Human Events Daily with Jack Posobiec:

Tales of Regime Change: Afghanistan — Graveyard of Empires

Date: December 29, 2025
Guests: Joshua Lysak (co-author of Unhumans: Secrecy of Communist Revolutions and How to Crush Them)

Overview

This episode, the first in a special holiday series titled "Tales of Regime Change," explores Afghanistan's long history as the "graveyard of empires." Host Jack Posobiec and guest Joshua Lysak dissect the recurring pattern of great powers—Britain, the Soviet Union, and the United States—intervening in Afghanistan with visions of regime change, only to be humbled by unintended consequences, cultural resistance, and intractable terrain. The discussion assesses why the U.S. nation-building effort failed, how narratives shaped foreign policy decisions, and the enduring lessons of Afghanistan for American geopolitical ambitions.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Setting the Stage: Afghanistan and Its Pattern of Regime Change

Timestamps: 03:06–09:19

• Afghanistan's history is characterized by repeated interventions and regime changes carried out by foreign powers, from Alexander the Great to the British, Soviets, and Americans.
• Posobiec stresses: “You can enter Afghanistan on your own terms, but you do not leave on them.” (07:58)
• The episode aims to peel back the stories the U.S. tells itself to justify interventions, and how those narratives shape—and often mislead—policy.

Quote:
"The law of unintended consequences strolls in like it owns the place. Because when you try to rearrange nations from 7,000 miles away ... you end up creating forces you never anticipate." — Jack Posobiec, (06:37)

2. The Soviet Invasion and the Marxist Revolution

Timestamps: 09:19–16:21

• The story picks up in the 1970s: Afghanistan transitioned from monarchy to republican rule under Daoud Khan, whose progressive reforms antagonized traditionalists and edged the country towards the Soviet Union.
• The 1978 Saur Revolution saw the People's Democratic Party of Afghanistan (PDPA)—a Marxist-Leninist group—seize power with brutal purges, triggering fierce religious and tribal resistance.
• Soviet intervention followed in December 1979 to prop up the PDPA, unleashing a decade-long insurgency.

Quote:
"To maintain the early grip on power, the Afghan communists imprisoned, tortured and executed all who opposed. This is what they do." — Joshua Lysak, (12:02)

• Early U.S. support for the Mujahideen, as dramatized in "Charlie Wilson's War," funneled weapons and cash to anti-Soviet fighters, including groups that would later form the Taliban and al-Qaeda.
• Notably, the U.S. failed to consider "what happens next" after supporting local proxies:
  "It's like domino theory actually happens, but it happens with us and not the other way around." — Jack Posobiec, (18:29)

3. Aftermath: Power Vacuum and the Rise of the Taliban

Timestamps: 19:13–23:18

• The Soviet withdrawal in 1989 led not to peace, but to civil war among rival warlords—the U.S. walked away, leaving a shattered state.
• Taliban emerged in the early 1990s as a Pashtun-dominated movement, promising order amidst chaos, backed by Pakistani intelligence (ISI), Gulf funding, and (initially) even some American support.
• Taliban’s extremist policies included public executions, notably the execution of pedophile warlords involved in the widespread practice of "bacha bazi."

Quote:
"The victory over the Red army did not bring peace at all. What it brought was a quagmire, a civil war. And who rises to the top of this? The Taliban. They called themselves the students." — Jack Posobiec, (19:33)

• Al Qaeda, led by Osama bin Laden, found sanctuary with the Taliban, setting the stage for the 9/11 attacks.

4. America’s Forever War: The Failed Nation-Building Project

Timestamps: 27:32–38:06

• After 9/11, Operation Enduring Freedom toppled the Taliban, but the U.S. quickly transitioned to ambitious nation-building based on Western models of governance, ignoring Afghanistan’s deep-set tribal structures and cultural values.
• The U.S. and its allies aimed to install elections, women’s rights, liberal democracy, and "a free market economy, complete with women's rights, gay rights… even transgender rights” in a society fiercely opposed to these ideals.
• Both George W. Bush and George Soros backed the globalist project of remaking Afghanistan, although Soros wanted the UN, not the U.S., in the lead.

