Podcast Summary: In Good Faith With Philip DeFranco

Episode: The AI Bubble, Buying Gold, & Investing With Plain Bagel
Date: December 4, 2025
Host: Philip DeFranco
Guest: Richard Coffin (“The Plain Bagel”), CFA & Finance Educator

Episode Overview

This week, Philip DeFranco welcomes Richard Coffin, better known online as The Plain Bagel, for a nuanced, info-packed conversation dissecting the current state of the U.S. and global economy, AI hype, the impact of tariffs, the wisdom of buying gold, investment mistakes, and the double-edged sword of “finfluencer” culture. They round out with thoughtful discussions on corruption's economic impact and how big tech, government, and market forces are shaping an uncertain future.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Are We in a U.S. Recession? (00:45–05:01)

• Richard’s Analysis: Official data is unclear due to recent government shutdowns hampering economic data collection. While GDP was recently strong, growth is concentrated in sectors like AI, and consumer sentiment, especially among lower-middle classes, is bleak.
• K-Shaped Economy: “If you look at the broad figures, things seem to be pretty good. But when you segment based on income, you see...much lower spending in sort of the lower income brackets.” (03:27, Richard Coffin)
• Holiday Spending as an Indicator: Higher income groups keep spending, while middle/lower earners are pulling back. Consumer confidence surveys show rising anxiety despite headline GDP growth.

What Would Ease Economic Anxiety? (05:01–09:13)

• Geopolitical Tensions & Trade Barriers: Uncertainty from ongoing U.S./China/Japan trade disputes and upcoming elections is feeding instability. Easing tariffs would spark a short-term “boom,” but inflation, especially “sticky” prices, would remain a challenge.
• Federal Reserve’s Balancing Act: Jerome Powell and successors face a tricky trade-off between fighting inflation and supporting output and employment.
  • “The central bank is easing up...to try and bolster the economy...but it’s going to come at that consequence of higher inflation.” (06:53, Richard Coffin)
• Trump's Fed Appointments: Richard is cautiously optimistic that institutional safeguards will temper inexperience. But transitions pose risk.

Inflation, Tariffs, and ‘Sticky’ Prices (09:18–13:26)

• Sector Disparities: Apparel and electronics—where the U.S. lost domestic production—are hardest hit by tariffs. Imports do not impact all industries equally.
• Tariff Impacts: Long-term, tariffs may add 1-2% to inflation—a “crude” but significant extra burden.
  • “When you consider that inflation is targeted at 2%...that’s nearly double the rate.” (12:35, Richard Coffin)
• Business Uncertainty: Unpredictability around future tariffs makes it almost impossible for businesses (especially those building infrastructure) to plan.

Gold, De-Dollarization, and Safe Havens (16:14–23:27)

• Surging Demand for Gold: Recent gold price spikes are largely retail-driven and fueled by global central banks (esp. China), but U.S. remains the largest reserve holder and is not threatened in the short term.
  • “Really the only reason people buy gold is because of its history.” (16:26, Richard Coffin)
  • “If you owe someone a trillion U.S. Dollars, you’re going to have demand for U.S. Dollars until that money is paid back.” (19:08, Richard Coffin)
• The Dollar’s Role: “There is a slow erosion of the dollar’s dominance...but I don’t even know if in our lifetimes we’ll see a meaningful shift.” (22:50, Richard Coffin)
• Bitcoin & China: Both are distant threats to U.S. dollar dominance—Bitcoin lacks use as actual money; China's currency is tightly controlled.

