Is It POSSIBLE For A Republican To Win In California? - Human Events Daily with Jack Posobiec

Podcast Summary

Human Events Daily with Jack Posobiec

Episode: Is It POSSIBLE For A Republican To Win In California?
Date: March 19, 2026

Overview

This episode, hosted by Bo Davidson and Benny Ray Harmony (filling in for Jack Posobiec), explores the possibility of a Republican—or even an independent—winning the California gubernatorial race. The discussion is driven by interviews with Elaine Ciolatti (a businesswoman and independent gubernatorial candidate) and polling expert Rich Baris. The hosts also dive into current Capitol Hill happenings, the Iran conflict, Antifa funding investigations, and shifts within Republican and Democrat voter coalitions.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. State of National and International Affairs [01:37 - 07:11]

Diplomatic Activity: Discussion of recent visits by Japanese Prime Minister and Ireland's leader to the U.S., noting their neutrality and desire to maintain good relations with President Trump.
Capitol Hill Updates:
- Rand Paul's adversarial relationship with new Senator Markwayne Mullin, including a confrontation during a committee hearing. (Paul was the only Republican to vote against Mullin's confirmation.)
- John Fetterman's unusual alignment with GOP on some issues, fueling speculation about potential party defection.
- Cory Booker's failed effort to limit President Trump's war powers in Iran (vote failed 47-53).
- Ongoing Department of Homeland Security funding issues affecting federal agencies, especially airports.
- U.S. deploying A-10 Warthogs and Apaches to counter Iranian drones; administration requesting $200 billion more for the conflict.

Notable Quote:

"John Fetterman... has seemed to be the only voice of reason or sanity in the Democratic Party."
— Bo Davidson [04:09]

2. California Gubernatorial Race: Can a Republican or Independent Win?

Guest: Elaine Ciolatti, CA Gubernatorial Candidate [09:23 - 19:17]

Democratic Fracture: Elaine notes the Democratic field is crowded and fractured, with no consolidated frontrunner; the "jungle primary" allows the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, to advance.
Backroom Debate Dealings: Democrats are accused of organizing private debates to elevate their preferred candidates (Swalwell, Mahan) and exclude others, including Elaine and other independents/reformers.
Key Issues in California:
1. Safe streets: Widespread business closures, need for security, and effective economic development.
2. Corruption & Fiscal Mismanagement: Missing funds ($750 billion), lack of audits, and the need for greater accountability in Sacramento.
3. Tax Structure: Heavy reliance on billionaires for state revenue—possible loss of $122 billion/year if they leave due to new taxes.
Role of NGOs and Nonprofits: These entities divert vast sums without oversight, contributing to fraud and lack of public accountability.
Cultural Reflection: Hollywood's DEI mandates and narrative control in film, exemplified by an Oscar-winning film supportive of Antifa, symbolize the extent of leftist influence and lack of creativity.

Notable Quotes:

"This jungle primary allows for someone like me pulling at 4.6% as an independent, which is as high as Katie Porter and Chad Bianco, who've been in the race... for well over a year."
— Elaine Ciolatti [11:31]
"We have no businesses. All of our businesses are closed... They're stealing land. They have put all of our money into middlemen, NGOs, special interests, and nonprofit. All of that money is missing. It's upwards of $750 billion."
— Elaine Ciolatti [12:43]

3. FBI & IRS Crackdown on Nonprofits with Antifa Links [15:17 - 18:52; 21:55 - 24:39; 39:56 - 47:26]

Guests: Libby Emmons (The Post Millennial), Discussion with Host Team

CBS Scoop: FBI and IRS launching initiative to investigate nonprofit organizations for suspected domestic terrorism, especially Antifa links and tax fraud.
Antifa Funding: Historically difficult to track due to mutual aid and direct donations outside the standard charitable system; some NGOs are being used as untraceable slush funds.
Journalistic Insights: Libby Emmons stresses that Antifa is globally networked, shapeshifting as needed for political climates, and adept at inserting intermediary “walls” (e.g., “Wall of Moms” in Portland) to shield themselves from law enforcement.
Root Problem: Lax or non-existent audit requirements for many 501(c) entities, enabling possible misuse and shielding from accountability.

