Podcast Summary: Hoy por Hoy

Episode: El Abierto | El PSOE se acerca al PP y comienzan las negociaciones de Paz

Date: October 6, 2025
Host: Àngels Barceló
Main Contributors: Cristina Monge, Carlos Navarro Antolín, Antón Losada, Guillermo Lerma, Belén Barreiro, Pablo Morán, Nuria Garrido, David Junquera

Overview

This episode of "Hoy por Hoy" focuses on two interconnected themes:

1. The narrowing gap between Spain's main political parties (PSOE and PP) according to a new 40dB poll for El País, and how electoral sentiments are being influenced by both domestic (corruption, party strategies, regional politics) and international (the war in Gaza and Spain’s response) events.
2. Updates on the negotiations for a ceasefire in Gaza between Israel and Hamas, with a special lens on Spanish public opinion and government stance, and coverage of breaking political news in France and health policy scandals in Andalusia.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Latest Poll: PSOE Catches Up with the PP

Timestamp: 00:22 – 11:49

• Poll Results: The 40dB poll shows the gap between PP (Partido Popular) and PSOE (Partido Socialista Obrero Español) narrowing to a technical tie.

  • PP leads by just one point, having lost ground for a second consecutive month.
  • PSOE gains 1.7 points, currently at 29.4% (up from previous months), while Sumar and Podemos lag far behind.
  • Vox remains strong with 16.7% but appears to have hit a ceiling.
  • By blocs: PP+Vox surpass 47%; PSOE+Sumar+Podemos are at 39%.

• Shifting Voters:

  • Vox's strength comes from faithful voters: 84% would repeat their 2023 vote.
  • PP is losing nearly 15% of its 8 million votes to Vox.
  • PSOE's uptick is attributed in part to fewer voters defecting to PP and re-engagement of previously undecided or unmotivated voters.

Quote
"El escenario, por tanto, sería prácticamente de empate técnico entre los dos principales partidos."
— Guillermo Lerma, [03:05]

2. Analysing the Poll Results: Why is the PSOE Rising?

Timestamp: 03:07 – 11:49

• Belén Barreiro (CEO, 40dB):
  • Voter retention: PSOE has drastically curtailed “fugas” (losing voters to PP); currently under 4%, compared to 10% at its peak.
  • Corruption scandals (“casos de corrupción”) seem to have minimal effect on PSOE popularity, possibly due to voter desensitization or more pressing current affairs (notably Gaza).
  • The government’s connection with public sentiment on Gaza is cited as a key explanation for PSOE’s resilience and recovery.

Quote
"La impresión que da es que ha sido la conexión del gobierno con la ciudadanía en este asunto tan doloroso lo que ha podido producir esta subida del PSOE."
— Belén Barreiro, [04:12]

3. The Gaza Factor: Emotional and Political Impact

Timestamp: 08:15 – 11:01, 48:03 – 50:33

• Public Perception:
  • 56.7% of Spanish respondents view Israel’s actions in Gaza as genocide (a marked drop from over 80% in a prior Elcano poll).
  • 7 in 10 Spaniards are emotionally affected by Gaza; 3 in 4 experience feelings of horror, indignation, or sadness.
  • A significant portion of right-wing voters (PP and Vox) also acknowledge the scale of Israeli violence, which partly explains PP/Vox poll dips.
  • The political impact: Spanish voters are influenced more by emotional responses than policy positions on foreign affairs.

Quote
"El impacto emocional es enorme. A partir de ahí, en los posicionamientos políticos sí se ve el efecto de la división de los propios partidos."
— Belén Barreiro, [08:58]

4. Roundtable: Deeper Political Analysis

Timestamp: 11:49 – 24:08

Antón Losada:

• The contest for “most voted party” is open; any outcome is possible in hypothetical elections.
• The left’s main problem is not right-wing strength, but the demobilization and fragmentation leftward of PSOE.
• Corruption scandals no longer have the same political weight; "menudeo de la corrupción" (smaller-scale corruption) lessens the impact.

Quote
"La ventaja de la derecha tiene más que ver con la desmovilización y la crisis a la izquierda del PSOE que con la propia fortaleza de la derecha."
— Antón Losada, [13:06]

Cristina Monge:

• Emphasizes the importance of trends over short-term shifts (still far from campaign season).
• Highlights gender: up to 25% of women remain undecided, potentially decisive.
• Notes that both emotional and legal definitions shape attitudes to Gaza, influenced by party narratives.

Carlos Navarro Antolín:

• Observes that PP's continued rightward drift and lack of coherent messaging may be undermining its attraction to centrist voters, pushing some back to PSOE.
• PP's “centralidad” (pivot-to-center strategy) perceived as fading.

