Loading summary
Callie Cox
You're listening to an iHeart podcast.
Joel
Almost all of us have got old stuff that we should be tossing out, but an old 401k? Make sure it keeps working for you. A Fidelity Rollover IRA has no account fees or minimums to open. An easy to follow rollover process makes it simple to get started in under 15 minutes. Plus you'll have access to a rollover specialist.
Matt
That's right, whether you've switched jobs or are just organizing your finances. Learn more@fidelity.com rollover consider all your options and the applicable fees and features of each before moving your retirement assets. Fidelity Brokerage Services, LLC Member NYSE SIPC Breaking News T Mobile Network outperforms expectations in all sectors because T Mobile helps keep you connected from the heart of Portland to right where you are on America's largest 5G network. Switch now. Keep your phone and T Mobile will pay it off up to $800 per.
Joel
Line via prepaid cart.
Matt
Visit your local T Mobile location or learn more@t mobile.com keepandswitch. Up to 4 lines via virtual prepaid card will have 15 days qualified unlock device, credit service port in 90 plus days device and eligible carrier and timely redemption. Required card is no cash access and expires in six months. Tired of paying too much for wireless? Red Pocket Mobile says enough same networks way less. Cash plans start at just 10 bucks a month with no price increases ever. And you get coverage on any major 5G network. So you keep your phone, you keep your number and and you keep your freedom. No contracts, no credit checks.
Joel
Plus, Red Pocket's two minute care means fast tech support from a real person. More and more folks are making the switch to Red Pocket Mobile. Get started now at redpocket.com redpocket.com, your new ultimate cell carrier. Welcome to how to Money. I'm Joel.
Matt
I'm Matt.
Joel
And today we're talking practical and beautiful investing advice with Callie Co.
Matt
Yeah, so it is time to dive in deep on investing during turbulent times, Joel. And we are fortunate to be speaking with Callie Cox, who is a part of the Ritholtz wealth management team. Before that she we met her back in the day when she was with Ally Invest Etoro after that and now she's also the author of optimisticalie, her newsletter where she seeks to deliver sane and rational advice to everyday investors. Just like us. Just like you and me, man. She works tirelessly day in, day out to make investors feel confident and informed about their money. Callie, we've got a lot to talk about when it comes to investing, folks don't realize that investing, it seems like all we talk about, but not to the level at which we're going to talk about it today. I don't know. We're really going to get into it with you and I'm excited for this conversation.
Callie Cox
Yeah, I'm psyched too. Thanks for having me.
Joel
Of course. Yeah. You eat, breathe and sleep at week. I don't know. We think about a lot more than just investing, but so we're curious to pick your brain because we're in interesting times right now. First, though, we have to ask you what your craft beer equivalent is. What do you explore, John, even though obviously you're investing solidly for your future?
Callie Cox
Well, I told y' all and so the audience knows. I've thought a lot about this, but I, my husband and I spend a lot of money on food and wine, which is a pretty typical answer. I feel like you get a lot of foodies, but, you know, with us, we became obsessed with wine after we went to Napa in 2021. Of course, during the pandemic, a lot of us had nothing better to do than drink. So as y' all probably leaned more into stats.
Matt
Bore that out.
Callie Cox
Yeah, yeah, yeah, it's true, it's true. As you guys leaned more into beer, we leaned more into wine. And after Napa, we were hooked. So we're not, we're not serious wine collectors, but we do like exploring different wines and we love just, you know, eating out and, you know, exploring all the different restaurants in Charlotte. And I love to cook. I really like getting quality product and, you know, cooking at home too. So I feel like that's our niche, you know, where we lean in when we're leaning out on other things like cars. I drive a nine year old Camry. It's not. There are areas that we lean into, areas we lean out of.
Joel
Best music to our ears.
Matt
I love it.
Joel
I will say the wine habit, while it can be very expensive, similar to craft beer, it's not as bad if you're drinking it at home and you're making your own food. Right? I mean, if you're going out, the markup on bottles when you visit a nice restaurant is significant. So, yeah, drinking that bottle at home is going to save you money.
Callie Cox
Yeah, that's absolutely true. There are even, and I know this differs from state to state, but there are even bring your own beverage restaurants, bring your own wine restaurants, and we have a few good shops in Charlotte where you can go and buy wine at retail and they'll serve it with you, serve it to you with your dinner.
Matt
But then you get charged that corkage fee. And that just, to me, feels like a total slap in the face. They're like, sure, you can bring your fancy stuff from home, but we're going to charge you to open it.
Callie Cox
You got to find a place that doesn't have a corkage fee. I know they exist because they're in trouble.
Matt
So those exist.
Joel
This is why Callie brings her own corkscrew, keeps it in her purse and just pulls it out as needed.
Callie Cox
I will open it myself.
Matt
She's got a little spout. They're like, ma' am, what's that spout coming out of the bottom of your bag there?
Joel
Frugal or cheap?
Matt
She's filling her glass up under the table. Callie, what is one winery? Next time I happen to go to Napa or Sonoma, that we gotta check out Kirkland Signature that you're a fan of.
Callie Cox
Okay, so Chappelle. Very good. They're a national distributor, so I can find a few of Chappelle's bottles in Charlotte. So that's an accessible one that also has a really good tour. Really good wine. We also went to one called Barnet. It's in the mountains of Napa. And mountain wine has a more, like, smoky, almost like. I don't even know how to Scotchy kind of scotchy, like, earthy, earthy taste to it. Because the soil is a little different, I think the grapes have to struggle more. But Barnett has an incredible wine called the Rattlesnake, and it's a little more expensive. It's definitely a splurge for us. But the gosh, the mouthfeel. Oh, I hate saying that. The mouthfeel and the experience of it is just really, really complex.
Matt
Okay, you're speaking my language. A winery up in the mountains. That sounds incredible.
Joel
Struggling grapes.
Matt
And I literally wrote that down for some time in the future when we might head out there. But, you know, I didn't mention your title there. At Redholtz, you are the chief market strategist. What is. Like, what do you actually do? And I've also got to think that regardless of what you do, that your job might be a little more difficult in times like these.
Callie Cox
Yeah. So I get a lot of questions about that, and I totally understand them, because there are strategists in every industry. And, you know, strategists, we do strategy. What does that even mean? I try to describe my role as a resident market nerd type role. And of course, I Think about markets a lot. I eat, sleep, breathe investing. I know our portfolios inside and out. I talk to clients all the time about how their money is invested and how market moves are affecting their money. But in a way, it's also a strategic comms role. I'm telling a story, for lack of a better phrase, about what's happening in markets and why that matters to everyday investors like you and me, and thinking about how to tell that story to a wide range of audiences.
Joel
At one point recently, you write a blog, which is part of where you do some of the storytelling, and you wrote, practical advice is a good foundation, but everybody needs a bit of beauty. That's just interesting to think that, oh, I need beauty inside of my investment portfolio. I'm curious why. What do you mean by that? And what does beautiful investing look like?
Callie Cox
Well, I got thinking about this because I read a blog from Morgan Housel so I can't take credit for this. I can't take credit for, for all of this. But Morgan wrote a really great blog about magazine architects or architects that create these beautiful buildings, ones that you see in magazines and Architects Digest, you know, ones that we all drool over because we don't have to live in them, but they're really not functional. You know, they don't have. They don't have the size of the garage that you need to, like, actually, you know, keep your car there, or you don't. You don't have the right functionality to actually live there. And I think the concept of that is true for a lot of different areas of our lives. And one area that people never talk about that for is investing. Because all we get is stay invested, stay the course, put your money in an index fund and hold it, hold it until you die type advice. And, you know, I agree with that. I think it's hard to make the argument against it, but I also think that there's just an ocean of nuance between staying invested and, you know, you know, kind of being haphazard with your money. And that's really important. That's something we talk about a lot with our clients here. The fact that, you know, you have to stay invested, you're investing for decades, but we want to make sure that you stay invested. And there are things that you can do that kind of go against that traditional logic. But I also think about it in my own world because, like, yes, I talk about the benefits of index funds, but even I have targets in my portfolio. I sell according to those targets. And, you know, I am a little bit More active. Active. Even though I'd consider myself a long term investor looking at retirement, what that.
