Podcast Summary: What is Netanyahu Doing? with Michael Koplow
Podcast: Identity/Crisis (Shalom Hartman Institute)
Host: Yehuda Kurtzer
Guest: Michael Koplow (Chief Policy Officer, Israel Policy Forum)
Date: September 16, 2025
Episode Overview
This episode examines Israel's current posture in its ongoing conflict with Hamas, especially following a high-profile Israeli airstrike targeting Hamas leadership in Qatar. Host Yehuda Kurtzer and guest Michael Koplow discuss the legacy of Israel’s disengagement from Gaza 20 years ago, the political calculus of Prime Minister Netanyahu, the entanglements with Qatar, US policy under President Trump, and the shifting dynamics within the Israeli right and its coalition. The analysis is contextualized within the seemingly perpetual and paradoxical state of Israeli policy, and the regional and international fallout from these decisions.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Disengagement from Gaza: Historical Reflection
- 20th Anniversary Reflection: Yehuda reflects on the 2005 Gaza disengagement, noting its "useful punctuation mark" in the conflict's history and its long-term impacts on the Israeli-Palestinian dynamic, religious Zionist ideology, and the rise of Hamas.
[01:06–04:00]
2. Striking Hamas in Qatar: What's the Strategy?
- Broad Israeli Support: Michael highlights that Israelis nearly unanimously back targeting Hamas leaders, wherever they are, but expresses skepticism about the rationale that such strikes will push Hamas to negotiate.
- “There are lots of reasons to kill these guys, but it hasn't made them back down. And I'm not sure that this will either.” – Michael Koplow [07:54]
- Mixed Messaging: Criticism of the Israeli government’s contradictory public messaging (“killing negotiators will help negotiations”) and pattern of policy flip-flops.
- Example: Shift from only accepting a partial deal to only wanting a comprehensive deal.
[05:31–08:54]
- Example: Shift from only accepting a partial deal to only wanting a comprehensive deal.
3. US Policy, Trump, and the Strike
- US Involvement: Discussion of conflicting reports about US knowledge of the strike, and the extraordinary nature of either possible scenario (the US knowing or not-knowing about the operation).
- “No matter which version of these events is the correct one, it's extraordinary either way.” – Koplow [12:11]
- Trump’s Stance Toward Netanyahu: Exploration of why Trump maintains support for Netanyahu, even when his usual pattern is to quickly turn on disagreeable allies.
- Possible factors: close relationships (e.g., Jared Kushner), personal identification with Netanyahu amid perceived persecution, and emotional resonance with Israeli hostages.
- “Prime Minister Netanyahu... seems to get away with a lot of things that other world leaders do not.” – Koplow [13:20] [08:54–15:01]
4. Netanyahu’s Calculus: Perpetual War vs. Total Victory
- Political Survival: Michael argues Netanyahu has a vested interest in continuing the war, as ending it would expose him to political accountability for October 7 and its aftermath.
- “He does not want to have to face accountability...as long as the fighting is going on, we can't have any sort of commission, no accountability.” [21:15]
- Strategic Implications: Distinction between seeking ‘total victory’ (elimination of Hamas) and perpetuating the war as a political end in itself.
- Consensus that absolute military victory is now implausible, and IDF leadership is pushing for a partial deal. [16:28–22:08]
5. Netanyahu and Hamas: Symbiotic Dynamics
- Mutually Reinforcing Roles: Yehuda posits that Netanyahu's political strategy over 20 years relied on Hamas’s presence to avoid meaningful peace negotiations—a view substantiated by Netanyahu’s past policy statements.
- “It almost feels as though... it is necessary for Prime Minister Netanyahu to govern... to actually ensure there is a perpetual war against Hamas.” – Kurtzer [22:08]
- Koplow affirms Netanyahu’s earlier support for a divided Palestinian polity and describes a new shell game: equating Hamas and PA to avoid engagement with any Palestinian party.
[22:08–27:08]
6. The Far Right, Settlements, and the “Day After”
- Delaying Radical Visions: Netanyahu’s past tactics include enabling far-right rhetoric without executing their most extreme proposals, often leveraging US opposition as an excuse.
