Human Events Daily with Jack Posobiec

Episode: Operation Maduro: What Comes Next?
Date: January 5, 2026

Episode Overview

This explosive first episode of 2026 dissects the unprecedented U.S. military operation that captured and extracted Nicolás Maduro from Venezuela. Host Jack Posobiec, joined by Dan Caldwell (Senior Fellow for Foreign Policy at American Moment), analyses the ripple effects for Venezuela, the U.S., and the wider Western Hemisphere. The episode covers the operation’s military brilliance, its implications for regime change, oil diplomacy, migration, drugs, and American strategy moving forward. Correspondent David Zier reports live from Manhattan, where Maduro appears in court.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Spectacular Operation: Maduro’s Capture

• The United States military successfully extracted Nicolás Maduro from Caracas in a daring Special Operations mission, now on par with legendary global raids (Entebbe, Bin Laden, Captain Phillips).
• The operation’s integration of cyber warfare and advanced tactics underlined a new level of U.S. capability.
• Both Posobiec and Caldwell emphasize that while America’s recent large-scale invasions saw strategic failures, special operations have remained world-class.

“Just because we failed at a strategic level doesn't mean that we don't have the ability to pull off these spectacular operations...I would say it's one of the most spectacular operations in global history. I think it's up there with Israel's Entebbe raid.”
— Dan Caldwell [11:52]

• Cyber disruptions helped neutralize Chinese radars in Venezuela, as part of a “full spectrum operation.”

“...so many of the things that went down. You and I talk about this all the time. That, that was not done kinetically. A lot of this was done through cyber warfare.”
— Jack Posobiec [13:51]

2. Is This Regime Change? Or Just ‘Regime Alteration’?

• Despite Maduro’s capture, the “Chavismo” regime’s structure remains. Venezuela’s Vice President assumes power; most security and political apparatus is intact.
• Trump administration resists pressure for a full regime change; instead, they prefer to maintain stability over chaotic collapse, unlike Iraq or Libya.

“First, there isn't an opposition force in the country that can swoop in and take over the Venezuelan government...So right now, the best option forward is to maintain a semblance of stability by working with the Maduro regime and then over time, potentially engaging in a transition.”
— Dan Caldwell [20:12]

• Opposition favorite Machado is sidelined; U.S. to work with existing regime elements. Key Trump advisors like Stephen Miller are focused on stemming migration flows.

3. Motivations: Oil, Drugs, Security, and ‘America First’

• Venezuela’s vast oil reserves (largest in the world), their economic challenges, and U.S. corporate ambitions are center stage.
• Trump’s policy aims to revitalize Venezuela’s oil sector for U.S. users, promising benefits like lower gas, grocery, and housing prices at home.

“Cherchez le petrol... crude oil reserves, Venezuela, some of the largest absolutely in the world...this is one of the keys here.”
— Jack Posobiec [23:25]

• A significant increase in fentanyl seizures is linked to this strategic focus on breaking transnational drug networks.

“We seized enough fentanyl to kill 175 million American citizens. That is an increase in fentanyl seizures by over 30%.”
— Jack Posobiec [01:46]

• The administration and listeners debate whether this move will meaningfully stop drug or migrant flows into the U.S., with some skepticism expressed in email responses.

4. Listener Feedback & Conservative Split

• Posobiec reads listener emails reflecting a divide:
  • Some support intervention for stability, oil, or curbing drug flows.
  • Others fear a “slippery slope to forever war” or echo wariness about another foreign entanglement.

“Look, I think that it is good to be inherently skeptical and at the outset of any type of offensive military action, particularly considering the history of the last 30 years. However, that doesn't mean that military action and military options should always be off the table...”
— Dan Caldwell [30:18]

• Historical perspective: The U.S. has long prioritized dominance in the Western Hemisphere (Monroe Doctrine, Panama Canal). Caldwell and Posobiec argue this operation is consistent with traditional American grand strategy.