Notable Quotes:

"It's a leaderless kind of organization by design, so that anyone can take up the helm... And it's never just one issue. The issue is always overthrowing the American government."
— Libby Emmons [43:39]
"The money that's now going to Antifa and places like that is because it's completely unchecked with NGOs... they have no requirements to do an audit. What do you think is going to happen? Of course the money's going to go to terrorism."
— Elaine Ciolatti [16:00]

4. Polling Deep Dive: California’s Path for Republicans, Trump’s Challenges

Guest: Rich Baris, Pollster [25:46 - 38:01]

CA Gubernatorial Dynamics:
- Explains how California’s "top two" system could—due to Democratic infighting and a rightward trend in parts of the state—allow two Republicans to advance, shutting out Democrats entirely.
- Demographic shifts: Central Valley is no longer reliably blue; Orange County swinging back right under Trump.
- Key: Republican turnout and whether Democrats can consolidate behind a single candidate.
National Pulse on Iran Conflict:
- Trump’s coalition is showing fractures over his foreign policy; the "rally round the flag" effect is weak, opposition growing across the political spectrum.
- MAGA coalition’s demographic makeup is shifting; loyalty is high among a smaller base, but this is not enough for electoral victory—the "new MAGA" is significantly less diverse.

Notable Quotes:

"California kept shifting to the right. It's been happening under the radar for many years. If this trend continues... Democrats have got to learn even in a big blue state to consolidate behind a candidate. Otherwise they could split the vote too much and end up with two Republicans running."
— Rich Baris [28:44]
"The new MAGA, these other people that he risks losing in the coalition, they are how he got from negative 4.5% in the popular vote to about a point and a half... It's coalition building. It's tough."
— Rich Baris [34:07]
"With each day, the poll numbers are going to reflect negatively for the President… It’ll get worse as this time goes on."
— Rich Baris [37:57]

5. Cultural and Political Observations

Hollywood and Mandates:
Elaine points to the lack of originality and creative risk in California’s entertainment industry, driven by DEI mandates and political narratives.
CPAC Preview & Capitol Hill Events:
CPAC anticipated as the biggest yet, with extensive coverage promised.
State Dinner Scheduled:
President Trump is hosting the Japanese Prime Minister for a state dinner, signaling the diplomatic importance of the current moment.

Memorable Moments & Quotes with Timestamps

"Christ is king." — Jack Posobiec [00:52]
"Why would you say that to me?" — Rand Paul (as recounted) confronting Mullin [03:54]
"It's like this race of the tallest midget. It's ridiculous." — Elaine Ciolatti on the gubernatorial field [10:39]
"What are the qualifications at this point? If you can't make it, who do I have to sleep with to get on this debate?" — Elaine Ciolatti, satirizing debate access [19:07]
"Antifa is this global thing. It's sort of like a hydra; if you cut one head off, there's another one..." — Libby Emmons, on Antifa adaptability [41:30]
"Every time I talk about this on social media, people love it... Blackoutcoffee.com/poso." — Jack Posobiec, on his favorite coffee (sponsor, but illustrative of tone) [19:42]

Timestamps for Key Segments

[01:37] – Capitol Hill & national updates
[09:23] – Elaine Ciolatti interview: CA governor’s race
[15:17] – Nonprofits, Antifa, billionaires’ tax and state funding
[21:55] – CBS News: FBI/IRS investigation into Antifa-linked nonprofits
[25:46] – Rich Baris interview: State, national polling, California’s path for the GOP
[39:56] – Libby Emmons interview: Antifa’s funding, culture, and investigation outlook
[47:31] – Show wrapup and CPAC preview

Conclusion

This episode took a detailed look at contemporary California politics with a focus on the unusual viability of Republican and independent candidates in the state’s governor’s race due to Democratic fractures and shifting demographics. In addition, the show tracks the latest developments on Capitol Hill, America’s approach to Iran, and ongoing law enforcement actions against left-wing extremism and suspect nonprofit organizations. The tone is direct, at times combative, but rooted in concern over corruption, lack of transparency, and the shifting coalitions that are reshaping the American political landscape.

