Podcast Summary:

Identity/Crisis – Israel 2026: The Next Elections and What’s at Stake
Host: Yehuda Kurtzer
Guest: Tani Frank, Director, Center for Judaism and State Policy, Shalom Hartman Institute
Recording Date: October 28, 2025
Topic: The political trajectory leading to Israel's 2026 elections, the shifting landscape after years of war and upheaval, and what’s truly at stake for Israeli democracy, society, and religion-state policy.

Episode Overview

Yehuda Kurtzer and guest Tani Frank dive deep into Israeli society’s fraught journey toward its anticipated 2026 national elections. Informed by the wars of the previous years, shifting alliances, and polarized politics, the conversation unpacks why these elections matter, what may be possible if there’s a window for real change, and the potential—plus pitfalls—of moving past "just not Bibi" politics.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Atmosphere Ahead of 2026 Elections

• Lingering Uncertainty: Kurtzer opens by highlighting the fragility and unpredictability of Israeli democracy, wondering if elections will even happen on schedule (01:06).
• Shifting Hope: Frank identifies a perceptible change since the ceasefire: "People have shifted, you know, from losing hope and not being able to know what's going to be happening tomorrow to, well now we need to understand what we do with what so called the day after here in Israel." (07:29)

2. The Evolution of Political Camps

• Collapse of the "Two Camps" Model: The binary of "pro-" and "anti-Netanyahu" no longer captures public sentiment. The war and coalition politics have blurred prior lines.
• Rise of a "Zionist Alliance": Frank describes an emerging movement seeking to break the opposition/coalition dichotomy: "There's a growing movement ... who come from Gaza and understand that we cannot just keep fighting each other. We need to work together and we need to force that on the political system." (08:34)

3. The Risks and Limitations of Centrist Consensus

• Dangers of 'Unity': Kurtzer questions whether politics focused on unity and consensus can effectively differentiate itself from Netanyahu’s brand. He references Gantz’s recent New York Times op-ed lauding Netanyahu’s war decisions, noting, "You lose the ability to differentiate yourself from the prime minister you’re trying to defeat." (11:37)
• Public Exhaustion: Frank emphasizes, "People are tired, people are exhausted ... We fought each other before October 7th, and then that happened and people were fighting next to each other." (12:35)

4. Policy Gaps and the Struggle for Positive Vision

• Lack of Policy Implications: Kurtzer bluntly notes, “The contest right now for Israel's political future is not between right and left. It's between right and, at best, center right." (15:11)
• Narrow Focus: Frank laments that the only common ground seems to be on Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) enlistment and exclusions, leading to political postures like Lapid suggesting the disenfranchisement of Haredim who don't serve in the army—an "alarming" and "anti-democratic" development. (18:41, 20:00)

5. Civil Rights, Representation, and Accountability

• Central Civil Rights Issues Ignored: Kurtzer calls out, “The central civil rights struggle in this country is about Palestinians, citizens of Israel, non-citizens in the West Bank, the reconstruction of Gaza. But any time you want to rise to power...you have to look over your right shoulder...” (22:57)
• Accountability Vacuum: Frank and Kurtzer discuss the lack of accountability for government failure on October 7th—with Bibi as the unscathed exception. "One of the things that Bennett is pushing forward ... the first thing that he would do as prime minister is to establish and to form that new Vadat Hakira, that inquire committee." (27:34)

6. The Return of Naftali Bennett

• Resurgence Explained: Bennett’s comeback is tied to his perceived "stateness" (mamlachtiyut): "A commitment to the state as its own kind of commitment." (25:06)
• Statism vs. Sectarianism: The current government operates for its coalition sectors, not for the state as a whole.

7. Religion and State: Prospects for Reform

• Persistent Polarization: Despite talk of sidelining Haredi parties, Frank argues that's not enough for real change in religion-state relations: “The fact that we are polarized just push people from both camps into more extreme positions." (30:20)
• Decentralization as Hope: Both agree progress may come from empowering localities in religious affairs, rather than securing a broad national consensus.

