

Yeah.

[Joel]

Oh, Matt. Okay, let's talk about the kind of what's happening with stocks in the aftermath of the war as well. Like some people are saying, oh man, we're totally going to have a market correction, be ready for falling stock prices. We haven't. We've seen a slight decline in the S and P. We haven't seen any major reaction.

[Matt]

Nothing massive.

[Joel]

Yeah, but that is something more people are asking, given the new geopolitical reality, what's happening right now? The wide domino effect of high oil prices could have cascading consequences. But it's always helpful, I think, to go back and look at the data and to see what's happened in the past. When we've had historical events that have not been the exact same but that have rhymed, specifically when oil prices have gone up meaningfully, what happens to the stock market? A friend of the show, Ben Carlson, who we're going to have on actually again in a couple of months, he found that the stock market does better in years when oil prices rise. You might be thinking, oh my goodness, this geopolitical conflict is leading to a lot of concern about stocks and man, oil prices rising. I think this is going to hammer the market. You might be thinking, maybe I should take a step back for a little bit, or maybe I should change the way I'm invested. Well, Ben Carlson would say, based on historical analysis, probably not. You probably shouldn't change a thing. What happens to your portfolio in the short term? That's a really good question. Who knows? But I think I'm with Financial writer Sam Romad, who describes himself as a long term optimist and a short term cautious optimist. Yeah, and I think that's the best way to be.

[Matt]

I like that better than Ben's. Yeah. My small issue with Ben, I feel like sometimes these guys can go over the top when it comes to their analysis because.

[Joel]

What did he say that you didn't like?

[Matt]

I mean, towards the end of his piece, he said that for the most part, like when you look at, let's see, it's after oil rises like more than 5% for a couple of days. If you look at the subsequent 1, 3, 6, 12 month time periods, for the most part the market goes up, which is exactly what the stock market normally does anyway. You can completely remove oil as a variable at all. It's just like, yep, that's what the stock market does. For the most part. It goes up three, three out of four years. You know, I don't know. That's the part where even him writing about that sometimes bothers me because of the noise that it injects into the system when you're talking about DIY investment.

[Joel]

That's what investing nerds do though, man.

[Matt]

It's what they do. But when it comes to people who, people I think are more likely to overcomplicate things than undercomplicate things, which tends to lead to underperformance in their portfolios, that's the part that I would rather of the rithol skies, we'll quote another guy. How about Nick, Julie, just keep buying because that's what I would recommend for folks who are in the wealth building stage of their life.

[Joel]

And Sam would both say that too.

[Matt]

They definitely, I think obviously he's out there providing some nice color, giving folks a good way to think about this. Yeah, I'm guessing what he would say as well is, hey, I'm trying to keep people from running for the exits. Which is the first point that you're trying to make as well for folks who might be potentially trying to sit this one out where they're like, oh no, 20, 26, it's going to be one of these years where I'm not expecting to see much growth.

[Joel]

I don't want to be a part of this bloodbath. And then the bloodbath doesn't occur and you actually missed out on stock market gains. And I'm not even promising that. Who knows, the stock market could suffer losses this year. And maybe you look smart for a second, but then you always have the difficult conundrum of when to get back in, when is it safe. It's just really hard to play that game successfully over a long. Yeah.

[Matt]

And that's what we are. We're in this for the long haul. But if instead of getting rich slowly, if instead you'd rather lose money quickly. Well, if you want to ensure that, just start trading futures, which is all the rage right now as degenerates are trading gas futures 24 7. Now, oil and gas prices could have further to rise, but whether they fall, a rise in the next minutes or hours is very much in flux. And of course given the just the high degree of uncertainty in this market, not to mention the taco pivots that Trump tends to make, I would not want any of my money wagering on day to day or even hourly market movements, man. Aside from that, investing on a short term timeline is only a good idea if your risk appetite is, let's just say, significant and you're using money that you don't mind losing because that is what's most likely, likely going to happen.

[Joel]

Yeah, yeah.

[Matt]

It's hard to even categorize this in the same sort of silo as investing because it's not, it's not investing, it's basically gambling.

