Paula Scanlon (5:29)

This is Human Events with Jack Posoba.

Jack Posobic (5:31)

Now it's time for everyone to understand what America first truly welcome to the second American revolution. All right, folks, here we are. Human Events Daily. We're back. Real America's voice. Now we've got Speaker Johnson is delivering his last right there. He's just given this the end of his speech. You can see that down in the corner. So we're keeping a track on this and it appears that votes could be happening within the hour. If that happens, we will take you to that. But to give us an update on all things big beautiful bill, we've got May Mailman joining us now, the deputy assistant to the President and senior policy strategist. May, how are you?

May Mailman (6:20)

Hey, it's good to be back.

Jack Posobic (6:23)

Well, it's incredible to have you here. And I got to say, for all intents and purposes, it looks as though the White House, the administration, you guys, are on the cusp of a big beautiful victory where this bill will be turned into the big beautiful law. Walk us through how the White House views the process happening from here on out. And, and really what's in this bill that Americans can be looking forward to?

May Mailman (6:48)

Yeah. So after Congress votes, then we have to implement. So that means a couple of things. One, on the tax credits, we need to make sure that no tax on Social Security, no tax on tips, no tax on overtime get actually implemented through the treasury process. So this is, you know, where, where we work with the deep state to make sure that everybody has the guidance that they need and then American labor can finally be freed up again and so that we can see a manufacturing renaissance. So that's something that we are focused on is implementing the tax provisions. Then you've got a lot of the rest. We are going to obviously wind down a lot of the green new scam deals. So there will be no new credits issued in 2028. And so basically anything that is in construction right now has to be it. That's it. And so we're going to be moving over a lot of investment, a lot of focus to reliable American made energy sources, those sorts of things. We've got work requirements that we're going to implement. So this is going to put so many more people into the workforce. It's going to give so many people something to live for. Again right now, without work requirements, people, and these are pretty simple work require hours a week. This is something that all Americans who are able bodied can do and should do. So we're going to empower Americans to get back in the workforce and provide for their families. There's so many wins in here. Conservative wins, savings wins. I know the CBO says that this is going to increase the deficit. Our numbers are $8.4 trillion off of that because tax cuts produce more revenue for the government. We also have the largest savings of any bill in history. So we're going to be saving money, we're going to be putting people to work. We're going to be uplifting American spirit. We're going to be increasing manufacturing, making our country energy dominant. So many wins here and may.

Jack Posobic (8:42)

When it, when it comes down to it, there's one issue I think above all that when I, when our audience weighs in on this, when they really come in, the single biggest issue that we get is ice. And they want to see the full funding for ice. And this is something where I think if you go to the mainstream media, they're not even talking about it, or if they do, you get Hakeem Jeffries and the, the deport machine on steroids. And I'm joking. I said, did you not understand what all of 2024 was about? I'm pretty sure the President talked about this every single chance he was physically able to do so. That the American people need relief from the massive influx of, of illegal aliens that came under Joe Biden. So talk to us a little bit about this piece on finally funding ICE to do the job that needs to be done.

May Mailman (9:35)

Right? So President Joe Biden let in people who we. You don't even know the numbers and you don't know who they are, but they're living in your communities, they're in many places still living on the streets, and they're endangering Americans. And it's something that Americans voted against. So by fully funding border security, this is funding the wall, and this is also funding ICE operations. So not only ICE officers to increase the number of ICE officers, but increase the number of bed, because if you've got a nice officer, but there's nowhere to put people while they go through their proceedings. Right? So this is America, and everybody gets proceedings, but those proceedings take a while, so there has to be a place to put people. So this bill fully funds not only ICE officers, but it also funds that infrastructure like the bed space, in order to effectuate these removals to keep America safe and to promote the legal pathway. Right. It is completely unfair that people get to hop the line and then if you get across the border, then there's no one to catch you. Then there's, there's nothing that happens to you. A nation that is founded on fairness and justice cannot tolerate that sort of system. And this bill puts an end to it.