Trump, The Fed, and Rate Speculation (24:07–26:11)

• Fed Independence: Despite Trump’s plans, Richard is hopeful institutional norms prevent extreme moves like zero rates or chaotic policy swings.
  • “I think it’s a bit of both...You can’t do stuff without consequence when it comes to the U.S. dollar.” (24:54, Richard Coffin)

Investment Mistakes & Lessons (27:23–30:53)

• Candid Admissions:
  • Philip: Lost big betting on Peloton during the pandemic.
  • Richard: Lost 50%+ on Walgreens early in his career—overconfident in legacy and “cheap” valuations without accounting for fundamental margin risks. “History isn’t a guarantee of future performance.” (29:35, Richard Coffin)

The Epidemic of Finance Influencers (Finfluencers) (30:53–36:21)

• Mixed Blessing: Finfluencer content genuinely inspires young people to start investing (per CFA Institute research), but algorithms reward “get rich quick” pitches or doomsaying.
  • “The algorithms really incentivize the get rich quick stuff…” (32:07, Richard Coffin)
• Dangerous “Expert” Claims: Vast majority of advice comes with little/no disclosure of background or conflicts of interest.
• “Financial Nihilism”: Social media has fostered a view that markets are a casino for the masses—exacerbated by the meme stock/crypto boom.

Historical Data, Investing Basics, and “Financial Nihilism” (36:21–43:01)

• Compounding Still Works: Consistency and prudent investing, even at mediocre returns, can yield vast long-term wealth (see: $500/mo invested at 6% for 40 years ≈ $1M).
  • “It’s based on very real frustrations...but you don’t need remarkable returns for investing to be solid.” (37:22, Richard Coffin)
• Diversification Needed: S&P 500 is not true “passive” or global diversification—current high valuations suggest caution. “The S&P 500 isn’t really a passive investment…about 40%...now is about 10 companies.” (40:50, Richard Coffin)

Is There an AI Bubble? (44:00–48:24)

• Signs Point to “Yes, But…”: “Most fund managers believe we’re in a bubble. Sam Altman believes we’re in a bubble. Except for the Nvidia CEO.” (44:25, Richard Coffin)
  • Bubble signals are present, BUT: not as extreme as dot-com in leverage or valuation multiples; big, cash-rich firms are driving this—potential for a long runway.
• Don’t Count on Timing: Hard to know “what inning” we’re in. “It can be very dangerous to sit on the sidelines while things play out, especially when it comes to a revolutionary technology.” (45:29, Richard Coffin)

The Real Impact of AI on Jobs, Companies, and the Power Grid (49:19–56:57)

• Job Displacement is Coming, Slowly: Tech revolutions rarely benefit workers equally (“AI is a prediction model, not a judgment model.” 51:03).
• AI Adoption is In Early Stages: So far, most companies are testing AI and few see profits; regulators (in Canada) are examining AI’s impact on actual human work.
  • “It’s not going to be a flip of the switch where all of a sudden, everyone loses their job to robots.” (52:13, Richard Coffin)
• Energy is a Bottleneck: “A nuclear powerplant takes 10 years to build.” (54:46) The U.S. lags in new energy infrastructure while chip cycle obsolescence is accelerating, raising costs for AI data centers.

Public-Private Partnerships: U.S. Government Investing in Intel (57:03–59:09)

• Unusual, but Not Unheard Of: Governments regularly prop up “strategic” industries. Intel isn’t a global leader, but has U.S. ops.
• Potential Risk: Heavy government investment (“propping up”) could feed inefficiency and stoke the bubble—danger if it becomes the norm.

Bubble Investing: Go ‘Full Burry’ or Sit Out? (60:21–62:58)

• Richard’s View: He won’t short the AI sector, but is “more selective” and prefers to avoid sectors with tons of “zero profit companies” and high burn rates.
  • “A lot of the burn rate of companies like OpenAI is astronomical…these companies are making promises for trillions of dollars of buildout.” (61:45)

Valuation, Meme Stocks, and Community Premiums (63:41–67:52)

• Tesla as Data/AI Company: Valuation is fueled by retail belief in AI/data potential, not just car sales. Other “community premium” stocks (GameStop, Palantir) similarly defy analyst models.
• Valuation Still Matters: “No matter how the company performs, what you bought it at can dictate how you see your money grow.” (67:29, Richard Coffin)

Corruption & the Economy: America as a Case Study (68:45–77:59)