[Joel]

Well, and something else that was highlighted in the Financial Times this week, Matt. They were talking about how it's not just trading gas futures. Hey, where's the price of oil going to be tomorrow? And let's see if I can make money quickly. People are trying to make money investing on an even shorter timeline. People are betting not just on cryptocurrency. Where, where did the Hodl thing go? Right. People are, people are now gambling as to what the price of specific cryptocurrencies will be 15 or even five minutes from the moment they make their investment. So yeah, it's like, hey, what's going to happen just in the next few minutes? We'll see. It's, it's, it's, it's essentially like putting money on red or black on roulette. Right. It's, that's exactly what, exactly what you're doing.

[Matt]

And it's like, it's even worse than the crypto Bros. Which are, it's like the peanut gallery that hangs out with the crypto, bro. Yeah, it's like another layer of degeneracy.

[Joel]

It's not true believers in that way. Right. It's like true speculation. It's utterly insane. And so now you can use polymarket to predict whether the price of Ethereum, Solana, Bitcoin, or whatever is going to be up in the next five minutes or if it's going to be down in the next five minutes, you just literally say up or down and then you make money or lose. It's just an insanely stupid idea to take this massively speculative asset and incentivize more speculation. Similar to making short term bets on the price of a barrel of oil. It's a completely ridiculous approach to trying to make money. I think we're going to see just a ton of people, Matt, lose money. Just like going to Vegas, the house always wins. The sites that are allowing for these bets, this trading, they're going to do well. They're going to make money. They want you getting addicted to making these stupid bets about what's going to happen in the next five minutes. But I think a lot of people who actually partake are not going to do so well.

[Matt]

That's right. Yeah. Let's talk more about crowds that we don't like to hang with. Joel. Let's talk about Ticketmaster and specifically their parent company, Live Nation. They are the worst. We've talked about them before. I'm sure folks are like, oh, I can't believe you guys didn't. Because this actually, this hit a couple, a couple weeks ago.

[Joel]

But then some of the text messages or the internal Slack messages got linked leaked this week. And I think that's what made me like, okay, we have to talk about it. I can't believe they were saying some of these things.

[Matt]

Yeah, like, like they're bragging about like stupid fans and robbing them blind essentially is some of the language, some of the internal emails, which is not good. And man, we are all in a bind when a monopolistic company is allowed to continue its reign of terror. But so essentially though, there is a Justice Department settlement with Live Nation and it didn't do a ton to curb its fees. There is a payout. There's a small part of me that has some hope because of how they structured this, where, I mean, they're no longer a monopoly.

[Joel]

Right.

[Matt]

And so basically some of these venues now if there is an outside promoter that comes in, they have the ability to choose a second party or third party, whatever. I don't know. Did I say that right? Second party is like you. So third party, somebody else to be able to sell up to half of the seats for that concert, which, I don't know, it feels just at least like cracking the seal on this sort of death grip that Ticketmaster and Live Nation has had on ticket sales even Having one other player I think has the potential.

[Joel]

Yeah, but if they can only for half the seats, what? I don't know. Like, is really anything going to change?

[Matt]

Theoretically it should, but in practice, will it? I don't know. I mean, so I'm not holding out too much hope, but I think it's a step in the right direction. We will see because the law, it's continuing, I think now up in New York because a bunch of states have rejected it. So we'll see if they continue to get penalized and forced to completely restructure and how they sell the seats at all these different venues at all these concert venues that they completely control.

[Joel]

Yeah, I know most artists are frustrated by Ticketmaster too. Like, was it Zach Bryan who had the All My Homies Hate Ticketmaster album and then uses Ticketmaster to sell all his tickets because there's no other game in town? So it's like everybody hates you, but there's nothing we can do about the fact that you run the entire game. It's like dealing with the mafia.

[Matt]

Yeah.