Matt
Does, it just allows room for humanity. And like kind of going back to the Morgan Housel analogy, like, yeah, the reason those look spaces look cool is because they don't actually. They couldn't actually house somebody in real life or the practical needs of a family with a toddler running around with sharp edges everywhere, whatever it might be. And I think what you're speaking to is the ability to maybe be bit flexible when it comes to our portfolios as a. As opposed to completely grinning it, bearing it, never checking it, because it's really hard to ignore all the news that's popping up on our phones that we hear people talk about. On that note, can you speak to the current state of things? I guess the, all the volatility that we felt, it feels like we lived a couple of years just in the past few months. Can you catch us up to speed on, let's say the Trump, the initial Trump bump, but then the subsequent deflation, why all this has happened?
Callie Cox
Yeah, well, how much time do we have here? Where do I start?
Matt
Seriously?
Joel
This is a podcast. So many hours.
Callie Cox
Yeah, yeah, we can go as long as it takes. Right. So I guess where we'd have to start is in the middle of last year. And I think it's important to understand where the economy was before we headed into this year and had to digest all these policy changes. But actually you'd probably have to back up to Covid, but I'm not going to do that. Interest rates are actually quite high right now. They've come down a little bit since the middle of last year and we've been in before this year we were in this spot with the economy where, you know, the job market was incredibly resilient. We had a year or two where, you know, if you're an employee, you had employers begging for you to join their companies because demand was way too high. You know, if you weren't switching your jobs, then you probably had a lot of negotiation leverage at the table. And you know, that that leverage, that employee power fell more and more and more, but at a gradual pace because the Fed put the brakes on the economy. Interest rates were super high, mortgage rates were super high. We were all thinking about saving instead of investing and borrowing. And that really put us in a place in the middle of last year where the Fed. And when I say the Fed, I'm talking about the interest rate nerds up in D.C. that basically pull the levers on interest rates. The Fed looked at the economy and they said, okay, we think there's a risk to going too far here. Interest rates are putting a lot of pressure on the economy and we're seeing that pressure bleed into the job market. So the Fed started bringing rates down. The job market got a little bit better at the end of the year, but the economy was in a bit of a fragile state. And then we moved into this year and, you know, we've all seen the headlines since then, Right. A lot of tariff policy that's been put out there, speculated, put into place, walked back, put back into place. A lot of snip, snap decision making. And businesses, both businesses and Americans are watching this happen and they're like, I have no idea what the future holds. So instead of investing, instead of spending my money on big ticket items like cars and houses, which by the way, still costs a lot of money because interest rates are still high, they've decided to stop. And I think that, I think the pivot point, the big Pivot Point was April 2, Liberation Day, where we got the list of pretty wide ranging tariffs for a lot of different countries. And there was a lot of back and forth there, but that's really when the stock market started dropping like a stone. It was down about 10% up to that point. But in the week after that, we saw historical swings, like biggest swings that we've seen since the COVID crisis and the financial crisis, as people really tried to process what huge reciprocal tariffs could mean for their lives, their portfolios, their businesses. And that's kind of where we are. We're still processing it.
Joel
Yeah, the reciprocal tariffs that weren't really reciprocal and that have been pulled back, but not fully rolled back. I guess I'm curious too. Do you think this new political approach and new policy priorities, do you think that is mostly what we're seeing or. It feels like there was a lot of talk about an overinflated stock market even before Trump took office. Do you think part of what's happening to the stock market is a natural pullback that occurs when stocks are overvalued?
Callie Cox
I think it's a little bit of both. And I hesitate to say that stocks are overvalued because I think it's really hard to judge that. So when you're talking about valuation, I'm going to make an assumption. But you're probably talking about the price to earnings ratio or where earnings are expected to be over the next year and where a stock or an index is trading relative to those earnings, right?
Joel
Yeah.
Callie Cox
Okay. So PE price to earnings ratio is a really. It's a good way to judge how stocks are valued, but it's hard to say. I'm trying to think of the right way to say this. It's hard to say where they should be valued because that price to earnings ratio can price in. A lot of hope, you know, a lot of dreams about AI, a lot of optimism about the future.
Joel
And value's in the eye of the beholder a little bit.
Callie Cox
Value is in the eye of the beholder. You know, there are designer shirts, there are shirts that you get off the rack at Walmart. They're made with the same fabrics, but you're paying different prices. Right? Same thing, the price to earnings ratio. And in most environments, a higher PE is actually okay. It's okay to dream. It's okay to think about where tech stocks could be going in the future. Just because the PE is high doesn't mean the market's about to crash. The problem is when you start to see economic cracks, right? And that's when the optimism starts to fade. That's when you should probably expect the PE to start falling. Because. Because again, expectations for the future start to fall and then actual earnings, if it gets bad enough, will start to fall as well. And that's the moment that we're in right now where, yeah, you're probably looking back and saying, okay, the stock market is probably richly valued or too high for what could be coming. But yeah, what you brought up is actually really important too. The stock market sells off in healthy economies. This in a way is kind of part of the process. And we're coming off two incredible years in the stock market. I mean, 20% back to back gains in the S&P 500.
Matt
That's true. We're not going to talk about tariffs the entire time, but if you want, I feel like our listeners have had enough. I feel like I've had enough, to be honest, because I feel like so.
Joel
Much of it, they haven't had enough with us.
Matt
I feel like a lot of it is overblown. And at least at the time of this recording, we haven't yet feel like businesses are looking ahead because they're looking at quarters at a time and especially small businesses and how they're impacting, affected by tariffs and the foreign availability of goods that they need as inputs to run their businesses. Right. But as consumers, a lot of folks haven't seen significant increases when it comes to, when it comes to the prices. And that was one of the biggest things that the market was Reacting to. Do you feel that the whole terrorist thing is overblown or is it just. It's more complex and it's just going to take longer for it to trickle through the system before we start seeing the headlines, before we start seeing the lines of folks lining up at stores.
Callie Cox
That kind of thing, I think it's happening. So Liberation Day was April 2, so there's been about four weeks between that initial announcement, Trump with the poster, and us recording today. That's about the time it takes from a ship to move to go from China to the Port of Los Angeles for those goods to be unloaded and finally make it to their final destination. That stuff takes time. That's a long journey. So what we're seeing right now is that port volumes are coming down, which is concerning. That means that there actually is some. There are inventory changes that are happening on the back of these dramatic tariffs, especially coming from China. And look, once that's happening, it's going to roll through the system and you're going to see it in some way or another. Empty shelves, higher prices, mix of the two. That is anybody's guess. What worries me is that we're starting to see indications through company earnings reports and through more Bird's eye View macro reports that a lot of companies feel comfortable passing along those prices, which means you and I, when we go to the store, we're going to pay higher prices for those goods. The companies aren't just going to eat that cost.
Joel
Yeah, yeah. I'm curious, too, how much of an impact, like foreign backlash against tariffs, like, what could the ramifications be there? We've already seen Canadians saying, I'm not vacationing in the United States anymore. And just far fewer people from just north are coming down and it's hurting our tourism industry. And you wrote something about, I think foreign consumers can essentially cause a lot of pain for corporate America. Do you think those boycotts from other countries because of the way we're acting, could have other ramifications, too?
