Podcast Summary: Hoy por Hoy – “Los aranceles de Trump tienen menos efecto sobre las grandes empresas de lo que pensaban”

Host: Àngels Barceló
Guest/Economy Segment: Jordi Fábrega
Date: November 24, 2025
Episode Theme:
The episode examines the changing attitudes of major American companies towards Trump-era tariffs. Initial pessimism has shifted as the real economic impact has proved less severe than anticipated. The discussion draws on recent analyses from outlets like The Wall Street Journal and El Periódico and places the developments within both US and Spanish economic contexts.

Main Theme

The central focus is how large U.S. companies have adapted to, and now downplayed, the impact of Trump’s trade tariffs—contrasting sharply with their earlier, much more negative rhetoric. The conversation also teases upcoming economic indicators in both the U.S. and Spain, with broader reflections on the intersection of policy, business sentiment, and electoral strategy.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Shift in Corporate Discourse on Tariffs

• Initial Pessimism: At the beginning of the year, U.S. CEOs predicted major headwinds from new tariffs announced by Trump’s administration.

  • Example: Jim Farley, CEO of Ford, lamented that tariffs would add $2 billion in costs to Ford, calling them a “viento de cara” (headwind).
  • [01:00]
    Quote (Jordi Fábrega):
    “Decía Farley que los aranceles serían un obstáculo, un viento de cara, para los costes de la empresa. Llegó a cuantificar en 2.000 millones de dólares su coste para Ford.”

• Current Acceptance & Changed Narratives: By late autumn, many leaders acknowledge the tariffs, but express far less concern—some even expressing gratitude to the administration for tariff reductions.

  • Example: The same Ford CEO, Jim Farley, now credits Trump for lowering tariffs and estimates the cost increase has shrunk from $2 billion to just $1 million over initial calculations.
  • [01:40]
    Quote (Jordi Fábrega):
    “Ahora dice que tiene que dar las gracias a Trump y a su gobierno por bajar los aranceles y ha asumido que esos 2.000 millones de dólares de mayores costes que había calculado a principios de año serán sólo un millón más.”

• Media Analysis: This is not an isolated case but a trend identified across many large companies, as per analysis published in The Wall Street Journal and El Periódico.

  • “Este giro... es lo común entre las compañías que ha analizado.” [01:55]

2. Reasons Behind the Shift

• Lower-than-Expected Impact: Analysts suggest several explanations:
  • The actual increase in tariffs, despite being steep—from 2% in January to 12% in October (Oxford Economics data)—was far below the 25% feared.
  • The worst of the tariff hikes has likely already occurred, leading to a focus on future prospects rather than past pain.
  • Political context: As midterm elections approach, there’s speculation Trump may reduce tariffs to appeal to voters.
  • [02:23]
    Quote (Jordi Fábrega): “También dicen que al final la subida de aranceles, pese a que ha sido muy notable y muy costosa, no ha sido tan alta como se esperaba. De hecho, las empresas de Estados Unidos han pasado... de un 2% en aranceles en enero de este año a pagar en octubre un 12%. Es decir, es una subida notable, pero no es el 25% que temían en marzo.”
    “A medida que se acerquen las elecciones... Trump puede bajar algunos aranceles para aliviar el bolsillo de los votantes.”

3. Upcoming Economic Indicators and Global Perspective

• Anticipated Data Releases: This week sees the release of important U.S. data: the Q3 GDP figure and a key inflation index, which will reveal more about the tariffs’ tangible effects on the broader economy and household finances.
  • In Spain, provisional November inflation stats (INE) and mortgage figures are due.
  • Rising Euribor rates suggest that the cost of mortgages in Spain has bottomed out.
  • [03:27]
    Quote (Jordi Fábrega):
    “Esta semana conoceremos la evolución de los precios en el mes de noviembre con el dato adelantado de inflación... el Euribor ya te adelanto que volverá a subir y confirmará... que el coste de las hipotecas en España ha tocado ya suelo.”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• [01:00] – Jim Farley (Ford CEO, via Jordi Fábrega):
  “Los aranceles serían un obstáculo, un viento de cara para los costes de la empresa.”
• [01:40] – Change in Ford's stance:
  “Ahora dice que tiene que dar las gracias a Trump... ha asumido que esos 2.000 millones... serán sólo un millón más.”
• [02:23] – On the actual vs. feared tariff impacts:
  “Pese a que ha sido muy notable y muy costosa, no ha sido tan alta como se esperaba... no es el 25% que temían en marzo.”
• [03:27] – On inflation data’s importance for families and markets:
  “El miércoles saldrán el dato de crecimiento económico... y también el índice de precios en el país.”
• [03:49] – Spanish mortgage rates hitting their low:
  “El Euribor ya te adelanto que volverá a subir... el coste de las hipotecas en España ha tocado ya suelo.”

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:06 – Opening of economics segment
• 00:26 – Overview of how company leaders’ rhetoric on tariffs has changed
• 01:00 – Examples from Ford and other major companies
• 02:23 – Analysis of causes behind the change in tone
• 03:20 – Preview of upcoming economic data in the U.S. and Spain
• 03:49 – Commentary on Spanish mortgage rates

Overall Tone and Takeaways

The conversation is insightful yet grounded, reflecting a tone of measured realism. Where past segments might have been colored by corporate alarmism or media hyperbole, current analysis focuses on adaptation and forward-looking pragmatism.

Final Thought (Àngels Barceló, 04:11):
“De todo esto hablaremos a lo largo de la semana, Jordi. Gracias.”

This episode provides listeners keen on global economics a clear update on the real-world effects of high-profile trade policies, piercing through corporate rhetoric to the underlying realities—and previews key data to watch for the days ahead.