Jack Posobic (10:45)

Oh, absolutely. And I certainly understand the concerns of many out there who have raised questions about spending, particularly on a variety of these things. But it's incredible to me how, number one, when you're removing these illegal aliens who are such a drain on our systems and a drain, by the way, on the entitlement programs that that doesn't seem to fact certainly doesn't factor into the CBO score, but it doesn't factor into any of their arguments because you're actually increase or decreasing the demand for social services through the deportations. And, you know, they're only focused on the supply side of this, but on another side, they're not talking about growth. How do you have jobs numbers like the ones that come out today, which obviously would have factored into the CBO score but didn't. That is only just the start of what we're starting to see from the new economy going forward. Talk to us a little bit about how there really isn't the correct story being put out on growth.

May Mailman (11:42)

Yeah. So right now, the way that the Congressional Budget Office, which always says that liberal bills are free, I mean, this is a group that said that Biden's student loan, or sorry, Obama, same, you know, same thing. But that Obama's student loan program would cost $0. That for the government to give loans to everybody who wanted them, it would not cost anything. It would actually make up enough money to pay for Obamacare. Of course, that's crazy, right? Our student loan system, nobody's repaying. You're giving it to people who can't finish their degrees who actually had no intention of doing it, and students who are set up for failure by universities that give them useless degrees. So this is the CBO that thought that that program would actually save money, says that this bill is going to cost money. And the way that they get to that, as your listeners will know, is that they say that the tax cuts are very expensive. But here's the funny thing. The tax cuts are an extension of what's already the case. So they're saying that it's expensive to literally just continue the status quo. But if we had the greatest tax hike in history, that would not be the status quo. That would be very expensive to the American people in that you would end American manufacturing, you would end small business growth. And so you would see a real decline in the GDP and in, in the jobs, in the manufacturing, but also in the American spirit. I mean, honestly, it would, it would, it would just crush people and the amount of money that they have to spend. And so the CBO score has no bearing on real. And when we look from our cea, so this is our Council of Economic Advisors, which is a nonpartisan organization within the executive branch. They said that if you look at even the tariff revenue, combined with the growth, combined with the savings, we are $8.4 trillion off of what the CBO says. So clearly we don't believe what they have to say and when the American people shouldn't either.

Jack Posobic (13:51)

Well, I think this is incredible. May, we've only got about a minute left. I know you guys are super busy there. Does it look like, though? And it certainly seems to be for me. I tweeted this this morning. So we have to make sure that it's true that on this Fourth of July, President Trump is about to deliver one of the most biggest and beautiful birthday presents to the United States of America since 1776. Are we going to get there?

May Mailman (14:17)

I think we will. I think we have the votes. And right now, then it just turns to us. Our job gets hard, Congress's job gets easy, and we have to implement. Of course, there's still things Congress can do, but this implements President Trump's agenda. One of the things I think people were frustrated about was that there were so many wins during Trump 1.0. And then Biden took them all away. On day one, he took them all away. And this is important in order to solidify and change the course of our country, in order to have President Trump's agenda be permanent. That's what this bill does.

Jack Posobic (14:47)

Simple as that. May, where can people go to follow you and see everything that you and the White House are putting out?

May Mailman (14:53)

Yeah. So on Twitter, I'm at Mae Mailman, and obviously follow all of our great people here in the White House. Caroline. Our White House press office. So, yeah, that's where you can find me.

Jack Posobic (15:08)

We love all the folks there and the great work you guys are doing. Maybe if I don't see you, have a Happy Independence Day. Thank you. All right, right back. Jack Rock, Human Events Daily. They talk about influencers. These are influencers and they're friends of mine. Jack. Where's Jack? Jack, who's got a great job.

Paula Scanlon (15:35)

My name is Carlos Hamlin, and I'm a former swimmer from the University of Pennsylvania.

May Mailman (15:39)

My name is Riley Gaines.