[Joel]

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That's policygenius.com struggling to see up close. Make it visible with Viz. Viz is a once daily prescription eye drop to treat blurry near vision for up to 10 hours. The most common side effects that may be experienced while using VIZ include eye irritation, temporary dim or dark vision, headaches, and eye redness. Talk to an eye doctor to learn if VIZ is right for you. Learn [e-mail] all right buddy, we are back from the break and we've actually got more to talk about when it comes to gambling. We've got the ludicrous headline of the week which is from the Times of Israel. Gamblers trying to win a bet on polymarket are vowing to kill me if I don't rewrite an Iran missile story. So this is kind of a continuation of what we've already been talking about, Joel. But this just takes it to another level because you can now make a prediction on anything under the sun. And by make a prediction, what we really mean is gamble. It is creating all sorts of knock on effects. And there's a journalist that's basically received harassing emails and even death threats for reporting about a missile explosion in Israel. $15 million was at stake in the form of polymarket bets against a missile hitting Israel on March 10 specifically, which is a totally, completely ridiculous thing to bet on. But the folks who stood to win try to coerce the journals into changing his reporting despite pretty clear footage that there was actual a missile strike.

[Joel]

They're making it sound oh, what? But no, the something else was hit and that's what caused the explosion. It wasn't actually the missile that caused

[Matt]

the explosion, the shrapnel from the missile.

[Joel]

And so he's getting all these disparate emails. It's awful, man. They're like, if you could just change this because now you're reporting, starting to get reported elsewhere and if this continues to happen, they didn't explicitly say this in the email, but they're gonna, they're like, we're gonna lose our bet, we're gonna lose our money. And so if we can just get him to tweak the language on this, then we can, we stand to win the cash. And then they got pretty furious that he wouldn't change it and so started to.

[Matt]

Well, it wasn't just threats. There's also, there's also folks I don't know if you saw too, that were offering him a part of their winnings as well. So if there's some folks, which, you know, the free market I do appreciate folks, some folks opting for the carrot, some folks opting for the stick.

[Joel]

It's pretty dirty.

[Matt]

Yeah. And it is dirty because it turns all of these folks, all these degenerates into the mafia in and of themselves. Yeah.

[Joel]

Another problem with these websites, and I think those problems are just going to proliferate. I was actually encouraged to see Arizona has sued Kalshi. They accused it of being an illegal gambling site, which it is. Duh, duh, that's what it is. We'll see how this proceeds in court though. And they're specifically, I think Matt, going for the loophole, gambling on elections is illegal in the state of Arizona. And the state's attorney general is alleging that Kalsheet is allowing citizens to gamble on elections in the state of Arizona, which they are. So, Arizona, we wish you the best of luck. And actually, Matt, Major League Baseball just announced that they're partnering with polymarket, so you can basically gamble on anything under the sun. In terms of baseball, I think they left a few things out because. But, I mean, this just makes me think that Pete Rose should probably be put in the hall of Fame after. I mean, just think Major League Baseball's like, let's go Poly Market. Come on. Like, is there nothing. Does anyone have any credibility anymore?

[Matt]

Nothing. Nothing is off limits. Yeah. I'm really actually curious to see where that lawsuit leads to, because online gambling is illegal in a lot of states, and so this could be the first of many lawsuits to come. And we'll see if the likes of Kalshee end up making it through all of this. Let's talk about insurance, Joel, because State Farm is apparently using drones to assess the homes of its customers. Right. You just picture somebody in the car on their phone or device, whatever, and you hear like a. Out the window looking for anything that's messed up on their house. And then those customers are then getting letters in the mail telling them that they've got to make these costly repairs or else. And a State Farm drone took pics, found roof damage which they said needed to be addressed within 30 days. It's going to cost that individual $20,000. Roofs are not.

[Joel]

They're not cheap. True.

[Matt]

And this isn't honestly all that new because insurance companies, they've been using people in order to drive by, take a picture at the home, and in order to assess damage, send notices, things that they don't like.

[Joel]

I've had that happen to me before. Right.

[Matt]

Where? Have you had any recently?

[Joel]

No, it's been a while. But where they come by and they're like, hey, address this tree branch. Hey, address this.

[Matt]

Yep. Make sure the tree branch isn't touching the house.

[Joel]

You remember the first house I lived in and it had a parking pad, but without the.

[Matt]

Yeah, I remember.