Callie Cox
I worry a lot about this because I think it's hard to quantify the eventual impact. But we know the impact could be big. And that's actually why I wrote the Boycott America newsletter. I wasn't saying boycott America, but what I was trying to do is put some numbers behind how interwoven foreign consumers, foreign tourists, foreign investors are in our markets. And the travel, the travel part is interesting because we've already started to see data and really interesting color from travel companies on how foreign bookings are down. So we heard it From Delta. I believe we heard it from American. In the past few weeks, they've seen bookings come down, especially international bookings, foreign tourists coming into the US And I saw a report from a Canadian travel consulting company and like, look, this is one report, but it's backed up by a lot of color that we're seeing or that we're hearing. But this one report from the Canadian travel consulting company said that Canadian bookings of travel into the US are down 70% year over year, which is a huge number. It's a scary number. And I don't take one piece of data and run down a rabbit hole with that. I don't think that's smart for anybody to do. But it should at the very least make you think a little bit about the second order consequences or the second order effects of what could be going on here and in markets. I don't know if a lot of people know this. I certainly wouldn't know if I didn't work in finance. But, but foreign investors have been major buyers of stocks and bonds over the past several years, primarily because we have the biggest and best, most innovative companies in the world. Everybody wants to invest in Apple. Right. But on the bond side, we also have an incredibly deep and incredibly rich and volume heavy marketing, government debt. It's called the treasury market. And foreign investors have been turning more and more to Treasuries to hedge their portfolios and to get a nice stable source of yield. So we have to step back and consider that some of that, maybe all of that could be at risk here.
Matt
Yeah. And so much of that, it's a slow burn. I think that's what I'm coming to terms with. Between the news, the headlines, Trump making changes to terrorists or to following through or pulling back, and the stock market, it's incredibly reactionary. And we see day, I mean, not even day to day changes, like minute to minute, hour by hour sort of changes. But when it comes to some of these, higher. And what you said is totally true, Right. We've seen the reports of the empty cargo ships showing up at port because they're like, all right, we got to keep moving. And at some point, if there are no goods, we might be bound to see higher prices, less availability of goods on the shelves. But from an investing standpoint, what should we do? Like, how should folks respond to the different pieces of news that they come across? Because kind of going back to the beginning of our conversation, you're talking about having beauty, your investing being beautiful. I feel like a part of what you're saying there is to take into account the fact that there are going to be things that you're going to want to. Want to react to and to allow for some of that humanity to play out in our investing. Would you recommend that?
Callie Cox
Yeah, I think that's a good place to start. And I just want to add something else on that. Practicality versus beauty comment. A lot of client conversations we have and a lot of conversations I'm having with friends and family right now are what to do. And usually the options that they see in front of them are to sell everything and run for the hills or buy everything and stay invested. Because that's what the spreadsheet is telling me to do.
Matt
Right? Extreme measures.
Callie Cox
Extreme measures. But in a way, people don't realize that they're extreme. Because I see. Because I see different flavors of this every day, I can say that it's extreme. And by the way, if you feel that way, it's okay. You're human. Your brain is working as it should. It's supposed to alert you of risks. But as an investor, you have to take that in and understand how you should react in this moment based on how you feel in your gut, but also based on what you're going to do with your money and how much time you have in front of you. And it's this really tough, tangled mix of reality and feeling. And that's why finance is really hard. But to go back to your question, I think a lot of people have that middle lane and they don't realize they have it. So if it means, you know, looking at your portfolio, saying that you're investing for retirement, and that means that you have a few decades ahead of you, then, you know, maybe it means raising a little bit of cash, filling up your emergency fund, making sure you feel comfortable with where you are in case you lose your job. Because unfortunately, job loss is the reality of economic crises. That's one of the hallmarks of why growth slows down and people stop spending money. And, you know, trying to put yourself in a place where you're comfortable, but that. But you don't abandon your future self at the same time. Because, like, again, if you go back to the math, it makes a lot of sense to buy when the stock market is down 10 or 15% from highs if you have decades ahead of you. But that's not so easy in practice. And I certainly don't want to assume that it is easy with anybody I'm talking to, because I'm a human, too. I understand how it Feels.
Joel
So you say you're a human, which I fully believe you when you say that. And actually, you've alluded to this in some of your recent blogs, too. You said you admitted to being a little scared. And you also have said, like, hey, I'm kind of a type A person means I want more control. I'm curious how that mixture of being a little fearful, because especially given how much you've been around markets and how much history you've read about, you know, stock market gyrations, like, hey, you're pretty young, Cali. Like, why are you fearful? And how is your type A self responding to what's going on? Like, what are you doing?
Callie Cox
You just painted me so well. Type A and anxious about everything. Both of those comments are absolutely true. And I'm not. Look, I don't hide that. And I think Wall street sometimes falls into this trap of, you know, hiding the fact that they're humans because, okay, I get part of it. Like you, you're managing a lot of money. You don't want to lead on that you. You might have an ounce of uncertainty of feel an ounce of uncertainty in yourself. I get why people move that way, but I try to approach these situations from a moment of empathy. And if we're being honest here, like, I don't know what the future holds, I go down the rabbit hole sometimes a lot these days. Not so much on the investing side, but, you know, on the policy side, on the, you know, living life as a human side. Where could this go? Especially with the extremism of the headlines and policy that we all hear about. But I'm lucky that I have the investing background. I know how markets work, and I know how important a process is. So I'm not your listeners. So I want to be clear when I say this. I'm not making a recommendation, but I know that I am investing for retirement. And I'm in my 30s, so I have decades ahead of me. And even if you're in retirement and you're living off your portfolio, yes, this moment feels scarier. But you're probably investing for decades, too. God forbid you're dying the day that you retire. I hope that doesn't happen to you. So I think, you know, as somebody who leans back on numbers, I really try to sit back on the fact that I have a lot of time ahead of me, that if I do feel anxious, then I need to make sure my financial house is in order. So that can cull a little bit of my feeling there. And look, I leave it up to the numbers. I have targets for stocks, bonds and crypto in my portfolio and if my allocations move out of that target, I adjust. I also have pulled forward a few like monthly investing deposits that I was going to make because I know that when stocks are down 10, 15, 20%, then that's often a good buying opportunity, even if it doesn't feel good at the moment. So there are little changes you can make on the margins. And yes, raising cash is okay on the margins if you don't go too far. But there are little changes you can make to tailor your portfolio to you and how you feel that don't necessarily doom, you know, years down the road.
Matt
That's that type A Cali stepping up to bat right there.
Joel
Overcoming anxiety.
Matt
Cali oh, and going back to Morgan House. Not to make this all about him, but like that's like the beautiful architectural home, but also there's a little bit of mess in there. You know, like there's a little bit or there's a random piece of art that doesn't quite fit the rest of the of the house because like that's the kind of thing that allows for there to be more of that sort of messy day to day living. It doesn't, doesn't have to be all stoic and perfect and personal and yeah, emotionless. But we've got more sane and rational investing advice to get to with. With Cali Cox in particular, we're going to talk about some of the things that some younger investors should keep in mind. We'll get to that more right after this.
Jack
Jack, our show is called the Best One yet, but can you introduce it as a Tinder bio? Yeah, this is Jack. That was Nick. We're best friends and ex finance guys who host the Best One yet, the daily podcast merging business news with pop culture. Yep. And we have a puppy actually on our podcast we'll tell you how Starbucks borrowed a growth hack from Ludacris. Or that blondes showing their natural brunette hair is an early indicator of a recession. Or why Hot take coming Apple's next product should be an AI smart toilet. We worked on Wall street, sold a media startup to a tech company and have done 1500 episodes of this daily show. So whether you're launching a business, aiming for that promotion or just want to be the best person at brunch, start your morning with our three business stories in 20min. And if you don't use one of our takeaways in your next job interview, we'll give you that puppy. It's a write off the most interesting people follow the best one yet on the Wondery app or wherever you get your podcasts. You can listen ad free right now on Wondery.
