Hoy por Hoy – La Entrevista

Guest: Belén Barreiro, directora de 40dB
Host: Àngels Barceló
Date: December 8, 2025
Episode Theme:
Analysis of recent voting intention survey results for Cadena SER and implications for major Spanish parties, with a special focus on shifts in women's votes and the current and potential rise of Vox.

Episode Overview

In this episode, Àngels Barceló interviews Belén Barreiro, CEO of 40dB, to dissect the latest barometer survey on voting intentions. The conversation explores changing trends in women’s voting behavior, the apparent surge of the PP and Vox, the decline of PSOE and Sumar, and the effect of recent scandals. Notably, they discuss the difficulty in identifying the upper electoral limit—or "techo"—for Vox and dive into how society reacts to political controversies.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Shifting Women’s Vote

• Barreiro notes a growing migration of women’s votes from PSOE towards abstention, PP, and even Vox.
• Young women are increasingly present in far-right support bases, although overall, women's votes remain less likely to support Vox than men's.
• Many women remain undecided or consider casting blank/nulo (null) votes; this indecision is statistically higher than among men.

“Hay mujeres que engrosan las filas del grupo de abstencionistas, blanco, nulo, indecisos, que de hecho es la categoría más frecuente entre las mujeres en estos momentos.”
— Belén Barreiro (00:38)

2. Party Trends: The Left’s Decline

• The Partido Popular (PP) and Vox are both rising, while PSOE and Sumar are declining.
• The only minor growth on the left is Podemos, albeit from a low base.
• The recent scandals (e.g., Salazar) have not yet fully impacted survey results.

“El Partido Socialista tiene todavía una capacidad importante de retención. Es cierto que con el caso Salazar esto puede llegar a sus límites.”
— Belén Barreiro (02:38)

3. Electoral Context and Scandals

• Elections in Extremadura and others at the regional level may not drastically affect general elections, though ongoing scandals could.
• Public fatigue and “saturation” from consecutive scandals could shift opinions, but frequently with a delay.
• Historical parallel: Public took 6-8 months to punish PP after Bárcenas, indicating slow shifts.

“La ciudadanía puede tener paciencia ante los escándalos... pero también tiene un punto de saturación.”
— Belén Barreiro (02:16)

4. Ideological Center and Desmovilization

• The average ideological center in the poll hits 5.0, a sign often seen before a clear right-wing victory.
• PSOE leads in voter demobilization: Fewer than 60% of past supporters say they'd “absolutely” vote for them, dropping into the 50s percentile.

“Por primera vez en bastante tiempo la media ideológica en este barómetro se sitúa en el 5… es una fotografía normalmente previa a una victoria clara de la derecha.”
— Belén Barreiro (03:36-03:51)

“Ahora en estos momentos [PSOE] es el partido con más desmovilización y con menos del 60% de electores suyos que dicen con total certidumbre que votarían...”
— Belén Barreiro (04:36)

5. The Special Weight of the Salazar Case

• The Salazar scandal is particularly damaging, Barreiro claims, as it “reflects a culture within the party antithetical to its core principles, especially offensive to women.”
• The repetition of scandals exhausts public patience.

“El caso Salazar refleja una cultura en el Partido Socialista que es realmente contraria a los principios que dice defender, que es tremendamente ofensiva para las mujeres y también para muchos hombres...”
— Belén Barreiro (06:07)

6. The Uncertain Techo (Ceiling) of Vox

• Vox achieves 17.4% in the poll; PP 31%, PSOE 27.8%.
• Barreiro suggests the real support for Vox could be underreported:
  • Conservative methodology due to recent volatility may mask their true strength.
  • The actual “ceiling” for Vox remains unknown; further growth is possible.

“El techo de Vox aún no lo sabemos… hay un margen para que Vox esté más fuerte de lo que nos dicen las encuestas. Yo creo que ese margen sí existe.”
— Belén Barreiro (07:06-07:17)

“No descartaría que Vox tenga en realidad un porcentaje de voto mayor que el que estamos dando.”
— Belén Barreiro (08:08)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On shifting women’s votes:

  “Hay mujeres que engrosan las filas del grupo de abstencionistas... y también no pocas mujeres... que se pasan al PP e incluso a Vox.” (00:38)

• On scandals and delayed reaction:

  “La opinión pública tiene a veces una digestión lenta porque los desengaños políticos... tienen su proceso, su proceso psicológico de cómo se asimilan.” (02:38)

• On risk for the left:

  “Son esas primeras señales que si no se revierten pueden indicar un cambio de tendencia.” (04:53-04:57)

• On Vox’s ceiling:

  “El techo de Vox aún no lo sabemos... nuestras propias estimaciones terminan reflejando un resultado mayor.” (07:06-07:52)

Important Timestamps

• 00:07 – 01:18: Discussion of changes in women’s voting patterns
• 01:18 – 02:38: Left’s decline and potential impact of scandals
• 02:38 – 04:57: Slow social response to scandals and signs of rightward shift
• 05:14 – 06:46: Deep dive into the significance of the Salazar case
• 06:46 – 08:08: Debate on PP, PSOE, Vox polling numbers and Vox’s uncertain ceiling

Recap

Barreiro provides a nuanced, data-driven look at Spanish political realignments—emphasizing a pivotal moment for women’s voting behavior, persistent left-wing demobilization, and an uncertain, possibly underestimated rise of Vox. She warns that if the left cannot reverse current trends and the right-wing sustains its momentum, Spain could be on the cusp of “una victoria clara de la derecha.” The true strength of Vox, according to Barreiro, might still be hidden behind cautious polling estimates.