Podcast Summary

Human Events Daily with Jack Posobiec

Episode: Is It POSSIBLE For A Republican To Win In California?
Date: March 19, 2026

Overview

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. State of National and International Affairs [01:37 - 07:11]

Diplomatic Activity: Discussion of recent visits by Japanese Prime Minister and Ireland's leader to the U.S., noting their neutrality and desire to maintain good relations with President Trump.
Capitol Hill Updates:
- Rand Paul's adversarial relationship with new Senator Markwayne Mullin, including a confrontation during a committee hearing. (Paul was the only Republican to vote against Mullin's confirmation.)
- John Fetterman's unusual alignment with GOP on some issues, fueling speculation about potential party defection.
- Cory Booker's failed effort to limit President Trump's war powers in Iran (vote failed 47-53).
- Ongoing Department of Homeland Security funding issues affecting federal agencies, especially airports.
- U.S. deploying A-10 Warthogs and Apaches to counter Iranian drones; administration requesting $200 billion more for the conflict.

Notable Quote:

"John Fetterman... has seemed to be the only voice of reason or sanity in the Democratic Party."
— Bo Davidson [04:09]

2. California Gubernatorial Race: Can a Republican or Independent Win?

Guest: Elaine Ciolatti, CA Gubernatorial Candidate [09:23 - 19:17]

Democratic Fracture: Elaine notes the Democratic field is crowded and fractured, with no consolidated frontrunner; the "jungle primary" allows the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, to advance.
Backroom Debate Dealings: Democrats are accused of organizing private debates to elevate their preferred candidates (Swalwell, Mahan) and exclude others, including Elaine and other independents/reformers.
Key Issues in California:
1. Safe streets: Widespread business closures, need for security, and effective economic development.
2. Corruption & Fiscal Mismanagement: Missing funds ($750 billion), lack of audits, and the need for greater accountability in Sacramento.
3. Tax Structure: Heavy reliance on billionaires for state revenue—possible loss of $122 billion/year if they leave due to new taxes.
Role of NGOs and Nonprofits: These entities divert vast sums without oversight, contributing to fraud and lack of public accountability.
Cultural Reflection: Hollywood's DEI mandates and narrative control in film, exemplified by an Oscar-winning film supportive of Antifa, symbolize the extent of leftist influence and lack of creativity.

Notable Quotes:

"This jungle primary allows for someone like me pulling at 4.6% as an independent, which is as high as Katie Porter and Chad Bianco, who've been in the race... for well over a year."
— Elaine Ciolatti [11:31]
"We have no businesses. All of our businesses are closed... They're stealing land. They have put all of our money into middlemen, NGOs, special interests, and nonprofit. All of that money is missing. It's upwards of $750 billion."
— Elaine Ciolatti [12:43]

3. FBI & IRS Crackdown on Nonprofits with Antifa Links [15:17 - 18:52; 21:55 - 24:39; 39:56 - 47:26]

Guests: Libby Emmons (The Post Millennial), Discussion with Host Team

CBS Scoop: FBI and IRS launching initiative to investigate nonprofit organizations for suspected domestic terrorism, especially Antifa links and tax fraud.
Antifa Funding: Historically difficult to track due to mutual aid and direct donations outside the standard charitable system; some NGOs are being used as untraceable slush funds.
Journalistic Insights: Libby Emmons stresses that Antifa is globally networked, shapeshifting as needed for political climates, and adept at inserting intermediary “walls” (e.g., “Wall of Moms” in Portland) to shield themselves from law enforcement.
Root Problem: Lax or non-existent audit requirements for many 501(c) entities, enabling possible misuse and shielding from accountability.