Paula Scanlon (15:40)

I was a swimmer at the University of Kentucky.

Rich Barris (15:43)

I was permanently injured at the hands.

Paula Scanlon (15:45)

Of a man when I was forced.

May Mailman (15:46)

To play against him in a high school volleyball game.

Paula Scanlon (15:49)

I was forced to compete against a biological male on my middle school track team. I had to compete against two biological males throughout all four years of high school. Trump's admin and the Department of Education have gotten the University of Pennsylvania not just to apologize for what they did to me and other Female athletes that were forced to compete against and alongside this male athlete, but they also got them to change their policies and to take down his records from the board, which is a great win.

May Mailman (16:13)

The stories we heard brought tears to all of our eyes.

Paula Scanlon (16:15)

It was powerful.

May Mailman (16:16)

It was moving.

Paula Scanlon (16:17)

I'm so excited for the announcement from Secretary McMahon and President Trump today as they stand at the forefront of this issue for women and girls everywhere. I am so thankful that we finally have an administration in office who is willing to stand up and ensure sure that no other girl has to experience the pain and heartbreak I went through.

May Mailman (16:32)

I'm just very excited that the Trump.

Paula Scanlon (16:34)

Administration is taking action to protect girls. We're fighting for the next generation, young.

May Mailman (16:38)

Girls like my daughter.

Paula Scanlon (16:41)

So just very, very grateful and excited for what this means.

Jack Posobic (16:47)

Well, incredible news out of the White House in terms of that. And we've also, of course, very excited to have on the great. The great. I'm going to give her the great Paula Scanlon, who was just in that video. She is a senior fellow at App, but also, of course, was on the swim team with Leah Thomas. Paula, what. What a week it's been for you.

Paula Scanlon (17:16)

Definitely. I mean, it's been a really crazy week just getting around and this announcement really came very suddenly, but I'm grateful for it. I think we've seen really strong leadership from the Trump administration. I mean, continued strong leadership. They campaigned on this, they promised this, and they delivered only within six months. They got penned already, come crawling back apologizing. This is a historic win. And again, I'm so grateful for them and their leadership.

Jack Posobic (17:40)

So, so walk us through for. For folks who haven't seen the whole context of it. And you know, I saw the stuff that you had tweeted out about it, but walk us through, what exactly has Penn done here?

Paula Scanlon (17:51)

Yes. So back in March, the Trump administration pulled federal funding from the University of Pennsylvania for their violations in Title IX. Obviously, they had a 6 foot 4 tall, fully intact male on our women's swim team. It's very clear they were violating Title 9 there. They pulled the funds. Penn then went to the Trump administration, said, hey, I'm willing to negotiate. And whatever happened behind closed doors with those wonderful people, they got the University of Pennsylvania to issue an apology to the female athletes affected. Wipe Thomas's name from the record board. Begin using language that's true in defining men and women, which is very important, which is so silly that we even have to make them. But that was one of the other things that they agreed to. And again, this is something we've never seen before. No one else who's violated these Title nine problems has. Has come to the table like this and just said, actually, we're going to walk this all back.

Jack Posobic (18:44)

So. And this, of course, comes on the heels of the pressure from the Trump administration locking up the federal funding and getting them to actually try to behave. Do you think that President Trump maybe had a little bit of a personal investment in this because he himself is a pen grad?

Paula Scanlon (19:03)

I mean, we can only look at the connection, but I hope so. But also I think that Penn is. Is realizing really what's at stake here. Right. We've seen Harvard go the other direction and not cooperate with the Trump administration. I think what they're seeing is the Trump administration stands on business and should be feared. And I honestly think the University of Pennsylvania finally, for the first time ever, has. Has done the smart thing thing here. So I hope the connection is there, and I would love for Trump to go back. Why don't. Actually, you know, they should have agreed to. Trump should have to be the commencement speaker at the University of Pennsylvania next year. That's what I would like to see in their agreement.

