Impolitic with John Heilemann
Episode: Jon Favreau & Jon Lovett: The Year in Politics, Part I
Date: December 26, 2025
Episode Overview
In this first part of a two-part 2025 political year-in-review, John Heilemann sits down with Jon Favreau and Jon Lovett—Pod Save America co-hosts and former Obama advisors— to dissect the first year of Donald Trump’s second term. The conversation is candid, incisive, often biting, and reflects both the guests’ insider knowledge and their emotional reactions to the year’s political upheavals. Together, they explore how Trump’s return to office has unfolded, whether Democrats have risen to the moment, and what the prospects look like heading into 2026 and beyond.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. The "Golden Age" of America? Satire and Reality Check
- Opening Irony: Heilemann kicks things off by playing a clip of Trump declaring “the golden age of America begins right now.”
- Heilemann: “Promises made, promises kept, guys.” (03:44)
- Lovett (C): “Nailed it. Nailed it.” (03:46)
- The hosts openly mock this framing, reflecting on how far America has diverged from such lofty promises under Trump 2.0.
- Favreau: “Maybe he was talking about himself; like, he is in a golden age.” (04:58)
2. One Year into Trump 2.0: The Age of Hubris
- The group discusses how much of Trump’s political and policy losses in 2025 have been self-inflicted, rather than the result of effective Democratic opposition.
- Favreau: “…so much of the damage, both to the…country, the political damage, is just hubris.” (08:47)
- Lovett: “I think it’s like, I don’t know, 70, 80%...is self-inflicted.” (09:06)
- Democrats, they agree, have been reactive and occasionally smart but mostly lucky that Trump’s team “drank their own Kool-Aid” and overreached.
3. Democrats on the Defensive—and Occasional Wins
- Lovett points to moments where Democrats “put a line in the sand,” like fights on healthcare and lawful orders.
- Lovett: “One lesson of this year is fights, political fights that you choose become the nexus of any kind of attention.” (10:14)
- The problem, he notes, is that power is so lopsided that even Democrats’ wins are often fleeting or simply slow down the agenda.
4. Rage, Despair, and Horse in the Hospital
- The prevailing mood is a mix of anger, exhaustion, and dread, best captured in a John Mulaney stand-up metaphor: “there’s a horse loose in the hospital.”
- Favreau: “The creepiest days are when you don’t hear from the horse at all.” (13:01)
- This metaphor highlights how periods of quiet under Trumpism can be more nerve-wracking than the chaos, given the potential for sudden, unpredictable lurches.
5. Was Trump 2.0 Worse Than Expected?
- The hosts agree that, despite bracing themselves for disaster, the reality of Trump’s second term exceeded their worst fears—especially because of the increased competence and ruthlessness of those surrounding him.
- Lovett: “He’s self-radicalized because of the loss in 2020, but they had these plans waiting to come off the shelves.” (14:35)
6. Key Inflection Points: ICE Raids and January 6th Pardons
- Favreau identifies the Kilmar Abrego Garcia case (ICE deporting a legal resident to be tortured) as a wake-up call to the administration’s lawlessness and willingness to double down on acknowledged mistakes.
- Favreau: “They sent a man to a foreign prison. To be tortured, admitted it was a mistake, and then responded to that mistake by doubling down…” (17:19)
- Lovett points to Trump's blanket pardoning of January 6th insurrectionists as a moral nadir, signaling total impunity.
- Lovett: “…there’s no one stopping him. These are enablers. These are ideological fellow travelers.” (25:14)
7. The Problem of Republican Enablers
- All three express bafflement at Congressional Republicans’ willingness to submit entirely to Trumpism, speculating about careerism, fear, and a culture of rationalization.
- Favreau: “…in order to succeed in the Magaverse, you have to be in good standing with the boss… the human mind can just rationalize and justify anything.” (33:08)
8. Cabinet ‘Four Horsemen’ and Structural Dangers
- Pam Bondi (AG), Cash Patel (FBI chief), RFK Jr. (Health), and Pete Hegseth (DHS) are discussed as key Trump enforcers, but the real danger, they agree, is the absence of any independent check on executive power.
- Lovett: “A politicized Department of Justice… is what enables everything else.” (37:10)
- Favreau: “The rule in this second Trump term has been no independent power centers…” (40:07)
9. How Trump's Extremism Breeds Incompetence and Resistance
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The authoritarian centralization of power breeds both more egregious overreach and greater internal pushback—leaks, resignations, short circuits that have slowed the agenda.
- Lovett: “Those little short circuits, those like Democratic short circuits in courts and stories and leaks…” (43:11)
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Trump's declining popularity increases these internal fractures.
10. Why Trump’s Support Is Receding Among ‘Normal People’
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Major blows to Trump's popularity include the ICE raids (gruesomely documented on social media and local TV) and police clashing with ICE agents—a direct, visceral wedge between local authority figures and federal overreach.
- Favreau: “What they are seeing from the Trump administration all the time are these ICE raids and these masked agents and it’s just getting worse… I think that has…pushed people back the other way.” (46:14)
- Heilemann: ”There’s this whole sub genre in social media video now that’s of cops in New York City, like, getting in the way of the ICE guys…” (47:36)
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Trump’s strength as an “antagonist” is undermined when he governs; his efforts to control the news cycle backfire as the focus moves away from the economy to more divisive, less popular issues.
- Lovett: “Trump is a better antagonist than protagonist. He is better as a figure critiquing the government from the outside.” (48:23)
11. Is Trump Really a Lame Duck? The Third Term Question
- Despite claims of accepting constitutional term limits, no one on the panel believes Trump will quietly leave office in 2029.