[Joel]

But you. It was like, literally it was one parking pad off the street, and there was a drop from the parking pad to the rest of the driveway. It was super dangerous. Right.

[Matt]

So just.

[Joel]

It's hard to even describe it.

[Matt]

Just to paint the picture for folks, this lot that the house was on dropped away from the road significantly.

[Joel]

Yeah.

[Matt]

Like, it was very steep. And so picture a fairly level parking pad, but Then after the parking pad stops was like a two, two foot drop.

[Joel]

Oh, probably a foot.

[Matt]

Yeah, yeah. Like enough to totally over your car.

[Joel]

It's like total. And so the insurance company was like, hey, you need to put a, you need to put a parking bumper, concrete bumpers, and then something else. Right. And so I literally, I did the cheapest thing I could. My neighbor had a concrete mixer. We put down a little bumper and then I got one of those.

[Matt]

You're lucky to. Marty had that. That was his name.

[Joel]

Right.

[Matt]

I remember that guy. You're lucky that, that he had a concrete. That's not something that people normally do. No, I know that people normally have on hand.

[Joel]

We created like a wood form for it and we, we poured the concrete.

[Matt]

That's how you do it, man. But like, I get it.

[Joel]

If I'm the insurance company, I probably like, that's like a real risk for me if the homeowner doesn't address it. So this is the kind of thing, like, I get it, but this is like the next step. I think people feel maybe like their, their privacy is invaded because the drones flying over their head and they weren't

[Matt]

aware of it and realized too. I mean, a lot of times if they see anything, they're just going to flag it and tell you to fix it.

[Joel]

Sure.

[Matt]

I've had instances where I've said, hey, this actually isn't a problem. And I've taken photos of what they've alleged and they're like, okay, we're good. But then I've also done that and they're like, no, no, you need to fix that. So like, this is another case for learning how to get handy with some of these repairs. Because I could have paid. And we, we talked about this on the show. I could have paid someone hundreds, if not thousands of dollars to show up at this property, get the ladder, get up on the roof, see where the woodpecker damage is and all the fascia, you know, where it's busted. You know, they called it wood rot or something like that. But it. Pull out the wood putty, get it on there, let it dry, sand it, paint it. Like it's fairly simple stuff. It's just kind of annoying, but totally worth it. Based on where we've seen home insurance rates going in Georgia, we have seen prices increase 24% since 2023, which is the ability to stay locked into a low cost home insurance provider. Dude made that well worth it. Well worth the savings of hundreds, if not thousands of dollars every single year moving forward. So it's the kind of thing now

[Joel]

you ignore that letter, I guess, at your own peril.

[Matt]

Yeah. And not to mention it just. I don't know, you take pride. You should take pride in your property. And with this being an investment property just means a nicer place for. For that renter to live in. Not to mention the ability to charge an appropriate amount of rent for that slightly nicer place.

[Joel]

So homes are expensive these days, man. Which means saving up a down payment can feel impossible to a lot of people. And the more you save, the more home prices go up and you just kind of can feel. I think it has felt for a lot of wannabe homeowners like this carrot that keeps getting pushed off you. Remember, get the greyhound track or whatever. Not that I go watch greyhound races, but there's the rabbit that they put out in front of the greyhounds but they can't ever catch them or whatever. I think it feels like that to a lot of homeowners. I guess it's worth mentioning that there are home buying assistance programs that exist all across the country. And it's worth seeing what sort of funds might be available near you. You might not have to save up this down payment all by yourself. Down Payment Resource is actually a cool tool that can help with that. We'll link to it in the show notes. And they report that more folks are eligible for these programs right now, even people who make a decent salary. So one example they shared is that where my wife is from, Memphis, Memphis offers a down payment assistance. Offers down payment assistance to households with twice the local median income that purchase in designated areas of the city. So even if you make good money, depending on where you're trying to buy, you might get pretty significant down payment help buying in certain segments of the city. In San Francisco, you can earn more than $200,000 and still qualify for down payment assistance. Granted $200,000 in San Francisco, still not a lot of money is my guess. Matt. It's a very expensive place to live. But most resources are of course targeted towards people making a lot less than that. But whether it's for you or for a friend, I guess it's just worth mentioning that these programs exist. And we should totally link to that down payment resource tool in the show notes as well.