Jack Posobic (19:38)

Oh, my gosh. So. So actually have him there and now. And correct me if I'm wrong, but, Pen, I think this is true. You're required to sit there through the graduation speaker, isn't that right?

Paula Scanlon (19:52)

I think so. I mean, maybe you could get up and leave, but they probably won't let you out.

Jack Posobic (19:56)

No, I remember this coming up years ago, and there was some, like, crazy Islamic speaker, and I had some friends who were there at the time, and they were required to. They were required to. They were required to speak or required to sit during the speech. And so I guess they'd have to be forced to be there. By the way, I am being told through my producer's ear, well, my ear, that the big, beautiful bill has just passed. Guys, can we get that. Can we get that box up in the corner here? And I want to see the. The actual votes, if we can get the actual votes. May have been a voice vote. And so there it is. Incredible. Paula, can I just get you to weigh in real quick on. On this bill? Because this is. This is hot breaking news.

Paula Scanlon (20:42)

Oh, my gosh. I cannot believe I'm on with you when this is happening. Obviously, this is just, again, hard work at stake here. That's so many things we had to get in there. And this is why we have strong leadership under the Trump administration. I mean, this is amazing. I'm so glad to see Trump's agenda continue to get pushed along and I'm glad some of the people that were questionable have, have now cooperated.

Jack Posobic (21:04)

So this is incredible and I want to get the numbers on this and we're going to have to look at the actual, the actual members. But yeah, you can see it there too. I think it says was that 216 to 16 to 2 Republicans voted against, 2 not voting. So of course we're going to have to track them all down. Brian Fitzpatrick last night running away from the House chamber. Some Brian Fitzpatrick, by the way, Bucks County, Pennsylvania, Paula. One of your favorite locations, if I remember correctly.

Paula Scanlon (21:35)

Yeah, I have a lot of family out there. We spoke together at an event out in Bucks.

Jack Posobic (21:40)

We did an event there. Yeah, last year.

Paula Scanlon (21:41)

Gotta go pay him a visit.

Jack Posobic (21:43)

We may have to go. No Brian Fitzpatrick. So he's there because it's for his former brother seat, his late brother seat, who is a very good congressman. Brian is someone that I've known for over 15 years, you know, through his brother. And just say, you know, Brian Fitzpatrick is no Mike Fitzpatrick. And that's saying that's probably the best thing that I could say about his tenure in Congress. It just, it symbols that former FBI director, you know, it's just, it's just is what it is, Paula. This is a huge, huge win though, I think for people who want to 20x the ICE budget, for people who want to actually get out there and see these mass deportations take place and actually get the president's agenda pushed forward. Last minute to you, Paul Scanlan, where can people go to follow you and how important are all of these victories for Americans, for regular Americans?

Paula Scanlon (22:33)

Yeah, well, definitely. I'm pretty active over on X. Paula Y Scanlon, you can keep following along with what I'm doing, but I think what just happened just shows us exactly, exactly what I was saying earlier is that the Trump administration stands on business. They don't just make promises, they deliver on them. And this is just another example of that. And so again, I'm grateful for his leadership. I'm grateful that he's president and everything really that he's done I've been so pleased with in the last couple of months. And I know we're technically still early on in the administration, so I'm excited to see what else leadership gets up to.

Jack Posobic (23:03)

And last question, Paula, as a Gen Z New Yorker, will you be supporting Zoran Mondame later this year?

Paula Scanlon (23:12)

I mean, I sure hope you guys would figure out how I would stand no Anyone but him. And in fact, I'm going to be working very hard to make sure he's not elected. So if anyone wants to come in New York and help out with that, please let me know. We're going to, we're going to make sure socialism does not take over, probably communism doesn't take over New York City.