Matt
So Joel, one of the major reasons we have a personal finance podcast is because it can be so difficult for folks to know what their money is doing or for them to know how it is that they're spending their dollars. They don't realize that they've got these financial blind spots like eating out or spending on food delivery. They don't know the full impact that online shopping is having on their ability to save and invest for retirement. Well, Monarch Money acts like your personal cfo. It gives you full visibility and control. It acts as a financial command center for all of your accounts, all of your investments, your personal goals that you.
Joel
Have for your life. I feel called out here Matt, because I went into the back end of my Monarch Money account recently. The biggest surprise? How much money we spent at Chick Fil?
Matt
A.
Joel
It's a problem that needs to be remedied, but at least I know that now. And and you get insights big and small when you partner with Monarch. Without a clear financial picture, your financial dreams truly can feel out of reach. And Monarch makes managing money simple even for busy lives. By the way, it's the top recommended personal finance app by users and Experts with over 30,000 five star reviews.
Matt
You know what man? Get control of your overall finances with Monarch Money. Use code how to money@monimalmoney.com in your browser for half off your first year. That's 50% off your first year@monimalmoney.com with code how to Money what does the.
Joel
Future hold for business? Ask nine experts and you'll get 10 answers. Will we have another bull market in 2025 or we're going to get a bear market? What about inflation? Will it continue to calm or will higher prices remain sticky? Wouldn't it be cool if someone could invent a crystal ball that would give us some foresight?
Matt
Well, until then Joel over 41,000 businesses have future proofed their business with NetSuite by Oracle, the number one cloud bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR into one fluid platform with one unified business management suite. There's one source of truth giving you the visibility and control you need to make quick decisions. With real time insights and forecasting, you're peering into the future with actionable data. When you're closing the books out in days, not weeks, you are spending less time looking backwards and more time on what is next. Our business is really small, but if we needed netsuite. We would be pumped about the time, the cost savings that it provides. Whether your company is earning millions or even hundreds of millions of dollars, NetSuite helps you to respond to immediate challenges and seize your biggest opportunities.
Joel
Speaking of opportunity, download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine Learning at netsuite.com howtomoney the guide is free to you at netsuite.com howTomoney that's netsuite.com howtomone all right, we're back. Still talking with Callie Cox, talking about marketing markets and just kind of what's happening right now from an economic perspective and the impact that's having on personal finance decisions. Kelly, I'm curious too. Like, how do you think the current climate, conditions and economic uncertainty should impact the personal finance decisions we're making? I'm thinking about in particular something as big as buying a house. And I know that, like Zillow has said, hey, we think that home prices are actually going to decline this year. And that might be welcome news from someone who's been trying to buy a home and has been unable to. But then they're like, but wait a second, my portfolio is down 10%. I feel like I have less buying power now. So maybe it's not a win win. I don't know, how are you thinking or how are you advising people? Think about some of those bigger buying decisions right now.
Callie Cox
Yeah, that's a really good question. And of course, it all boils down to your own situation, your own goals. I know you're going to hear that everywhere, but I just want to emphasize that that's really important. I don't know how much money you have in your bank account. I don't know why you're investing your money. Those facts are really important when you're making these decisions. The first thing I'll say there is that interest rates sit at the heart of a lot of these decisions. And that's why a few minutes ago I was talking about the Federal Reserve and you know, where they're setting their policy rate. It's not the Fed's policy rate doesn't directly impact the mortgage rate that you're going to be paying on a new house, but it has a pretty heavy hand in those mortgage rates that you're seeing. So to a certain extent, you have to know where interest rates are and where they're going. And right now, interest rates are still quite high, which means that you're getting really nice savings rates on your savings account. And if you're not, please Switch banks. I know you can, I know you can get a good rate there. But at the same time, what you're giving up is the fact that borrowing has become more expensive and we have these 7% mortgage rates and 10% auto loan rates that you have to contend with. So know that in this moment, from the financial side, it may not be the best moment to step out and buy a house, but then again, that's a personal decision. So you just have to know the risks that you're taking on when you're, you know, making these huge life altering decisions. And unfortunately, the Fed isn't on your side. They might be down the road, but the problem is the Fed will probably, is that the Fed will probably cut interest rates because we start to see some weakness in the economy and that weakness could affect you in one way or the other. So I would just take a step back, you know, understand what you want to do in the next one year, two years, three years, write it down on a piece of paper, keep yourself honest there and prepare for an environment where it does cost a little bit more and you can't, you know, rely on a steady income. I mean, I hate to be, I hate to paint the worst case scenario here, but I think it's important to make these decisions with all options in mind.
Matt
Yeah, I think that's wise. Yeah, we can't. I thought you were going to say this, but we can't bank on those rate cuts. Were you to go ahead and buy now while balances are a little bit higher, assuming that those rates, rate cuts will come and you have the ability to refinance.
Joel
Sure, yeah. Dropping interest rates, it feels like, have been promised by people, especially in the real estate industry for the last couple years and they haven't materialized.
Matt
They're coming. They're coming. It's like. Well, actually, we haven't. Not yet. Buy the home.
Joel
You can always refinance. Or can you?
Matt
Let's get back to investing, Callie, because I want to talk about the younger generation. There have been a lot of folks who have become more accustomed to being on their phones where they're trading regularly on apps like Robinhood. Do you think that this is a positive trend overall or are you worried that they're going to get the wrong idea about investing? They're going to get burned because of the available. Like on one hand, the availability is obviously good, the democratization of investing. But on the other hand, talk to us about maybe the false pretenses in which a lot of younger folks are investing.
Callie Cox
Yes. Unequivocally this is a good thing. And I believe pretty strongly in this. And of course, I have a brokerage background, so I am a little biased here. But when. Look, the history of our country is built, has been built on walls around capital markets investing. You and I, of course, we didn't have cell phones before the 2000s or so, but you and I investing without having to call up a broker wasn't possible until the late 1990s. There was that natural moat where it was incredibly hard to invest. And some people didn't have the ability to invest because a lot of this talk was happening behind closed doors. We couldn't be further from that environment these days. I mean, gosh, you said it. But you can get on your phone, swipe, swipe, swipe. You buy a stock. I think that's a good thing. I think investing should be accessible to everybody. And I think every American should have the power to build wealth the way that they want. It's your money. I'm not going to tell you what to do with it. If you bring it to Ritholtz, I can help advise you on it. But ultimately, you do what you want to do, and you should have the power to be able to do what you want with your money. And we're there. We are at a point where I think a lot of investors are learning hard lessons, which is okay, sometimes that's the best way to grow and learn. But I'm glad that investors are jumping into the sandbox and trying out different markets, especially when they're younger, when they can afford to take on this risk, and when they can start to feel better about investing larger sums of money. I always said this at Ally and Etoro, and I firmly believe this, too. Sometimes the best way to learn how to invest is to invest. It's dipping your toe in the water. It's opening that brokerage account, getting over that initial hump, maybe throwing $10 in, putting it in a stock, putting it in a fund and seeing where it goes. I really think learning is an experience that people underestimate. And a lot of Americans, especially younger investors, are getting that experience right now.