[Matt]

Totally. Yeah. That was over at Washington Post. So these assistant programs exist. Let's talk about something else that is helping new homeowners save money on housing. And that is the attractive ARMS portion of our show today. So ARMS are attracting buyers in larger numbers. Given the widening Gap in rates on, on adjustable rate mortgages versus 30 year fixed mortgages today. So there's still hesitancy I think for folks to consider an arm because essentially the housing market blew up in the aftermath of the Great Recession.

[Joel]

But arms were seen as one of the culprits or at least one of the riskier endeavors that really harm people.

[Matt]

I think folks were thinking about arms and they kind of go in the same sort of category as like the subprime mortgages that were being lent out there, but they are today just way safer than they were back then. They're more conservative, they got better guardrails. Today the interest rate gap is close to 3/4 of a point between a 7 year ARM and a 30 year fixed rate mortgage. If you can get a low rate locked in for seven years is pretty attractive. But even beyond that, 10 or 15 years, I think that makes it really worth considering. A lot of folks are offering these products and yeah, it's worth mentioning because I mean, adjustable rate mortgage, it's not the best bet for everyone who is listening right now, but it's definitely worth considering. It's definitely worth learning the pros and the cons. You should run the numbers, you should take into account how long you're going to plan to stay in that home. That's another huge factor that I think folks overlook because you think you're. I don't know, I think this is how I thought at least when I was a first time homebuyer, even a second time homebuyer. But I thought, oh, I'm going to be here forever. But if you look at historical averages like you look at the past 20 years and people move every six years more recently, that's been climbing up. It's climbed up. Yeah, yeah. So today it's 12. It's 12 years. And that has a lot to do with the fact that people are locked in, they've got those low rates and

[Joel]

it's staying against their will, bringing the

[Matt]

housing market to a standstill. Yeah, but that is worth thinking through as hopefully mortgage rates come down and also what you plan on doing with that home too. Right. Because if you know that, oh, this is, you know, this is just a starter home, but we would love to be able to transition this into an investment property. Okay, well that's going to be more of an argument for possibly getting something locked in for the long term because who knows what rates are going to look like in 7, 10, 15 years from now.

[Joel]

And there's a little bit of additional risk.

[Matt]

Right.

[Joel]

Because you're like, well, if I do hold on to longer than I planned onto the home longer than I planned, and the rate resets and rates are high, and so my rate goes up, yeah, I could see how it's worth factoring in that risk. But you also have to factor in the much better rate and terms you

[Matt]

might get for at least a decade in the meantime.

[Joel]

Yeah, think through that as well, what you're giving up on the front end. I got my first arm, Matt, a 10 year, 10 one arm. When we bought our most recent house when we moved. We've had it for almost four years. I'm not nervous. For four years. It's paid off for four years. It's been great, like six years.

[Matt]

No, it's not paid off for four years. It'S a winner.

[Joel]

And, you know, six years from now, I don't. Maybe I'll have be singing a different song, start looking around.

[Matt]

We'll see.

[Joel]

Maybe I'll be a little sad because. Or frustrated because my rate's about to climb and, man, I really should. But I'm gonna at least be thoughtful in the interim. And maybe, maybe it means a refinance before we get to that point. I don't know. But at least a lot of options. Yeah, but like, I think arms are, because of that significant gap, more attractive for. Should be more attractive for a lot of home buyers right now.

[Matt]

Yeah, Everyone deserves a second chance, even arms. Joel.

[Joel]

That's right. What about Wells Fargo?

[Matt]

Have they redeemed their image?

[Joel]

I think they're doing a little bit better, but I still think a lot of. A lot of the bigger players are

[Matt]

slowly, I don't know, they're making some changes, climbing their way out of the holes that they dug for themselves.