Jack Posobic (23:29)

Absolutely. All right, folks, Paula Scanlan. Give her a follow. Incredible news, the bbb. We've got Rich Barrister coming up next here. Human Events Daily on Real America's Voice. Where's Jack? Where is he? Jack, I want to see you. Great job, Jack. Thank you. What a job you do. You know, we have an incredible thing. We're always talking about the fake news and the band, but we have guys and these are the guys should be getting policies. All right, folks, Jack Posobic, here we are back live Human events daily, Washington, D.C. and what's Think it's time as he head towards America's birthday? I think it's time for a polling update. And what better way to do that than to bring on the people's pundit himself, Rich Barris, the founder and executive of the Big Data Poll. Rich, what's going on, man?

Rich Barris (24:28)

Living the dream as always, Jack. How about you?

Jack Posobic (24:31)

Happy birthday. I can't wait for America's, America's big beautiful birthday tomorrow. But, but Rich, when we're getting down to it, there's been a lot of back and forth about the president's poll numbers this month or, or I should say really during June going back and forth. And, and there are a lot of people making comments saying, hey, what's going on? You know, he's making some moves that a lot of people didn't expect. Are his numbers going up or his numbers going down? We have a clip that I want to show that kind of highlights this from cnn. Guys, let's run that.

Rich Barris (25:03)

I mean, every politician would like this number here especially to see it go up. How about compared to other presidents who were Republicans?

Carlos Hamlin (25:11)

Yeah, it's history making. It's history making. What are we talking about here? So why don't we look back? We have all the presidents, Republican presidents going back over the last 35, 36, 37 years. What are we talking about? GOP who strongly approved five months in. Look at this. George H.W. bush, Bush 41, 46%, Bush 43, 59. You see Trump the first term, 53. But look at this, 63%. He beats all the other Republicans on the board here. And I was looking even back since Reagan and get this, Donald Trump beats Ronald Reagan when it comes to the strongly approved five months. And of course, Reagan was coming off that high after that assassination attempt. So the bottom line is Donald Trump is making history with the Republican base. He is more beloved by this Republican base than any Republican base, loved any GOP president. Five months in it is history making.

Jack Posobic (26:03)

All right, Jack Sobeck, here we are back, and that's Rich Barrister. Rich, when we're looking at this, these numbers, and I've seen a lot of conservatives sharing this, I said, well, wait a minute, this is strong approval among Republicans, which is great and certainly what we want. Absolutely. But it doesn't really tell the whole story, does it?

Rich Barris (26:23)

No, it really doesn't. And you know, Jack, the problem with clips like that and arguments like that is that Trump's base is not only Republican. So there's a little bit of good news and a little bit of bad news for the President. The good news is there are also more Republicans under Donald Trump than we've, than we've ever measured. Democrats are in a registration collapse, but they're also in an identification collapse. When a pollster calls and asks, what, what do you identify as? Right. So there are no D plus. There should not be any D plus samples anymore because it doesn't exist in the real world. But that being said, Trump's base, and this is why he wins when nobody else can win. This is why he can win Michigan, this is why he can win Pennsylvania, why he can win Wisconsin. Right. Why he wins Ohio by 13 points, why he wins Iowa by 13 points, Florida, 13 point. You cannot win those states and not like that with those kind of numbers just from Republicans. You just can't do it. So Trump, he has gotten a base that is not just loyal to the Republican Party. So that's the, those are the people that you really have to watch. Because in truth, you know, his strong approval among Republicans has held pretty steady since he's been elected to his second term in office. Hasn't really moved.

Jack Posobic (27:39)

