Podcast Summary: "Saul Perlmutter: The Accelerating Universe, Doubt as a Superpower and the Science of Collaboration"
In Good Company with Nicolai Tangen — December 24, 2025
Episode Overview
In this episode, Nicolai Tangen, CEO of Norges Bank Investment Management, is joined by Nobel Prize-winning physicist Saul Perlmutter. Together, they explore how the scientific method and "Third Millennium Thinking" can help address humanity’s most pressing challenges. They discuss the art of productive doubt, the value of humility and collaboration, countering confirmation bias, and parallels between team science and other group endeavors. Perlmutter also shares insights from his career, including his discovery of the accelerating universe and thoughts on teaching critical thinking in an age of uncertainty.
Main Themes and Key Discussion Points
1. Third Millennium Thinking & Applying Scientific Methods
[00:43 – 03:33]
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Perlmutter introduces "Third Millennium Thinking" as a practical mindset, harnessing elements of scientific culture—probabilistic reasoning, error-checking, humility, and group problem-solving—for societal challenges.
-
Quote:
"We live at an incredible moment in history... the first generations on this planet who have the ability to solve planetary sized problems."
— Saul Perlmutter [01:50] -
Key point: Humanity already possesses many tools to solve global problems (pandemics, hunger, climate change), but struggles with communication and collaboration.
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The “leftover problem” is learning to talk and work things out together.
2. Probabilistic Thinking: Embracing Uncertainty
[03:33 – 05:45]
- Scientific method isn’t just hypothesis testing; it’s about thinking probabilistically.
- Discusses how day-to-day and group decisions would be improved if people viewed knowledge and arguments as degrees of likelihood, not certainties.
- Quote:
"What you really want is this funny balance between being very humble and very willing to be wrong, and yet very can-do."
— Saul Perlmutter [11:43]
3. Confident Humility vs. Collective Arrogance
[05:45 – 12:29]
- The paradox: Great science needs individual humility (admitting mistakes), but also collective arrogance (believing hard problems can be solved).
- Science thrives by exposing work to scrutiny and seeking disagreement, but this is difficult outside structured environments.
- Quote:
"That ability to be constantly questioning... it sounds like a weakness, but that's where our superpower lies."
— Saul Perlmutter [06:54]
4. The Power and Pitfalls of Teams
[12:29 – 16:45]
- Productive teams combine diverse skills and respectful debate with persistence.
- Science is increasingly a collaborative activity, with Nobel Prizes now often awarded to teams.
- Challenges include managing independence of thought versus group consensus.
- Insightful parallel: Chamber music as a model for collaboration—each member listens, adapts, and contributes.
5. Confirmation Bias and Blind Analysis
[16:45 – 21:42]
- Discusses the deep problem of confirmation bias—seeking information that supports existing beliefs and ignoring contrary evidence.
- Describes "blind analysis," a scientific practice where results are concealed until all errors are checked, to counteract bias.
- Notable anecdote: The tense, dramatic moment when a student “unblinds” a year’s worth of data—echoes scientific objectivity at work.
- Quote:
"There's a real bias towards having graphs come out in papers that are just what the scientist was expecting to get..."
— Saul Perlmutter [18:35]
6. Group Decision-Making: From Investment to the Supreme Court
[21:42 – 28:42]
- Discusses best practices for group decision-making:
- Gather independent input before discussion to avoid "herd thinking".
- Scenario planning: Explore various possible futures to robustly test solutions.
- Lively exchange on judicial decision-making in Norway vs. Sweden: experienced judge speaks first versus youngest, impacting disagreement rates.
- Quote:
"If they've shared too much, then you don't get the independent comparisons that you can often find the errors with."
— Saul Perlmutter [14:18]
7. Productive Disagreement & Innovation
[28:42 – 30:57]
- Competition between groups stimulates deeper critical thinking and error-finding.
- Major scientific (and investment) breakthroughs often arise from recognizing what others have missed—a key argument for cultivating dissent.
- Quote:
"People who do well in the sciences usually are doing well because they come up with something that nobody else has seen."
— Saul Perlmutter [30:30]
8. Uncertainty, Pattern Recognition, and Gut Instinct
[31:00 – 35:48]
- Humans both love and fear uncertainty; science seeks to balance caution with curiosity.
- Gut feelings and pattern recognition have their place in science, but must be checked by rational analysis.
- Comparison to chess grandmaster Magnus Carlsen’s approach—using intuition to narrow choices, then analyzing them deeply.