Joel
Doing the thing, even if it's done imperfectly. I think you're right. I think that is overwhelmingly good. And we're seeing more. I've seen more evidence that investors, young investors seem to be understanding investing a little bit more, especially when you see the market drop. And I feel like what I'm seeing in response is less panic selling and more buying the dip. How do you think about that what's your take on that approach? Are they taking the Warren Buffett being fearful when others are greedy, being greedy when others are fearful sort of adage. Or are young individual investors becoming a little more sophisticated?
Callie Cox
They're definitely becoming more sophisticated. This goes back to the learning by experience. Maybe selling into a stock market drop and then realizing that price rebounded on you, maybe feeling that pain more acutely through options. I think investors have learned a bit of a reflex over the past decade or so, which I think can get a little tricky because I don't think that same reflex will work in this moment. But I think investors are aware of what can happen, especially with the Fed being as powerful as it is in markets these days. I don't necessarily think that's a bad thing. We talk about staying invested and how hard it is to stay invested all the time. Younger investors are out here saying buy the dip and then going into markets, going into markets without a second thought. But honestly, if you have decades ahead of you as a 20 something year old, then you're doing the right thing. I just think you have to be a little careful about that. And again, it's your money, you do whatever you want with it. But I don't think in a high interest rate environment when inflation is a problem and when unemployment is a real risk too. I don't think by the debt works as well as people think it will.
Matt
I feel that. I feel like Callie might be like a closet libertarian. Joel. I hear a lot of her saying, you be you, you do you. It's your money.
Joel
Don't reveal her political affiliations. Mask.
Matt
No, obviously personal responsibility, vastly important. We're talking about taking risks though. And like when you are investing, that is inevitable. But what are some of the bad risky moves that you are seeing folks make? Especially we're kind of focusing on younger investors here. I don't even want to say younger cohorts. It's just online folks because sometimes they're older folks who obviously spend way too much online. But it seems like that there tends to be a following of different trends which can lead to poor outcomes. So maybe that's the question. What are some of the negative risky trends that you see more folks jumping on these days?
Callie Cox
Well, I want to talk about the social aspect first because I don't think the social aspect is that bad either. We do lots of different things for many different reasons. I think it's okay to invest because your friends are investing and you want a sense of community. Again, that's my brokerage background. Speaking. I used to work for a social investing platform, but I truly don't think that's a problem. If you want to learn and build community through your money, it's your money. You do whatever you want with it. I think the trouble comes when younger investors or investors of any age come in and they learn a hard lesson and then they just don't trust capital markets ever again. And I see that happening for investors of all ages. I mean, gosh, we have brokerage customers that I talked to that really wrestled with this. And what I hate about that is piles of data have shown us that capital markets are the way to build wealth in America. That is a fact that you can't argue against. And sometimes you just have to lean in and kind of ride the coattails of America's best companies. Sometimes that's the easiest and most accessible path for you. So I think education is really important here. I think it's smart to remind people that stocks go up and down. You have different layers of risk when it comes to single stocks, and you're magnifying those risks sometimes with options. People need to be equipped with how they're investing. But ultimately, I think it's a trust thing. If people start to lose trust in capital markets, then you're going to have a lot of problems in society. And I worry that we're moving toward that point.
Joel
So you just said people need to be reminded. Stocks go up and down. Do you think in. In one sense, we as a population investor population got used to kind of, hey, markets go up. Hey, this is just guaranteed returns that far exceed what I'm going to get inside my high yield savings account. It's. It's kind of like a high yield savings account, but on steroids. So I just need more and more stock exposure and that maybe those people. And when you look at the last 15 years, returns have been better than average. We have had fewer downturns, like an extended bull market. Did we just get used to something that isn't the norm?
Callie Cox
I don't think we necessarily got used to it because we had the great financial crisis. We had the COVID crisis. We had a painful, painful 2022 where it felt like no market was going up. And in reality, a lot of tangible investments were going up with inflation, but stocks and bonds weren't working and people felt that. So I wouldn't necessarily think that's the case. I think what it comes down to, at least over the past decade or so, has been a lack of options. Looking at a bank account, seeing that, and I'm talking about pre 22 here. Looking at your bank account, seeing that you're getting paid nothing on your savings account, looking at the fixed income market, seeing that you're getting paid 2% to lend money for 10 years down the road and wondering how you build wealth. And I'll add, too, looking outside of markets into a corporate world where wage gains were pithy, were awful because the incentives were all off after the great financial crisis. And a lot of companies were, they felt like they were in survival mode. They weren't necessarily investing back in their employees. They were paying more attention to their shareholders, especially as that worked over time. Picture a millennial investor. Picture you and me sitting here wondering what our options are to build our wealth and seeing the stock market and basically nothing else.
Joel
Then, yeah, it feels like the only game in town.
Callie Cox
Yeah, exactly. And that's to a T what Wall street was saying back in the mid 2010s, stocks are the only game in town. And they were right. I think we're seeing the other side of that. And again, like I said, not necessarily a bad thing. I think it led to some skewed incentives. But, yeah, we had to lean on the stock market. That's really what we grew up with in our teens and twenties. And to a certain extent, that's good because like I said, it's been really hard to invest for way too long. But on the other hand, I think now we have some options. Wage growth is finally healthy, especially for lower level jobs. We have bonds that are actually paying out yield. We have savings account rates that hover between 3% and 4% above inflation. And we're like, wow, this is a whole new world. I don't really know what to do with it, but I do know the stock market works, so maybe let me lean into that. And that's not always. That's not always a quick, immediate source of dopamine or, you know, help or gains.
Matt
Yeah, yeah, no, I get that. What do you have an opinion on? The fire movement? This is kind of a somewhat weird pivot, but I mean, I guess you mentioned the 2010s as well, and I'm just like something else that kind of was birthed in the 2010s. Makes me think of all the folks who are like, oh, the fire movement, financial independence, retiring early. Do you have an opinion there? Do you think that most folks who ascribe to the fire movement are equipped to handle prolonged downturns? You mentioned 2022, when basic, like, no market was doing well in 2022 the view towards work and being productive in society. I'd love to get your thoughts on fire.
Callie Cox
So I think the Fire movement is interesting. It's not a path that I'm going down. I love what I do. I actually find a lot of value in my work. It lights me up. I have a passion around it and I'm really lucky to feel that way. I think that there has been a little bit of a boost to that movement just because markets have done so well. And I'm not sure enough people realize the reality of living on your portfolio and how painful it can be when stocks are selling off and bonds are selling off, which unfortunately is the scenario that some of us are in right now. I generally advise against looking to extremes. I feel like fire is a bit of an extreme decision. And if it's a decision that works for you, that's great. I'm not sure it works for a bunch of different people. Even though we can all. I think at times we can all agree that it would be fun to retire and travel forever and, you know, live off of your portfolio.
Joel
It also might get old. Let's be honest.
Callie Cox
I worry about that.
Joel
Who can travel forever?
Callie Cox
I mean, like you said, I'm type A and anxious. I was in Costa Rica for a week and I had a great time. But towards the end, I was like, man, I really miss my normal life. I miss the routine. And I think a lot of people realize once they retire at any age that that routine and that sense of purpose is really important. I actually think coastfire is really interesting. I learned about coastfire about a year ago, and it's the movement where you don't retire immediately. But what you know is that you could live off your portfolio if you have to. If you didn't contribute any more to your portfolio and you had a retirement age ahead of you that you were aiming for. I think that's a really cool psychological hack. And I think it's more realistic for the majority of people who do learn about the Fire movement.
Joel
Do you think some of the people in the Fire movement maybe made rosy projections of future stock market increases based on historical realities, based on recency bias, and that maybe especially when you look at predictions from places like Vanguard and they're saying over the next decade, returns are going to be pretty tepid? Do you think some of those folks might find that the ways they assumed their portfolio would perform well, maybe it doesn't perform in that way, and they're left in a much more tenuous situation.