Well, and this is exactly who we spent, Rich, when I would have you on, you know, every week during the election. You know, we weren't really talking about his approval among Republicans because politics is a game of addition. And so the idea was all about building this coalition and expanding the MAGA tent out beyond the normal boundaries of just four, four Republicans or straight ticket Republicans. It was, how do you expand to those low prop voters? How do you expand working class in the key states? And seven out of seven of the swing states getting blacks and Hispanics on board where you were the first person years ago and a half a decade ago now to talk about how his Hispanics, particularly Hispanic men, and finally Pews, by the way, finally got out with this huge study saying, oh, wait, exactly. Barris has been saying all along that, that Trump was going to win Hispanic men, which he did. And, and, and so there's this, this huge gap though, I think, between a lot of those and which, which you really would see in independence. But you know, even then, a lot of these people, which, which you've talked about a lot, they're not the type of people that just answer polls on a regular basis even. It's very hard to poll those types of people. But the way we can, we can generate a way, the way we can measure this is through voting. You can see the way that they voted. So rich, for those people, this, this extra group of people that's been added to the strong Republican base. What's going on in those types? The independents, let's call them that. You know, where's their approval at? Because when I see the CNN piece, they're not talking about it at all.

Rich Barris (29:13)

No, they're not. Because of course, though, that's the group that wins or loses elections, Jack, that if you can get this group out, they're inclined to support, I don't say right wing candidates, but they're definitely inclined to support the Trump agenda. But what is that agenda and what, who are the, this group of independents and independent leaning? You know, they're really Republicans, but, you know, they lean that way. They just don't, they don't have no loyalty to the party whatsoever. And that's part, the reason why is part of who they are. They're very skeptical people. They're distrustful of government. They're distrustful of any. They didn't even want to vote because their number one reason is that their vote doesn't matter. Right. The system is what it is and their vote doesn't make a difference. Somebody like Donald Trump inspired them to go out and vote. And, and the Republican Party's number one job should be to hold on to those people. However, you know, I mean, it is what it is. We have to call it, we have to call balls and strikes here. Since the military strike in Iran, this group has has soured. I wouldn't say they're, they're gone, but they, they were not happy with that. This is what I think people lost sight of during that entire affair. And his numbers have improved again over the last week a little bit. But we'll we'll see what happens in the future. What generally happens when some, when, when there's an airstrike or, you know, even when America goes to war, you get a temporary, temporary rally around the flag effect. And that is typically fueled by people who may never vote for you, have never voted for you, but it's temporary. And, and they'll shoot over to somewhat approve, maybe, or, and they're typically not going to say they strongly approve, but they end up adding to the positive, your, your positive numbers. But it comes at the risk of potentially losing support among people who only and always vote for you. Right. So if you can get them out, that is the group we're, we, we obsessed over before the election, Jack. Those are the groups that Donald Trump could get out that we on your show over and over again said, you know, the Ron DeSantis cannot, Nikki Haley cannot. This group is, you know, Ohio River Valley. Right. Parts of Pennsylvania, southeastern Michigan. Just think about who these groups are, Jack. Southeast southeastern Michigan, from, you know, Dearborn to Saginaw and Macomb County. These are not pro military intervention people. In fact, when we pulled it, they made up the lion's share of the quarter of the country, said they wanted no role in the Middle east whatsoever. So, you know, Donald Trump was smart to move on from this or try to move on from this and get back to his domestic agenda because that's what they were screaming for him to do.

Jack Posobic (31:50)

Well, you know, it's, it's so interesting because anecdotally I, I had just two things to happen in the wake of all of this over the last, you know, couple of weeks here in, in the D.C. area is that I was, I was up and I was, I was driving around, I saw one of these. I know I saw one of these. It was, it was guy driving a pickup truck and on the bumper sticker it said, I'm not a Democrat, I'm not a Republican, I'm an American. And, and I'm like, that's the guy. That's the guy right there. He's driving a pickup truck. He's working class, he hates the parties. Hates the parties, and he loves America. That's the, that's the guy who's going to vote for Trump and not go out and vote for anyone else. So that's a Trump only voter. However, I also heard anecdotally from, I'll just say a friend of mine has a father who is more of the MSNBC persuasion, which of course, you know, and I'm always hearing their arguments but, you know, it's. What's interesting, though, is it's, it gives me insight into sort of how the average MSNBC viewer is thinking. And one of the things that I heard was on the back end of this was he loved the Iran strikes. He said, you know what, it was the right thing to do. It was the right time to do it. And after having talked to you about this dynamic, I said, I went back to my friend, I said, hey, do you think your dad would ever vote for. I know he's not up, but like, do you think your dad would ever vote for Trump on, on the back end of this? He's like, no, no, never. Absolutely not. So he could, he could, and he could agree with it. So, Rich, are you saying then that that's the kind of thing that might show up in polling as sort of a temporary, Temporary boost, a sugar high, this rally around the flag effect that exists for a limited amount of time, yet doesn't actually translate to voting behavior?