• Corruption’s Double-Edged Sword: “Grease the wheels” theory argues some corruption can help in chaotic/war-torn states, but most evidence shows long-term damage: wasted resources, reduced foreign investment, greater inequality, and inflation.
  • “There’s a 17% long term impact on GDP per capita...” (71:40, Richard Coffin)
• American Example: U.S. matters because of its global influence. Recent high-profile pardons (Binance, fraudsters) may seem pro-business, but erode faith in rule of law and fuel inequality/disenfranchisement.
  • “You can’t have over half your population be entirely disenfranchised...and expect things will operate normally.” (75:33)

The Anxiety of Institutional Decay and Global Perception (77:59–79:41)

• Uncertainty Ahead: Current U.S. institutional checks are still functioning—for now—but ongoing challenges (tariffs, court battles, political pressure) have everyone holding their breath, including U.S. allies.
  • “People are very anxious...the Trump administration is taking advantage of very quick actions to circumvent very slow systems. But over time, the test...will be how those things play out over the long term.” (77:32, Richard Coffin)
• Influence Games: Companies like Meta/JP Morgan adapting to new realities, dealing with the trade-offs between profit and political appeasement.
  • “It’d be amazing to be behind the closed doors of the discussions that happen between a Mark Zuckerberg and Trump…” (78:40)

Wrapping Up: Looking Ahead to 2026 (79:41–80:12)

• Invitation for a Yearly Check-In: Philip suggests a recurring “state of the economy” retrospective: “We’ll do like the Billie Eilish thing…every year we come back and see how right or wrong things were.” (79:56)

Notable Quotes

• On Data Limitations: “We don’t have all the data…The last print was very strong. But…GDP growth…has been attributed to just AI spending and capex build out.” (01:00, Richard Coffin)
• On Gold & Safe Havens: “Really the only reason people buy gold is because of its history.” (16:26, Richard Coffin)
• On the Dollar’s Future: “There’s going to be demand for U.S. Dollars for a very long period of time.” (19:08, Richard Coffin)
• On AI Hype: “Most fund managers believe we’re in a bubble. Sam Altman believes we’re in a bubble…Except for the Nvidia CEO.” (44:25, Richard Coffin)
• Investing Wisdom: “History isn’t a guarantee of future performance.” (29:35, Richard Coffin)
• On Tech Valuations: “Stocks do sort of command a community premium, which sounds silly to say.” (64:54, Richard Coffin)
• On Institutional Stability: “Current U.S. institutional checks are still functioning—for now—but ongoing challenges...have everyone holding their breath, including U.S. allies.” (77:32, paraphrased for flow)
• On Corruption: “There can be that short-term distorted impact…But long-term...corruption tends to be bad.” (75:49, Richard Coffin)

Timestamps of Important Segments

• [00:45–05:01] Recession debate, K-shaped recovery, GDP caveats
• [09:13–13:26] Tariffs and inflation by sector
• [16:14–23:27] Gold, dollar supremacy, de-dollarization myths
• [27:23–30:53] Guest & host share biggest investing mistakes
• [30:53–36:21] Rise (and dangers) of finance influencers
• [44:00–48:24] AI bubble—parallels, differences with dot-com
• [49:19–56:57] AI jobs impact, energy as bottleneck
• [68:45–77:59] Corruption’s macroeconomic risks, American case study

Tone & Style

• Approachable and direct, with Richard offering measured, statistics-backed perspectives and Philip providing relatable “everyman” reactions and humor.
• Richard is careful to share caveats before speculating; Philip presses for gut reactions and practical “takeaways.”
• Memorable for its blend of technical detail and candid admissions (“Here’s my biggest L...”).

For Listeners Short on Time...

If you only listen to a few sections:

• 00:45–05:01 for the recession/AI-driven GDP debate,
• 16:14–23:27 for the future of gold and the dollar,
• 44:00–48:24 for the nuanced breakdown of the AI bubble,
• 68:45–77:59 for a fascinating, research-backed analysis of corruption and institutional decay.

Summarized and structured to maximize value for those who want the highlights, key arguments, and both practical and philosophical takeaways from an expertly-guided deep-dive into today’s economic, tech, and policy dilemmas.