Callie Cox
I'm sure there's a little bit of that because, you know, we all make different assumptions. I don't love the forecasts that come out of the Vanguards and Goldman Sachs of the world where they say, you know, we think stocks will make X over the next 10 years. Like that's as good of a guess as me licking my finger and sticking it in the air and trying to tell you where the wind will blow. It's not. It is based on some math, but it's ultimately marketing. Right? It's ultimately getting an interesting opinion out there for an audience that you're trying to reach. That's all it is. It's not, it's not a great assumption to go off of. I don't know if you remember, but Goldman actually put out a report six months ago or so where they said that they think. And I'm not sure which stock index they targeted, but they said they think stocks will return an average of 3% over the next 10 years. And I had so many friends and family ask me about that report. I think because there was a tangible number in it and it was Goldman, it got a lot of news pickup. But I was like, are you kidding me? What makes you think that even Goldman has a crystal ball and can see into the future and where markets are going? I think the 2000 and tens are the perfect example of why forecasts are. Forecasts are ultimately bunk. They're good at teaching you how to think differently. Sure, they're good at spurring discussion, but I think you can fall on the wrong side of forecasts that are too high and forecasts that are too low. Generally, it makes sense to be a little more conservative in your own portfolio. You can't assume. You can't assume 20% returns forever. More and more, I hope that happens, but I don't think that's very likely. But at the same time, I don't think it serves you to go too conservative or to listen to the more pessimistic forecasts around that, because nobody really knows.
Joel
Don't listen to the pessimists. Listen to optimistic Callie. I like that.
Callie Cox
That's right.
Joel
We have just a few more questions to get to with you, Callie, including one with. So let's talk about stagflation, a term we're hearing more and more about. We'll get to that right after this.
Jack
Jack, our show is called the best one yet, but can you introduce it as a Tinder bio? Yeah, this is Jack. That was Nick. We're best friends and ex finance guys who Host the Best One yet the Daily Podcast Merging Business News with Pop culture Yep, and we have a puppy. Actually on our podcast, we'll tell you how Starbucks borrowed a growth hack from Ludicrous. Or that blondes showing their natural brunette hair is an early indicator of a recession. Or why Hot Take Coming Apple's next product should be an AI Smart toilet. We worked on Wall street, sold a media startup to a tech company, and have done 1500 episodes of this daily show. So whether you're launching a business, aiming for that promotion, or just want to be the best person at brunch, start your morning with our three business stories in 20 minutes. And if you don't use one of our takeaways in your next job interview, we'll give you that puppy. It's a write off the most interesting people Follow the Best One yet on the Wondery app or wherever you get your podcast. You can listen ad free right now on Wonder Plus.
Joel
What does the future hold for business? Ask nine experts and you'll get 10 answers. Will we have another bull market in 2025 or we're going to get a bear market? What about inflation? Will it continue to calm or will higher prices remain sticky? Wouldn't it be cool if someone could invent a crystal ball that would give us some foresight?
Matt
Well, until then, Joel over 41,000 businesses have future proofed their business with NetSuite by Oracle, the number one cloud ERP bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR into one fluid platform with one unified business management suite. There's one source of truth giving you the visibility and control you need to make quick decisions. With real time insights and forecasting, you're peering into the future with actionable data. When you're closing the books out in days, not weeks, you are spending less time looking backwards and more time on what is next. Our business is really small, but if we needed netsuite, we would be pumped about the time the cost savings that it provides. Whether your company is earning millions or even hundreds of millions of dollars, NetSuite helps you to respond to immediate challenges and seize your biggest opportunities.
Joel
Speaking of opportunity, download the CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at netsuite.com howtomoney the guide is free to you at netsuite.com howTomoney that's netsuite.com howtomone so.
Matt
One aspect of owning your own business that some folks don't think about is setting aside money for taxes. It's a hassle if you forget about it, but you just gotta think ahead Some you gotta make those quarterly estimates, then it's no big deal. Similarly, trust and Will makes creating your will easy and time efficient. Gets you thinking ahead, which is good. But then you can focus on other important tasks. Their website is incredibly easy to use and it's tough to beat knowing that I have the peace of mind, that my wishes are secure and that Kate and the kids are taken care of.
Joel
Yeah, I love knowing that trust and will is designed by attorneys, then it's kind of customized by me. Each will or trust is state specific, legally valid and customized to your specific needs. Think about how difficult this necessary task used to be. Well, estate planning, it's easier than ever these days thanks to trust and will. It's so easy to get started and it's been used by hundreds of thousands of families and counting.
Matt
You know what, buddy? Uncomplicate the process with trust and Will. Protect what matters most in minutes@trustandwill.com HowToMoney and get 20% off. That's 20% off@trustandwill.com HowtoMoney.
Joel
We'Re back from.
Matt
The break with Callie Cox. Callie, something you said before the break. You said it can be painful to live off of your portfolio. And I think one of the things you're speaking to there is like the reality of knowing that the numbers point to a fairly rosy future even with conservative estimates. Right? Like not even the most aggressive expecting the most aggressive returns. There's a difference between knowing that, but then the lived reality of seeing, you know, maybe objectively dumb decisions being made on a when it comes to policy and how that impacts our government. Is there some sort of, I don't know, like rule of thumb or some sort of test that folks can put on themselves to help them to analyze whether the decisions that they're making in regards to their portfolio is more of an emotional knee jerk reaction versus them trying to reevaluate the new, basically the new rules of the game, right? Like there's a difference between just, oh, like without even looking at anything, just completely reacting versus saying, okay, well, actually maybe I can't handle this type of risk and what I need to do here is rebalance my portfolio or lean a little bit more in a conservative direction. Is there a way to know whether or not somebody is making the moves that they're making for the right reason?
Callie Cox
I feel like I could talk about this specific question for an hour plus, but I'll try to boil it down because this is actually giving me an idea for a newsletter.
Matt
All right.
Callie Cox
I think it Depends. The worst answer ever. It depends on who you are. And I think the test is different for everybody. But some general guidance I would give around that is how quickly you make a decision. So let's say a bad headline crosses the tape, another tariff headline, and it feels painful. And you say, ah, I feel like I should sell stocks. If you feel that reaction immediately, you probably can't trust it. And I know that's a hard thing to say because I want. I want people to feel like they can trust themselves. But there's a difference between a reaction and a sound decision. And when both of them are overlapping or when the sound decision comes quickly, I think you need to question it at the very least. Again, I like to lean on numbers. So when I have a Nicky type of anxious reaction, I always go back to my numbers. I remind myself that, okay, my portfolio is this size. X percent is in stocks, and this is why. X percent is in bonds, and this is why. X% is in crypto. This is why. And that usually rights my path. But I know that I eat, sleep, breathe this stuff, so it's a little. It's a little bit easier for me. I think about this a lot. The other thing I'd throw out there is there are certain processes that work for different people, but the process is the important part. When you have those feelings, knowing how to center yourself. So even if it's like touching the table in front of you or sipping a cup of hot tea or touching grass or something, knowing how to get back into yourself and then calmly evaluating what's going on is really smart. And knowing what that process is for you is very important. So you can get to a point that you can think through this sound decision that you're about to make. And again, it's not easy. But everybody talks about having an investing plan. This is when an investing plan is really important. I invest when I get my paycheck and maybe not outside of it, although I think you could be a little fluid with that. And I will put X percent of my money into stocks, X percent of my money into bonds. X percent of my money into crypto, if that's suitable for you. And knowing when you'll eventually need that money so you can make a plan to take it out.