Rich Barris (33:39)

That's exactly right. And then also added to somebody like that would be like a Bill Kristol, metro Republican, identifies as a Republican, even though we know he's not somebody like that. You know, the needle would move a little bit, but this guy would never actually cast a ballot for Trump or most. Right. 95 of most Republicans. And there's also something else I should know. So it. Throughout the duration of Trump's second presidency, his strong disapproval rating among independents has not hit 40%. It did the weekend of the strikes. Right. So by Monday, it was, it was about 40. Now, that has come down again this week, and we'll see. But that is being fueled by the people who only. And if you get them out, they only vote for you.

Jack Posobic (34:27)

That is being true.

Rich Barris (34:29)

So you risk that guy, you risk, you know, but temporary support you for the support or temporary support of that guy, that gentleman that you just mentioned, you risk losing those people. Right. So again, move on.

Jack Posobic (34:43)

So you're saying, you're saying that his disapproval among independents hit its highest ever in its second. His second term, the weekend of those strikes when that took place and has gone down since. But independents were largely swinging against this.

Rich Barris (35:03)

Yeah, that's exactly right. And that's being fueled by those. They're not, They're Republican leaning, but they're not. They also say, and this will give you, this will give people some great insight. We all, every time somebody says they're an independent, always follow up and try to prod them about what their leanings are. And one of the questions that we ask is which party is more closely aligned with your views. But one of the response choices is that they share little in common with either party. You know, so they can either say that they lean more toward Republicans, more towards Democrats, maybe they're equal to both, or they share little in common with either party. That is the group that turns sour over these strikes. And that is the group, by the way, that always was a key group when we came, when I came on the show, I would tell you about this Trump or bus vote. That's where they come from because they're just so, you know, they're, they're so, they're disgruntled about the entire process. Right. So they don't, they don't like either party, they don't align with either party. So RFK had a nice chunk from this group, but Ron DeSantis.

Jack Posobic (36:07)

That'S your mom.

Rich Barris (36:08)

Because it's hard to get them out.

Jack Posobic (36:10)

Yeah, your MAHA margin in so many of the states, I mean, you've got suburbanites in that group. You've got people who are just kind of checked out. But I would imagine, I would imagine you have upper class, you know, sort of like upper middle class as well as working class group people who are just not invested in politics or people who are checked out because of the years of Biden, Obama, Bush, Romney and the rest. This is fascinating. We're walking you through the Trump coalition in the second term. Jack Posic, Rich Barris right back. Jack is a great guy. He's written a fantastic book. Everybody's talking about it. Go get it. And he's been my friend right from the beginning of this whole beautiful event. And we're going to turn it around and make sure our country. Amen.

Riley Gaines (37:04)

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Jack Posobic (38:03)

Jack was so Big. We're back with Rich Barris. And, you know, I want people to understand that when we're digging into the numbers like this, there's a reason for it. People say, why are you going so granular? Why are you splitting the hair? And you're going so deep. I said, guys, listen, we live in a polarized country, a polarized country with a polarized electorate. Much of this because media consumption, generational shift, demographic shift, you could talk about that pillar blow in the face. And we talk about all the time. However, what we want to focus on here is winning. And if you want to win, you have to put together a coalition of 50% plus one. And so how did President Trump get to there in all of the swing states, seven out of seven of the swing states, and turn out the popular vote? Because he found a way to go pocket by pocket by pocket by pocket by pocket, put this all together together, and boom, put up across the board the most massive victory anyone's ever seen. And so that's why it's so key to watch the shift of these pockets, because these margins, they say, oh, you're just focusing on the margins. Yeah, it's called the margin of victory. The margin of victory. That's why I watch the margin, because that goes from winning an election to losing an election. Rich Barris, help me out here. You know, people are like, oh, why are you so focused on this? Once you. Because. Because this is winning versus losing. And I'm sorry, but I want to keep winning, and I don't ever want to stop winning.