- Favreau: “…the thing that I've always been worried about is less that Donald Trump stays in office and more that in the transition, if it is a close election, we go back to a 2021 situation…” (53:27)
- Lovett raises the real possibility of the powers of the state being used to keep Democrats out of office, rather than Trump simply trying to cling to power personally.
12. Who is the Next to Lead the GOP? J.D. Vance, Don Jr., or Tucker?
- A playful but pointed debate over whether J.D. Vance, Don Jr., or even Tucker Carlson is most likely to inherit the MAGA mantle. Consensus veers toward Vance, but with skepticism about his broad appeal:
- Favreau: “Is he the most likely Republican nominee? Yes, most likely.” (55:23)
- Heilemann: “If I had to pick the most likely next Republican nominee, I’d say one of the members of the Trump family, probably Don Jr.” (55:34)
The State of the Democratic Party
1. Skepticism About the 'Deep Bench'
- There’s a stark disconnect between Democratic elites’ claims of a strong “bench” and grassroots anxiety that there’s no obvious future leader.
- Favreau: “We have a deep bench in the terms that there's a lot of people on it, it's definitely deep… but no one who is saying anything that we all haven't heard a million times over the last 10 years.” (61:48)
2. Vision Vacuum and Policy Malaise
- Lovett and Favreau contrast the current Democratic Party’s indecision with the era of Bill Clinton (center vision), Barack Obama (change), and the current left (ambitious but not mainstream).
- Lovett: “That is a difference…there was technocratic, it was neoliberal… it was a vision. If you interviewed Bill Clinton… his worldview would lead to an answer. And there just is not that kind of thoughtful policy post Trump.” (65:37)
- They stress the need for a visionary, thematic narrative that matches the scale of 21st-century challenges (AI, economic dislocation, loneliness).
3. Who Advanced in 2025? Whither Gavin Newsom?
- Newsom is seen as the de facto front-runner, skilled at pugilism but lacking a unifying “driving dream.”
- Heilemann: “I've never heard Gavin… have that… driving dream piece.” (71:33)
- Other names mentioned as having potential for big-picture vision: AOC, Pete Buttigieg, Ruben Gallego, Josh Shapiro, JB Pritzker.
- Lovett: “You can imagine AOC getting there rhetorically, 100%. And you can imagine Pete Buttigieg potentially getting there.” (74:40)
- What’s missing, for all: an animating, original vision linking emotional resonance and policy detail.
4. What Moves and Inspires?
- Final segment: each guest shares something in pop culture or literature that helped them through a tough year.
- Favreau: “Pluribus has been fascinating. Incredible. So good.” (76:31)
- Lovett: “Kazuo Ishiguro’s… An Artist of the Floating World… a beautiful story about someone looking… back at a changing Japan…” (77:16)
- Banter about the need for both art and escapism amid the political storm: “Salt Lake Housewives” as less pretentious pick.
Notable Quotes & Moments
- On the Republican Party:
- Favreau: “The human mind can just rationalize and justify anything. And I think all of these Republicans from Susie Wiles and the White House on down have been rationalizing and justifying for like the last decade.” (33:08)
- On Trump's Second Spell:
- Lovett: “Clown with a gun. The gun doesn’t make him any less of a clown, and the fact he’s a clown doesn’t make him any less dangerous because he’s got the gun.” (21:23)
- On Democratic Malaise:
- Lovett: “A lot of this sort of where’s the people? What are they going to say? Are we going to win all of that? I do think because there’s an alarm is not going off.” (66:58)
- On Visionary Leadership:
- Favreau: “…winning campaigns on the presidential level for Democrats have been visions that go beyond just how we fix the economy and to how we treat each other, how we live with one another, how we make meaning in this country.” (68:14)
- On the Dangers Ahead:
- Lovett: “He has no patience for people that want to indulge it. I can’t stand the corny capitalism. I can’t stand all these supplicants… I can’t stand the universities… that have been complicit at this moment.” (71:11)
Timestamps for Key Segments
- Trump’s “Golden Age” Speech and Satire: 03:05–05:11
- Damage Assessment: Trump Self-Inflicted vs. Democratic Action: 08:47–09:44
- “Horse in the Hospital” Extended Metaphor: 12:23–13:33
- Was 2025 Worse Than Expected? 14:21–15:14
- Ice Raids, Kilmar Abrego Garcia, and Pivotal Moments: 17:08–19:07
- January 6th Pardons as Moral Collapse: 25:14–27:44
- Republicans’ Enabling and Rationalization: 31:32–33:08
- The Four Horsemen (Bondi, Patel, RFK Jr., Hegseth): 37:10–40:34
- Trump as Protagonist/Antagonist, Why Support is Falling: 47:36–48:45
- Trump’s Lame Duck Status and 3rd Term Ambiguity: 50:22–54:38
- GOP 2028: Vance, Don Jr., or Tucker? 55:02–57:43
- Democratic Bench, Vision Vacuum, and What’s Needed for 2028: 61:05–69:01
- Gavin Newsom, the Fight for a Vision, and Presidential Potential: 71:16–75:25
- Recommendations: Pop Culture Therapy for 2025: 76:31–78:27
Episode Tone & Style
- The conversation is irreverent, profane at times (“dumb fucking horse”; “merciful, vapid, ignorant, mean spirited egotist”), and frequently self-deprecating. The guests move fluidly from policy analysis to gallows humor, classic inside-DC banter, and cultural references (from Mulaney to Pluribus to Ishiguro).
- The hosts’ rapport and shared history allow for both broad strategic takes and granular, emotionally honest reflections—a blend that makes the show engaging for both political junkies and normies alike.