5. Territorial Readings and Regional Political Strategies

Timestamp: 24:12 – 33:12

• Potential for Early Regional Elections: PP regional “barones” (leaders) in places like Extremadura and Aragón are considering moving up elections to manage Vox’s rise and internal budget struggles.

  • Some advocate a “superdomingo” with simultaneous elections in multiple regions for national momentum.
  • Local dynamics are complex; e.g., in Andalucía, the personal brand of Juanma Moreno may be stronger than the PP label.

• Strategic Risks: Echoes of past “superdomingos” may repeat mistakes, as left voters mobilise against expected PP-Vox coalitions.

6. PSOE Corruption Allegations – "The Case of the Envelopes"

Timestamp: 35:25 – 46:45

• New Developments:
  • PP seizes on Guardia Civil/UCO report of envelopes of cash linked to former PSOE official Ábalos.
  • PSOE counters that these were legal reimbursement practices, with documentation.
  • Impact: Scandal seems to have lost political momentum, partly due to lack of definitive evidence tying PSOE to illegal financing.
  • Consensus among panelists: no smoking gun yet, photos alone provide "periodistic" but not necessarily legal value.

Quote
"Pero que es normal que las fotos tengan a más de una callado, a otros preocupados y a otros diciendo opiniones un poquito ligeras para ser magistrado y ministro del Interior."
— Carlos Navarro Antolín, [41:18]

7. Public Opinion & Government Measures on Gaza

Timestamp: 48:03 – 50:33

• Pablo Morán summarizes poll:
  • 60% disapprove of PP/Vox response to Gaza.
  • 65% back Spain’s ban on individuals implicated in Gaza war crimes.
  • Left-wing voters overwhelmingly back government measures; right-wingers less supportive, but consensus for two-state solution is surprisingly broad.

8. Gaza Ceasefire Negotiations & International News

Timestamp: 50:35 – 57:00

• Ceasefire talks in Egypt:

  • Hamas is willing to return all hostages under certain conditions (e.g., broader Israeli troop withdrawal; prisoner releases, notably Marwan Barguti).
  • Israel continues bombings despite US push for truce, causing high civilian casualties and fear among the families of remaining hostages.

• France’s Political Crisis:

  • Lucía Riera reports the unexpected resignation of France’s newly minted prime minister, highlighting ongoing instability under Macron and a broader systemic crisis in the Fifth Republic.

9. Healthcare Scandal in Andalucía

Timestamp: 58:13 – 60:03

• Fallout continues over delayed mammogram screenings impacting 2,000 women.
• Possible impending legal action and calls for political accountability as parties demand explanations.

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• "Hay partido."
  — Àngels Barceló and Antón Losada, [11:57]

• "La impresión que da es que ha sido la conexión del gobierno con la ciudadanía en este asunto tan doloroso lo que ha podido producir esta subida del PSOE."
  — Belén Barreiro, [04:12]

• "El escenario sería prácticamente de empate técnico entre los dos principales partidos."
  — Guillermo Lerma, [03:05]

• "Lo que está dejando de pasar facturas es la sensación de que después del ruido inicial lo que va quedando... no es tan voluminoso como parecía."
  — Antón Losada, [13:38]

• "La ventaja de la derecha tiene más que ver con la desmovilización y la crisis a la izquierda del PSOE que con la propia fortaleza de la derecha."
  — Antón Losada, [13:06]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:22 Poll Overview & Political Climate
• 03:07 Analysis with Belén Barreiro
• 11:49 Panel Debate: Main Causes and Trends
• 24:08 Territorial Strategies, Early Elections
• 35:25 Corruption Allegations Against PSOE
• 48:03 Public Opinion on Gaza
• 50:35 Gaza Ceasefire Talks, International
• 58:13 Andalusian Healthcare Scandal

Memorable Moments

• Frequent use of football metaphors to describe the "game" of elections.
• Panelists referencing Julio Iglesias’ lyric "Tropecé de nuevo y con la misma piedra" ("I stumbled again over the same stone") to describe recurring strategic mistakes in Spanish and French politics.
• Debate over the real impact of corruption scandals in an era where many voters appear inured to alleged misdeeds or more focused on international crises.

Tone & Style

• The episode is analytical yet conversational, with flashes of humor and pointed political critique.
• Contributors remain committed to nuanced discussion, stress caution in the face of potentially sensational news, and repeatedly highlight the complexity of voter motivations and emotional currents influencing Spanish politics today.

For listeners short on time: this episode is essential for understanding the dynamic new balance in Spanish politics, how the war in Gaza is emotionally and electorally impacting the electorate, and why regional strategies and international events may further shift the landscape ahead of any national election.