Rich Barris (39:28)

And I think people don't understand, even though it's something I've been saying for years, is that the, the only thing that's consistent about political coalitions in this country is that they consistently evolve and you have to consistently observe them and watch. And usually, almost always, at least I believe this, it's because voters are making a rational policy choice or they're making a rational choice to not vote at all. And, you know, Pew research study that you cited in the last segment, Jack, that study showed exactly what we had been, you know, screaming about for two years, that there is actually more of these voters that Republicans could go get if they were focused. And if they understood what we were saying and understood the significance of it, had all of them gone out to vote, it would not have been a, you know, marginal popular vote win. It would have been an overwhelming one anywhere. Five to seven points. I mean, could you imagine a Republican presidential candidate winning the popular vote by 5 to 7 points? And you have to understand where these people are located. They're disproportionately, they disproportionately impact the Electoral College. So when you get these voters out in greater numbers, you're impacting the electoral College count more than you would think, more than you would expect. Right. Just from adding X number of voters, how could it swing a state that much? Because they tend to live in the state states that matter. And so I don't know what matters more.

Jack Posobic (40:57)

Right.

Rich Barris (40:58)

And it's also important to know that Republicans are better, they're on a timer with these voters because, and we, we showed this and demonstrated this during the Republican primary. These voters told us that there really, at that time was only one candidate they would go out and vote for, and that was Donald Trump. So the Republican Party's job right now, all right, do what you got to do legislatively, then move on. And on the ground behind the scenes, your job is to convince these voters that party is becoming more like Donald Trump. And that is really the entire argument. You have got to make these people understand that the Republican Party's changed. It's going to take up Trump's banner when he's, when he's no longer in office and he's going to move forward. If they do that, you're talking about a Roosevelt like coalition that will endure for 30 years. So, I mean, that's why we obsess over these numbers, folks. Do you know the difference between the pendulum swinging back and forth temporarily like it often does in American politics, or sometimes a big realignment comes around and that big realignment is historical and it changes the trajectory of the electorate like it did for Roosevelt, by the way. It did so for Reagan as well. You know, Republicans were kind of in the wilderness then. Reagan ushered in something Obama, by the way, was very jealous of. He ushered in a 30 year change in the American psyche. And the, he got people to come out and vote Republican that had never in the past ethnic Catholics, ethnic Irish.

Jack Posobic (42:24)

Right.

Rich Barris (42:24)

So he changed the, he changed that equation that, that you were just talking about. And that's what Trump has the. He already did. It's just that now Republicans need to, you know, be able to pick that up and also expand on it because you can, the numbers are there to expand on it.

Jack Posobic (42:40)

And I, I think this is so important. Rich, you got to write this up, brother. Because this, this is one of the most important things that I think you've uncovered. And it's something that, but I think a lot of us can sort of sense it when we're out there, whether it's on social media or just reading comments and emails. But you've put it together in this package that you've uncovered that I think is so important, because, again, just like anything else in politics, when you when you take an action that benefits that one group over another in your coalition, that runs the risk of costing other members of the group. RICH Barris, where can people go to find you and get all of these incredible insights?

Rich Barris (43:22)

Best place we're everywhere, Jack, but the best place is on locals. Peoplespundent.locals.com peoplespundant.locals.com thanks as always, brother. Happy independence.

Jack Posobic (43:32)

RICH and from the Posos to the Barrises, Happy Independence Day. Ladies and gentlemen, as always, you have my permission to lay ashore. It.