Jack Posobic (22:56)
All right, Jack Masopic, we are back here. Human Events Daily. The global sit rep continues. And of course no global sit rep would be complete without going into the current status of the Ukraine, Ukraine, Russia fight this proxy war between the United States and Russia that the United States has been supporting, that NATO has been supporting Since February of 2022, a massive conflagration and conflict which began under the Biden administration and their failed diplomacy and failed rapprochement with the Russians. Now as you heard President Trump say just moments ago in that clip, that the focus, strategic focus of the United States really has shifted and the strategic focus of NATO even to an extent has shifted because as such America supplies most of military hardware to NATO as it is that they have now shifted. And the Patriot missiles have become a sort of political football almost in a sense in this shift. Because as the United States is backfilling those Patriot missiles to Israel, backfilling those Patriot missiles to US forces within the region, within the Middle east region, who then draws the short straw? Well, that's Ukraine. Ukraine is now unable to receive those Patriot missiles because there is a finite amount of these things. The United States bases, Al Adid and others were required to have those, those implements, these are Patriot missiles or those, those types of air interceptors, those air defense that we were talking about before. Well, Ukraine is going to have fewer and fewer of those because the United States isn't able to provide them as much. And the Patriot Arab defense batteries were the same Patriot defense batteries that we saw protecting the skies of Kiev and shooting down Russian missiles that were attempting to strike the capital of Ukraine. Now Russia has viewed all of this as a sign for them to be able to conduct further strikes into Kiev, further strikes into Odessa in the south along the Black Sea, because they realized that Ukraine is running low on their air defense capabilities. And again, it doesn't matter how high tech your targeting system is if you do not have the ammunition for it. And of course this is the entire point of attrition warfare which is practiced by the Russians. And in some extent you could see that that same doctrine being employed by the Iranians firing missile barrages intended to SAP the resources of this high tech air defense to be able to defeat them through attrition, defeat their enemy through attrition rather than direct combat. So at the same time, while the world's attention was focused on the Middle East, Russia was able to take over 350 miles of territory in June of this year, the most since Last September, gaining another 200 miles. In May they've expanded their incursion into Sumy oblast with potentially 50 to 60,000 Russian troops involved and have the ability for a breakout here should President Putin choose to do so. With various areas along those eastern Russian speaking provinces where the Russian army and these Russian forces are pushing back against the Ukrainian front lines. At the same time Ukraine is defending with fortifications, drones, light vehicles and counter drone systems. We also saw that Operation Spiderweb, that was the Ukrainian deep strike of drones into Russia, damaging long range bomber bases. Very similar to the operation that Israel took undertook in Iran just a few months later. Now the drone warfare strikes have continued, the air warfare has continued, the air war has really ratcheted up. 315 drone strikes and seven missile strikes on Kiev and Odessa just on June 10th alone in one night, a record high for June saw over 5,400 drone strikes across Ukraine from the Russian advance. So it really providing that suppression of Ukrainian air defenses and ability for Ukraine to conduct command and control as the Russian army advances along the front lines. In fact, in a one night salvo, 500 missiles and drones, including cruise missiles and hypersonic missiles, targeted cities like Kremuchuk. And of course, even if Ukraine is able to to intercept several hundred of these, that means the large amount of the large number in these salvos again is intended for suppression of the air defenses. So Russia has massed currently current estimates say that Russia has 695,000 troops on the front, another 121,000 in reserve, 9,000 new troops being added and recruited and coming through their pipeline per month. So these are huge, huge numbers of soldiers that Russia is churning forward into their military machine as it's sweeping across the, grinding across, I should say grinding across these eastern provinces. Now there's a question about will Russia launch this massive offensive? And I've said that Putin will likely make this determination by the end of July and then look for an August offensive should he choose to do so. And this could be done in terms of a breakout in Sumai along the, along the area near Kharkov. And of course the question would be is this going to be a major breakout or would this be potentially smaller pockets of breakouts again choosing to continue this slow grind of attrition, slowly taking territory also all while grinding forward with the