Joel
So we're hearing the term stagflation thrown around a lot these days, which is a throwback to the 1970s when none of us were born.
Callie Cox
Are you saying you know how old I am?
Matt
You referred to us as millennials, and we are barely millennials. Callie so that tells me that you are younger than us, you're even younger than us.
Callie Cox
That's true. I did tip my hand there.
Joel
So stagflation is this thing that only our parents remember. But is that something you're truly worried about? Is that something we can or should be preparing for? How would we react?
Callie Cox
I am worrying about it more. I wouldn't say that. I'm certain it will happen. I'm certain nothing will happen. Nobody knows what the future holds, but I worry. So I'll explain what stagflation is first and then I'll talk about where we are now. So stagflation is this economic phenomenon where unemployment is going higher, people are losing their jobs, prices are also going higher. So inflation and economic growth is stagnant. It and those three conditions together are really hard to reach, especially these days. But when you do get there, like in the 1970s, it can be incredibly painful because when we think about the economy, we think about it in terms of affordability. How much money am I making? What can I afford in a period of stagflation? You fall behind so quickly when it comes to affordability, especially if you lose your job. And if prices are moving higher, you can't afford things and you're not making money. That's the worst trench to be in. We're not broadly, we're not there yet right now, and I think the bar is really high to get there for a few really nerdy reasons, but mainly because the Fed exists and it has this dual mandate, this two part job where it has to watch inflation and it has to watch the job market. And I think the Fed's hands are tied right now. They're not sure what side to focus on more. But if we do get further into this and there is some economic damage, I think the side to focus on will become abundantly clear and they'll be able to do something about it. Something that a lot of people don't know is that the Fed's dual mandate actually came out of the 1970s. And the stagflation that we saw in the 70s that ultimately went into the 80s and was kind of smothered out by Paul Volcker. Congress actually passed an act after that that set the Fed's dual mandate. So we have this natural stabilizer there that wasn't there in the 1970s. So I say all this to say stagflation, I think is still far away. You might feel inklings of it here and there, but the true conditions of awful stagflation that Affects a large swath of the population are still far away and I think that there are some counterbalances.
Matt
Nice. Awesome. Well, Callie, thank you so much for taking the time to speak with us. Everything from trading on your phone to stagflation, retirement, finding calm touch. I like how you're just like even touching the table in front of you.
Callie Cox
I like sipping hot tea. That's actually why I brought it up. When I feel anxious, I get a cup of tea and I just sip it and I meditate and I think sounds corny, but that's what I do.
Matt
No, I think like what you pointed.
Joel
To earlier, the only thing you need to add to that is knitting.
Callie Cox
I think now you're saying I'm old.
Joel
Okay, then you're my grandma.
Matt
You will be ready for retirement at that point, Cali. But that's how you. But no, seriously, we really appreciate you taking the time and of course we'll point folks over to your substack optimisticali. But yeah, thank you for hanging out with us today.
Callie Cox
Yeah, thanks for having me. This was a lot of fun and hopefully the next conversation we have will be a little cheerier.
Joel
Awesome. Thanks, Callie. All right, Matt, good convo with Callie. And yeah, a lot of good information.
Matt
Hopefully just all about investing.
Joel
I know. And hopefully just some. A calming effect for the people out there who are worried about the future. And let's be honest, it's hard not to be at least somewhat worried about the future.
Matt
A little bit anxious.
Joel
Yeah.
Matt
I wonder how much hot tea Callie's drinking these days. She's like, oh, I've noticed my hot tea intake has spiked significantly over the past three months.
Joel
Exactly. But still, there's a lot of reasons to be calm and to be excited about the future too. So what was your big takeaway from this combo?
Matt
Well, I guess speaking to that it's all about. And something she said was to find comfort with whatever plan it is that you as an individual have come up with. And she, you know, she said, write it down. She said, she said having hot tea.
Joel
That'S a part of her plan.
Matt
Like, I would love to see that written down somewhere as part of her, you know, her 12 step process to talk herself down from the ledge. If she's feeling a little bit anxious about the markets and how her investments are doing, but you find that comfort, but simultaneously, you don't abandon the overall plan that you know is going to lead to your financial future. Like, it's a. It's like our own personal, forget the Fed. This is our own personal Dual mandate that we have to somehow find a way to navigate, to find comfort, to not freak out at every headline or tweet or truth that gets pushed out there. To be able to stay the course and maybe be able to respond thoughtfully, but at the same time, knowing that over the long haul, this is. This is what we got to do.
Joel
Yeah, yeah, yeah. I like that a lot. And that involves having a plan, right? So it's a good idea if you don't have one, to have one and to write it out so that you know what to do first. That you're not just, like, knee jerk making bad decisions because you're emotional. And I get it. It's hard not to be emotional sometimes. So you need the plan to help you avoid the worst impulses. I think my big takeaway was when she was like, I don't really pay attention to those predictions. To the pessimists. And it's really hard when there's, like, a name like Vanguard or Goldman Sachs.
Matt
Attached to it and you're like, J.P. morgan, right? Jamie Dimon again. Here he goes. All right.
Joel
Yeah. And all I can think sometimes when I read those is, like, there's a pool of highly paid people who wear much nicer suits than I do, because I literally have one suit that I don't wear very frequently. And my assumption is, like, they know more than I do. I'm an idiot by comparison to the hive mind that they've got going on in these fancy New York office buildings. But that's not even true. That's not actually true. It feels like that's true, but it's not. And so those predictions, Pessimism also sells. It's easier to trust somebody who has a dour prediction than someone who's like, I think things are going to be great. You just sound like an idiot when you say, I think things are going to be great. But the truth is, so much of the time, especially when it comes to markets, things are pretty good. So maybe we should listen to the optimists like Hallie a little bit more. Less to the pessimists. It's not that bad things can't happen, and we should be prepared for those things. But it's also. So, hey, maybe don't assume that only bad things are in our future, because there's a lot of good stuff coming around the bend, too.
Matt
That's right, man. All right. The beer that you and I got to enjoy during this episode was called a Pineapple Vanilla Milkshake IPA by Whistlehop Brewing Company. What did you think of this one, buddy?
Joel
I'm gonna say this one was okay. It was okay.
Matt
Yeah, I'm with you.
Joel
Yeah.
Matt
This one was not my favorite.
Joel
I picked this one up at the Physical Brewery in Asheville. The Physical Brewery. Really cool. A great place to take kids.
Matt
I've been to this place.
Joel
Yeah, they got little soccer nets and a little mini miniature golf course.
Matt
So it's called Whistle Hop. And the whole place is train theme.
Joel
Yes.
Matt
So there's literally a train car that you can get up in. And we actually had the most fun sitting up.
Joel
What's it.
Matt
I'm sure there's some train nerds out there where you, like, climb up the little ladder and you're kind of sitting on the second floor looking out the window.
Joel
The kids love that.
Matt
Did y' all get to sit up there?
Joel
Yes. I don't know what that's called, but.
Matt
Yeah, they loved it. It's a cool feature of a mode of transportation that we no longer take advantage of. But the.
Joel
Unless we go to Europe.
Matt
But the actual beer.
Joel
Beer left something to be desired. And I had a good sour beer when I was there that I enjoyed. This one, I just didn't enjoy as much. And I guess the pineapple maybe felt.
Matt
A little fake to me, a little heavy handed. And the milkshake IPAs is a style that I've never been the biggest fan of. Personally. I was trying to go into it with an optimistic forecast, but. But I was proven wrong. It happens.
Joel
It happens. You can't win them all. And still cool brewery. Definitely worth visiting.
Matt
Oh, absolutely. Absolutely worth checking out.
