Podcast Summary: "La economía de Hoy por Hoy | El superávit comercial de China supera por primera vez un billón de dólares"
Host: José Luis Sastre (SER Podcast)
Date: December 8, 2025

Overview of the Episode

This episode focuses on China's record-breaking commercial surplus, which has surpassed one trillion dollars for the first time despite ongoing trade tensions and increased tariffs, especially with the United States. The hosts analyze how China has managed to adapt its export strategies, the implications for global trade, the shifting balance of economic power, and what this means for Europe, which faces mounting pressure to reconsider its own approach to Chinese imports.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

China's Resilience Amid Tariffs

• China’s economy was widely expected to suffer under the pressure of increased tariffs, primarily from the United States.
• New data shows that, contrary to these expectations, China's export sector has flourished, driving the commercial surplus above the one trillion dollar mark within just eleven months of 2025.
• Quote [00:31]
  José Luis Sastre:
  "Si alguien temía que la subida de aranceles de Estados Unidos podía afectar a la economía china, los últimos datos que hemos conocido esta madrugada nos reconfirman que... le ha afectado muy poco porque China no solo ha conseguido hasta ahora parar el golpe, sino que ha logrado un récord de exportaciones."

Redirection of Exports

• The hosts explain China’s strategic pivot in response to US tariffs:
  • While exports to the United States have fallen sharply (down 29% in November 2025 compared to the previous year), China is simultaneously increasing exports to other regions, notably Southeast Asia and the European Union.
• Quote [01:36]
  Jordi:
  "Esto lo ha conseguido reorientando sus ventas. Es decir, vende más a Asia y Europa y lo que hace es vender menos a Estados Unidos."

Regional Breakdown of Chinese Export Growth

• Southeast Asia: Consistent 8% monthly growth in Chinese exports during 2025.
• European Union: Chinese exports up nearly 15% compared to November 2024.
• The devaluation of the yuan has also made Chinese goods more appealing abroad.
• Quote [02:17]
  José Luis Sastre:
  "El otro destino de estos productos es la Unión Europea, donde también se están vendiendo muchos más productos chinos, hasta un 15%, un 14,9 han crecido las ventas de China a los países europeos durante el mes de noviembre."

European Response and Policy Tensions

• There is growing concern in Europe about this influx of Chinese products, especially at low prices, which puts pressure on European industries.
• The idea of raising tariffs on Chinese imports is gaining traction—not just as a reaction to market abuses, but as a strategic measure to level the playing field.
• French President Emmanuel Macron is cited as advocating for such measures, warning of an "unsustainable" trade imbalance.
• Ongoing talks between Brussels and Washington about their mutual tariff policies continue to shape the European response.
• Quote [03:13]
  José Luis Sastre:
  "Se está empezando a plantear es ya directamente una subida de aranceles para frenar la llegada de productos de China... lo ha puesto sobre la mesa este fin de semana el presidente francés Emmanuel Macron."

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the reality of the trade war's impact:
  "La diferencia entre el valor de los productos que vende fuera y los que compra de fuera es de un billón de dólares. Es un billón de dinero de fuera que entra en China tras esta venta de productos del país asiático." – José Luis Sastre [00:52]
• On Europe's growing dilemma:
  "Macron... habla de un desequilibrio comercial insostenible que está dejando a la industria europea atrapada entre China y Estados Unidos." – José Luis Sastre [03:38]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:07 | Setting the stage: ongoing discussions about tariff impacts
• 00:31 | China's record-breaking trade surplus and resilience
• 01:36 | Shift in export destinations: less to the US, more to Asia and Europe
• 02:17 | Detailed breakdown of export growth to Southeast Asia and EU; impact of currency valuation
• 03:13 | European Union’s considerations for new tariffs; Macron’s statements
• 04:00 | Context of ongoing EU-US negotiations and policy responses

Conclusion

The episode provides a comprehensive analysis of China’s unexpected economic resilience in the face of heightened tariffs from the US, highlighting the country's ability to adapt its export markets and deepen trade relations with Southeast Asia and Europe. With the commercial surplus now at unprecedented levels, the global economic landscape is shifting, putting new pressures on European policymakers as they attempt to balance competitiveness, trade relationships, and internal industry protection. The discussion underscores the complexity of global trade dynamics and the far-reaching impacts of economic policy decisions.