attempt really being to attrite Ukraine of their ability to conduct materiel, their ability to again use these missiles and their ability to field soldiers on the front lines. Of course, as Kamala Harris once told us, that Ukraine is a small country and Russia is a big country. And this is true. Russia has a much larger population with which they can use to continually recruit new soldiers, while Ukraine does not. So to an extent, the amount of material, whether it be tanks, whether it be bombs, whether it be missiles, whether it be bullets that NATO sends to backfill Ukraine, it only is able to go so far because Ukraine is still reliant on its own population for soldiers and military age. Males, of course, are becoming a rarer and rarer commodity. And this is why you see press gangs, this is why you see recruitment numbers being pushed so hard within Ukraine. Russia, of course, is continuing these offenses. So the most likely scenario at this point is a high likelihood of a limited summer offensive. And this would mean Russian advances along select sectors, increased use of artillery, drones, the air warfare and pressure on Ukraine's supply lines within those frontline regions. Again, Russia focusing on the eastern Russian speaking provinces, the ones that have been Lugansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kharkov and Kherson that have been annexed by the Russian Federation to begin with. But of course, the question is, will there be negotiations, will there be ceasefire? And of course Russia is seeking as much position and as much leverage as they can gain before they are able to hold those ceasefire talks or going into any ceasefire talks or negotiations with the Americans before one is decided or held. So it's very clear that Russia is pursuing a two track strategy here where it's diplomatic on one end. So meeting with, willing to meet with Witkoff, willing to meet with the Ukrainians. President Putin having even said at one point during the Iran Israel crisis that he was willing to meet with Zelenskyy himself. But we're also seeing the Russian military pursue their objectives on the battlefield. And the question is how much leverage will they receive before they sit down for any final negotiations. For Ukraine itself, the question for them is going to hinge on Western aid and a massive, massive push for further Western aid. This has been something that will become a political issue because President Trump campaigned, of course, as we know, on ending the Ukraine war and shutting this down. Obviously he has said that it has become, become more catastrophic because neither side is willing to back down. But of course, the real question for Ukraine is how can they continue fighting if the United States does not continue their aid push. And some analysts have suggested that in fact this may be the reason that NATO has put forward its 5% goals on military defense spending. So suddenly, remember, NATO didn't want to pursue this 5% goal for military defense for years and years and years and years. And President Trump has always been pushing for it. So suddenly, at the very moment, at the very moment that Ukraine needs more aid and the United States is potentially not able to do so because of the need to backfill Patriot missiles and others within the military Middle east region, well, suddenly NATO, the European countries say that they're going to increase their defense spending. Could it be then and would the assessment make sense that the reason they're increasing their defense spending is, is not because they want to defend themselves, but because those same European countries, particularly in Western Europe, so think France and Germany want to use that excess spending to be able to backfill Ukrainians and be able to hand those weapons and materiel, tanks, bombs, missiles over to Ukraine. Even though of course the point of NATO is defense rather than offense. And as a key point here, and even Western media has pointed this out, Russia has actually been targeting, in eastern Ukraine, has actually been targeting many of the resource facilities and resource deposits where Secretary Besant had gone over. And I was able to actually accompany him on this trip to Kiev for negotiations in the mineral deal. Well, Russia has now captured the second of four Ukrainian lithium deposits. So this, these key lithium deposits which came to, came to bear during the mineral deal and in negotiations, two of the four that exist with on Ukrainian territory have now been captured by the Russians. So real questions as to what, what Ukraine will be able to negotiate with if in fact those areas take are controlled by the Russians. All indications are that Russia is able to to control the narrative here and that ultimately this will not come to a cessation until there are key and direct negotiations between leaders, not just of Russia and Ukraine directly, but also between Russia and the United States directly. Once again, President Trump in the driver's seat. Is a very complicated world, very complex issues. But President Trump is the one who holds all the cards to continue to de escalate, destabilize or go for peace all in one bell Swoop. Jack right back with summer age.