Notable Quotes:

"It's a leaderless kind of organization by design, so that anyone can take up the helm... And it's never just one issue. The issue is always overthrowing the American government."
— Libby Emmons [43:39]
"The money that's now going to Antifa and places like that is because it's completely unchecked with NGOs... they have no requirements to do an audit. What do you think is going to happen? Of course the money's going to go to terrorism."
— Elaine Ciolatti [16:00]

4. Polling Deep Dive: California’s Path for Republicans, Trump’s Challenges

Guest: Rich Baris, Pollster [25:46 - 38:01]

CA Gubernatorial Dynamics:
- Explains how California’s "top two" system could—due to Democratic infighting and a rightward trend in parts of the state—allow two Republicans to advance, shutting out Democrats entirely.
- Demographic shifts: Central Valley is no longer reliably blue; Orange County swinging back right under Trump.
- Key: Republican turnout and whether Democrats can consolidate behind a single candidate.
National Pulse on Iran Conflict:
- Trump’s coalition is showing fractures over his foreign policy; the "rally round the flag" effect is weak, opposition growing across the political spectrum.
- MAGA coalition’s demographic makeup is shifting; loyalty is high among a smaller base, but this is not enough for electoral victory—the "new MAGA" is significantly less diverse.

Notable Quotes:

"California kept shifting to the right. It's been happening under the radar for many years. If this trend continues... Democrats have got to learn even in a big blue state to consolidate behind a candidate. Otherwise they could split the vote too much and end up with two Republicans running."
— Rich Baris [28:44]
"The new MAGA, these other people that he risks losing in the coalition, they are how he got from negative 4.5% in the popular vote to about a point and a half... It's coalition building. It's tough."
— Rich Baris [34:07]
"With each day, the poll numbers are going to reflect negatively for the President… It’ll get worse as this time goes on."
— Rich Baris [37:57]

5. Cultural and Political Observations

Hollywood and Mandates:
Elaine points to the lack of originality and creative risk in California’s entertainment industry, driven by DEI mandates and political narratives.
CPAC Preview & Capitol Hill Events:
CPAC anticipated as the biggest yet, with extensive coverage promised.
State Dinner Scheduled:
President Trump is hosting the Japanese Prime Minister for a state dinner, signaling the diplomatic importance of the current moment.

Memorable Moments & Quotes with Timestamps

"Christ is king." — Jack Posobiec [00:52]
"Why would you say that to me?" — Rand Paul (as recounted) confronting Mullin [03:54]
"It's like this race of the tallest midget. It's ridiculous." — Elaine Ciolatti on the gubernatorial field [10:39]
"What are the qualifications at this point? If you can't make it, who do I have to sleep with to get on this debate?" — Elaine Ciolatti, satirizing debate access [19:07]
"Antifa is this global thing. It's sort of like a hydra; if you cut one head off, there's another one..." — Libby Emmons, on Antifa adaptability [41:30]
"Every time I talk about this on social media, people love it... Blackoutcoffee.com/poso." — Jack Posobiec, on his favorite coffee (sponsor, but illustrative of tone) [19:42]

Timestamps for Key Segments

[01:37] – Capitol Hill & national updates
[09:23] – Elaine Ciolatti interview: CA governor’s race
[15:17] – Nonprofits, Antifa, billionaires’ tax and state funding
[21:55] – CBS News: FBI/IRS investigation into Antifa-linked nonprofits
[25:46] – Rich Baris interview: State, national polling, California’s path for the GOP
[39:56] – Libby Emmons interview: Antifa’s funding, culture, and investigation outlook
[47:31] – Show wrapup and CPAC preview