Podcast Summary

"El Abierto | Negociando el plan de paz de Trump y la crisis de Macron"

Hoy por Hoy – SER Podcast
Aired: 7 October 2025
Panelistas destacados: Àngels Barceló (host), José María Lasalle, Mariola Urrea, Víctor Lapuente, Mario Laurrea, Nuria Garrido (correspondent), Pablo Morán, Haizam Amirah Fernández (expert)

Episode Overview

This episode of "El Abierto" tackles two headline issues dominating international and European politics: the fraught negotiations surrounding Trump's proposed peace plan for Gaza amidst ongoing violence, and the escalating political crisis in France as President Macron struggles to maintain stability amid parliamentary gridlock and the threat of new elections. The conversation is marked by critical analysis, pointed debate, and sobering context provided by correspondents and analysts on both topics.

1. Negotiating the Trump-Netanyahu Gaza Peace Plan

Context & Current Events (01:09–06:19)

• The episode marks two years since Hamas's massive attack against Israel and the subsequent, massively destructive Israeli response on Gaza, described by several guests as "genocidio."
• Death toll: 67,000 killed in Gaza; 20,000 of these children. Ongoing bombings. (01:09–06:19)
• Despite persistent fighting, indirect peace negotiations are underway in Egypt, mediated by the US, Egypt, and Qatar, centered around a plan presented by Donald Trump with Netanyahu.

Notable Quote:
“Lo que esto desencadenó, esa respuesta genocida del gobierno de Benjamin Netanyahu, que ha arrasado prácticamente toda la franja, la ha reducido a escombros y ha matado ya a 67.000 personas.” – Àngels Barceló (01:09)

Negotiations in Cairo (01:57–04:38)

• Nuria Garrido from Jerusalem describes the talks as the first "serious" engagement in months, focused on releasing Israeli hostages in exchange for yet-to-be-determined Palestinian prisoners.
• The greatest uncertainty lies in whether Israel will withdraw from Gaza or continue controlling key areas post-agreement (notably the “corredor de Filadelfia”).
• Hamas is described as "mucho más debilitado" and isolated regionally. Netanyahu, meanwhile, has not acknowledged failures from 7 October, nor apologized to victims’ families.

Quote:
“Esta vez parece que hay más esperanza... Hamás está muy solo en toda la región.” – Nuria Garrido (02:24)

Ongoing Impacts and Power Dynamics (06:20–08:38)

• Pablo Morán summarizes interviews with Israeli analysts:
  • Netanyahu is seen as the biggest beneficiary—he exploited the trauma for political survival.
  • Israel has grown increasingly isolated internationally, reinforcing its government’s defensive, even "pariah" status.
  • Fundamental solution remains elusive: “sin un proyecto que garantice el otorgamiento de plena ciudadanía... continuaremos siendo testigos del derramamiento de sangre judía y palestina.” – Daniel Cooper Basser, analyst (08:18)

Analysis: Roots and Outcomes (08:48–16:32)

• Haizam Amirah Fernández (Arab Studies expert):
  • Hamas is structurally weakened but Israel’s policies—occupation, settlement expansion—perpetuate cycles of resistance and violence.
  • Trump’s plan is framed as another externally-imposed “colonial” project, lacking justice for both Palestinians and Israelis.
  • “Al final esto es un proyecto de colonización… diseñado por occidentales sin contar con los palestinos, igual que ocurrió hace más de un siglo.” (10:30)
  • Temporary halts in violence are possible; permanent peace is not, given current incentives, especially Netanyahu's domestic needs and “Estado de Israel desbocado.”
  • Regional actors back the pause to avert all-out war, yet Netanyahu and his coalition have no reason to end hostilities, given domestic and judicial vulnerabilities.

Tertulia: Opinions & Debate Among Panelists (17:33–30:55)

1. Skepticism about True Peace

• Mariola Urrea:
  • “Israel nos ha hecho a todos prisioneros de su genocidio y ahora pretende intercambiar genocidio por los rehenes.”
  • Fear that the “peace” talks are nothing more than attempts to “hacer inviable el Estado de Palestina.”

2. Pragmatism vs. Justice

• Víctor Lapuente:
  • The Trump plan, despite its vagueness, is the “least bad” among bad options: “no es un defecto sino una virtud, porque permite a cada uno agarrarse a esa vaguedad... da una salida honrosa a las dos partes.” (19:19)
  • Applauds both the pressure of the plan and Trump’s unpredictability, which may have forced Netanyahu’s hand.

3. The "Business of Peace"

• José María Lasalle:
  • Sees the plan as a “macrooperación inmobiliaria y de negocio en la Franja de Gaza” and points out that Israel’s internal politics, especially the far right and Netanyahu’s personal legal troubles, make a true peace “muy cogida de alfileres.” (21:39)

4. "Pausa de refresco," Not Peace

• Mariola (24:39):
  • Peace isn’t really on the table. “No podemos caer en la ingenuidad de que aquí estamos hablando de paz, se está hablando de una pausa de refresco.”
• Víctor (26:32):
  • Warns that the real risk is that this pause allows both sides to “rearmar” rather than to move toward sincere resolution.