5. Live from NYC: Maduro’s Arraignment

• David Zier reports on Maduro and his wife’s courtroom appearance, arraignment details, charges (narco-terrorism, conspiracy, cocaine importation), and the heated atmosphere.
• The arraignment triggers media frenzy, security challenges, and allegations from Maduro of being a “prisoner of war.”
• Bail was declined for now; next hearing set for March 17th.

“And on his way out, Medoro was saying, you know, I was, I'm a prisoner of war...But we heard at the end someone in the audience shouted out, you're gonna pay for what you've done.”
— David Zier [39:41]

• The Southern District of New York will prosecute a case built over more than a decade, including connections to drug cartels and human rights violations.

6. Big Picture: What Comes Next?

• Caldwell and Posobiec caution against escalatory regime change, urge measured transitions, and flag critical next questions:
  • Will foreign actors (Russia, China, Iran) be expelled from Venezuela?
  • How will regional players like Colombia respond?
  • Will rapid elections happen, or will law and order be prioritized first?
  • Could the U.S. risk entanglement, or maintain stability in its own hemisphere?

“...the big question over the next coming weeks and months is how the president chooses to proceed with the existing Venezuelan regime and how deferential they are to us and then ultimately what the transition away from Maduro looks like.”
— Dan Caldwell [36:37]

• The hosts reiterate America’s right and need to dominate its hemisphere and ensure hemispheric security — referencing Panama Canal, historical interventions, and modern strategic threats.

“It is ours by right. It is ours by right of creation. We are the ones who made it. It is ridiculous. It is a national embarrassment that the United States does not maintain full control of the Panama Canal.”
— Jack Posobiec [34:10]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Military Prowess:
  “It's just absolutely stunning what these men are able to do even in the worst conditions.”
  — Jack Posobiec [16:09]

• On History’s Lessons:
  “If you want to understand world geopolitics, cherchez le petrol...look for the oil.”
  — Jack Posobiec [23:25]

• On Skepticism and Policy:
  “It is good to be inherently skeptical...But when we're talking about our own hemisphere, the stakes are fundamentally different, and I would say higher than in places like Iraq, Afghanistan, Eastern Europe, Ukraine.”
  — Dan Caldwell [30:18]

• On U.S. Dominance:
  “...the United States to be the great power of the Western Hemisphere and as such, it must act like the great power of the Western Hemisphere.”
  — Jack Posobiec [34:10]

• On Oil’s Domestic Impact:
  “If that Venezuelan oil floods back onto the market, you're going to see gas prices go down again. That'll help you directly. And that's going to lead to lower groceries, plus lower prices for housing...”
  — Jack Posobiec [44:12]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Opening & Episode Purpose: [00:02 – 02:49]
• Operation Maduro: What Happened?: [02:49 – 11:00]
• Military Tactics & Historical Comparisons: [11:00 – 17:30]
• Is This Regime Change?: [19:21 – 23:25]
• Oil, Economics, and Geopolitics: [23:25 – 27:08]
• Listener Emails & Conservative Divide: [27:16 – 30:18]
• Historical Context, Monroe Doctrine, Hemispheric Strategy: [30:18 – 36:37]
• What's Next for Venezuela & the Region: [36:37 – 37:58]
• Live: Maduro’s New York Arraignment: [38:18 – 44:04]
• Closing Analysis: Oil Prices, Domestic Policy: [44:12 – end]

Conclusion

Jack Posobiec’s first 2026 episode marks a turning point in U.S. policy towards Venezuela, blending military audacity with realpolitik restraint. While celebrating a major tactical win, the episode remains grounded in American interests — resource security, migration, drugs, and hemispheric dominance — and wary of the pitfalls of overreach. Whether Maduro’s fall is a new start for Venezuela, a win for “America First,” or a prelude to deeper chaos, remains the central, unresolved question.

Correspondents:

• Host: Jack Posobiec
• Guest Analyst: Dan Caldwell (American Moment)
• Live Reporter: David Zier (from Manhattan courthouse)