Quote:
"They just believed that democracy would pop up and flourish in... a low IQ tribal, hyper religious culture that’s existed for thousands of years and still practices cousin marriage." — Jack Posobiec, (28:17)

• Joshua Lysak outlines a “three-act structure” of regime change:
  1. Demonize, build the moral case to intervene
  2. Overthrow/regime change (often with violence)
  3. Attempt post-war consolidation, which rarely succeeds

Memorable Moment:
Discussion of U.S. troops forced to ignore the pedophilia of local warlords, highlighting the clash of Western and Afghan norms, and the moral contradictions in American policy.

Quote:
"There is very little cultural similarity between your New York Times subscriber and a pedophile warlord. Those are two different tribes, different realities even, and they simply do not mix." — Joshua Lysak, (32:36)

5. Collapse: The 2021 Withdrawal and the Return of the Taliban

Timestamps: 38:06–40:56

• In 2021, the U.S. withdrawal precipitated the swift collapse of Afghan government institutions; the Taliban seized Kabul without resistance, exposing the “political illusion” that the West had built anything lasting.
• The hosts lambaste Washington for blaming anyone but themselves, failing to ask if the problem was the story they told themselves: that American values are universally adaptable.

Quote:
"The ministries, the armies, the police, the courts. It was all fake, as the kids say. It was all fake and gay because it collapsed in days." — Jack Posobiec, (38:59)

6. The Power and Limits of Narrative in Regime Change

Timestamps: 40:56–47:24

• Lysak elevates the concept of "stories" shaping both policy and self-deception:
  “To quote Mike Cernovich, all media is narrative. To quote Joshua Lysik, all history is ghostwritten.” — Joshua Lysak, (40:56)
• Posobiec, referencing his own experience at Guantanamo Bay, insists the Taliban and al-Qaeda were driven by genuine, irreconcilable ideological commitments:
  “I saw these guys up close and personal ... They fully are committed to radical Islam ... and that was the story that beat America in Afghanistan for 20 years.” — Jack Posobiec, (44:04)
• The episode closes with parallels to the American Revolution—geography and culture shape the fate of empires, not outside plans.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “You can enter Afghanistan on your own terms, but you do not leave on them.” — Jack Posobiec (07:58)
• “All history is ghostwritten ... specifically by the victors who can afford to hire the ghost.” — Joshua Lysak (40:56)
• “The graveyard of empires doesn’t beat outsiders. It outlasts them, and it outlasts them every time.” — Jack Posobiec (45:49)
• “The blank slate does not exist. It never has.” — Jack Posobiec (36:27)
• “When you look at it from a military perspective, it was the George Soros angle that kept failing...” — Jack Posobiec (35:23)

Structure & Flow

• 00:52–03:06 – Introduction and montage of historical and news footage, setting the storied context of Afghanistan.
• 03:06–09:19 – Posobiec frames Afghanistan as the “graveyard of empires” and introduces the "Tales of Regime Change" series.
• 09:19–16:21 – Lysak recounts the fall of the Afghan monarchy, the Marxist Saur Revolution, Soviet invasion, and birth of the Mujahideen.
• 16:21–23:18 – The consequences of U.S. Cold War policy, Taliban’s rise, and how unintended effects spiral.
• 27:32–38:06 – Analysis of America’s failed nation-building, the naivete of imposing Western values, and the misreading of Afghan society.
• 38:06–40:56 – The 2021 withdrawal, collapse of the U.S.-backed regime, the rapid Taliban takeover.
• 40:56–47:24 – Reflections on narrative, storytelling, and why external ambitions fail against Afghanistan’s enduring realities.

Useful for Listeners Who Haven't Heard the Episode

This episode provides a deeply critical, story-driven analysis of America's intervention in Afghanistan, drawing connections between decades of policy, ideology, and the hard limits imposed by foreign cultures and geography. The hosts assert that recurring blind spots in Washington—hubris, universalism, ignorance of local realities—lead to the repeated failure of grand nation-building projects. Rich in historical context, the discussion underscores the need for humility, historical memory, and skeptical scrutiny of the narratives that drive American foreign policy.

Next in Series: Another regime change story, another country, and another hard lesson.