9. Teaching Critical (Scientific) Thinking
[35:48 – 38:27]
- Perlmutter co-developed a cross-disciplinary course at Berkeley on scientific thinking, now adopted at other top universities.
- Focus on practical tools, activities, and group exercises to help people internalize critical thinking patterns.
- Aspires to see such training as foundational worldwide.
- Quote:
"These are a whole set of other thinking tools that feel like they're very important in this technological, scientific world."
— Saul Perlmutter [37:43]
10. Family, Interdisciplinary Influence, and AI
[38:27 – 42:28]
- Perlmutter’s upbringing (engineering father, social work professor mother, anthropologist spouse) shaped his collaborative mindset.
- On AI: Like calculators, AI can help or hinder thinking. Key is to understand what it enables and where it may produce overconfidence.
- Quote:
"The tricky thing about AI is that it can give the impression that you've actually learned the basics before you really have..."
— Saul Perlmutter [39:57]
11. Cosmology, the Expanding Universe & Dark Energy
[42:28 – 54:33]
- Explains the difference between astrophysics (study of objects in the sky) and cosmology (study of the universe’s evolution and structure).
- Shares how the discovery that the universe's expansion is accelerating (not slowing) revolutionized physics, leading to the concept of "dark energy."
- Details the long, uncertain, and highly competitive process that led to the Nobel-winning result—including anecdotal moments of racing rival teams, adversity, and collaboration.
- Quote:
"We started the project... in '87... we thought it was going to be a hard project... At the end of three years, we had zero supernovae, not thirty."
— Saul Perlmutter [50:39]
12. The Nature of Objective Truth
[55:16 – 56:50]
- Argues that belief in an objective reality is essential for scientific progress, even if our knowledge is always an approximation.
- Quote:
"It's going to do its thing whether we get it or not. And our models are going to be not quite right... But at the same time, I think we make progress because we all believe that it's there no matter what we think."
— Saul Perlmutter [55:36]
13. Youth, Fresh Ideas, and Facing the Future
[57:40 – 60:19]
- Value of youth: Newcomers aren’t stuck with old mistakes, challenge accepted wisdom, and drive progress.
- Advice to young people:
"Don't get turned off by all the doom and gloom you might be hearing... Those are the challenges that we can deal with... So you should jump in and join and try to bring the elders with you."
— Saul Perlmutter [59:04–60:19]
Notable Moments & Quotes with Timestamps
- On Probabilistic Thinking:
"It's not black and white, yes or no. This one I'm going to bet 90% on, but this one I'm only giving 70%." [03:36] - The Paradox of Science Culture:
"That ability to be constantly questioning... that's where our superpower lies." [06:54] - Blind Analysis & Confirmation Bias:
"There's a real bias towards having graphs come out in papers that are just what the scientist was expecting to get." [18:35] - On Scientific Rivalry:
"At the end, the two teams came up with the same result and announced it within weeks of each other... a very warm outcome in the end." [54:33] - On Truth:
"The objective truth of the world is actually, I think, what provides the link between our different projects." [55:16] - Advice to Youth:
"This is your moment... Don't get turned off by all the doom and gloom... you should jump in and join and try to bring the elders with you." [59:04–60:19]
Timestamps of Key Segments
- 00:43 – Introduction to Third Millennium Thinking
- 05:50 – Individual humility and collective arrogance
- 07:52 – Societal loss of productive disagreement
- 15:05 – Chamber music as a metaphor for teamwork
- 16:45 – Blind analysis and confirmation bias
- 21:42 – Collaborative investment and group decision process
- 28:42 – Incentivizing disagreement and error-finding
- 31:00 – Embracing uncertainty
- 35:48 – Teaching scientific thinking
- 43:14 – Cosmologist vs. astrophysicist
- 47:27 – Infinite universe and expansion
- 50:39 – The long road to Nobel-winning discovery
- 54:33 – Rival teams and shared prize
- 55:16 – Is there objective truth?
- 59:04 – Advice for young scientists and citizens
Tone & Style
The tone is conversational yet intellectually rigorous—curious, humble, and optimistic. Nicolai Tangen brings an engaging, sometimes playful interview style while Saul Perlmutter responds with warmth, humility, and thoughtful reflections grounded in long experience.
In Summary
Saul Perlmutter advocates for a blending of humility, doubt, and boldness—in science and in life. He makes a compelling case for adopting scientific thinking not just in labs, but in boardrooms, courts, and daily decisions. The episode is a rich, accessible tour of big ideas: how to get groups to think better, why disagreement is valuable, and why the future—whether faced by scientists, investors, or citizens—belongs to those who can learn together, adapt, and persist.