[Joel]

Let's talk lastly, Matt, maybe about spring sports because baseball, lacrosse, like, all the kids are playing all these sports. My kids are not playing lacrosse. Although one. One would like to. Just too much of a time commitment. But. And I'm all forgetting you're doing baseball though, right? We're doing baseball. We're loving it, we're having a great time. But as any parent knows, youth sports can be expensive. They can get expensive really quickly. I have friends, like, driving to all parts of the Southeast, trying to get their kids to different events. It sounds a little intense. That sounds like the worst part. Yeah, that sounds like the worst part.

[Matt]

I don't think I want to do that.

[Joel]

But even the gear itself. Right. Can be really expensive. And the. The Wall Street Journal had a profile of Dick's sporting Goods which has become like the go to place, I think for, for families. They have also they have like, I think have batting cages in there, rock climbing walls. So it's kind of like a fun place to go hang. And then you end up buying all their gear and spending way too much. So Dick's is like highly valuable now because of the rise of youth sports. Baseball is their biggest moneymaker, which makes sense because colorful cleats, expensive bats. Like it ain't cheap to outfit somebody for baseball.

[Matt]

A lot of gear.

[Joel]

Yes. Yeah, I get it. We're not trying to throw shade on Dick's sporting goods. But consider alternatives to the professionalization of kid sports in your life. Because it can cost a ton in both time and money. And your kid truly does not need $125 cleats to play baseball. Makes me think Matt, one of my, my good buddies who's coaching my son's team, he was in a nice part of town recently, meeting somebody and he went over to the Goodwill. He's like, dude, I got a great bat for like five bucks, man. This is like, this is probably a hundred dollar bat for my kid. Yeah, Goodwill, man.

[Matt]

That's how you do it.

[Joel]

Our bat game from Goodwill, it's not

[Matt]

as nice as his, but you gotta go, oh man. Another a buddy of mine talked about. Yeah, the nicer part. I know what part of town you're talking about, but it's where he works for the most part. Even though they live in more affordable parts of town, where we live. But that's where they got so much art. They found originals. And he's like, we've got so much art from that. You know, there's some nice Goodwills that they go and hit up. But I think, yeah, that's great advice. And I'm thinking about this and I wonder how much of us as parents overspending on kids sports. How much of that is just the transfer of the spending that we are used to spending on them as they're babies. You know, like when they're babies there's all this gear, there's all this stuff. You get like the well rated car seats. Oh, I'm gonna gotta get a bit crib. Oh, I gotta get the bob stroll. Like you get all of these things that go into. Oh, gotta get the monitoring camera and I don't know, temperature, does it have infrared? You know, it's like all this gear and kids get older and you're buying, then you're buying them toys, maybe like a gaming console. And I think a Lot of times it just feels like, pointless. You're like, why are we getting all this? But it feels like you have to. And then parents go to a dick's and you see all this cool stuff and you think, oh, gleaming on the shop. I know what all this is for dicks is they're selling potential, Joel. You know, like that's what they've got out on display. The ability for your kid to be awesome at whatever sport it is. And so I think it's very easy, us as parents to kind of transfer easily transition from spending on baby stuff and just going right down that path to spending. Yeah. However much on colorful cleats.

[Joel]

And let's, let's be honest, I definitely know this is true for my kids, but I'm pretty sure it's true for everybody listening to and their kids. Your kid's not Michael Jordan. Your kid's not the next Mookie Betts. You don't need to spend money on them like they're going to be the next superstar. They can have somebody listening their kid. Actually maybe one person listening and more power to you. You should spend all the money you want, I guess, because they're going to make it back in lifetime earning. But for the most part, not true. And guess what? Getting the cheaper cleats, getting the used cleats on ebay like I did for Ezra. The. It's, it's not going to inhibit their ability to enjoy the game and have a great time and learn what they need to learn. Yep.

[Matt]

I love it. Plus, it builds grit. You know, like you can't hand everything to them.

[Joel]

That's right. On a silver platter, a used Batman. It's like it's grit building.

[Matt]

All right, that's gonna be it for our Friday flight today. We hope everyone has a fantastic weekend. We'll see you back here on Monday. Look for show notes up on the [e-mail] and Buddy, that's going to be it. So until next time, Best friends out. Best friends out.

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