Podcast Summary: La economía de Hoy por Hoy

Podcast: Hoy por Hoy, SER Podcast
Host: Àngels Barceló
Episode Date: October 10, 2025
Main Focus: Last day for Banco Sabadell shareholders to decide on BBVA’s takeover bid (OPA)

Overview

In this episode, the team discusses the final stages of BBVA's public offer (OPA) to acquire Banco Sabadell. Listeners are given a clear, expert-guided explanation of the process, the possible outcomes, and the perspectives from both banks just hours before the acceptance deadline expires. The discussion focuses on informing the public about what is at stake for shareholders, what happens next, and the likely scenarios as the banking sector watches closely.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. OPA Deadline and Process

• BBVA's takeover bid on Sabadell reaches its acceptance deadline today (October 10).
• (00:07) The outcome will not be known immediately:
  • Though decisions are due today, the official result will only be published next Friday, as the CNMV (National Securities Market Commission) has five working days to tally and verify the information.
  • BBVA is keeping some offices open late—until 9 PM—to give last-minute shareholders a chance to respond.
  • Quote:
    • "[...] BBVA va a abrir algunas oficinas este viernes por la tarde hasta las 9 de la noche para dar opción a que los rezagados, los que lo quieren pensar prácticamente hasta el último minuto, puedan comunicar si venden o no sus acciones." — (A, 00:23)

2. Possible Scenarios for the OPA Outcome

• (01:14) The conversation clarifies the different outcomes based on acceptance levels:
  • Scenario 1: More than 50% Acceptance
    • If BBVA secures over 50% of Sabadell's shares, the takeover is fully successful. Sabadell becomes part of the BBVA group, under the agreed conditions.
    • Quote:
      • "Para que la OPA sea exitosa tiene que conseguir BBVA más del 50% de las acciones del Sabadell." — (A, 01:21)
  • Scenario 2: Between 30% and 50% Acceptance
    • BBVA can choose to keep these shares but must then launch a second, cash-only OPA at a price determined by the CNMV.
    • This second step is compulsory if BBVA decides to go ahead but is ultimately the bank's choice.
  • Scenario 3: Less than 30% Acceptance
    • The OPA fails entirely and the banks continue independently.

3. Anticipation and Internal Forecasts

• (03:29) The tone shifts to what each side expects:
  • BBVA is optimistic, forecasting acceptance rates between 60–70%, especially confident that major investment funds will sell their shares.
  • Sabadell is much less positive, suggesting that only about 1% of retail investors had accepted by Wednesday and doubting BBVA will hit even the 30% threshold.
  • Quote:
    • "En Sabadell, en cambio, dicen que los números no dan, que no todos los fondos van a vender... apenas un 1 % había aceptado la OPA día del miércoles." — (A, 03:35)

4. Implications for Shareholders and the Market

• The segment underlines the emotional “election night” atmosphere, as uncertainties remain until the official tally by CNMV.
• Investors, both retail and institutional, hold the key to the deal's fate.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the extended office openings:

  • "[...] BBVA va a abrir algunas oficinas este viernes por la tarde hasta las 9 de la noche para dar opción a que los rezagados [...] puedan comunicar si venden o no sus acciones." — (A, 00:23)

• On the OPA acceptance threshold:

  • "Para que la OPA sea exitosa tiene que conseguir BBVA más del 50% de las acciones del Sabadell." — (A, 01:21)

• On the uncertainty between banks:

  • "BBVA sigue convencido de que tiene un nivel de aceptación más que suficiente. Calculan que va a tener entre el 60 y el 70 por ciento de las acciones del Sabadell." — (A, 03:35)
  • "En Sabadell, en cambio, dicen que los números no dan, que no todos los fondos van a vender... apenas un 1 % había aceptado la OPA día del miércoles." — (A, 03:35)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:07 – Deadline and process explanation: How and when results will be known
• 01:14 – Three OPA outcome scenarios explained
• 03:29 – Internal forecasts from BBVA and Sabadell
• 04:16 – Episode wraps up the discussion, promises follow-up when final results arrive

Conclusion

This episode provides a clear, real-time breakdown of the BBVA–Sabadell OPA decision process and the potential ramifications. Listeners gain both a procedural understanding and insight into the high-stakes negotiations and expectations on each side. The hosts keep the tone informative yet urgent, capturing the importance of the day for Spain’s banking sector and its shareholders.