8. Looming Threats: Judicial Reform, Democratic Culture, and Legitimacy

• Judicial Reform Returns: Kurtzer worries that a restored, emboldened Netanyahu will renew efforts to weaken the Supreme Court. “If Netanyahu's political power continues to grow ... we’ll see a return to the aggressive strategy of pushing forward the judicial reform." (32:46)
• Waning Protest Movement: Both see the public's exhaustion, and reunification after war, potentially sapping energy from protest against anti-democratic moves.

9. The Bibi/Trump Dynamic and International Influence

• Bibi’s Manipulation: Kurtzer posits that Netanyahu benefits from US pressure when it aligns with his interests, even if it means giving credit to Trump for ending the war: "First of all, I don't think it's a crazy theory...He needed someone to force it on him, to be looked at as something that is being enforced." (36:22)
• Trump’s Popularity: Tani Frank states bluntly, "Trump is not looked at as someone from the outside who would force policies in Israel. He's one of the most popular people in Israel from both sides." (36:22)

10. Window for Real Reform: Imagining a Post-Netanyahu Government

• The Need for Irreversible Change: Frank stresses that any new government would have a “very short window of opportunity” and must focus on changes that are hard to undo. “You need, if we can say that that’s a thing in policy, irreversible changes.” (39:40)
• Top Priorities:
  • Decentralize Religious Authority: Empower local governments to choose their own rabbis, allocate resources, and offer pluralistic services, reducing the power of centralized (often ultra-Orthodox dominated) religious councils.
  • Recognize Alternative Jewish Life: Legalize and support non-Rabbanut options for marriage, conversion, and burial, providing budgets to liberal and pluralistic communities. (39:40)
  • Structural Reforms: Move systemic power away from national-level institutions to municipalities to reflect diverse local Jewish practice.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Changed Mood Since the Ceasefire
  “People have shifted...we need to understand what we do with what so called the day after here in Israel.”
  – Tani Frank, (07:29)

• On the Limitations of Israeli Polls
  "You can't trust the polls. And it's...Midvar Sheker Dilhak...We are moving away from believing the polls."
  – Tani Frank, (08:34)

• On the Dangers of Unity Politics
  "You're basically writing the script for Netanyahu to be able to resist any of his competitors, including Benny Gantz. You lose the ability to differentiate yourself from the prime minister you're trying to defeat."
  – Yehuda Kurtzer, (11:37)

• On the Central Civil Rights Struggle
  “The central civil rights struggle in this country is about Palestinians, citizens of Israel, non-citizens in the West Bank, the reconstruction of Gaza. But anytime you want to rise to power...every time that happens, it continues to drive support back to the leader of the largest right wing party in Israel, which is Netanyahu.”
  – Yehuda Kurtzer, (22:57)

• On Accountability
  "They do not see themselves as accountable to basically anything that happens. So ministers can go and protest and demonstrate against their own government, even if they're the government."
  – Tani Frank, (28:43)

• On Political Pragmatism
  “If we can say that that's a thing in policy, irreversible changes. I mean, things that would not be reversed easily. And that has to do with structures.”
  – Tani Frank, (39:40)

Key Timestamps

• [01:06] – Setting the political scene and context for 2026 elections.
• [07:29] – Tani Frank’s analysis: mood shift post-ceasefire and new future-orientation.
• [08:34] – Evaluation of polling and new political alliances.
• [11:37] – Risks of consensus politics and Gantz’s NYT op-ed.
• [15:11] – Moving beyond “Anyone but Bibi”.
• [18:41] – Lapid's controversial stance on Haredi voting rights.
• [22:57] – Civil rights and the difficulties of coalition-building with Haredi and Arab parties.
• [25:06] – “Mamlachtiyut” (stateness) as a missing value.
• [27:34] – Calls for accountability and forming an investigative committee.
• [30:20] – Prospects for religion/state separation and empowerment of municipalities.
• [32:46] – Prospects and risks of renewed judicial reform efforts.
• [36:22] – Bibi, Trump, and Israeli politics’ relationship with America.
• [39:40] – Essential reforms: decentralization and irreversible legislative change.

Conclusion

This episode reveals a society at a crossroads, where the drama surrounding Netanyahu’s tenure, the politics of exhaustion, and battles over democracy and pluralism intermingle. Both hope and apprehension are palpable. If change comes, it must seize a slim window for real, structural reform—especially on the fraught issues of religion and state—before old patterns reassert themselves.