- However, Michael warns that Netanyahu’s current trajectory is more reckless, and the checks that once existed (especially from the US) are weaker than before.
- “The Prime Minister Netanyahu of September 2025 is not the same guy as three years ago, five years ago, ten years ago...he does things now that seem far more reckless to me.” – Koplow [29:37] [27:08–31:26]
7. Qatar’s Paradoxical Role
- Mediator, Funder, and Scapegoat: Qatar’s hosting of Hamas leadership, mediation for the US and Israel, and recent scandal (“Qatar Gate”) in Israel is dissected.
- Despite recurrent US and Israeli Jewish communal frustration, regionally, Qatar’s measured reaction to the airstrike is increasing Arab solidarity with Doha.
- “All of these other countries who don't particularly like the Qataris are now flocking to Qatar...to show solidarity.” – Koplow [34:37]
- Negative implications for Abraham Accords expansion and Israel’s regional standing. [31:26–36:35]
8. Disengagement’s Long Legacy
- Nuanced Lessons Over Black-and-White Broadsides: Michael argues the withdrawal’s failures lay in unilateral execution and subsequent policies, not the act itself.
- “If I were Ariel Sharon back in 2005, even knowing then what I know now, I would do it again now. I would do it very differently.” [38:34]
- The legacy is now shaping Israel’s increased willingness to use military force in neighboring countries and a hardening aversion to future territorial withdrawals—a trend Michael urges Israelis to rethink. [36:35–40:39]
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- On Israeli Support for Strikes on Hamas:
“You're not going to find Israelis who were shedding any tears over a strike like this.” — Michael Koplow [05:35] - On Strategic Plausibility:
“There are lots of reasons to kill these guys, but it hasn't made them back down.” — Koplow [07:54] - On US-Israel-Qatar Dynamics:
“No matter which version of these events is the correct one, it's extraordinary either way.” — Koplow [12:11] - On Netanyahu’s Political Motivation:
“He does not want to have to face accountability for it...as Long as the fighting is going on, we can't have any sort of commission, no accountability, no investigation. And it's a terrible thing...but I think that's where we are.” — Koplow [21:15] - History as Trap and Excuse:
“It almost feels as though...to actually ensure there is a perpetual war against Hamas.” — Kurtzer [22:08] - On Israeli Right’s Lessons from Disengagement:
“The lesson of all this is that we have to be in place, the IDF and maybe Israeli settlements, wherever that is...this new Israeli policy is we have to be on the ground beyond our borders, and it stems directly from this vision of what the 2005 disengagement led to.” — Koplow [39:15] - On Changing Netanyahu:
“He does things now that seem far more reckless to me, including the strike in Qatar, which again, nobody should shed a tear for any Hamas, anyone who was killed. But it's a reckless move that you wouldn't have seen from him before.” — Koplow [29:37]
Important Timestamps
- 01:06–04:00 — Yehuda’s reflection on the Gaza disengagement and present-day whiplash
- 05:31–08:54 — Koplow dissects Israeli strategy and public messaging
- 08:54–15:01 — The Trump administration’s regional strategy, confusion about US involvement, and Trump-Netanyahu relationship
- 16:28–22:08 — Netanyahu’s reluctance to end the war, distinction between victory and perpetuation
- 22:08–27:08 — The “symbiosis” of Netanyahu and Hamas, Netanyahu’s historical policy
- 27:08–31:26 — The far right’s influence, Netanyahu’s shifting constraints and risk-taking
- 31:26–36:35 — Qatar’s multiple roles, effects of Israeli policy, regional reactions
- 36:35–40:39 — What the disengagement means now, lessons learned (or not), and implications for policy
Summary for First-Time Listeners
This episode offers a deep, candid, and sometimes unsettling look at Israeli leadership’s strategy, the dysfunctional symbiosis between Netanyahu and his adversaries, and the complex web of US, Qatari, and regional interests animating the latest twists in the Gaza war. Michael Koplow and Yehuda Kurtzer expose the paradoxes and failures at the heart of twenty years of policy—making explicit what’s often left unsaid about power, accountability, and what it means to be trapped by history. Essential listening for anyone trying to understand why this conflict remains so intractable and what might lie ahead.