Joel
And good beers. I enjoyed my other beers, but this one, not my fave. All right, that's gonna do it. For this episode, we'll link to Callie's blog and some of the other resources we mentioned on this episode up in the show. Notes@howtomoney.com youm know it, buddy.
Matt
So until next time, Best friends out. Best friends out.
Joel
What frustrates you about your cell carrier? Endless price increases, Bad coverage. Customer service from a robot. Red Pocket Mobile gives you coverage from all three major cellular networks. And customer service with a real person who answers your call in two minutes.
Matt
Yeah. Best of all, plans start at just $10 a month with no price increases ever. With Red Pocket, you'll get everything you want from a cell carrier without the expense. Visit redpocket.com for more. That's redpocket.com Redpocket, your new ultimate cell carrier.
Jack
In a world of economic uncertainty and.
Callie Cox
Workplace transformation, learn to lead by example from visionary C Suite executives like Shannon Schuyler of PwC and Will Pearson of iHeartMedia. The good teacher explains the great Teacher inspires.
Jack
Don't always leave your team to do the work that's been the most important part of how to lead by example.
Callie Cox
Listen to leading by example executives making.
Jack
An impact on the iHeartRadio app, Apple.
Callie Cox
Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
Jack
Why is a soap opera Western like Yellowstone so wildly successful? The American west with Dan Flores is the latest show from the Meat Eater Podcast Network. So join me starting Tuesday, May 6, where we'll delve into stories of the west and come to understand how it helps inform the ways in which we experience the region today.
Matt
Listen to the American west with Dan.
Callie Cox
Florida Stories on the iHeartRadio app, Apple.
Matt
Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
Callie Cox
You're listening to an iHeart podcast.
Podcast Information:
In episode #983 of How to Money, hosts Joel and Matt engage in an insightful conversation with Callie Cox, Chief Market Strategist at Ritholtz Wealth Management. The episode delves deep into practical and aesthetically pleasing investment strategies amidst today's economic turbulence. Callie brings her expertise to the table, offering nuanced perspectives on market volatility, policy impacts, and personal finance decisions tailored for both seasoned and novice investors.
[02:58]
Joel: "Callie, we've got a lot to talk about when it comes to investing. Folks don't realize that investing seems like all we talk about, but not to the level at which we're going to talk about it today."
[03:14]
Callie Cox: "Well, my husband and I spend a lot of money on food and wine... we became obsessed with wine after we went to Napa in 2021."
Callie Cox introduces herself as a dedicated market strategist with a robust background in brokerage, having previously worked with Ally Invest and eToro. She is also the author of the newsletter Optimisticalie, which aims to deliver sane and rational advice to everyday investors.
[10:17]
Callie Cox: "Interest rates are actually quite high right now. They've come down a little bit since the middle of last year... the Fed put the brakes on the economy."
Callie explains the current economic landscape, highlighting the Federal Reserve's role in adjusting interest rates to manage inflation and support the job market. She outlines how high interest rates have shifted consumer behavior towards saving rather than investing or borrowing, leading to reduced spending on big-ticket items.
[10:17] – [20:23]
Callie Cox: "The big Pivot Point was April 2, Liberation Day, where we got the list of pretty wide-ranging tariffs for a lot of different countries. The stock market started dropping like a stone."
The discussion shifts to the recent implementation of tariffs and their immediate effects on the stock market. Callie details how reciprocal tariffs, especially those involving China, have led to significant market swings and potential long-term impacts on both businesses and consumers, including higher prices and reduced availability of goods.
[18:16]
Callie Cox: "Foreign investors have been major buyers of stocks and bonds over the past several years... some of that could be at risk here."
Callie expresses concern over the decline in foreign tourism, citing a 70% year-over-year drop in Canadian bookings to the U.S. This reduction not only affects the tourism industry but also has broader implications for U.S. markets, as foreign investors play a significant role in purchasing American stocks and government bonds.
[31:48]
Callie Cox: "Knowledge your own situation, your own goals... write it down on a piece of paper, keep yourself honest there."
Callie emphasizes the importance of personalized financial planning, especially in volatile times. She advises listeners to assess their own financial situations, set clear goals, and understand the impact of high interest rates on major purchases like homes. Callie suggests maintaining a balance between saving and investing, ensuring that one’s financial house is in order to mitigate risks such as job loss.
[34:07]
Matt: "Do you think that this is a positive trend overall or are you worried that they're going to get the wrong idea about investing?"
[34:52]
Callie Cox: "Investing should be accessible to everybody... learning is an experience that people underestimate."
Callie advocates for the democratization of investing through mobile apps like Robinhood, highlighting the benefits of accessibility and the opportunity for younger investors to gain hands-on experience. She acknowledges the risks but believes that experiential learning can lead to more informed and confident investors.
[37:40]
Callie Cox: "Younger investors are out here saying buy the dip... if you have decades ahead of you as a 20-something year old, then you're doing the right thing."
Callie discusses how younger investors are becoming more sophisticated, often adopting strategies like "buying the dip" during market downturns. She notes that while this approach aligns with long-term investing principles, caution is necessary in the current high-interest-rate environment to avoid overexposure to market risks.
[45:04]
Callie Cox: "I generally advise against looking to extremes... Coastfire is really interesting."
Callie critiques the FIRE movement, suggesting that it may be too extreme for many individuals, especially given current economic uncertainties. She introduces the concept of "Coastfire," where investors aim to have their portfolios grow sufficiently to support retirement without needing to make aggressive moves, offering a more balanced approach to financial independence.
[47:26]
Callie Cox: "Forecasts are ultimately bunk... It is based on some math, but it's ultimately marketing."
Callie warns against relying solely on optimistic market forecasts from entities like Vanguard and Goldman Sachs. She advises investors to adopt a more conservative and flexible approach, acknowledging that while positive returns are desirable, they are not guaranteed.
[56:57]
Callie Cox: "Stagflation is this economic phenomenon where unemployment is going higher, prices are also going higher... it's the worst trench to be in."
Callie explains stagflation—a combination of stagnant economic growth, high unemployment, and high inflation—drawing parallels to the 1970s. She discusses the Federal Reserve's dual mandate to manage both inflation and the job market, expressing concern over the potential onset of stagflation and its severe impact on affordability and employment.
[57:17]
Callie Cox: "I think the Fed's hands are tied right now... but the bar is really high to get there for a few really nerdy reasons."
While acknowledging the fear, Callie believes that true stagflation is still far away due to the Federal Reserve's proactive measures and the economic indicators currently not aligning with stagflationary conditions.
[54:18]
Callie Cox: "How quickly you make a decision... if you feel that reaction immediately, you probably can't trust it."
Callie advises investors to recognize the difference between emotional, knee-jerk reactions to market news and sound, informed decisions. She suggests taking time to process information, relying on a well-defined investment plan, and using personal strategies (like sipping hot tea) to manage anxiety.
[56:49]
Callie Cox: "The process is the important part... knowing when you'll eventually need that money so you can make a plan to take it out."
Sticking to an investment plan is crucial for long-term success. Callie underscores the importance of setting clear targets for asset allocation and regularly rebalancing the portfolio to stay aligned with financial goals despite market fluctuations.
Joel and Matt wrap up the conversation by highlighting Callie's key insights:
[60:36]
Joel: "It's all about having a plan... knowing what to do first."
The episode concludes with an emphasis on the importance of having a robust financial plan to navigate uncertain economic times, ensuring that listeners are equipped to make informed and rational investment decisions.
Note: The above summary focuses solely on the substantive discussions between the hosts and Callie Cox, excluding advertisements and promotional segments to maintain clarity and relevance for readers who have not listened to the episode.