5. Skepticism, Irony, and the "Theory of the Madman"

• Debate if Trump is knowingly clever or accidentally effective—a latter-day "Inspector Clouseau."
• Víctor: “Si lo consigue, sí que es un candidato para el Premio Nobel de la Paz. Por menos se lo dieron a Obama.” (28:42)

Key Timestamps for the Gaza Segment:

• 01:09 — State of Gaza two years after October 7
• 01:57 — Negotiation mechanics and sticking points
• 06:35 — Israeli political fallout, Netanyahu’s survival
• 08:48 — Hamas after two years, roots of the conflict (Haizam Amirah Fernández)
• 17:33 to 30:55 — Roundtable deep dive: panel opinions on the peace process, Netanyahu's motivations, Trump’s influence, and the bleak prospects for change

2. Political Crisis in France: The Macron Quandary

Setting the Stage (40:04–45:16)

• Macron’s “absolutist” approach and parliamentary deadlock have led to repeated government crises.
• Ex-PM Le Cornu resigns but is asked to secure one last “platform of action.” Legislative dissolution likely, with Marine Le Pen and the far-right poised for major gains.
• Opposition (including leftist LFI) calls for censure or early presidential elections; Socialists advocate a left-leaning government, but the left itself is fractured.

Quote: “Podríamos decir Francia. Podríamos decir Macron. Porque hasta Gabriela, tal macronista, dice que no entiende nada de lo que está haciendo Emmanuel Macron.” – Àngels (42:40)

Panel Analysis (42:50–52:55)

• Lasalle:
  • Macron is unable to form or sustain a government—the “panorama político es complicado.”
  • France’s breakdown would be a systemic threat to Europe: “Si Francia falla... probablemente lo que no funcionará es Europa.” (45:16)
• Mariola Urrea:
  • Macron acts like a solo act (“hombre orquesta”); after him, there's nothing (“cascarón vacío”).
  • He has “traicionado el espíritu de la Quinta República,” avoiding necessary power-sharing (47:21)
• Víctor Lapuente:
  • Macron’s legacy is a radicalized, polarized France. “Al final lo que le va a tocar a Francia es hacer también... reformas estructurales que no las ha hecho.”
  • Coalitions are impossible under the current French political system; leadership “hombre orquesta” can't fix deep-structural problems.
• Lasalle and Víctor:
  • France’s inability to reform is rooted in both the society and political structure—French society refuses to accept reality checks on its “statu quo de bienestar,” and deep-rooted issues with integration and elite renewal persist (49:06–51:00).

Key Quotes:

• “Francia no es capaz de abordar esas reformas, porque cuando se han planteado esas reformas la sociedad francesa ha reculado... Francia no es capaz de salir del ensimismamiento que le proporciona saber que disfruta de un statu quo de bienestar.” – Lasalle (49:06)
• “No se pueden recrear coaliciones como en Países Bajos o como incluso en España... tiene un problema estructural.” – Víctor (47:21)

Quick Hits and Spanish Domestic Politics (54:13–61:18)

Abortion Rights Showdown

• Data show public hospitals in five Spanish regions barely provide abortion services.
• Debate on the right to abortion and the insubordination (“insumisión”) of some regions to national law.
• Political gamesmanship between Madrid president Díaz Ayuso and Sanchez’s government.

Healthcare Lapses and Legal Action

• Tech failures in Andalucía’s breast cancer screening: potential criminal investigations, class-action, and activist outrage.
• “Tenemos derecho a vivir. Es que no es lo mismo coger la enfermedad por un grado a cogerla con otro.” – Gema Liébana, advocacy group (62:09)

Notable Quotes & Moments (with Timestamps)

• "La verdadera incógnita es si Israel va a retirar del todo a las tropas de la Franja de Gaza." – Nuria Garrido (03:30)
• "Hamas surge en parte con el apoyo de Israel para debilitar a la OLP… mientras no se vayan a las raíces, seguirá existiendo la resistencia." – Haizam Amirah Fernández (09:22)
• "No es plan de paz porque carece de justicia para los palestinos y tampoco trae seguridad al futuro de los israelíes." – Haizam Amirah Fernández (10:30)
• "Israel nos ha hecho a todos prisioneros de su genocidio..." – Mariola Urrea (17:33)
• "Quizás el negocio, alcanzar una solución ahora a medio plazo, es mejor para camino hacia la justicia." – Víctor Lapuente (35:18)
• "Francia no es capaz de abordar esas reformas... Francia no es capaz de salir del ensimismamiento que le proporciona saber que disfruta de un statu quo de bienestar" – José María Lasalle (49:06)
• "Con Macron, la figura de él… el partido es él. ¿Qué ocurre cuando esa figura se diluye?… detrás no hay nada." – Mariola Urrea (45:16)
• "Los derechos reproductivos de las mujeres no pueden estar condicionados, limitados, recortados... por la insumisión absolutamente inaceptable de unas comunidades autónomas." – Víctor Lapuente (58:29)

Conclusion / Takeaways

• Gaza and Israel: While negotiations offer faint hope, fundamentally unjust dynamics—territorial expansion, occupation, and instrumentalization of suffering—persist. The Trump plan is widely panned as a colonialist maneuver, with some panelists seeing a glimmer of pragmatism, others only a pause in violence.
• France: Macron’s attempt at personalized politics leaves the French system dangerously exposed; with new elections likely, the risk of far-right ascendancy looms and structural reforms remain blocked, raising alarms for Europe as a whole.
• Spain: Debates over abortion access and healthcare failures reveal ongoing struggles over rights, accountability, and regional insubordination to national law.

The mood throughout: sobering, unsparing, at times deeply critical—with only cautious hope that the world’s current crises might spark meaningful change.

For further in-depth analysis, listen to full expert and panelist interventions at:

• 01:57–05:42 (Gaza negotiations with Nuria Garrido)
• 06:19–08:38 (Israeli analysts recap with Pablo Morán)
• 08:48–16:32 (Deep interview with Haizam Amirah Fernández)
• 17:33–30:55 (Spanish tertulianos in debate)
• 42:40–52:55 (Analysis of French crisis)
• 54:13–61:18 (Abortion rights and healthcare system failures in Spain)