Podcast Summary: Hoy por Hoy – "El consumo de petróleo y de gas natural seguirá aumentando en los próximos 25 años"

Host: Àngels Barceló
Economy Segment Guest: Jordi Fábrega
Date: November 12, 2025

Overview

In this segment of "Hoy por Hoy", Àngels Barceló and economic analyst Jordi Fábrega discuss the latest International Energy Agency (IEA) report, which offers surprising and concerning projections: despite advances in renewable energy, global consumption of oil and natural gas will continue to rise over the next quarter-century. Their conversation covers the implications of this trend on climate change goals, the growing demand for energy (especially due to data centers), and the debated resurgence of nuclear power worldwide.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. IEA Report: Oil and Gas Consumption on the Rise

• Main Finding: Contrary to previous IEA forecasts, oil and natural gas consumption are not expected to decline but instead will increase through 2050.
  • Quote: “Con las políticas actuales… consumiremos más petróleo pese al avance de las energías renovables.” (Jordi Fábrega, 00:19)
• Reason for Change: Shifts in global political landscape, notably Donald Trump's return to the US presidency, have impacted climate policies.
  • Quote: “La previsión energética a futuro es que el consumo de petróleo seguirá creciendo... en 2050 consumiremos un 13% más de petróleo que ahora.” (Jordi Fábrega, 00:54)
• Natural Gas: Follows a similar upward trend, with consumption not expected to taper before 2050.

2. Renewables Will Grow—But Not Fast Enough

• Renewable Growth: While renewables—especially solar—will be the fastest-growing energy sources, this growth cannot keep pace with soaring energy demand.
• Energy Demand Surge: By 2035, global energy demand is projected to rise by 40% compared to today.
  • Quote: “Dentro de 10 años, en 2035, vamos a necesitar un 40% más de energía… que la que consumimos ahora mismo.” (Jordi Fábrega, 01:40)
• Data Centers as Major Players: 10% of the additional energy demand over the next decade will be consumed by data centers, driven by AI and digital infrastructure needs.

3. Climate Implications and Emissions

• Stagnant or Rising Emissions: Efforts to reduce CO₂ emissions are faltering at both national and international levels.
• Best-Case Scenario: By 2050, emissions might remain at current levels—falling short of climate targets.
  • Quote: “En el mejor de los casos… en 2050 las emisiones de CO serán las mismas que ahora.” (Jordi Fábrega, 02:38)
• Global Warming Projections: The Earth could warm up to 2.9°C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century, almost double the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target.
  • Quote: “Para final de este siglo la temperatura de la tierra crecerá hasta 2,9 grados por encima de los registros preindustriales.” (Jordi Fábrega, 02:50)

4. Role and Revival of Nuclear Energy

• Nuclear on the Rise: The report points to a “resurgence” in nuclear energy, with 40 countries making it part of their energy strategy and major construction underway.
  • Quote: “Hay 40 países que incluyen la energía nuclear como parte de su estrategia energética… plantas nucleares en construcción con capacidad para generar hasta 70 gigavatios de potencia.” (Jordi Fábrega, 03:34)
• Outlook for Nuclear: By 2035, global nuclear energy generation capacity is expected to grow by at least one third.
• IEA’s Position: The agency does not advocate for or against nuclear, but underscores its growing role.

Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• “Con las políticas actuales… consumiremos más petróleo pese al avance de las energías renovables.”
  (Jordi Fábrega, 00:19)
• “La previsión energética a futuro es que el consumo de petróleo seguirá creciendo... en 2050 consumiremos un 13% más de petróleo que ahora.”
  (Jordi Fábrega, 00:54)
• “Vamos hacia un mundo en el que se va a consumir muchísima más energía…”
  (Jordi Fábrega, 01:29)
• “Un 10% será para alimentar a estos centros de datos.”
  (Jordi Fábrega, 01:54)
• “En el mejor de los casos… las emisiones de CO serán las mismas que ahora.”
  (Jordi Fábrega, 02:38)
• “La temperatura del planeta subiría prácticamente el doble” [de lo previsto en París].
  (Jordi Fábrega, 02:58)
• “Hay 40 países que incluyen la energía nuclear como parte de su estrategia energética…”
  (Jordi Fábrega, 03:34)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:19 – Introduction of IEA report’s main shift: higher oil/gas consumption projections.
• 01:26 – Discussion on why renewables won’t bridge the entire gap in demand.
• 01:40 – Data centers’ role in driving up energy demand.
• 02:23 – Emissions trajectory and “best-case scenario” outlined.
• 02:50 – Paris Agreement targets and looming failure to contain warming.
• 03:23 – Nuclear energy’s emerging importance and international strategy.
• 04:09 – Segment close.

Tone and Style

The tone remains analytic and reflective, with a clear focus on providing listeners with an unvarnished look at the harsh realities and complex trade-offs in global energy policy. Both Barceló and Fábrega maintain a steady, informative pace, balancing technical details with accessible language for a broad audience.

Conclusion

This episode delivers a sobering update on the world’s energy future: fossil fuel consumption persists, renewables surge yet can’t keep pace, and nuclear is making a comeback—all while climate targets drift further out of reach. Listeners come away with a critical understanding of the global energy dilemma and the formidable challenges on the road to sustainability.